Thoughts on this reddit post about Luka's athletic regression?

[levon]

About. It started last March when he got hurt, looked bad for large parts of the playoffs where his good games where genuinely scarce, came into the season playing bad, had a good stretch before he got hurt again on Christmas and is back to struggling (relatively ofc).

This is a large amount of time to be inconsistent for a top player in his prime.

Per Statmuse

Luka Dončić averaged 34.0 points, 9.8 assists and 9.1 rebounds in 65 games between October 1, 2023 and March 31, 2024.

Luka Dončić averaged 30.1 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists in 28 games in the regular-season and playoffs between March 31, 2024 and June 30, 2024.

His point production dropped by 4, but you'd be a god to average 34 in the playoffs. Hardly a case of not being a "consistent superstar".

This is the rest of the regular season after missing one game with hamstring tightness:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=luka+don%C4%8Di%C4%87+stats+march+17+2024+to+june+2024

I think you came into the thread handwaving.

LOL. He averaged 29ppg in the PO on 23 shots. He had a below league average TS%. He struggled....i dont know how you can define it as anything but that.

And this year its more of the same. Gaudy volume numbers at below league average efficiency. This is not a what top 5 players do

But yes, keep hand waving it away. It's not a problem at all that Luka has not played like a top 5 player in a year and genuine arguments are there for top 10

Jayson Tatum averaged 25 points on 48% efg in the playoffs last year compared to Luka's 29 points on 51% efg. And I think we can both agree Luka's defended far more aggressively than Tatum. Yet I'm not in this thread arguing that Tatum's not a consistent superstar or not a top 5 or 10 player.

Give it up man. You've moved the goalposts twice already and you've been here long enough to know efficiency goes down in the playoffs and players get dinged up. And also that players may miss more games after playoff runs. 80% of the Mavs are injured this year. Nuance and context isn't handwaving.

[mademan]

Per Statmuse





His point production dropped by 4, but you'd be a god to average 34 in the playoffs. Hardly a case of not being a "consistent superstar".

This is the rest of the regular season after missing one game with hamstring tightness:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=luka+don%C4%8Di%C4%87+stats+march+17+2024+to+june+2024

I think you came into the thread handwaving.

LOL. He averaged 29ppg in the PO on 23 shots. He had a below league average TS%. He struggled....i dont know how you can define it as anything but that.

And this year its more of the same. Gaudy volume numbers at below league average efficiency. This is not a what top 5 players do

But yes, keep hand waving it away. It's not a problem at all that Luka has not played like a top 5 player in a year and genuine arguments are there for top 10

Jayson Tatum averaged 25 points on 48% efg in the playoffs last year compared to Luka's 29 points on 51% efg. And I think we can both agree Luka's defended far more aggressively than Tatum. Yet I'm not in this thread arguing that Tatum's not a consistent superstar or not a top 5 or 10 player.

Give it up man. You've moved the goalposts twice already and you've been here long enough to know efficiency goes down in the playoffs and players get dinged up. And also that players may miss more games after playoff runs. 80% of the Mavs are injured this year. Nuance and context isn't handwaving.

effeciency has carried over to the RS. I know how it goes, but Luka's entire value comes offensively while Tatum serves as a secondary defensive anchor for the C's. He can have poor offensive games and still help them be a dominant defense. And yes, Tatum isnt a consistent superstar offensively. There's really only a few of those guys in the league, a club that Luka used to belong to.

But ya, keep hand waving away an entire year of (relative) struggle for a player in his prime.

[reddyplayerone]

lmao at anyone pretending Luka has ever been able to jump over a phone book

I remember him missing wide open dunks in his rookie and second year

He'll be fine lol

[The Laker Kid]

Are we basing this based on his dwindling number of dunks per year? If I'm an NBA player, I would avoid dunking as much as I can to preserve my knees. It's only exciting for RealGM posters and I'm not gonna cater to them.

[dWadeOwnzYou]

Just a refresher, here's just one of Doncic 2020 playoff performance. Totally night and day compared to him now. I didn't realized how quick he was, getting to the rim with ease.

Watch on YouTube

[hugepatsfan]

I think there is legitimate reason to be concerned with Luka. As AMAZING a player as he is he's lost a lot of the smoothness and athleticism to his game already. He's a legit sieve defensively and I'm really not sure it's just an effort thing.

He's still a generational talent on offense even if he's a fat, unathletic slob compared to other perimeter players.

[tamaraw08]

To those saying he's injured, you're probably right but isn't that additional evidence/cause for concern that he doesn't take care of himself? He's ALWAYS injured - in his athletic prime. He's only played 70 games or more twice in his career and once was his rookie season. Luka has got to change his ways this offseason.

I'm not sure if you saw that pretty bad fall when Luka landed hard on his back vs the Pelicans.
But yes, he needs to work harder in losing some fat and/or convert fat into muscle.

