Bears 11.0: Free Agency, College Pro days, Draft & beyond

[dice]

Hope we avoid shiny new toy syndrome and make the most of our pick in the first round. Hopefully this is the last time we have a top 10 pick for a very long time. Hopefully Poles doesn’t spend it On RBs TEs or Safeties. Trench warfare wins championships. We sign a few guys and people think it’s enough. It’s never enough we want to be in a position where we’re rotating studs in on both sides of the ball continually and endlessly.

1) if i never hear the words 'trench' or 'trenches' again in a football context it will be too soon

2) stud QBs are obviously the biggest factor in winning titles. babying our young QB by investing endlessly on the offensive side to "support" him does not help him become a stud

3) good safeties are analytically more important to winning than good linemen. the 2023 and 2024 eagles are the perfect example. main difference was the secondary. 2023 team lost 5 of their last 6 in reg. season by an avg. of 10+ points because of their secondary. then they got blitzed by the bucs in the playoffs. their strong D-line didn't do **** to make the depleted secondary look good. what did they do? they drafted 2 stud corners. they brought in a good safety in gardner-johnson who played well on a reasonable contract. 180 degree turnaround and championship

A dominant defensive line will make our linebackers and secondary play elite.

can easily say the exact opposite as well. can't get to the QB if receivers are regularly open. and designed quick release passes neuter a strong D-line

To let up on either side of it would be a huge mistake and a waste of money resources and draft picks.

overloading any position group is what is wasteful (see bears 2024 receiving corps). overpaying guys is wasteful. trading draft picks for fairly paid players and/or expiring contracts is wasteful (sweat, allen, bates, thuney, jackson)

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Hope we avoid shiny new toy syndrome and make the most of our pick in the first round. Hopefully this is the last time we have a top 10 pick for a very long time. Hopefully Poles doesn’t spend it On RBs TEs or Safeties. Trench warfare wins championships. We sign a few guys and people think it’s enough. It’s never enough we want to be in a position where we’re rotating studs in on both sides of the ball continually and endlessly.

1) if i never hear the words 'trench' or 'trenches' again in a football context it will be too soon

2) stud QBs are obviously the biggest factor in winning titles. babying our young QB by investing endlessly on the offensive side to "support" him does not help him become a stud

3) good safeties are analytically more important to winning than good linemen. the 2023 and 2024 eagles are the perfect example. main difference was the secondary. 2023 team lost 5 of their last 6 in reg. season by an avg. of 10+ points because of their secondary. then they got blitzed by the bucs in the playoffs. their strong D-line didn't do **** to make the depleted secondary look good. what did they do? they drafted 2 stud corners. they brought in a good safety in gardner-johnson who played well on a reasonable contract. 180 degree turnaround and championship

A dominant defensive line will make our linebackers and secondary play elite.

can easily say the exact opposite as well. can't get to the QB if receivers are regularly open. and designed quick release passes neuter a strong D-line

To let up on either side of it would be a huge mistake and a waste of money resources and draft picks.

overloading any position group is what is wasteful (see bears 2024 receiving corps). overpaying guys is wasteful. trading draft picks for fairly paid players and/or expiring contracts is wasteful (sweat, allen, bates, thuney, jackson)

All things considered. How would you approach the draft and why?

[dice]

Hope we avoid shiny new toy syndrome and make the most of our pick in the first round. Hopefully this is the last time we have a top 10 pick for a very long time. Hopefully Poles doesn’t spend it On RBs TEs or Safeties. Trench warfare wins championships. We sign a few guys and people think it’s enough. It’s never enough we want to be in a position where we’re rotating studs in on both sides of the ball continually and endlessly.

1) if i never hear the words 'trench' or 'trenches' again in a football context it will be too soon

2) stud QBs are obviously the biggest factor in winning titles. babying our young QB by investing endlessly on the offensive side to "support" him does not help him become a stud

3) good safeties are analytically more important to winning than good linemen. the 2023 and 2024 eagles are the perfect example. main difference was the secondary. 2023 team lost 5 of their last 6 in reg. season by an avg. of 10+ points because of their secondary. then they got blitzed by the bucs in the playoffs. their strong D-line didn't do **** to make the depleted secondary look good. what did they do? they drafted 2 stud corners. they brought in a good safety in gardner-johnson who played well on a reasonable contract. 180 degree turnaround and championship

A dominant defensive line will make our linebackers and secondary play elite.

can easily say the exact opposite as well. can't get to the QB if receivers are regularly open. and designed quick release passes neuter a strong D-line

To let up on either side of it would be a huge mistake and a waste of money resources and draft picks.

