2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[Doctor MJ]

The Ringer polled 10 of their NBA writers and it's 9-1 for Jokic as deserving of the MVP.

https://www.theringer.com/2025/03/11/nba/nba-mvp-race-odds-nikola-jokic-shai-gilgeous-alexander-voting

Here's a sample:

This is a pretty flawed argument though, there is only so much any player can lift a team which is already good without him. Jokic wouldn't be making a projected 50 wins swing if the Nuggets had an actual backup centre and a solid bench in general either. The raw plus/minus on /off swing between Jokic and SGA is quite close. SGA is elevating a decent team to an all-time great which for me is just as an impressive as Jokic elevating a bad team into a very good one. Both would be deserved MVPs in my book.

Yeah, to put in my own words:

They're approach puts an emphasis on getting the team passed the 0-point threshold - getting them from losing to winning. This is not completely absurd, but:

1. I'm someone who tends to be more interested in your ability to add lift to better teams compared to adding lift to worse teams. In comparison to a stat like RAPM, this means I'm going to see RAPM as overrating the value of lifting bad teams compared to what I would.

How would this Ringer method do compared to RAPM? It's going to favor the middle brow specifically. It's going to favor the guy who move a -5 team to +5 more so than -10 to 0 or 0 to +10. And when you see the numbers Ringer is talking about, you can see that that favoritism of the middle brow is extreme on a level that just doesn't fit with reality. No player is making their team 50 wins better, and the idea that he'd have 250% of the value of another guy with comparable RAPM is pretty crazy.

2. I actually do like looking at what I call OnWins - games where a player has a positive +/-. What does that data say about these two guys?

OnWins:

SGA 54 (compared to 53 OKC wins)
Jokic 40 (compared to 42 Denver wins)

And for comparison, here's how their teammates look:

Wiggins 45
Dort 44
Braun 43
JDub 42
Porter 42

So yeah, I'd say SGA actually has greater separation on a metric like this that kind has the same focus on the Ringer method, but doesn't produce the same absurd data as theirs does.

Here's a little bit more complicated stat the Waffl - W & OffLoss - which I can't quickly make a leaderboard for but will do for our two protagonists:

SGA 30
Jokic 24

So basically if you're looking for specific games where the time where the player was on the court led to a win despite them not winning when he's off the floor, Shai's got the advantage there still.

None of this is intended as proof that Jokic should not be the MVP - I think he's got a great case - but no, I'm not that impressed by the Ringer logic.

[Mrakar]

The Ringer polled 10 of their NBA writers and it's 9-1 for Jokic as deserving of the MVP.

https://www.theringer.com/2025/03/11/nba/nba-mvp-race-odds-nikola-jokic-shai-gilgeous-alexander-voting

Here's a sample:

That logic is so flawed though, 50 games! They're going to win about 52 games this year, so we're saying they'd have gone 2-80 without him? That's not remotely true

You didnt read it correctly, thats 50 wins more with him on then with him off the court. They have 52 wins with him on and of the court. With him on the court they would be like 67 win team and without him 17 win.
Ofc its a bit exaggerated, but as someone who watches the Nuggets all the time, i can say it is not far off. They sometimes look like g-league team without him out there...

[Castle Black]

Insane.

[CobraCommander]

Insane.

That’s a good hand- but

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Western conf NBA's Player of the Week for Week 20.

Gilgeous Alexander averaged 44.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists as the Oklahoma City Thunder went 4-0



These guys are video game territory- Only Jokic can stop SGA from taking that MVP

People need to recognize that SGA has taken the leap - team winning and he balling - - extreme winning and extreme personal performances and clearly a beloved leader on his squad - the aura lol



The kids love SGA… the old heads on RealGM don’t know how this dudes is being praised on the aau circuit by the kids-

[MrPainfulTruth]

MVP fatigue isn't the reason he won't be getting it. the reason is that over the course of the season, SGA performed more constantly at a higher level and lifted OKC to a higher standing.

like imagine SGA not getting it. what more do you want him to do. score 40 ppg and win 75 games? is that the standard because he isn't a center and can't pick up tripple doubles as easily?

1. More wins => Lazy argument. We saw what team surrounds him in those last two games.
2. He has not been individually better. He wasnt even close to what Jokic did. Hes an amazing player nontheless but your claim is ridiculous.
3. If it is so easy for centers to pick up stats, show us all the others who do or did it? Because, you know, Jokic just recorded a double triple double, the first in the history of the league. But hey, hes a center so i guess it was easy...

I'm sure the kings copied some handoff action which lead to Sabonis averaging 19/14/8 last season. Hell, even sixers tried doing some of it, which had Embiid averaging 5.6 in last season compared to his 4.2 the season before. Also, I'm not saying it's easy for a center to pickup stats, but a good center is expected to/will pick up rebounds, as he is playing closer to the basket.

Also, I have said it before, but wins are the ultimate proof of VALUE, we don't have the truth machine or the ultimate advanced stats but chances are, in 50 to 100 years, whatever kinda stats we have will tell us that the top players on the top teams brought a lot of value to their teams

You literally said Jokic as a center picks up stats "easily".

