2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[Peregrine01]

Watching OKC play defense makes me wonder if the NBA allowed aggressive hand checking again.

It always has been allowed in practice, people just mythologized it weirdly

They get away with it more than any other team I’ve seen this year. It’s weird what the NBA allows and don’t allow.

[lethalizer]

Watching OKC play defense makes me wonder if the NBA allowed aggressive hand checking again.

It always has been allowed in practice, people just mythologized it weirdly

They get away with it more than any other team I’ve seen this year. It’s weird what the NBA allows and don’t allow.

OKC's FTA Rate is 29th. When it comes to their opponents? They allow the third highest FTA rate in the league.

Yeah they play aggressive defense, but as a team they struggle to get to the line themselves and give up tons of fouls too on the other hand. Been a theme all season. A single game here or there doesn't really change the overall theme.

[bigboi]

Shai flat out looked better than Jokic. These bs box stats have some of you fooled lmao. Jokic is center version of Westbrook. I’ll always give him props for the finals run but other than that. Lmao. Shai is the best player in basketball rn.

I don’t understand this. Jokic is 2nd in career RAPM which doesn’t look at the box score at all https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

Man, Jokic is awful defensively and it doesn’t get talked about enough. Is he worse than Luka on defense?

[parsnips33]

Would be awesome if the Wolves could stop winning

[Peregrine01]

Would be awesome if the Wolves could stop winning

Randle’s been their best player by far during this stretch. Giving him the ball turned their season around.

[AEnigma]

Would be awesome if the Wolves could stop winning

Randle’s been their best player by far during this stretch. Giving him the ball turned their season around.

Second sentence is reasonable to some degree, first is unequivocally not. McDaniels is the one who has taken a real leap over this stretch, and Edwards is still generally playing at an all-NBA level.

[Special_Puppy]

Shai flat out looked better than Jokic. These bs box stats have some of you fooled lmao. Jokic is center version of Westbrook. I’ll always give him props for the finals run but other than that. Lmao. Shai is the best player in basketball rn.

I don’t understand this. Jokic is 2nd in career RAPM which doesn’t look at the box score at all https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

Man, Jokic is awful defensively and it doesn’t get talked about enough. Is he worse than Luka on defense?

He’s a -2.1 in career defensive RAPM (negative is better)

[Dr Positivity]

I'm still confused how the Cavs have 70 Ws in play instead of being around level of 2021 Jazz (59 W pace) as absolute best case scenario for this non MVP candidate core breaking out this year.

[RCM88x]

I'm still confused how the Cavs have 70 Ws in play instead of being around level of 2021 Jazz (59 W pace) as absolute best case scenario for this non MVP candidate core breaking out this year.

As am I.

Hot shooting can explain a bit of it, so can surprise depth, so can great in-game coaching. But 70 win pace is way above a lot of that. TBF their SRS indicates "only" 65-66 win pace, which isn't as crazy. That Jazz team by SRS was 62-63 win pace and underperformed that by quite a bit, while the Cavs have overperformed theirs.

Saw a reddit post the other day about the Cavs being 8-10 when trailing after 3 quarters (47-0 when leading), which is historically great.

My take, they're going to struggle a bit in the playoffs, I'm skeptical they've actually solved the issues that cropped up in the last two years. But I'd still be surprised/disappointed if they don't at least make it to G6 of the ECF, they just have so much talent and really outside of Boston no team feels threatening.

[parsnips33]

Gonna see Jimmy in person for the first time tonight

Also you know how I feel about jinxes, but maybe Steph's 4,000th 3 pointer?

[Lou Fan]

Has there ever been a time where you could argue so many different people as top 10 players in the league? I think it's pretty universal who the best 4 players are (5 when Embiid is healthy) but after that it's pretty amazing how many guys are all right around the same level.

[parsnips33]

Gonna see Jimmy in person for the first time tonight

Also you know how I feel about jinxes, but maybe Steph's 4,000th 3 pointer?

What a game!!

Incredibly grateful to whoever established the "Steph must play with 2 HOFers" rule, our lives would not be the same without you

[tsherkin]

I'm still confused how the Cavs have 70 Ws in play instead of being around level of 2021 Jazz (59 W pace) as absolute best case scenario for this non MVP candidate core breaking out this year.

As am I.

Hot shooting can explain a bit of it, so can surprise depth, so can great in-game coaching. But 70 win pace is way above a lot of that. TBF their SRS indicates "only" 65-66 win pace, which isn't as crazy. That Jazz team by SRS was 62-63 win pace and underperformed that by quite a bit, while the Cavs have overperformed theirs.

Saw a reddit post the other day about the Cavs being 8-10 when trailing after 3 quarters (47-0 when leading), which is historically great.

