Thoughts on this reddit post about Luka's athletic regression?

[Zadeh]

I think most of posters are watching Luka since trade. This guy take dallas to the finals nearly alone at last year. Yes Nico is right

When he trade, Lakers at 6-7 , now second. Yes Nico is right.

[liquidswords]

To those saying he's injured, you're probably right but isn't that additional evidence/cause for concern that he doesn't take care of himself? He's ALWAYS injured - in his athletic prime. He's only played 70 games or more twice in his career and once was his rookie season. Luka has got to change his ways this offseason.

[UcanUwill]

It’s a major concern. A few years ago he was one of the best drivers in the game. Now he’s pretty much just a tough shot maker, which isn’t good when you’re a streaky shooter to begin with.

Hopefully he comes into next season in the best shape of his life. If not, I’m probably giving up on him as an all time great.

I honestly thought about Lukas decreased athleticism a ton. Remember that play during his rookie year when he had s put back dunk game winner? Feels like current Luka could never do something like that.

He is not in great shape, but he also plays a huge amount of games, if you consider he never skips national team play. I wonder how it will impact his career, we had few guys in history who were not the healthiest to begin with, but still patriots who never skipped a single FIBA game, and therefore they had short careers. Thinking of Marciulionis or Yao in particular. I remember sometimes it looked like Marciulionis could barely run in these games, kinda similar to Luka a bit, and man, that wear and tear finished him fast.

[uberhikari]

The problem is he’s playing like 35 year old Harden at 25.

Yes, the guy who averaged 34-9-10 last year in the RS and 29-10-8 in the PS while leading his team to the Finals is playing like 35 year old Harden.

Maybe Luka's prime is over at 26 years old. Or, and stick with me here, or he's injured/rusty from injury.

He’s still rusty after being back for a month?

He missed 22 games, and he's only been back for 12. On top of that, when he came back he found himself on a different team with different teammates, a different coach, and a new role. On top of that, he picked up new injuries.

Why are you guys pretending like you don't understand what's going on? You're free to believe a 26-year-old is regressing but few people are going to find that plausible.

[og15]

Yeah I think the 25 yo who went to the finals last season looking just as "Unathletic" is fine.

I mean the 3 time reigning MVP is probably even less athletic.

Jokic doesn't look unathletic on the court from a fitness standpoint. Constantly moving, beats guys down the court consistently, and of course he's much leaner than he was earlier in his career and has maintained that.

He can also look bigger on the court as he wears padding many times, but just going around in life, just looks like a tall guy within the boundaries of what we would consider slim (not skinny).

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[phanman]

The person who wrote the post says that they are a Luka fan but doesn't seem to understand his game, his arc or his development

The post isn't worthless, because it points out some statistical changes, but it's next to useless because it doesn't grasp why things have happened and instead falls into a lazy "get in shape" false narrative. It's Nico-esque.

Luka drives less to preserve his body now, which is a typical progression for players. Luka has been a pro for longer than he's been in the NBA and this is his 7th NBA season.

Luka gets beaten up a lot. Kidd has talked about this. And Luka plays a power game that relies on strength. The bulk pads you on collisions and gives you more strength when you lower your shoulder to create separation. Fat Kevin Love vs Skinny Kevin Love.

Also Luka gets injured a lot because he plays a lot of minutes and he's very physical on drives. Taking more perimeter shots eases the strain on the body over the long haul.

What you wrote and the reddit post aren't mutually exclusive. Anybody with eyes can see how his body has ballooned since the bubble. Him opting to settle for tough jumpers isn't solely based on a change in his playstyle as evidenced by those numbers being applicable to his recent playoff runs as well. Yes he gets beat up but his lack of conditioning also plays a huge role in him reinjuring that hamstring.

Plus Luka theoretically should be entering his physical prime now at 26yo regardless of how early his professional basketball career began. Like many of us, I've watched nearly every one of his games with LA and he just doesn't look comfortable out there. Struggling to create separation off the dribble to drive unless it's for a stepback/side step 3 and a higher frequency of pump fakes. His efficiency is in the gutter from all areas of the court: 53.5%TS, 40%FG, 32% 3PT, and 47.5% 2PT.

He rightfully should get a pass coming off a significant injury missing 6 weeks/22 games and then abruptly traded but his conditioning is still piss poor after 12 games and a month in LA.

[Archx]

The person who wrote the post says that they are a Luka fan but doesn't seem to understand his game, his arc or his development

The post isn't worthless, because it points out some statistical changes, but it's next to useless because it doesn't grasp why things have happened and instead falls into a lazy "get in shape" false narrative. It's Nico-esque.

Luka drives less to preserve his body now, which is a typical progression for players. Luka has been a pro for longer than he's been in the NBA and this is his 7th NBA season.

Luka gets beaten up a lot. Kidd has talked about this. And Luka plays a power game that relies on strength. The bulk pads you on collisions and gives you more strength when you lower your shoulder to create separation. Fat Kevin Love vs Skinny Kevin Love.