And Jokic isnt hunting stats, or creating empty stats. He actually passes guys open. He gets those contested rebounds, not free ones. We see it every game. To pretend he is manufacturing empty stats is vicious and hateful lieing.

And no, wins are not "the ultimate proof of value". No single player, no matter how talented, ever won on his own. If SGA played on the nuggets, i'm convinced their record would be a lot worse than it is with Jokic. Would you still say the same? Why are you not voting for Donovan Mitchell, the best player on the best team, if "winning is the ultimate proof of value"?

[Exp0sed]

Insane.

That’s a good hand- but

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Western conf NBA's Player of the Week for Week 20.

Gilgeous Alexander averaged 44.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists as the Oklahoma City Thunder went 4-0



These guys are video game territory- Only Jokic can stop SGA from taking that MVP

People need to recognize that SGA has taken the leap - team winning and he balling - - extreme winning and extreme personal performances and clearly a beloved leader on his squad - the aura lol



The kids love SGA… the old heads on RealGM don’t know how this dudes is being praised on the aau circuit by the kids-

I agree, I think he's by far the most marketable superstar in the league (even if he is Canadian ). if the NBA was looking for it's next "face of the league" - SGA is it, for sure. the only obstacle is him playing in a very small market but once he gets over the hump and wins a chip, him being in a small market wouldn't matter anymore

he'll get there, I have no doubt. a good chance to do it this year but even if not, the Thunder are incredibely stacked with talent and assets, they're a lock to be a multiple time championship core imo

[MrPainfulTruth]

IMHO, and this is no disrespect to Jokic, but there should be a max limit of how many MVPs you've won. Three is a good max number, otherwise you're limiting other deserving candidates. To many variables at play that makes thing unfairly sphincter tight. With that said, I would like to see SGA win it this year.

My man, no disrespect to you, but this is honestly an awful take you might want to revisit or even delete.

[Exp0sed]

And no, wins are not "the ultimate proof of value". No single player, no matter how talented, ever won on his own. If SGA played on the nuggets, i'm convinced their record would be a lot worse than it is with Jokic. Would you still say the same? Why are you not voting for Donovan Mitchell, the best player on the best team, if "winning is the ultimate proof of value"?

ur right about almost everything, Jokic is the anti stat-padder if anything but saying your'e convinced their record would be "a lot worse" is a huge hyperbole. OKC has a better cast imo but SGA would hugely elevate any team. I do think Jokic elevates a bit more but "a lot worse" is a huge stretch and there's absoultely nothing that supports that notion, on the contrary, every available data we have tells us that the two are on a similar tier in terms of elevating their respective teams

[MoneyTalks41890]

I really do think it’s worth underscoring just how far ahead these two are of everyone else. This is actual EPM.

[CobraCommander]

Insane.

That’s a good hand- but

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Western conf NBA's Player of the Week for Week 20.

Gilgeous Alexander averaged 44.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists as the Oklahoma City Thunder went 4-0



These guys are video game territory- Only Jokic can stop SGA from taking that MVP

People need to recognize that SGA has taken the leap - team winning and he balling - - extreme winning and extreme personal performances and clearly a beloved leader on his squad - the aura lol



The kids love SGA… the old heads on RealGM don’t know how this dudes is being praised on the aau circuit by the kids-

I agree, I think he's by far the most marketable superstar in the league (even if he is Canadian ). if the NBA was looking for it's next "face of the league" - SGA is it, for sure. the only obstacle is him playing in a very small market but once he gets over the hump and wins a chip, him being in a small market wouldn't matter anymore

he'll get there, I have no doubt. a good chance to do it this year but even if not, the Thunder are incredibely stacked with talent and assets, they're a lock to be a multiple time championship core imo

Yeah - I agree - older people don’t know who he is cause he doesn’t make news for dumb stuff and doesn’t Dunk on people. Never mean mugs anyone - kinda too much like Kawhi… except if you see his team interviews it’s insane- sometimes he leads the interview but someone else goes off he is in the crowd “fan boying” his teammate and letting his teammate get the glory - honestly it’s something special about the level of confidence and humility it takes to do that…


it could come from the fact that his cousin probably still can beat him one on one on occasion in the driveway - or it could come from the fact that he ain’t even the only nba player in his immediate family- it’s like if you at Harvard but your cousin at Yale you can’t really flex that hard

[kazyv]

1. More wins => Lazy argument. We saw what team surrounds him in those last two games.
2. He has not been individually better. He wasnt even close to what Jokic did. Hes an amazing player nontheless but your claim is ridiculous.
3. If it is so easy for centers to pick up stats, show us all the others who do or did it? Because, you know, Jokic just recorded a double triple double, the first in the history of the league. But hey, hes a center so i guess it was easy...

