Where do Wiz #1 draft picks rank historically?

[Wiz99]

With us hopefully getting the #1 pick in this year's draft I’m wondering how our #1 picks this century stack against everyone else’s #1 picks. Based on what teams actually got in performance over these players whole careers. I didn’t overly punish guys who had a few years of good to very good play followed by a much less stellar rest of career (hello Ben Simmons, Derrick Rose, Kenyon Martin). I did give some serious points to guys who are very new to the association but displaying exciting potential without a ceiling in view yet (hiya Wemby, Edward’s and now Cade).

Thoughts? Fair to put Wall at #10? Who’d I rank too high or low?

1. LeBron CLE 2003: Has to be #1 on this list. 4x NBA champ (brought his team to 6 more finals). 4x MVP (13 consecutive years among top 5 in voting). 19 All NBA teams (13 1st team). All star very season except his 1st and with hindsight we know that was an error. League highest VORP 9x PER 6x WS 5x. He’s 40 and still averaging 25/8/8.
2. Wemby SAS 2023: not been around long enough to make/win championships but he sure seems to be an all time great-caliber talent and that’s why I put him 2nd.
3. Anthony Edwards MIN 2020: he’s this high b/c I don’t think we’ve seen his ceiling yet. 7th in MVP voting 1x, all nba 2nd team 1x, all star 3x, 24/5/4 over 1st 5 seasons, seems to have that killer instinct to potentially be a transcendent player.
4. Cade Cunningham DET 2021: 26/6/9 this year is super exciting, suggests his ceiling may be higher than we’ve seen yet. 1x All Star. Doesn’t come with the baggage of being a difficult guy to have like the next 2 vets.
5. Kyrie Irving CLE 2011: 3x all NBA, 9x all star, 1x champ (with LeBron). PER >20 every year. >4 WS 9/13 seasons. But availability an issue: Only played >60 games 4x in 13 seasons so far. And his head is in a different place: far from a great teammate at times eg BOS and BRK.
6. Dwight Howard ORL 2004: Top 5 MVP voting 4x. 3x DPOY. 8x all NBA. 5x All D team. 8x all star. Averaged 16/12. But known negative value in locker room, his teams mostly underperformed. 1x Champ but very late in career where he wasn’t the main guy at all anymore. If you were doing this ranking in 2000 you’d have Howard over some guys above him. But given how the game has evolved away from the C position in 2025 you might even put him lower than this.
7. Anthony Davis NOH 2012: 10x all star. 5x All NBA Defense. 5x all NBA. 1x champ (with LeBron). Durability is the major issue: only played >60 games 2x since he turned 25.
8. Yao Ming HOU 2002: all star every year in Association but that was only 8 seasons b/c of injuries. On 5 All NBA 2nd or 3rd teams, but his Rockets teams never got out of 2nd round of playoffs. Averaged 19&9. Best guys he played with were McGrady and Steve Francis who weren’t world beaters so that didn’t help.
9. Blake Griffin LAC 2009: Great 1st 5 seasons: top 10 MVP voting 3x (as high as 3rd), all nba 2nd or 3rd 4x, 5x all star. Then had a 6 year stretch where injury took his explosiveness and ability to play most games but he still averaged 22/7 and had 1 all star selection. Then a final 4 years where he declined further.
10. John Wall WAS 2010: another tale of talent overcome by injury. 2010-16 he was 5x all star, 1x all D, and in that 2016 season he was 7th MVP voting and 3rd team all nba. Elevated Wizards to 2nd round in playoffs 3x when franchise hadn’t been there but 1x for 29 years. Then his Achilles went and he lost his biggest asset (explosiveness) and never played more than 40 games in a season.
11. Paolo Banchero: this might not be fair but I think we’ve seen enough to know he won’t be top banana on a contender. Struggling right now to be more specific. I’d need to watch more game footage.
12. KAT MIN 2015: 3rd team all NBA 3x, 5x all star. But no one ever accused him of being a mentally locked-in player or a leader. Kind of a top-end empty stats guy so far in his career.
13. Derrick Rose CHI 2008: Great start to career ruined by injury after 3 seasons. 1x MVP, 1x 1st team all nba, 3x all star, ROY. I’d rather have 1 MVP season where everything might come together for a championship run with him at the helm.
14. Ben Simmons PHI 2016: In the end I’d rather have his 1st 4 quite good seasons, even with the terrible tale of the rest of his career. 2017-20 Simmons averaged 16/8/8, top 5 DPOY voting 2x, 3rd team all NBA 1x, all star 3x. That’s why I’ve got him above the players below him that never attained those heights.
15. Kenyon Martin NJN 2000: had good 1st 4 years in the Association (1 all star appearance, important supporting cast member on 2 finals teams, averaged 15&8) but then turned into a respectable journeyman (WS >2 for next 6 seasons). Did play 15 seasons which counts for something.
16. Zion Williamson NOP 2019: 2 all star selections but serious availability issues (<30 games played in 3/5 seasons in the association). Pattern suggests the substantial talent he had coming into NBA won’t ever blossom fully.
17. Andrew Bogut MIL 2005: 1x champ with Warriors. 1x All NBA. Good defensive player (4x top 10 in DPOY voting). Averaged 10/9 over career.
18. Andrew Wiggins CLE 2014: had 1 good year (21-22) where he was all star and played well in the finals for GSW. Otherwise kind of an empty stats guy (20/5 VORP >1 just 4x).
19. Deandre Ayton PHO 2018: So far he’s got good stats (16/11) but head clearly not where you’d want it to be as far as a competitor. Looks like he’ll end up as an empty stats guy. No all star appearances.
20. Andrea Bargnani TOR 2006: Toronto gave him the keys a couple years and he averaged 19/5 those seasons, but Toronto was in bottom 1/4 of league those years and they’re otherwise an anomaly in his career. Most of his 10 seasons he underperformed. Never part of a championship contender. Never an all star.
21. Rissacher ATL 2024: A little unfair b/c he’s not even finished 1 NBA season but that’s enough to definitively conclude he’s not an all time great talent a la Wemby (no one thought he was coming into the draft) but his performance (12&4 w/ .346 from 3) suggests he can at minimum have a decent NBA career.
22. Kwame Brown WAS 2001: disappointing (never averaged >11&7, only 1x PER >15) but he did have a 12-year career in the Association (just 4 of those WS >2). He was useful, and that’s something that separates him from the guys below.
23. Markelle Fultz PHI 2017: Damn those yips. Only played >60 games 1x in 8 seasons. Averaged 12/5. Just one “good” season (ORL 22-23).
24. Anthony Bennet CLE 2013: only played 4 seasons and was crap (averaged 4/4)
25. Greg Oden POR 2007: sad story, seemed to have all time great talent but really played just 1 season (3 officially) and never averaged even 10/10.