My take, they're going to struggle a bit in the playoffs, I'm skeptical they've actually solved the issues that cropped up in the last two years. But I'd still be surprised/disappointed if they don't at least make it to G6 of the ECF, they just have so much talent and really outside of Boston no team feels threatening.

I'm on this train. They are entirely too reliant upon the 3pt shot, but if they are able to leverage their D and their opponents just can't hack it or hit a shooting slump like Dallas did against Boston, then they are about as able as anyone in the league to get it done. I think OKC takes them, but I wouldn't treat them lightly in a 7-game series. They're pretty nasty.

[RCM88x]

I'm still confused how the Cavs have 70 Ws in play instead of being around level of 2021 Jazz (59 W pace) as absolute best case scenario for this non MVP candidate core breaking out this year.

As am I.

Hot shooting can explain a bit of it, so can surprise depth, so can great in-game coaching. But 70 win pace is way above a lot of that. TBF their SRS indicates "only" 65-66 win pace, which isn't as crazy. That Jazz team by SRS was 62-63 win pace and underperformed that by quite a bit, while the Cavs have overperformed theirs.

Saw a reddit post the other day about the Cavs being 8-10 when trailing after 3 quarters (47-0 when leading), which is historically great.

My take, they're going to struggle a bit in the playoffs, I'm skeptical they've actually solved the issues that cropped up in the last two years. But I'd still be surprised/disappointed if they don't at least make it to G6 of the ECF, they just have so much talent and really outside of Boston no team feels threatening.

I'm on this train. They are entirely too reliant upon the 3pt shot, but if they are able to leverage their D and their opponents just can't hack it or hit a shooting slump like Dallas did against Boston, then they are about as able as anyone in the league to get it done. I think OKC takes them, but I wouldn't treat them lightly in a 7-game series. They're pretty nasty.

I think they've done a decent job of becoming a bit more balanced recently, bit more defense, bit less live & die by the 3. Could be unintentional but perhaps it's been a conscious change by the coaching staff to try and prepare for the playoffs. But yeah, I think they rank pretty high on the "fraudulent scale" when it comes to 10 SRS teams. As much as I've loved watching this team, it's hard to really take them seriously after the last two playoffs and knowing what it takes to be a true contender from the Lebron years.

[lessthanjake]

Cavaliers are a tough team to gauge.

On one hand, they seem to fit the bill of a team that does really well in the regular season but doesn’t have a major superstar and is more of an ensemble cast. Those sorts of teams tend to almost always do a lot worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. At the same time, though, those sorts of teams historically don’t put up a 10+ SRS, and the teams that do put up that kind of SRS are basically always championship teams. In fact, I believe all but one 10+ SRS team in history either won the title that year (which is what usually happens) or won it in a directly surrounding year (and the exception to this is the 2016 Spurs, who won it two years earlier). Of course, it seems like there will probably be two 10+ SRS teams this year, and they can’t both win it, but a team doing *that* well feels like something that pretty much has to be reflective of something real that translates to the postseason. Or at least historically it always has.

So I’m torn. I see markers of a team that I’d expect to disappoint in the playoffs, but also markers of a team that I’d assume will do great in the playoffs. I think where I land on this is that the Cavaliers are definitely capable of winning the title and should be the second-favorite (I’d definitely have them behind the Thunder), but if they’re going to win I think they’ll need Donovan Mitchell to play like a genuine star in the playoffs. Mitchell has shown himself to be really capable of doing that, though, so that doesn’t feel like hugely wishful thinking.

[Statlanta]

Cavaliers are a tough team to gauge.

On one hand, they seem to fit the bill of a team that does really well in the regular season but doesn’t have a major superstar and is more of an ensemble cast. Those sorts of teams tend to almost always do a lot worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. At the same time, though, those sorts of teams historically don’t put up a 10+ SRS, and the teams that do put up that kind of SRS are basically always championship teams. In fact, I believe all but one 10+ SRS team in history either won the title that year (which is what usually happens) or won it in a directly surrounding year (and the exception to this is the 2016 Spurs, who won it two years earlier). Of course, it seems like there will probably be two 10+ SRS teams this year, and they can’t both win it, but a team doing *that* well feels like something that pretty much has to be reflective of something real that translates to the postseason. Or at least historically it always has.

So I’m torn. I see markers of a team that I’d expect to disappoint in the playoffs, but also markers of a team that I’d assume will do great in the playoffs. I think where I land on this is that the Cavaliers are definitely capable of winning the title and should be the second-favorite (I’d definitely have them behind the Thunder), but if they’re going to win I think they’ll need Donovan Mitchell to play like a genuine star in the playoffs. Mitchell has shown himself to be really capable of doing that, though, so that doesn’t feel like hugely wishful thinking.

