Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[kodo]

If The Bulls sign him to a one year deal does that mean he's no longer a restricted free agent?

Obviously you don't want to lose Giddey for nothing, but I also wouldn't like to sign him to a big contract and then he's not very tradable (similar to Zach the past year or so).

Yeah, I think he's suggesting that if Giddey plays on a qualifying offer next season, then he'd be a UFA after that.

You can’t even trade him on a qualifying offer. Unless you a simply don’t believe in him I think it’s imperative to get a deal done this offseason. I’m thinking $25 million per gets it done.

Hopefully at $25M. Franz Wagner was a point forward producing 21/5/4 at the same age as Giddey with 28% 3P shooting and got $45M.

But financially speaking, we torpedoed his value for the first half of the season so we have that going for us. Windy basically pointed that out directly.

It has been puzzling why they kept his role narrow early on. I'm not sure that was a long-term strategy play. But I know this: I will bet on Josh Giddey and I will bet on him getting a very good contract whether he gets it this year or he has to wait another year and become an unrestricted free agent."

[jnrjr79]

Give him big bucks but on a short deal . Good for both sides .

There is no real reason for Giddey to agree to a short deal. He'd probably prefer taking the QO and becoming an UFA.

[sco]

Give him big bucks but on a short deal . Good for both sides .

There is no real reason for Giddey to agree to a short deal. He'd probably prefer taking the QO and becoming an UFA.

IDK, if we can't get a 4/$90ish deal done, taking a 2/$60 deal, which would guarantee him generational wealth, while keeping his door open for at least a could more paydays actually seems more prudent than risking injury with a QO. I think many here would prefer a shorter deal for him because they don't believe in him sustaining this level of performance or taking the franchise back to becoming a playoff team.

[kodo]

Give him big bucks but on a short deal . Good for both sides .

There is no real reason for Giddey to agree to a short deal. He'd probably prefer taking the QO and becoming an UFA.

Well he wouldn't even need to sign the QO, he just goes out in FA and signs anywhere. There is zero chance that he doesn't get an offer that beats $11M for 1 year. Tobias Harris at age 32 got $25M for 2 years.

[sco]

Give him big bucks but on a short deal . Good for both sides .

There is no real reason for Giddey to agree to a short deal. He'd probably prefer taking the QO and becoming an UFA.

Well he wouldn't even need to sign the QO, he just goes out in FA and signs anywhere. There is zero chance that he doesn't get an offer that beats $11M for 1 year. Tobias Harris at age 32 got $25M for 2 years.

I think the point is that he might feel that any offer he gets as a RFA would be suppressed by his restricted status. If I was AK, I'd put an offer of 4/$88M on the table and say here's my offer. If you can find a better offer, we'll match it, but if you can't our offer goes down to 4/$80.

[WindyCityBorn]

There is no real reason for Giddey to agree to a short deal. He'd probably prefer taking the QO and becoming an UFA.

Well he wouldn't even need to sign the QO, he just goes out in FA and signs anywhere. There is zero chance that he doesn't get an offer that beats $11M for 1 year. Tobias Harris at age 32 got $25M for 2 years.

I think the point is that he might feel that any offer he gets as a RFA would be suppressed by his restricted status. If I was AK, I'd put an offer of 4/$88M on the table and say here's my offer. If you can find a better offer, we'll match it, but if you can't our offer goes down to 4/$80.

And his agent tells AK go frick yourself. The Bulls are not in position of power that you think they are.

[Red8911]

Pay the man, he's improving daily and he's still young. His outside shot has improved year on year even at higher volume. He's posting triple double with high 20/30's scoring, he can rebound, and he's not a low-bball IQ player like half the Bulls roster.

Bulls have needed a play-making PG that can hit shots for about 13 years now, why look the gift horse in the mouth? He has all-star potential and he's the best player on the Bulls currently.

Yeah I agree fk it pay him whatever he wants. In fact give him a blank contract and let him fill out the numbers !

[Lunartic]

Pay the man, he's improving daily and he's still young. His outside shot has improved year on year even at higher volume. He's posting triple double with high 20/30's scoring, he can rebound, and he's not a low-bball IQ player like half the Bulls roster.

Bulls have needed a play-making PG that can hit shots for about 13 years now, why look the gift horse in the mouth? He has all-star potential and he's the best player on the Bulls currently.

Yeah I agree fk it pay him whatever he wants. In fact give him a blank contract and let him fill out the numbers !

I think the Bulls employed a similar strategy with Vuc/Williams

[ozbull]

The reported money for Giddey looks good to me.

It's #2 or even number #3 cash and long term, is that not what we all think he can be?

His play since this became his team has been stellar and while he's not a guy you build around, he's certainly a sharp piece around that player, should the Bulls ever get that lucky in a draft again.

The Caruso/Giddey trade for him is one of the best, luckiest moves this franchise has made in a decade. Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth and ensure he is here and adequately paid long term.

[League Circles]

The reported money for Giddey looks good to me.

It's #2 or even number #3 cash and long term, is that not what we all think he can be?

His play since this became his team has been stellar and while he's not a guy you build around, he's certainly a sharp piece around that player, should the Bulls ever get that lucky in a draft again.

The Caruso/Giddey trade for him is one of the best, luckiest moves this franchise has made in a decade. Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth and ensure he is here and adequately paid long term.