Also Luka gets injured a lot because he plays a lot of minutes and he's very physical on drives. Taking more perimeter shots eases the strain on the body over the long haul.

What you wrote and the reddit post aren't mutually exclusive. Anybody with eyes can see how his body has ballooned since the bubble. Him opting to settle for tough jumpers isn't solely based on a change in his playstyle as evidenced by those numbers being applicable to his recent playoff runs as well. Yes he gets beat up but his lack of conditioning also plays a huge role in him reinjuring that hamstring.

Plus Luka theoretically should be entering his physical prime now at 26yo regardless of how early his professional basketball career began. Like many of us, I've watched nearly every one of his games with LA and he just doesn't look comfortable out there. Struggling to create separation off the dribble to drive unless it's for a stepback/side step 3 and a higher frequency of pump fakes. His efficiency is in the gutter from all areas of the court: 53.5%TS, 40%FG, 32% 3PT, and 47.5% 2PT.

He rightfully should get a pass coming off a significant injury missing 6 weeks/22 games and then abruptly traded but his conditioning is still piss poor after 12 games and a month in LA.

You made few good points. I also noticed his comfort level right now, is at the all time low. He is forcing a lot of stuff. Drives/shots, passes, etc... Usually it comes natural to him. I hated how he played vs BKN the other day. He usually loves double teams because he is a master at exploiting defenses but he suffered vs a heavy tanking team.

To prove a point, here is ANT talking about how he studied Luka's double team plays and how to solve the puzzle of being blitzed. If other star players show this type or respect and then you see Luka suddenly struggle like he's some rookie, you know something is not right over there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1ja7xd1/dane_moore_asked_anthony_edwards_about_his_growth/

Like i said in my previous posts, i think this is like a lost season for him individually, he'll need time to regroup and get back to being himself.

[HotRocks34]

For the "Luka defense" people, this is the chart for Dallas' Individual DRTG in The Finals. The Team DRTG stats are similar.

Here's the Team DRTG On Off info for The Finals. Similar for Luka; he had the best defensive data for any Mav playing significant minutes. This matches the Estimated RAPTOR info that had Luka improving his DRAPTOR in The Finals.

There's more to defense than blow bys.

Everyone that is ahead of Luka with the On Court Team DRTG either played fewer than 10 mpg in The Finals or else only played in one game (Morris played 12 minutes in Game 4).


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For Individual DRTG metrics, Luka was best on the Mavs in 2 Finals games (2, 5), second-best in one game (4), third-best in one game (1) and fifth-best in one game (3, the only game that Luka was below the Dallas DRTG average).

[HotRocks34]

The person who wrote the post says that they are a Luka fan but doesn't seem to understand his game, his arc or his development

The post isn't worthless, because it points out some statistical changes, but it's next to useless because it doesn't grasp why things have happened and instead falls into a lazy "get in shape" false narrative. It's Nico-esque.

Luka drives less to preserve his body now, which is a typical progression for players. Luka has been a pro for longer than he's been in the NBA and this is his 7th NBA season.

Luka gets beaten up a lot. Kidd has talked about this. And Luka plays a power game that relies on strength. The bulk pads you on collisions and gives you more strength when you lower your shoulder to create separation. Fat Kevin Love vs Skinny Kevin Love.

Also Luka gets injured a lot because he plays a lot of minutes and he's very physical on drives. Taking more perimeter shots eases the strain on the body over the long haul.

What you wrote and the reddit post aren't mutually exclusive. Anybody with eyes can see how his body has ballooned since the bubble. Him opting to settle for tough jumpers isn't solely based on a change in his playstyle as evidenced by those numbers being applicable to his recent playoff runs as well. Yes he gets beat up but his lack of conditioning also plays a huge role in him reinjuring that hamstring.

He didn't injure a hamstring.

One piece of advice for people is to watch the post game interviews when you can.

Luka fell on his back a couple of games ago and it's been bothering him since then. Redick talked about this after the Nets game and said how Luka couldn't get by his primary defender until the second half. That is, his movement was messed up. And then I think he turned his ankle in the game.

Not everything is about conditioning. The game is physical and Luka is particularly physical. Sometimes guys can't move properly because they're hurt, not fat.

Aaron Gordon, who is in great shape, has been battling a calf injury all year, just like Luka.

Anyways, this year is a lost one for Luka. His numbers suck.

No disagreement on that and I would expect to see him recharged next year. Time will tell.

[Yuri36]

Was he not always more like Harden than Lebron in play style?

The problem is he’s playing like 35 year old Harden at 25.

You're too generous with Luka.
Even at 35, Harden can still dunk for example despite being smaller than Luka.
I fail to remember the last time Luka dunked even when you felt he attempted for it.

[Yuri36]

Offensively he doesn’t need athleticism

Yeah we see that when he plays a Jalen Brown or even a Dort.....oups.

[Yuri36]

Luka started looking unathletic in 22/23 season and was more unathletic last year, his best and most dominant year in the league.