[queridiculo]

I don't know what to make of this list, I have no idea what the criteria is.

It all seems a bit arbitrary.

Couple of thoughts.

Howard, Rose and Kat are too low.

Cunningham, Edwards, Wemby, Banchero too high, their body of work disqualifies them from being ranked where you put them imho.

Ben Simmons, too high, he's right there with Bennet, Oden and Fultz.

Wall, loved him, but I don't think he deserves to be in the top 10.

He cheated himself and he cheated the franchise with his lack of professionalism.

[payitforward]

Well, for starters, Banchero is waaay too high.
What would make you say his career has been anything to speak of so far?

Banchero posts a below average TS%, a below average 3 pt. %. A below average 2 pt. %. & a below average FT%.

He is -- at best -- an average rebounder for a 4. OTOH, he turns the ball over way more than average while getting fewer steals than average.

The only thing he does is score a lot of points -- which he does by using a whole lot of possessions. Means literally nothing.

To put it another way, Banchero scores 57% more points than average for a PF -- but it takes him 65% more possessions than an average 4 to get it done. That helps your team LOSE games not win them.

Overall, the takeaway is that the #1 pick doesn't reliably yield a really good player!

[payitforward]

...Ben Simmons, too high, he's right there with Bennet, Oden and Fultz. ...

His first four years, Ben Simmons was one of the best players in the league.

[Wiz99]

I don't know what to make of this list, I have no idea what the criteria is. It all seems a bit arbitrary.