overloading any position group is what is wasteful (see bears 2024 receiving corps). overpaying guys is wasteful. trading draft picks for fairly paid players and/or expiring contracts is wasteful (sweat, allen, bates, thuney, jackson)

All things considered. How would you approach the draft and why?

hard to say. i'd certainly be open to WR or secondary as early as the 1st pick though. i don't see the point of taking an OT projected to be a guard at #10. or what might be a rotational EDGE given the perplexing big $ signing of odeyingbo. need depth pretty much everywhere

[Dresden]

Hope we avoid shiny new toy syndrome and make the most of our pick in the first round. Hopefully this is the last time we have a top 10 pick for a very long time. Hopefully Poles doesn’t spend it On RBs TEs or Safeties. Trench warfare wins championships. We sign a few guys and people think it’s enough. It’s never enough we want to be in a position where we’re rotating studs in on both sides of the ball continually and endlessly.

A dominant line makes everything on offense possible. Johnson wants to get cute with the play calling it doesn’t happen with out a dominant offensive line

A dominant defensive line will make our linebackers and secondary play elite. To let up on either side of it would be a huge mistake and a waste of money resources and draft picks.

Good points but a potent offense that can put up points while eating up the clock will keep the defense fresh. At #10 I want a difference maker who has the potential to eventually be the best player at his position or close to it. I don't think the trench guys available at #10 are that much better than guys we could get in the 2nd round. I say get us a playmaker. Warren at #10 or Emmanwori on a trade down. Then add an OT, a DT and a RB in Round 2.

https://www.thesportsappeal.com/post-history/another-look-at-nfl-positional-value

That was an interesting article. I didn't read all of it, but I had some good tidbits in it. I would still prefer trading down, but if we stay put, I'd lean towards OT and Edge or DT. Edge in particular seems like a need- we don't know how good Dayo is going to be, and Montez is approaching 30 years old (or maybe he's reached it already). In any case, if we can get a quality Edge at 10, that's probably my first choice. Then either OT or DT. Just keep building those trenches.

Use 2nd round picks for RB, safety, CB, etc.

[Almost Retired]

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2025/3/15/24386659/mocking-the-mocks-chicago-bears-7-round-mock-from-pro-football-sports-quinshon-judkins-armand-membou

[patryk7754]

I think TE might be our biggest need and possibly be best pick to make in the first. I think it ultimately comes down to TE or LT. We have our starters in place at every position. TE2 is not on the roster and that could align with best player available at 10 or anywhere we pick. Whoever we pick, has to be a day one contributor - even if it’s as a rotational guy. I’m not really interested in drafting an offensive lineman to be a back up guard or center for two/three years. Mizzous RT might be the best lineman in the draft but it doesn’t make much sense for us to draft him. Moving him to LT will be very difficult and potentially wasteful.

Overall, I think the best things to target would be TE, DL, someone to come with Braxton at LT, and to a lesser extent, secondary.

[patryk7754]

basically, my top targets would be Warren, Graham, or best available DE. My only issue with DE is that we can draft just as good of a DE in the second as in the 1st and we have our two starters in place for 2/3 years and a 1st round DE would expect to be starter sooner than later. Warren would be a regular, day one contributor, even as a backup and eventually take over for Kmet as TE1. Graham could be the best player in the draft. He can compete with Dexter as starter and eventually take over full time for Jarret. The only thing that would prevent me from drafting him would be the cost of trading up for him.

Honorable mention would be a guy who could compete for LT. My top choice might be Donovan Jackson (after trading back). At worst, he’d be our OG of the future, but his high level play at LT to finish out the season suggests he might be able to play there at the NFL level

[fleet]

That Tyler Warren vibe is going around. You can feel it. It’s understandable if it went down. I wouldn’t hate it. I’m “trusting” Ben’s vision for the long term

[Dresden]

I think TE might be our biggest need and possibly be best pick to make in the first. I think it ultimately comes down to TE or LT. We have our starters in place at every position. TE2 is not on the roster and that could align with best player available at 10 or anywhere we pick. Whoever we pick, has to be a day one contributor - even if it’s as a rotational guy. I’m not really interested in drafting an offensive lineman to be a back up guard or center for two/three years. Mizzous RT might be the best lineman in the draft but it doesn’t make much sense for us to draft him. Moving him to LT will be very difficult and potentially wasteful.

Overall, I think the best things to target would be TE, DL, someone to come with Braxton at LT, and to a lesser extent, secondary.

I can see both sides of this- you want to draft someone that will play right away, but OTOH, taking a LT makes a lot of sense too. Do you want to pay Braxton 20-25M next season when he hits FA? If not, taking a LT would be a good move- it would save them from taking a big cap hit, which they could use instead to re-sign Thuney or something like that.

