2weekswithpay wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:2weekswithpay wrote:
KP has only one year left after this season at 30M. Expiring contracts aren't hard to move. If Holiday is still a good two-way player he won't be hard to move to the right team although this is doubtful given his age. The Celtics have picks to attach though. They could also just let KP's contract expire and get 30M off the books. If Coby gets an extension, how much money are they saving versus keeping KP and just letting him walk in free agency?
Not sure if the Celtics are saving any money here which is their only justification for this trade.
Brown makes $53 mill. Coby, Pat and Vuc make $40. $13 mill right there. Vuc is expiring, play him one season so you actually have a center, $20 mill more gone. $33 mill saved. Assuming you trade Jrue for net neutral expirings and not much more, that's the same savings right there. They have to decide to keep Coby, they could trade him for picks or let him expire. Another potential $12 mill. You still have Pat, who could be good there for two more years and you've saved about $45 mill.
End result: Trade Brown: Get Coby White, Vucevic, Pat Williams and the #5 pick (say KJ), about $8 mill, so $5 mill saved.
Can afford to trade Jrue now. Get expiring role players. Maybe even get under the second apron. Starting lineup: Derrick White, Coby White, Jayson Tatum, Porzingas, Vucevic with KJ, Pat Will, Pritchard. KJ could be good enough to quickly push Coby to sixth man. That's a championship contender lineup.
This summer: Vuc's $20 mill comes of the books. The expirings for Holiday come off the books, $33 mill. Porzingas is expiring. That's $30 mill. Coby is expiring. That's $12 mill. Yes, you may re-sign Coby or Porzingas, but there's no guaranteed money. You added $18 mill for Pat Will and $8 mill for KJ. Before you re-sign Coby or Porzingas, you've cleared $69 mill. You kept Vucevic for a legit title run, you still have KJ on a cheap contract and hopefully Pat Will is performing and cleared a ton of cap space. At the second apron, aren't they paying like $2.50 dollars for every dollar over the cap? They're paying over $50 mill in penalties this year, and it's worse next year. Regardless of what side moves they make, keeping Jaylen Brown and Tatum at over $50 mill apiece is going to be tough. There are severe disadvantages to being a repeater team over the second apron
Coby makes 12.8M, Pat 18M, and Vuc 21.4M. That's 52M. The Celtics aren't saving much money here. If you add the FRP, the Celtics would have more money on the books for next season. In the short term, this trade would increase their payroll and tax bill.
It's 4 players for 1. If you're adding Coby and KJ this summer, you could easily try to dump Holiday this summer. They have no starting center next year as is, unless you count Porzingas. This gives them a center, 2 guards and a SF/PF. I mean , if you think Jaylen Brown's value to the team would exceed the combined contribution of adding all those players to the Celtics, ok. Think you're understating the value of getting pick 5 in this loaded draft too. That should be extremely valuable, could end up Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper. Don't think there's a player on this team outside of maybe Giddey we could trade and get the #5 pick. Probably not him either.
Looks like the Celtics have 11 players under contract next year and are already above the second cap with cap holds. Without them, they're well above the first apron. Of the 11 players left, 5 are Baylor Schierman, Neemias Quetas, Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh and Xavier Tillman. Unless they're running a 6 man rotation, turning Brown into Coby, KJ, Pat and Vuc cost a little more now but is a much deeper team with way more flexibility the next summer. When they sign three more players, those 3 players with Brown will undoubtedly be far more than Coby, Vuc, Pat, KJ, unless they're all minimum players. Again, Coby and Vuc's contracts are expiring, so phrase it how you want, that's $32.4 mill clear that won't be clear with Brown instead.
I liken it to the Suns situation. They would be far better if they could trade Beal for 3-4 starter level/near starter level players. Coby, Pat, KJ, Vuc fit that category to me. Given the rest of the talent on the Celtics, Brown at $53 mill is a luxury. Their team looks like a 2k team, bunch of expensive starters, mostly minimum contract bench, still WAY over the cap with no relief in sight. One or two starters go down, you're starting Peyton Pritchard with nothing on the bench. Unless it's Porzingas, then you're starting Xavier Tillman or Neemas Queta.
Oh, and 2026 Jaylen Brown makes $57 mill and Tatum makes $58.5 mill. Jrue and Derrick White make a combined $65 mill. Porzingas has a $46 mill cap hold. If he gets that and they keep this starting squad together, cost is $226 mill just for the starters.
Jrue gets 20% of the cap. Brown gets 34%. Tatum gets 34%. White gets 17%. Porzingas cap hold is 27%. Something has to give, and trading the 34% contract helps more than the 20% one. Getting rid of both really, really helps.
Anyway, not going to keep arguing why it might make sense to the Celtics. Question is does it make sense for the Bulls? Seems like every time I offer a trade proposal, somebody comes up with reasons why the other team would never do that, lmao! The value is not drastically different, you'd need to trade a player near Jaylen Brown's level just for the number 5 pick in this draft, let alone all the additional players. Could Giddey, Brown, Matas be the core of a contender? Unless the Celtics consider Jaylen Brown untradeable for some reason and that never changes, there's a price they'll accept.
A lot of these commenters who think Coby, Pat and Vuc are all trash, of course it's automatic that any trade that includes them as important pieces will be rejected in their eyes. Then we have to have a whole different argument about how much each is worth individually and combined.