[RJT2k]

Was he not always more like Harden than Lebron in play style?

The problem is he’s playing like 35 year old Harden at 25.

Yes, the guy who averaged 34-9-10 last year in the RS and 29-10-8 in the PS while leading his team to the Finals is playing like 35 year old Harden.

Maybe Luka's prime is over at 26 years old. Or, and stick with me here, or he's injured/rusty from injury.

Exactly.

[Jazz9]

Was he not always more like Harden than Lebron in play style?

The problem is he’s playing like 35 year old Harden at 25.

You're too generous with Luka.
Even at 35, Harden can still dunk for example despite being smaller than Luka.
I fail to remember the last time Luka dunked even when you felt he attempted for it.

There was kind of an attempt vs the Pels at 0:51

Watch on YouTube

[Mr B]

Yes, the guy who averaged 34-9-10 last year in the RS and 29-10-8 in the PS while leading his team to the Finals is playing like 35 year old Harden.

Maybe Luka's prime is over at 26 years old. Or, and stick with me here, or he's injured/rusty from injury.

He’s still rusty after being back for a month?

He missed 22 games, and he's only been back for 12. On top of that, when he came back he found himself on a different team with different teammates, a different coach, and a new role. On top of that, he picked up new injuries.

Why are you guys pretending like you don't understand what's going on? You're free to believe a 26-year-old is regressing but few people are going to find that plausible.

I have no doubt that he’s still bothered by the trade. He never wanted to leave Dallas and thought he would play his entire career there and then under the cover of darkness the idiot GM he had beef with traded him. Of course he’s still bothered by that. That’s a valid reason for his regression since he’s been in LA.

He’s not rusty because of the time he missed though. He’s had plenty of time to recover from the injury and get his shot back. If he’s in the gym every single day shooting the rust off then the time missed shouldn’t be bothering him.

As for Luka himself if you’re being honest with yourself you can’t look at his body from his first 2 seasons and look at him now and say he’s in better shape.

[Yuri36]

lmao at anyone pretending Luka has ever been able to jump over a phone book

I remember him missing wide open dunks in his rookie and second year

He'll be fine lol

Your memory has some trouble it seems.
While obviously not having a big jump, he could dunk without too many problems in his first years on the league when he had a clear path to the basket.
He even threw a nasty one against Denver which went to the top 10 and won Dallas the game:

https://youtu.be/cXrHT-jZ0Sg?feature=shared

If he had only stayed in that shape, i highly doubt Mavs would have traded him.

[HotRocks34]

Declining, unathletic fat man scores 29 points in first half against Milwaukee tonight on 15 FGA.

[HotRocks34]

Declining, unathletic fat man scores 29 points in first half against Milwaukee tonight on 15 FGA.

Note: 9 of Luka's 15 FGA were threes (5/9). I bet that would make the Reddit poster upset.

Need more dunks!

[Archx]

If he had only stayed in that shape, i highly doubt Mavs would have traded him.

Has nothing to do with his conditioning. Mavs FO has been exposed on many lies by now, even by his ex or current teammates. Pure reason why he was traded is because Dumont has no clue about basketball and didn't want to pay big money.

[liquidswords]

Reading more replies in this thread and both of these things can be true:
1) Luka is in terrible shape compared to when he entered the league. His physical decline is cause for concern and may increase his risk for a catastrophic injury in the future
2) The Mavs still made a bad trade for the franchise despite their concerns over his long-term health

[Yuri36]

Reading more replies in this thread and both of these things can be true:
1) Luka is in terrible shape compared to when he entered the league. His physical decline is cause for concern and may increase his risk for a catastrophic injury in the future
2) The Mavs still made a bad trade for the franchise despite their concerns over his long-term health

+1000

[TwitterFingers]

Luka’s game never relied upon athleticism

[rockmanslim]

Just a refresher, here's just one of Doncic 2020 playoff performance. Totally night and day compared to him now. I didn't realized how quick he was, getting to the rim with ease.

Watch on YouTube

TIL MKG was a Mav

[BaDaBo]

There’s room for debate on whether Luka has lost some of his athleticism or is it just the injury. He'd also benefit from a summer off from international play. Playing year-long will sap your energy.

But him not dunking in-game is a choice.

He injured his wrist on two occasions while dunking in the 2022/23 season IIRC.

Read on Twitter

[guynumber45]

There’s room for debate on whether Luka has lost some of his athleticism or is it just the injury. He'd also benefit from a summer off from international play. Playing year-long will sap your energy.

But him not dunking in-game is a choice.

He injured his wrist on two occasions while dunking in the 2022/23 season IIRC.

Read on Twitter

Not dunking isn't really a problem for me. It's the lack of burst off the dribble. 2020 Luka is not getting locked up by 38 year old Al Hortford on multiple possesions