I'm sure the kings copied some handoff action which lead to Sabonis averaging 19/14/8 last season. Hell, even sixers tried doing some of it, which had Embiid averaging 5.6 in last season compared to his 4.2 the season before. Also, I'm not saying it's easy for a center to pickup stats, but a good center is expected to/will pick up rebounds, as he is playing closer to the basket.

Also, I have said it before, but wins are the ultimate proof of VALUE, we don't have the truth machine or the ultimate advanced stats but chances are, in 50 to 100 years, whatever kinda stats we have will tell us that the top players on the top teams brought a lot of value to their teams

You [b]literally said Jokic as a center picks up stats "easily". [/b]

no, i quite literally did not say that, you made what you just wrote there up in your mind, even though i've already explained what i've written. a guard can't get tripple doubles as easily as a center is what i LITERALLY said. that is just the truth by nature of the position. a center plays closer to the basket and will be able to get more rebounds than a guard

and btw, you did ask why nobody else is doing it and never replied to sabonis getting all those stats last season. clearly, it shows that a decent center can replicate a lot of what jokic is doing just by nature of the position within the right system. (and no, sabonis isn't close to jokic as seen in the playoffs, we're talking regular season production and stats here)

[Exp0sed]

I really do think it’s worth underscoring just how far ahead these two are of everyone else. This is actual EPM.

it's interesting that after over 60 games, EPM basically paints them both as having impact that's mostly tied to offense. we've been hearing all season how SGA has huge edge on Jokic defensively while Jokic stans have claimed Jokic is way ahead offensively

at least according to EPM, both are wrong as the two are close both offensively and defensively

[Jurassic_Park]

Is anyone tracking the official voters picks? So far i have heard 2 of them.

Stephen A - said he will be voting sga barring a collapse
Broussard - same as above. Sga unless big collapse
Windhorst - SGA. And its not all that close.

Ringer - did a poll recently. A lot said jokic. Not sure who gets official vote from here

I know people used to track it on google sheets in prior seasons.

Sucks that one will come in 2nd place. 2 great seasons

[kazyv]

Is anyone tracking the official voters picks? So far i have heard 2 of them.

Stephen A - said he will be voting sga barring a collapse
Broussard - same as above. Sga unless big collapse
Windhorst - SGA. And its not all that close.

Ringer - did a poll recently. A lot said jokic. Not sure who gets official vote from here

I know people used to track it on google sheets in prior seasons.

Sucks that one will come in 2nd place. 2 great seasons

those couple of guys are the outliers, people don't usually vote/publicize their votes before the season is over. the tracking will also begin as people officially release their votes, so close to/after the end of the regular season

there's still a lot of basketball to be played

[Shock Defeat]

Bottom line if Jokic had 0 MVPs, he would win it this year by a landslide.

[MarcusBrody]

I really do think it’s worth underscoring just how far ahead these two are of everyone else. This is actual EPM.

it's interesting that after over 60 games, EPM basically paints them both as having impact that's mostly tied to offense. we've been hearing all season how SGA has huge edge on Jokic defensively while Jokic stans have claimed Jokic is way ahead offensively

at least according to EPM, both are wrong as the two are close both offensively and defensively

I'm basically a Jokic stan, and I've written multiple times explanations as to why I think SGA would be a deserving MVP due to his being critical to the Thunder's offensive output. SGA is a good defender, but the Thunder have so many good perimeter defenders that they aren't using him as the the primary point of attack defender much of the time, and instead have him guard a secondary player, play the lanes, and snag steals as the harassed player tries to get the ball away from Dort/Caruso/JDub's pressure. And if he misses his gamble and ends up out of position, he has Chet/Hartenstein to back him up at the rim. Shai's really good at that ball hawking position, but as he isn't really the key to the Thunder's defensive scheme at either line of defense, his defensive impact isn't super high.

On the other hand, he's absolutely central to the Thunder's offensive creation. They have some good offensive players, but few creators aside from him, so his impact is super high there and without his offense, they'd just be a good, though team, not a very elite team. That jump is hard, so he's super valuable offensively and I've written as much multiple times over the past few months.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I really do think it’s worth underscoring just how far ahead these two are of everyone else. This is actual EPM.

it's interesting that after over 60 games, EPM basically paints them both as having impact that's mostly tied to offense. we've been hearing all season how SGA has huge edge on Jokic defensively while Jokic stans have claimed Jokic is way ahead offensively

at least according to EPM, both are wrong as the two are close both offensively and defensively

+1.7 DEPM is incredible for a high-usage offensive superstar.

[EmpireFalls]

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[Ssj16]

IMHO, and this is no disrespect to Jokic, but there should be a max limit of how many MVPs you've won. Three is a good max number, otherwise you're limiting other deserving candidates. To many variables at play that makes thing unfairly sphincter tight. With that said, I would like to see SGA win it this year.

This is the most Gen Z participation trophy bs thing I’ve ever read.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Sports is a zero-sum game where we applaude the victors for their achievement. There will be runner ups and close second place but this is the beauty of sport. Truly survival of the fittest.

As a lover of sports, I would not want to live in a world where this dynamic was opposite.

[AleksandarN]

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