I don't think they are a tough team to gauge. I don't see the Cavaliers as those dominant 10 SRS teams of the past despite their team statistics. In history only the 71 Lakers and 16 Warriors have not won while having a 10 SRS. I think having a 10SRS in post 2010 era is boosted by the 3pt shot which impacts the MOV a lot especially in an era of load management where teams decide to save their players health to fight another game. If you were that dominate in prior eras without big volatile 3pt scoring swings it usually meant insurmountable dominance but now it does not(hence the 2016 Warriors example of losing to a sub 10 SRS team whereas the 71 Lakers lost to another 10SRS team in the Bucks).

I think the 2025 Cavaliers path is similar to the 2016 Spurs who lost to the 2016 Thunder team that had more talent but lost way more games in the RS. It's much like how everyone saw the 2009 Cavaliers as a contender(during the time they were winning as opposed to now) due to their win total when in hindsight they lacked the talent.

[eminence]

2016 Spurs were +10 as well

[lessthanjake]

Cavaliers are a tough team to gauge.

On one hand, they seem to fit the bill of a team that does really well in the regular season but doesn’t have a major superstar and is more of an ensemble cast. Those sorts of teams tend to almost always do a lot worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. At the same time, though, those sorts of teams historically don’t put up a 10+ SRS, and the teams that do put up that kind of SRS are basically always championship teams. In fact, I believe all but one 10+ SRS team in history either won the title that year (which is what usually happens) or won it in a directly surrounding year (and the exception to this is the 2016 Spurs, who won it two years earlier). Of course, it seems like there will probably be two 10+ SRS teams this year, and they can’t both win it, but a team doing *that* well feels like something that pretty much has to be reflective of something real that translates to the postseason. Or at least historically it always has.

So I’m torn. I see markers of a team that I’d expect to disappoint in the playoffs, but also markers of a team that I’d assume will do great in the playoffs. I think where I land on this is that the Cavaliers are definitely capable of winning the title and should be the second-favorite (I’d definitely have them behind the Thunder), but if they’re going to win I think they’ll need Donovan Mitchell to play like a genuine star in the playoffs. Mitchell has shown himself to be really capable of doing that, though, so that doesn’t feel like hugely wishful thinking.

I don't think they are a tough team to gauge. I don't see the Cavaliers as those dominant 10 SRS teams of the past despite their team statistics. In history only the 71 Lakers and 16 Warriors have not won while having a 10 SRS. I think having a 10SRS in post 2010 era is boosted by the 3pt shot which impacts the MOV a lot especially in an era of load management where teams decide to save their players health to fight another game. If you were that dominate in prior eras without big volatile 3pt scoring swings it usually meant insurmountable dominance but now it does not(hence the 2016 Warriors example of losing to a sub 10 SRS team whereas the 71 Lakers lost to another 10SRS team in the Bucks).

I think the 2025 Cavaliers path is similar to the 2016 Spurs who lost to the 2016 Thunder team that had more talent but lost way more games in the RS. It's much like how everyone saw the 2009 Cavaliers as a contender(during the time they were winning as opposed to now) due to their win total when in hindsight they lacked the talent.

People said the same sorts of things about the Celtics last year when they had a 10+ SRS, and they proceeded to win the championship going 16-3 in the playoffs.

[bigboi]

I don’t understand this. Jokic is 2nd in career RAPM which doesn’t look at the box score at all https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

Man, Jokic is awful defensively and it doesn’t get talked about enough. Is he worse than Luka on defense?

He’s a -2.1 in career defensive RAPM (negative is better)

I don’t care what the rapm is. We can pull up actual game tape and see how bad his defense is. He was absolute food against Minny. Dude is by far one of the laziest defenders in the league. Those same stats had a whole lot of you calling Luka an average defender until he got completely exposed in the finals as a turnstile. I’m tired of folks on this forum blatantly lying about players that they like. Jokic is ATG on offense but all time bad on defense. That’s just what it is

[Special_Puppy]

Man, Jokic is awful defensively and it doesn’t get talked about enough. Is he worse than Luka on defense?

He’s a -2.1 in career defensive RAPM (negative is better)

I don’t care what the rapm is. We can pull up actual game tape and see how bad his defense is. He was absolute food against Minny. Dude is by far one of the laziest defenders in the league. Those same stats had a whole lot of you calling Luka an average defender until he got completely exposed in the finals as a turnstile. I’m tired of folks on this forum blatantly lying about players that they like. Jokic is ATG on offense but all time bad on defense. That’s just what it is

For a lot of people, the eye test is just the NBA version of "because I said so" or "Trust me Bro". "Jokic is a bad defender. Why? Trust me bro. Watch the tape"