I'm also not sold on our DT's. This guy from the Falcons is getting up in age. Dexter seems ok, but will he be a standout? We could invest another pick there.

And then there's CB- what do they think of Tyrique? He graded pretty poorly last year. Is it time to move on from him? A lot of CB's are taken in the first round.

I could also see Jeanty. I think he would have more of an impact than Warren. I would prefer waiting to round 2 to take a RB, but Jeanty might be that guy that makes you break the rules about taking a RB so early.

[moorhosj]

Top 2024 spenders on offensive line:
1. Rams - $62m
2. Chiefs - $61m

For spending on the entire offense, 1. Rams spent $176m, 2. Chiefs spent $155m, and 4. Bengals spent $129m. Even taking out their large QB contracts and those are heavy investments to baby hall-of-fame level QBs.
https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

[patryk7754]

That Tyler Warren vibe is going around. You can feel it. It’s understandable if it went down. I wouldn’t hate it. I’m “trusting” Ben’s vision for the long term

I’m heavy on Warren for a few reasons. 1. He’s probably going to be the best available player. It’s unlikely there are 5-10 better players than him in this draft. We also need a TE and kind of suspiciously, it’s been ignore by poles. Lastly, Warren just seems like a Ben Johnson guy. I’ve felt for a while (even before we hired BJ) like if Johnson was going to be our HC then Warren would be the main target in the 1st. I just feel like if they are satisfied with what they’ve done on the lines, then Warren will be the guy. I feel the same way about Henderson at RB. Just feel like his skill sets and strengths fit Johnson’s game plan almost perfectly

[Almost Retired]

That Tyler Warren vibe is going around. You can feel it. It’s understandable if it went down. I wouldn’t hate it. I’m “trusting” Ben’s vision for the long term

I’m heavy on Warren for a few reasons. 1. He’s probably going to be the best available player. It’s unlikely there are 5-10 better players than him in this draft. We also need a TE and kind of suspiciously, it’s been ignore by poles. Lastly, Warren just seems like a Ben Johnson guy. I’ve felt for a while (even before we hired BJ) like if Johnson was going to be our HC then Warren would be the main target in the 1st. I just feel like if they are satisfied with what they’ve done on the lines, then Warren will be the guy. I feel the same way about Henderson at RB. Just feel like his skill sets and strengths fit Johnson’s game plan almost perfectly

There are only 2 guys I think would make an immediate impact....Warren and Emmanwori. None of the D-Line or O-Line guys that are going to be available to us would probably start in Year 1. And we can get depth guys in the 2nd round or lower. For Warren we'd have to grab him at #10 if he's even still on the board. For Emmanwori we could trade down a few spots, but not many. Jeanty would be a nice addition but we can get a productive bruising RB in Round 2 or 3. A guy like Quinshon Judkins or Kaleb Johnson. A battering ram for short yardage situations, scoring inside the red zone, etc. I wish we had another 2nd round pick and a 4th rounder as well.

[Jvaughn]

That Tyler Warren vibe is going around. You can feel it. It’s understandable if it went down. I wouldn’t hate it. I’m “trusting” Ben’s vision for the long term

I really feel like Kmet can be dominant in this offense if he and Caleb find some better chemistry in a good system. I'm not sure Warren would be the best use of a top 10 pick. I admit I didn't watch a ton of him this year, but do we really think his addition would be that
much more impactful than what Kmet can bring?

[Jimako10]

I'm coming around on Warren, granted that he really is this Kelce/Gronk type athlete. I also think in today's shell defense era, having a elite receiving TE could be as impactful as having an elite WR, while an elite WR would take up twice as much cap room. I know I'm picking Bowers if I could redo last years draft.

[dice]

Top 2024 spenders on offensive line:
1. Rams - $62m
2. Chiefs - $61m

For spending on the entire offense, 1. Rams spent $176m, 2. Chiefs spent $155m, and 4. Bengals spent $129m. Even taking out their large QB contracts and those are heavy investments to baby hall-of-fame level QBs.

none of those investments made the HOF QB better. in fact, neither the chiefs nor rams, despite their HOF QBs and heavy O-line investments, had a top 10 offense! rams O-line performance wasn't much better than the bears. and the chiefs O-line, while maybe a top 5 unit, still got abused in the super bowl. DENVER had the best o-line and a solid rookie QB performance, yet had a below average offense. what held back all 3 offenses? receiver issues

there have been super bowl champions w/ HOF QBs and bad O-lines

there was about a 45% correlation last season between team success and O-line quality (0% being meaningless, 100% being all-important). so it's certainly helpful, but hardly essential, to have a top unit there

the bears will be better in 2025. very likely on both sides of the ball. might even make the playoffs. but that should have happened last year. and the arrow will not continue to point up in 2026 and beyond unless caleb (and ben) prove their own value on the field. the poor quality of the personnel decisions made to date will be made more obvious starting next offseason. as they were for the previous ryan after the pop-up season of 2018

trubisky had a productive sophomore season. so did fields. both regressed in year 3 and were soon gone. hopefully the same does not happen w/ caleb

