Rumors, Random Thoughts, and Non-threadworthy Posts 17.0 The Least Random

[Astaluego]

Windhorst just destroying the narrative on this board about the Jazz entering 3 more years of tanking with Markannen and Kessler thrilled to be a part. Turns out they promised Lauri the opposite of this. Which of course always made more logical sense. It's just podcasters get lazy with a prospect from Utah coming in 2 years so naturally the Jazz must tank and must somehow get him even though there is no connection other than forced ones.

I think Utah made a half-hearted attempt to "compete", hence the rumors about Bridges and George. Could you imagine the position we'd be in had we signed George to that contract and traded for Mikal Bridges? Probably a 30-35 win team losing their pick to the Thunder.

But, I don't think those attempts were super credible, and I do think that Ainge is a lying snake b/c that's how he his organizations have always been to their players. I think the thought is that we tank this year, if Flagg is good enough it is impossible to tank next year and you already have a second star to pair with him. If he isn't good enough to immediately be a top 20-25 player you tank again, and you have Lauri's stable contract that looks better in the exploding cap environment as we go. I don't think there is some master plan other than to collect assets and assume you can leverage them into players/prospects/etc. with depressed value, or other assets from desperate teams (e.g., the Suns) and that is fine insofar as it goes, but clearly the better plan if you were going to tank so hard this season you got fined for resting Kessler and Lauri for multiple games, would have been to capitalize on Lauri's value early.

I really hate this era of the team, I think the plan is all wrong. If you want to tank commit to it and collect assets, don't just serially rest players to throw games.

With all this noise, will the strategy change? I understand that the Jazz, as a small market, want to sink for a couple of years by losing naturally and organically and obtain at least a couple of top picks, but for that they would have to trade Lauri and Kessler for future assets... Do you think they will be traded this summer, if the right offer comes (for Angie = overpaid?)... I'm sorry to be heavy with this, but I don't understand that two high-level athletes, young people, would be wasted/conform to playing without any competitive incentive, etc. and above all, the value that the Jazz could receive in return...The plan of tanking and preserving your stars seems implausible and contradictory to me.

[Astaluego]

Sometimes people have more than one connection/motivation. Its possible two guys with ties to BYU might pull strings to help BYU without the Jazz coming into play.

but I also know once someone buys into a narrative they often don't want to budge from it. You seem super convinced the Jazz are going to hard tank 3 more seasons. And have an under the table agreement to pay Kessler double the market rate to go along with said plan lol.

I just think Occam's Razor tells a very different story. But if you are right and Kessler gets $175-200M and the Jazz win < 75 games combined the next 3 seasons I assure you I will give you your flowers and eat my crow.

I'm following this whole Jazz soap opera with interest... so what do you think it means (let's see if I understood correctly)? That the Jazz will sell their stars to the highest bidder? And Angie is playing 4D chess, leaking that they are almost untouchable and an essential part of the future, to increase their value (and justify not trading Lauri when she should have)? Or is the rumor about the 3 more years of tanking false?

[babyjax13]

Windhorst just destroying the narrative on this board about the Jazz entering 3 more years of tanking with Markannen and Kessler thrilled to be a part. Turns out they promised Lauri the opposite of this. Which of course always made more logical sense. It's just podcasters get lazy with a prospect from Utah coming in 2 years so naturally the Jazz must tank and must somehow get him even though there is no connection other than forced ones.

I think Utah made a half-hearted attempt to "compete", hence the rumors about Bridges and George. Could you imagine the position we'd be in had we signed George to that contract and traded for Mikal Bridges? Probably a 30-35 win team losing their pick to the Thunder.

But, I don't think those attempts were super credible, and I do think that Ainge is a lying snake b/c that's how he his organizations have always been to their players. I think the thought is that we tank this year, if Flagg is good enough it is impossible to tank next year and you already have a second star to pair with him. If he isn't good enough to immediately be a top 20-25 player you tank again, and you have Lauri's stable contract that looks better in the exploding cap environment as we go. I don't think there is some master plan other than to collect assets and assume you can leverage them into players/prospects/etc. with depressed value, or other assets from desperate teams (e.g., the Suns) and that is fine insofar as it goes, but clearly the better plan if you were going to tank so hard this season you got fined for resting Kessler and Lauri for multiple games, would have been to capitalize on Lauri's value early.

I really hate this era of the team, I think the plan is all wrong. If you want to tank commit to it and collect assets, don't just serially rest players to throw games.

With all this noise, will the strategy change? I understand that the Jazz, as a small market, want to sink for a couple of years by losing naturally and organically and obtain at least a couple of top picks, but for that they would have to trade Lauri and Kessler for future assets... Do you think they will be traded this summer, if the right offer comes (for Angie = overpaid?)... I'm sorry to be heavy with this, but I don't understand that two high-level athletes, young people, would be wasted/conform to playing without any competitive incentive, etc. and above all, the value that the Jazz could receive in return...The plan of tanking and preserving your stars seems implausible and contradictory to me.