I think the real question is, how good would he be if he took his conditioning and body more seriously. It's no different than Zion, these guys are incredible while being out of shape, so what would a 225-230lbs Luka be like if he dropped some fat and increased muscle mass.

I love Zion and his personality but even when he is fat, he is still a physical athletic monster so except for him to not be as injured as he's been, I don't see that big of an upside in his game if he gets in shape.

Luka on the other hand.....honestly, if the guy had just the athleticism and shape of a normal NBA point guard, I feel without any exagération that he would literally be on a GOAT trajectory so godly is his basketball talent and IQ.

I know he's already made five first all NBA teams and made a NBA final but really, you feel he could already be at an even higher level and with better achievements (MVP and/or NBA title) if he had only kept his shape of 2019-2021.

[Yuri36]

Yeah I think the 25 yo who went to the finals last season looking just as "Unathletic" is fine.

I mean the 3 time reigning MVP is probably even less athletic.

You can't compare the level of physical shape, speed and fitness needed at center and the one needed at point guard, especially in NBA.

[mademan]

People in this thread will continue to hand wave it away, but the fact is that it's been more than a year since we've seen Luka play like a consistent superstar, let alone top 3-5 player he's billed as. Hard not to worry about that

Still a terrible trade for the Mavs who shouldve went with the volume rebuild route

[dWadeOwnzYou]

Nico probably wrote that Reddit in disguise. Submitted after the trade. Nicely done.

[levon]

People in this thread will continue to hand wave it away, but the fact is that it's been more than a year since we've seen Luka play like a consistent superstar, let alone top 3-5 player he's billed as. Hard not to worry about that

Still a terrible trade for the Mavs who shouldve went with the volume rebuild route

Lol how has it been more than a year?

[mademan]

People in this thread will continue to hand wave it away, but the fact is that it's been more than a year since we've seen Luka play like a consistent superstar, let alone top 3-5 player he's billed as. Hard not to worry about that

Still a terrible trade for the Mavs who shouldve went with the volume rebuild route

Lol how has it been more than a year?

About. It started last March when he got hurt, looked bad for large parts of the playoffs where his good games where genuinely scarce, came into the season playing bad, had a good stretch before he got hurt again on Christmas and is back to struggling (relatively ofc).

This is a large amount of time to be inconsistent for a top player in his prime.

[Yuri36]

Nico probably wrote that Reddit in disguise. Submitted after the trade. Nicely done.

Forget Nico, even die hardest Luka fans like me have recognized for years that his fitness and recurrent lack of shape would sooner or later become a problem or a limitation on his way to greatness, be it with injuries or against hugely athletic and intelligent defenders.

[levon]

People in this thread will continue to hand wave it away, but the fact is that it's been more than a year since we've seen Luka play like a consistent superstar, let alone top 3-5 player he's billed as. Hard not to worry about that

Still a terrible trade for the Mavs who shouldve went with the volume rebuild route

Lol how has it been more than a year?

About. It started last March when he got hurt, looked bad for large parts of the playoffs where his good games where genuinely scarce, came into the season playing bad, had a good stretch before he got hurt again on Christmas and is back to struggling (relatively ofc).

This is a large amount of time to be inconsistent for a top player in his prime.

Per Statmuse

Luka Dončić averaged 34.0 points, 9.8 assists and 9.1 rebounds in 65 games between October 1, 2023 and March 31, 2024.

Luka Dončić averaged 30.1 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists in 28 games in the regular-season and playoffs between March 31, 2024 and June 30, 2024.

His point production dropped by 4, but you'd be a god to average 34 in the playoffs. Hardly a case of not being a "consistent superstar".

This is the rest of the regular season after missing one game with hamstring tightness:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=luka+don%C4%8Di%C4%87+stats+march+17+2024+to+june+2024

I think you came into the thread handwaving.

[mademan]

Lol how has it been more than a year?

About. It started last March when he got hurt, looked bad for large parts of the playoffs where his good games where genuinely scarce, came into the season playing bad, had a good stretch before he got hurt again on Christmas and is back to struggling (relatively ofc).

This is a large amount of time to be inconsistent for a top player in his prime.

Per Statmuse

Luka Dončić averaged 34.0 points, 9.8 assists and 9.1 rebounds in 65 games between October 1, 2023 and March 31, 2024.

Luka Dončić averaged 30.1 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists in 28 games in the regular-season and playoffs between March 31, 2024 and June 30, 2024.

His point production dropped by 4, but you'd be a god to average 34 in the playoffs. Hardly a case of not being a "consistent superstar".

This is the rest of the regular season after missing one game with hamstring tightness:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=luka+don%C4%8Di%C4%87+stats+march+17+2024+to+june+2024

I think you came into the thread handwaving.

LOL. He averaged 29ppg in the PO on 23 shots. He had a below league average TS%. He struggled....i dont know how you can define it as anything but that.

And this year its more of the same. Gaudy volume numbers at below league average efficiency. This is not a what top 5 players do

But yes, keep hand waving it away. It's not a problem at all that Luka has not played like a top 5 player in a year and genuine arguments are there for top 10