Statlanta wrote:lessthanjake wrote:Cavaliers are a tough team to gauge.
On one hand, they seem to fit the bill of a team that does really well in the regular season but doesn’t have a major superstar and is more of an ensemble cast. Those sorts of teams tend to almost always do a lot worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. At the same time, though, those sorts of teams historically don’t put up a 10+ SRS, and the teams that do put up that kind of SRS are basically always championship teams. In fact, I believe all but one 10+ SRS team in history either won the title that year (which is what usually happens) or won it in a directly surrounding year (and the exception to this is the 2016 Spurs, who won it two years earlier). Of course, it seems like there will probably be two 10+ SRS teams this year, and they can’t both win it, but a team doing *that* well feels like something that pretty much has to be reflective of something real that translates to the postseason. Or at least historically it always has.
So I’m torn. I see markers of a team that I’d expect to disappoint in the playoffs, but also markers of a team that I’d assume will do great in the playoffs. I think where I land on this is that the Cavaliers are definitely capable of winning the title and should be the second-favorite (I’d definitely have them behind the Thunder), but if they’re going to win I think they’ll need Donovan Mitchell to play like a genuine star in the playoffs. Mitchell has shown himself to be really capable of doing that, though, so that doesn’t feel like hugely wishful thinking.
I don't think they are a tough team to gauge. I don't see the Cavaliers as those dominant 10 SRS teams of the past despite their team statistics. In history only the 71 Lakers and 16 Warriors have not won while having a 10 SRS. I think having a 10SRS in post 2010 era is boosted by the 3pt shot which impacts the MOV a lot especially in an era of load management where teams decide to save their players health to fight another game. If you were that dominate in prior eras without big volatile 3pt scoring swings it usually meant insurmountable dominance but now it does not(hence the 2016 Warriors example of losing to a sub 10 SRS team whereas the 71 Lakers lost to another 10SRS team in the Bucks).
I think the 2025 Cavaliers path is similar to the 2016 Spurs who lost to the 2016 Thunder team that had more talent but lost way more games in the RS. It's much like how everyone saw the 2009 Cavaliers as a contender(during the time they were winning as opposed to now) due to their win total when in hindsight they lacked the talent.
Don't think its fair to use the 16 Warriors as an example of a team being fraudulent SRS. Injuries (igoudala's back, bogut) to the driver of their dominance (steph) ruined any chance of that team living up to their potential in the post season. They also had some awful luck, the draymond suspension, Harry B forgetting how to shoot, Kyrie going supernova etc. And it still took 7 games in the finals and arguably the goat stretch by the goat himself to beat them. If you re-sim that playoffs with no injuries, I'd say golden state win 90 times.
Cleveland are the 8th best net rating of all time currently. Sure, I'd still favour Boston over them as it's not a good matchup, but they're a very good team. They've got a great cast of offensive talent, lots of spacing, and are able to almost always have an all star engine guard and an all star big on the court. which was somewhat reminiscent of Dallas's post AS run last year (luka/kyrie + Gaff/Lively - although mobley/allen clear the dallas bigs, luka clears the cleveland guards). Mobley is the swing piece for Cleveland, his ascension across all impact metrics has been meteoric this year, and I think unfortunately he'll have some warts in the playoffs as he gets used to being a focal point on O.
That said, cleveland/okc is my dream finals matchup, as they're my respective favourite team in each conference this year (have loved the cleveland core since 22 when mobley got drafted) and I do hope they meet eachother. Cleveland ring would be great for the sport, as unlikely as I think it is.