I don't think he can be the 2nd best player on a contender. I think his ceiling on a contender is 2nd best offensive player with 4th best defense (among the 5 starters), so 3rd best player overall. But that's his ceiling. I'd project him to be the 4th or 5th best overall player on a contender. Which is good, but the money is an issue.

[sco]

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[ozbull]

The reported money for Giddey looks good to me.

It's #2 or even number #3 cash and long term, is that not what we all think he can be?

His play since this became his team has been stellar and while he's not a guy you build around, he's certainly a sharp piece around that player, should the Bulls ever get that lucky in a draft again.

The Caruso/Giddey trade for him is one of the best, luckiest moves this franchise has made in a decade. Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth and ensure he is here and adequately paid long term.

I don't think he can be the 2nd best player on a contender. I think his ceiling on a contender is 2nd best offensive player with 4th best defense (among the 5 starters), so 3rd best player overall. But that's his ceiling. I'd project him to be the 4th or 5th best overall player on a contender. Which is good, but the money is an issue.

$30m over 5 years is not a long term issue for a #3 on a contender - particularly if that player is your second best offensive weapon.

IMHO, of course.

[League Circles]

The reported money for Giddey looks good to me.

It's #2 or even number #3 cash and long term, is that not what we all think he can be?

His play since this became his team has been stellar and while he's not a guy you build around, he's certainly a sharp piece around that player, should the Bulls ever get that lucky in a draft again.

The Caruso/Giddey trade for him is one of the best, luckiest moves this franchise has made in a decade. Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth and ensure he is here and adequately paid long term.

I don't think he can be the 2nd best player on a contender. I think his ceiling on a contender is 2nd best offensive player with 4th best defense (among the 5 starters), so 3rd best player overall. But that's his ceiling. I'd project him to be the 4th or 5th best overall player on a contender. Which is good, but the money is an issue.

$30m over 5 years is not a long term issue for a #3 on a contender - particularly if that player is your second best offensive weapon.

IMHO, of course.

Agreed, but I think that's his ceiling, not his projection. I'd like to try to only pay guys based on their projected value, not their highest possible value.

[Dez]

I don't think he can be the 2nd best player on a contender. I think his ceiling on a contender is 2nd best offensive player with 4th best defense (among the 5 starters), so 3rd best player overall. But that's his ceiling. I'd project him to be the 4th or 5th best overall player on a contender. Which is good, but the money is an issue.

$30m over 5 years is not a long term issue for a #3 on a contender - particularly if that player is your second best offensive weapon.

IMHO, of course.

Agreed, but I think that's his ceiling, not his projection. I'd like to try to only pay guys based on their projected value, not their highest possible value.

Except your logic is flawed because you're using your opinion of Giddey which is subjective.

[League Circles]

$30m over 5 years is not a long term issue for a #3 on a contender - particularly if that player is your second best offensive weapon.

IMHO, of course.

Agreed, but I think that's his ceiling, not his projection. I'd like to try to only pay guys based on their projected value, not their highest possible value.

Except your logic is flawed because you're using your opinion of Giddey which is subjective.

Is there another way to do it???

[kodo]

KC said Giddey might be back by the end of the road trip, 6 games.

[Dez]

Agreed, but I think that's his ceiling, not his projection. I'd like to try to only pay guys based on their projected value, not their highest possible value.

Except your logic is flawed because you're using your opinion of Giddey which is subjective.

Is there another way to do it???

No but when you have a set opinion of a player despite that player improving on every aspect of his game over his career and you say this is his ceiling, it's heavily flawed.

We don't know Giddey's ceiling because he's improving every season.

[League Circles]

Except your logic is flawed because you're using your opinion of Giddey which is subjective.

Is there another way to do it???

No but when you have a set opinion of a player despite that player improving on every aspect of his game over his career and you say this is his ceiling, it's heavily flawed.

We don't know Giddey's ceiling because he's improving every season.

I don't get it. We don't ever know what any player's ceiling is. In order to plan and build you have to make an educated guess.

I don't have a "set" opinion of Giddey. Like with any player I try to continually observe and adjust.

I mean, are we supposed to act like maybe in 3 years him and Buzelis might be the two best players in the world? IMO of course they won't be that good. Thus, their ceilings are lower. We all should have a subjective projection of what their ceilings are, and pay them something at least slightly less than that, because most players don't scratch their ceilings. A ceiling is the best that a player could possibly be, not the best he's already achieved nor what he is most likely to achieve.

[2weekswithpay]

Quickley vs Giddey per 75.

Spoiler:

Pretty similar production on offense. Quickley doesn't have Giddey's high end passing but he's a proven shooting threat and his scoring volume is higher even if you go back to when he came off the bench for the Knicks.

[DrModesty]

Quickley vs Giddey per 75.

Spoiler:

Pretty similar production on offense. Quickley doesn't have Giddey's high end passing but he's a proven shooting threat and his scoring volume is higher even if you go back to when he came off the bench for the Knicks.

Quickley is getting a flat 32.5m each of the next 5 years.

For year 1 it has been 23.12% of the cap, and by year 5 it will be 15.19% of the cap.

In 2025/26-2029/30 dollars that is equivalent of $35,746,907 per year as a percentage of the cap.

It shows how quickly the cap is rising for an equivalent salary to be 3.25m more after just one year. It also shows that at the back end, even something like $30m per year flat for Giddey would likely be a steal. It would be 13.24% of the cap which in todays money is $18.5m as an equal percentage of the cap (Collin Sexton/D'lo Russell money).