Laid it out for you right at the top:

Based on what teams actually got in performance over these players whole careers. I didn’t overly punish guys who had a few years of good to very good play followed by a much less stellar rest of career. I did give some serious points to guys who are very new to the association but displaying exciting potential without a ceiling in view yet

Wall, loved him, but I don't think he deserves to be in the top 10.

So who do you think ought to be above him and why?

[Wiz99]

Well, for starters, Banchero is waaay too high.

Good points about Paolo. I struggled with where to slot him. He ought to go lower. But he’s still a young man and I’d rather have him than, for example, Bogut or Kenyon Martin. So not that much lower.

[nate33]

It's easy for the second half of Dwight's career to overshadow the fact that over his first 8 seasons, he was the best center in the game and probably a top 10-ish center of all time. He single-handedly caried a pretty mediocre Orlando team to the Finals. He should be much higher on this list - certainly above Kyrie, Cade and Edwards.

Assuming we are projecting the likely future success of recent picks, I'd probably go something like this:

1. Lebron
2. Wemby
3. Davis
4. Dwight
5. Cade
6. Edwards
7. Yao
8. Griffin
9. Kyrie
10. KAT
11. Banchero
12. Wall
13. Rose
14. Zion
15. KMart
16. Wiggins
17. Simmons
18. Bogut

I don't really care to rank the rest because they never really mattered.

[Wiz99]

10. KAT
11. Banchero
12. Wall

Nate, what makes you bump KAT over Wall? Wall was the undisputed best ‘Zard when the team went to the second round of the playoffs 3x in 4 years, In his 8 seasons in Minnie the T-wolves only got past the first round 1x and that was Edward’s breakout season. What else is it about KAT that you believe outperforms Wall?

[nate33]

10. KAT
11. Banchero
12. Wall

Nate, what makes you bump KAT over Wall? Wall was the undisputed best ‘Zard when the team went to the second round of the playoffs 3x in 4 years, In his 8 seasons in Minnie the T-wolves only got past the first round 1x and that was Edward’s breakout season. What else is it about KAT that you believe outperforms Wall?

Wall was a 5-time AS and 1-time All-NBA player. He never finished better than 5th in a weak conference, never won 50 games, and his team never mattered.

KAT is a 5-time AS and 2-time All-NBA player in a much harder conference, and he is going to add another all-NBA finish to his resume this year. His Minnesota team last year won 56 games and really mattered. And his NY team this year is on pace for 53 wins. He is currently having his best season at age 29, and there's no reason he can't continue this pace for a few more years. So he'll probably end up as a 7-8 time All-Star and a 3-time All-NBA player before it's done. That's a lot better than Wall.

[nate33]

Well, for starters, Banchero is waaay too high.
What would make you say his career has been anything to speak of so far?

Banchero posts a below average TS%, a below average 3 pt. %. A below average 2 pt. %. & a below average FT%.

He is -- at best -- an average rebounder for a 4. OTOH, he turns the ball over way more than average while getting fewer steals than average.

The only thing he does is score a lot of points -- which he does by using a whole lot of possessions. Means literally nothing.

To put it another way, Banchero scores 57% more points than average for a PF -- but it takes him 65% more possessions than an average 4 to get it done. That helps your team LOSE games not win them.

Overall, the takeaway is that the #1 pick doesn't reliably yield a really good player!

Sometimes, you have to put the spreadsheet away and just recognize that scoring on high volume in this league is really hard and takes a ton of talent. Here's the list of NBA players since 1970 who averaged 25 or more points per game before turning 23:

Elvin Hayes
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
David Thompson
Michael Jordan
Shaquille O'Neal
LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Luka Doncic
Zion Williamson
Paulo Banchero

Admittedly, Banchero's efficiency leaves much to be desired, but he plays on a team with terrible spacing and no other scoring options, and he is still very young. What gives me a lot of confidence in his potential is the fact that he is 3rd in the league in FTA's/min behind only Giannis and SGA. If he gets more spacing around him and improves a bit from 3-point range, he is going to be a star.