I don't see a reason to trade Kessler given his age and that he is an RFA. He might even be excited about a year in which Lauri is gone and there is a large opening to prove that he has more to his game. I do think we should try to trade Lauri. I love him, I think he is an amazing player and I can't imagine how good we would be had we been able to get him earlier and kept Mitchell/Gobert - the asset waste under Lindsay was really tragic. But even in the best case scenario you only get the tail end of his prime while your young player(s) are ascending.

[SkyHook]

Windhorst just destroying the narrative on this board about the Jazz entering 3 more years of tanking with Markannen and Kessler thrilled to be a part. Turns out they promised Lauri the opposite of this. Which of course always made more logical sense. It's just podcasters get lazy with a prospect from Utah coming in 2 years so naturally the Jazz must tank and must somehow get him even though there is no connection other than forced ones.

Was this on TV? I didn't see it in his pod.

[SkyHook]

Sometimes people have more than one connection/motivation. Its possible two guys with ties to BYU might pull strings to help BYU without the Jazz coming into play.

but I also know once someone buys into a narrative they often don't want to budge from it. You seem super convinced the Jazz are going to hard tank 3 more seasons. And have an under the table agreement to pay Kessler double the market rate to go along with said plan lol.

I just think Occam's Razor tells a very different story. But if you are right and Kessler gets $175-200M and the Jazz win < 75 games combined the next 3 seasons I assure you I will give you your flowers and eat my crow.

I haven't seen anything about three more years of tanking. The closest thing to that is this from Sarah Todd, referencing these past three seasons:

"The team is in it’s third losing season following the massive overhaul and while the fans have largely stuck around, there are some that are starting to experience tank fatigue. That’s understandable considering what the Jazz front office personnel can publicly say.
For example, they can’t come right out and say things like, “we were planning on being really bad but Lauri Markkanen was better than we anticipated.” Or, “we are tanking.” Or, “we will be tanking for at least three years.”"

Hints at one more "development" year, sure. Eyes on another high draft pick in 2026. Multiple Jazz sources alluding to this.

[Texas Chuck]

I haven't seen anything about three more years of tanking.

It's a poster here selling this as the master plan. And claiming Utah has gone on the record with local media stating it flat out. He's since walked it back a little, though not much.

[SkyHook]

I haven't seen anything about three more years of tanking.

It's a poster here selling this as the master plan. And claiming Utah has gone on the record with local media stating it flat out. He's since walked it back a little, though not much.

Ah. He might have misread something and it stuck.

For my part, the more I see of the Smith era of the Jazz the less confident I am in terms of my feel for their direction. I suppose a lot of fans can say that about their team after this weird season of whiplash inducing decisions.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I haven't seen anything about three more years of tanking.

It's a poster here selling this as the master plan. And claiming Utah has gone on the record with local media stating it flat out. He's since walked it back a little, though not much.

I have literally never said on the record, lol. I specifically clarified that they have not gone on the record almost immediately but that the people reporting it are so connected that it's almost certainly true.

I have also never endorsed this plan, it sucks really badly.

Like, find the post where you say I said the Jazz said this on the record.

[meat tray]

I haven't seen anything about three more years of tanking.

It's a poster here selling this as the master plan. And claiming Utah has gone on the record with local media stating it flat out. He's since walked it back a little, though not much.

Yeah, it's just a disingenuous reading of what has been reported. Those connected to the team are saying the plan is to be bad again for one more year due to the stacked draft and the OKC pick obligation going away after next season. They will then start trying to compete the following season in 26-27.

In the meantime, they are keeping flexibility in case a more win-now move presents itself - say for example, someone like Booker suddenly becomes available.

Agree or disagree with the approach, but that's been the consistent messaging from the local beat writers for the past 4-5 months now.

[Devilanche]

The Jazz have repeatedly told local media that they want to tank as shamelessly as possible in 2025, 2026, and 2027 and then have role players locked up and ready to go to compete in 2028 onward and that's why they're going to keep Markkanen and Kessler. This is a terrible plan, but it's the plan and they're going to have to pay out of the nose to keep both guys through these years of tanking.

I think this is where the 3 years plan come about.

[SkyHook]

The Jazz have repeatedly told local media that they want to tank as shamelessly as possible in 2025, 2026, and 2027 and then have role players locked up and ready to go to compete in 2028 onward and that's why they're going to keep Markkanen and Kessler. This is a terrible plan, but it's the plan and they're going to have to pay out of the nose to keep both guys through these years of tanking.

I think this is where the 3 years plan come about.

Then HAEH is only off by two years in his understanding... from everything I've read. One more "development" year and ample capspace in the summer of 2026 for aggressive pursuits of talent. Whether this plan actually works remains to be seen.

[Devilanche]

The Jazz have repeatedly told local media that they want to tank as shamelessly as possible in 2025, 2026, and 2027 and then have role players locked up and ready to go to compete in 2028 onward and that's why they're going to keep Markkanen and Kessler. This is a terrible plan, but it's the plan and they're going to have to pay out of the nose to keep both guys through these years of tanking.

