ESPN Net Points Vest and Dunce Thread

[eyriq]

I think the fan vote does a better job at capturing "impact", which stats will always miss until computers start watching games. WCJ is one of the lowest BBIQ players in the league and a mental midget when it counts. Sweater Vest points captures that nicely. Paolo is one of the highest impact players on this team and Sweater Vest points captures that. Glad to see that Net Points is capturing that too.

You're embarrassing yourself with this

It's a popularity contest and only certain people vote.

I've been making the same point for a long time now clearly I'm not embarrassed by it. I work in analytics I manage an analytics team I understand the value of survey data.

[Knightro]

Orlando Magic players ranked by Net Points as of 3/17
38. Goga
40. Franz
78. Moritz
88. Paolo
112. Isaac
159. Carter
320. Suggs
377. CoJo
411. Queen
439. Houstan
444. Harris
472. Da Silva
492. Cole
502. KCP
504. Jett
518. Black

Orlando Magic players ranked by EPM as of 3/17
19. Franz
65. Goga
71. Suggs
99. Paolo
114. Moritz
132. Isaac
153. Carter
240. Cole
251. KCP
304. Harris
305. Da Silva
321. CoJo
376. Black
413. Queen
427. Houstan
461. Jett

[Knightro]

I've been making the same point for a long time now clearly I'm not embarrassed by it. I work in analytics I manage an analytics team I understand the value of survey data.

I know what you do, but this isn't true survey data and you know it. We're not talking about 500-1000 responses here. We're not even talking about 100 responses here. We're not even talking about 50 responses here.

Most responses in vest threads threads - which is how we determine 2nd and 3rd place after each win - are quite literally less than 10 votes.

And if the same 3-4 people who are inclined to vote in one specific direction over another are the ones who respond in 100% of vests threads, those samples are all going to be heavily skewed and biased in the direction of those posters more than not.

Yes, actual survey data is valuable. But this isn't that and you know it.

I refuse to believe someone who does this for a living is ignoring these very basic realities. Unless there's a layer of disingenuousness to this...

[eyriq]

I've been making the same point for a long time now clearly I'm not embarrassed by it. I work in analytics I manage an analytics team I understand the value of survey data.

I know what you do, but this isn't true survey data and you know it. We're not talking about 500-1000 responses here. We're not even talking about 100 responses here. We're not even talking about 50 responses here.

Most vest threads get 30-40 votes and most thread responses - which is how we determine 2nd and 3rd place each win - are quite literally less than 10 votes.

And if the same 3-4 people who are inclined to vote in one specific direction are the ones who respond 100% of vests threads, those samples are all going to be heavily skewed and biased in the direction of those posters more than not.

I refuse to believe someone who does this for a living is ignoring these very basic realities.

Yes, actual survey data is valuable. But this isn't that and you know it.

It's a directional indicator from a consistent survey of a user base of fairly diehard fans. It's good stuff.

[Knightro]

It's a directional indicator from a consistent survey of a user base of fairly diehard fans. It's good stuff.

I'm not going to keep doing this with you

Both the Pelicans vest thread and the Bucks vest thread had seven votes total to determine 2nd and 3rd.

If you're going to draw sweeping conclusions based on a sample size that small, when it's also proven that the people who choose to consistently vote in those threads have biases in favor of certain players and not in favor of other players, then I simply don't know what else to say to you about this.

At a certain point this becomes a conversation not worth having because you clearly understand this more appropriately than you're letting on based on what you do as a career.

[Skybox]

I think the fan vote does a better job at capturing "impact", which stats will always miss until computers start watching games. WCJ is one of the lowest BBIQ players in the league and a mental midget when it counts. Sweater Vest points captures that nicely. Paolo is one of the highest impact players on this team and Sweater Vest points captures that. Glad to see that Net Points is capturing that too.

You're embarrassing yourself with this

It's a popularity contest and only certain people vote.

I've been making the same point for a long time now clearly I'm not embarrassed by it. I work in analytics I manage an analytics team I understand the value of survey data.

...or you're so deeply invested in it, that you've got the blinders on.

Analytics in team sports are far from perfect
-like it's very difficult to find a "bad defender" on a team that's dominant defensively...chicken or egg?
...I'm not dismissing the value (I AM old & grumpy - but I generally know and acknowledge what I don't know - I don't ONLY yell at clouds and eyriq)

[eyriq]

You're embarrassing yourself with this

It's a popularity contest and only certain people vote.

I've been making the same point for a long time now clearly I'm not embarrassed by it. I work in analytics I manage an analytics team I understand the value of survey data.

...or you're so deeply invested in it, that you've got the blinders on.

Analytics in team sports are far from perfect
-like it's very difficult to find a "bad defender" on a team that's dominant defensively...chicken or egg?
...I'm not dismissing the value (I AM old & grumpy - but I generally know and acknowledge what I don't know - I don't ONLY yell at clouds and eyriq)

I'm not invested in it at all. It's a forum driven data point and tells a good story about who makes the most impact on wins based on the forum collective. Using net points tells a similar story and seems to be a decent proxy for it, but if you're going to make an argument about player impact why not use the forum generated metric?

[eyriq]

It's a directional indicator from a consistent survey of a user base of fairly diehard fans. It's good stuff.

I'm not going to keep doing this with you

Both the Pelicans vest thread and the Bucks vest thread had seven votes total to determine 2nd and 3rd.

If you're going to draw sweeping conclusions based on a sample size that small, when it's also proven that the people who choose to consistently vote in those threads have biases in favor of certain players and not in favor of other players, then I simply don't know what else to say to you about this.

At a certain point this becomes a conversation not worth having because you clearly understand this more appropriately than you're letting on based on what you do as a career.