I also think his injury has delayed would probably would have been a more convincing breakout season. Instead of 68 games under his belt this year, he has just 34. He may have hit a new level recently. Over his last 17 games, he has averaged 27.7 points on a respectable .593 TS%. Over his last 8 games, he is averaging 32.0 points on .656 TS%.

[payitforward]

All good points, nate -- but, keep in mind that my perspective was "his career... so far."

For that matter, my overall conclusion is also a bit over-drawn: there is no single pick number that always yields a really good player, obviously, but the first pick comes closer than any other. As you would expect!

[TheBlackCzar]

DRose in his prime was better than everybody on that list with the exception of LeBron and maybe Wemby....


DRose would've just destroyed everybody else on this list.......Only injury made that beast not reach higher heights than he already did.... I'll never forget how much trouble he gave Heat Wade and Bron, trying to keep up with him....

[payitforward]

Absolutely!

& of course injury just can't be anticipated. At the #1 pick or any other.

[gambitx777]

I think people are too hard on wall. He might be if you exclude Jordan too 3 wizards of all time. He pulled a bad franchise to the play offs. During the wall prime years we drafted like dog ****. Traded picks for meh returns. Gortat was ok and Morris played his best ball here. But man some of the dumbest money was handed out by this team. Wall was ham stringed with the stupidest gm of all time. He really is better than people gave him credit for all while being a legit problem on the streets.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[gesa2]

Gambit I know you are a little prone to hyperbole but the Wiz had some pretty good players in the 70’s

[pancakes3]

If I were doing a redraft of all the #1 overall picks with the benefit of hindsight, modern medicine, and team dietician, Wall would be pretty low, below the KAT tier. Even when he was healthy, the majority of this board agreed that while talented, he couldn't change gears, got caught in the air without a plan entirely too often, turnovers in general, wasn't working on his 3 ball, and it was glaring comparing him to Rondo, Rose, and Westbrook as the up and coming guards in the league. By the time Steph, Dame, and Harden came into their own a little later the difference became even starker.

My list:

Lebron
Wemby
Kyrie
Dwight
Rose
Ant
AD
Cade
Yao
Blake
Zion
Paolo
KAT
Wall
KMart
Ayton
Wiggins
Bogut
Kwame
Oden
Bargnani
Rissacher
Fultz
Simmons
Bennett

[nate33]

I think people are too hard on wall. He might be if you exclude Jordan too 3 wizards of all time. He pulled a bad franchise to the play offs. During the wall prime years we drafted like dog ****. Traded picks for meh returns. Gortat was ok and Morris played his best ball here. But man some of the dumbest money was handed out by this team. Wall was ham stringed with the stupidest gm of all time. He really is better than people gave him credit for all while being a legit problem on the streets.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

"Pulling this franchise to the playoffs" is not exactly an achievement. His best finish was a 5th seed in a woeful Eastern Conference. He never once won 50 games.

Yeah, it's arguable that he was a top 4-6 Wizard, but that's not saying much. The Wizards have the worst roster of All-Time Greats of any team in the league that has been around for 50+ years. There's no chance he is ahead of Wes, Hayes or Arenas. I think it's debatable whether he was better than Beal. Then there's guys like Gus Johnson and Walt Bellamy that I don't feel qualified to compare.

[AFM]

The guy is #8 on the all time assists per game list. I don’t mean for the Wizards, I mean the all time NBA list. Ahead of Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. Put some respek on his name. He takes a giant dump on Beal.

[pancakes3]

The guy is #8 on the all time assists per game list. I don’t mean for the Wizards, I mean the all time NBA list. Ahead of Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. Put some respek on his name. He takes a giant dump on Beal.

and if Trae Young got hurt like Wall got hurt, he'd be 3rd

[nate33]

The guy is #8 on the all time assists per game list. I don’t mean for the Wizards, I mean the all time NBA list. Ahead of Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. Put some respek on his name. He takes a giant dump on Beal.

That's because he didn't play into the twilight of his career to reduce his per game stats. Guys like Kidd, Nash, Derrick Williams and Westbrook would rank above him if they stopped playing at age 30.

But upon further consideration, I think you are are right that I was rash to suggest Beal is a better Wizard. Maybe if you heavily weight his career totals, there's a case to be made. But prime Wall was definitely more impactful than prime Beal.