I think this is where the 3 years plan come about.

Then HAEH is only off by two years in his understanding... from everything I've read. One more "development" year and ample capspace in the summer of 2026 for aggressive pursuits of talent. Whether this plan actually works remains to be seen.

I don’t see anything off about jazz wanting multi years tanking but just thought it was odd/interesting that the jazz was dead set on tanking until 2027 that I remembered the statement and went back to find it.

I can’t recall any team hinting about multiple season tanking that goes beyond the current season and the next season (ie 2 draft worth) thus far. Did the Hinkie Sixers years that definitive on multiple tanking years ?

[SkyHook]

IIRC, the Hinkie philosophy was just to be bad as long as it takes to be good—as many bites of the lottery apple as it took. The lost years at the beginning of the careers of Embiid and Simmons kept kicking the can down the road.

[HadAnEffectHere]

In response to the league fining the Jazz for not playing Markkanen, the Jazz are now playing Markkanen... While giving Walker Kessler his 6th "DNP-Rest" of the year.

The Jazz don't really need to tank anymore this year so this feels like it's almost just for the love of the tank at this point.

[Texas Chuck]

The Thunder being investigated for sitting players in a game they won by 18 seems petty. But also the league more worried about perception of fairness than anything else.

But if the league's concern is ticket buying customers not getting to see the stars, then cut your schedule back and give up some revenue to improve your product, to then hopefully grow your fanbase.

But sorry as long as you insist on 82 games and then make 2/3 of the league post-season eligible teams are going to do this because its in their best interest.

And no this isn't about players today not being as tough or as committed as players from the past. This is team driven not player driven.

[SkyHook]

In response to the league fining the Jazz for not playing Markkanen, the Jazz are now playing Markkanen... While giving Walker Kessler his 6th "DNP-Rest" of the year.

The Jazz don't really need to tank anymore this year so this feels like it's almost just for the love of the tank at this point.

Being guaranteed a top-5 pick instead of top-6 (or lower) has clear advantages. They've come this far, I'm perfectly fine with them seeing it through.

[SkyHook]

The Thunder being investigated for sitting players in a game they won by 18 seems petty. But also the league more worried about perception of fairness than anything else.

But if the league's concern is ticket buying customers not getting to see the stars, then cut your schedule back and give up some revenue to improve your product, to then hopefully grow your fanbase.

But sorry as long as you insist on 82 games and then make 2/3 of the league post-season eligible teams are going to do this because its in their best interest.

And no this isn't about players today not being as tough or as committed as players from the past. This is team driven not player driven.

I understand the rationale behind the rule, but punishing franchises for making the best decisions for their present and future—in accordance with the contradictory incentives that the league has created—seems petty to begin with.

[NYG]

The Thunder being investigated for sitting players in a game they won by 18 seems petty. But also the league more worried about perception of fairness than anything else.

But if the league's concern is ticket buying customers not getting to see the stars, then cut your schedule back and give up some revenue to improve your product, to then hopefully grow your fanbase.

But sorry as long as you insist on 82 games and then make 2/3 of the league post-season eligible teams are going to do this because its in their best interest.

And no this isn't about players today not being as tough or as committed as players from the past. This is team driven not player driven.

I know it will never happen, but I bet ditching 10 teams and going with 50-60 regular season games would make the product crazy good. Imagine the 10 teams the NBA would cut and if they had a draft for the remaining 20 to fill their rosters with players from those teams. Teams would be so deep and talented.

[jayjaysee]

So..

Klay+Lively+Martin to LAL
Rui+Reaves+2025 Dallas first+??? to Orlando
Suggs to Dallas

Dallas owe the LAL 2029 first? LAL owe their 2031 first? LAL just owes a 2030 swap and Dallas sends the 2030 first (with LAL swap option) to Orlando and keeps the LAL 2029 first?

Closing lineup of AD, PJ, Suggs, Kyrie with whichever of the three cheap hard workers is playing best that night (Christie, Naji, Martin)

[Astaluego]

So..

Klay+Lively+Martin to LAL
Rui+Reaves+2025 Dallas first+??? to Orlando
Suggs to Dallas

Dallas owe the LAL 2029 first? LAL owe their 2031 first? LAL just owes a 2030 swap and Dallas sends the 2030 first (with LAL swap option) to Orlando and keeps the LAL 2029 first?

Closing lineup of AD, PJ, Suggs, Kyrie with whichever of the three cheap hard workers is playing best that night (Christie, Naji, Martin)

I would, but I think we'll trade for KD. Lively/Gafford/PJ/Klay + Mavs lottery pick to Suns...
KD/Richards to Dallas.

AD/Richards
KD/O-Max
Martín/Marshall
Christie
KI

G. Allen to Orlando (or Houston)

Powell/Hardy/J. Howard + 2/3 SRP from Orlando + 1 from Mavs.

Suns get the savings to move off the 2nd apron