[dice]

Emmanwori is my Number 1 target in the First round. But I could also get real excited to add Tyler Warren. I want playmakers that project to be potential All-Pro level players. Warren fits that description. And Ben Johnson like to utilize 2 tight end sets.

so did waldron. so poles brought in everett to appease him. flop. just like he brought in edmunds to appease flus. flop. and now jackson to appease johnson. including an unearned extension. flop? wish poles would learn the lessons

[MAQ]

That Tyler Warren vibe is going around. You can feel it. It’s understandable if it went down. I wouldn’t hate it. I’m “trusting” Ben’s vision for the long term

I really feel like Kmet can be dominant in this offense if he and Caleb find some better chemistry in a good system. I'm not sure Warren would be the best use of a top 10 pick. I admit I didn't watch a ton of him this year, but do we really think his addition would be that
much more impactful than what Kmet can bring?

What are the chances kmet could be traded for a 1st or 2nd rounder? That way the pick of Warren doesn't feel like that much of a waste.

[MAQ]

Top 2024 spenders on offensive line:
1. Rams - $62m
2. Chiefs - $61m

For spending on the entire offense, 1. Rams spent $176m, 2. Chiefs spent $155m, and 4. Bengals spent $129m. Even taking out their large QB contracts and those are heavy investments to baby hall-of-fame level QBs.

none of those investments made the HOF QB better. in fact, neither the chiefs nor rams, despite their HOF QBs and heavy O-line investments, had a top 10 offense! rams O-line performance wasn't much better than the bears. and the chiefs O-line, while maybe a top 5 unit, still got abused in the super bowl. DENVER had the best o-line and a solid rookie QB performance, yet had a below average offense. what held back all 3 offenses? receiver issues

there have been super bowl champions w/ HOF QBs and bad O-lines

Is it your opinion that there is only 1 way to build a superbowl contending team.

Or perhaps, is it your view that spending money on offensive linemen is a bad way to build a team?

[Jvaughn]

That Tyler Warren vibe is going around. You can feel it. It’s understandable if it went down. I wouldn’t hate it. I’m “trusting” Ben’s vision for the long term

I really feel like Kmet can be dominant in this offense if he and Caleb find some better chemistry in a good system. I'm not sure Warren would be the best use of a top 10 pick. I admit I didn't watch a ton of him this year, but do we really think his addition would be that
much more impactful than what Kmet can bring?

What are the chances kmet could be traded for a 1st or 2nd rounder? That way the pick of Warren doesn't feel like that much of a waste.

Probably closer to 3rd or 4th unfortunately.

[dice]

Top 2024 spenders on offensive line:
1. Rams - $62m
2. Chiefs - $61m

For spending on the entire offense, 1. Rams spent $176m, 2. Chiefs spent $155m, and 4. Bengals spent $129m. Even taking out their large QB contracts and those are heavy investments to baby hall-of-fame level QBs.

none of those investments made the HOF QB better. in fact, neither the chiefs nor rams, despite their HOF QBs and heavy O-line investments, had a top 10 offense! rams O-line performance wasn't much better than the bears. and the chiefs O-line, while maybe a top 5 unit, still got abused in the super bowl. DENVER had the best o-line and a solid rookie QB performance, yet had a below average offense. what held back all 3 offenses? receiver issues

there have been super bowl champions w/ HOF QBs and bad O-lines

Is it your opinion that there is only 1 way to build a superbowl contending team.

Or perhaps, is it your view that spending money on offensive linemen is a bad way to build a team?

because in the long run every team has the same salary constraints, the only way to build a consistently winning team is to pay players less than they are worth. or to put it another way, getting players to produce at a level higher than their contract value. meaning star QBs, rookie contracts, and FAs beyond day 1, typically. there are infinite combinations that will work. but paying non-QB stars (or anyone else) what they are worth does NOT move the needle. star chasing via trade or free agency does NOT work - and in the case of trading picks is counterproductive

alternately, if you're just focused on championships, you can roll over a lot of cap space for a couple of years and then blow other teams out of the water with your spending while also spending wisely. then cut costs dramatically and start over again. i can't imagine any GM would go that route, though