What do you think you've proved again, exactly? Was there some gotcha in the OP that I missed?

[eyriq]

Orlando Magic players ranked by Net Points as of 3/17
38. Goga
40. Franz
78. Moritz
88. Paolo
112. Isaac
159. Carter
320. Suggs
377. CoJo
411. Queen
439. Houstan
444. Harris
472. Da Silva
492. Cole
502. KCP
504. Jett
518. Black

Orlando Magic players ranked by EPM as of 3/17
19. Franz
65. Goga
71. Suggs
99. Paolo
114. Moritz
132. Isaac
153. Carter
240. Cole
251. KCP
304. Harris
305. Da Silva
321. CoJo
376. Black
413. Queen
427. Houstan
461. Jett

That is wild that AB is so low in net points. No one can say that Mosley isn't developing him. It also speaks highly to Mosley's rotations. Looking at net points per 100 shows that there are definitely worse options on the team who would be behind him if Mosley played them nearly as much as AB. Cole and Jett for example. CoJo, Queen, Harris, and Caleb as well. All would be worse than AB with more playing time.

It's interesting to contrast this with vest points derived from net points. AB is frequently involved in wins, showing a lot of potential as an impact player.

[Skybox]

I've been making the same point for a long time now clearly I'm not embarrassed by it. I work in analytics I manage an analytics team I understand the value of survey data.

...or you're so deeply invested in it, that you've got the blinders on.

Analytics in team sports are far from perfect
-like it's very difficult to find a "bad defender" on a team that's dominant defensively...chicken or egg?
...I'm not dismissing the value (I AM old & grumpy - but I generally know and acknowledge what I don't know - I don't ONLY yell at clouds and eyriq)

I'm not invested in it at all. It's a forum driven data point and tells a good story about who makes the most impact on wins based on the forum collective. Using net points tells a similar story and seems to be a decent proxy for it, but if you're going to make an argument about player impact why not use the forum generated metric?

I concede your point...if this is what you meant ...Vests are actually better than advanced stats because, presumably, the voters are also, intentionally or not, factoring in the eye test (along with their own bias, etc)

However, the downside is that there are a lot of knuckleheads here who are allowed to vote

[eyriq]

...or you're so deeply invested in it, that you've got the blinders on.

Analytics in team sports are far from perfect
-like it's very difficult to find a "bad defender" on a team that's dominant defensively...chicken or egg?
...I'm not dismissing the value (I AM old & grumpy - but I generally know and acknowledge what I don't know - I don't ONLY yell at clouds and eyriq)

I'm not invested in it at all. It's a forum driven data point and tells a good story about who makes the most impact on wins based on the forum collective. Using net points tells a similar story and seems to be a decent proxy for it, but if you're going to make an argument about player impact why not use the forum generated metric?

I concede your point...if this is what you meant ...Vests are actually better than advanced stats because, presumably, the voters are also, intentionally or not, factoring in the eye test (along with their own bias, etc)

However, the downside is that there are a lot of knuckleheads here who are allowed to vote

LOL well yeah but that makes it even more special to me because I love these knuckleheads

[Knightro]

Orlando Magic players ranked by Net Points as of 3/17
38. Goga
40. Franz
78. Moritz
88. Paolo
112. Isaac
159. Carter
320. Suggs
377. CoJo
411. Queen
439. Houstan
444. Harris
472. Da Silva
492. Cole
502. KCP
504. Jett
518. Black

Orlando Magic players ranked by EPM as of 3/17
19. Franz
65. Goga
71. Suggs
99. Paolo
114. Moritz
132. Isaac
153. Carter
240. Cole
251. KCP
304. Harris
305. Da Silva
321. CoJo
376. Black
413. Queen
427. Houstan
461. Jett

That is wild that AB is so low in net points. No one can say that Mosley isn't developing him. It also speaks highly to Mosley's rotations. Looking at net points per 100 shows that there are definitely worse options on the team who would be behind him if Mosley played them nearly as much as AB. Cole and Jett for example. CoJo, Queen, Harris, and Caleb as well. All would be worse than AB with more playing time.

It's interesting to contrast this with vest points derived from net points. AB is frequently involved in wins, showing a lot of potential as an impact player.

If you want me to, I will do the worst net points in all of the losses this season. But I don’t think you would like what I find…

[eyriq]

Orlando Magic players ranked by Net Points as of 3/17
38. Goga
40. Franz
78. Moritz
88. Paolo
112. Isaac
159. Carter
320. Suggs
377. CoJo
411. Queen
439. Houstan
444. Harris
472. Da Silva
492. Cole
502. KCP
504. Jett
518. Black

Orlando Magic players ranked by EPM as of 3/17
19. Franz
65. Goga
71. Suggs
99. Paolo
114. Moritz
132. Isaac
153. Carter
240. Cole
251. KCP
304. Harris
305. Da Silva
321. CoJo
376. Black
413. Queen
427. Houstan
461. Jett

That is wild that AB is so low in net points. No one can say that Mosley isn't developing him. It also speaks highly to Mosley's rotations. Looking at net points per 100 shows that there are definitely worse options on the team who would be behind him if Mosley played them nearly as much as AB. Cole and Jett for example. CoJo, Queen, Harris, and Caleb as well. All would be worse than AB with more playing time.

It's interesting to contrast this with vest points derived from net points. AB is frequently involved in wins, showing a lot of potential as an impact player.

If you want me to, I will do the worst net points in all of the losses this season. But I don’t think you would like what I find…

I have no doubt that AB is a high leverage player. He's good, but young and inconsistent. The point I'm making is that most guards on this team are worse as seen by net points per 100.

I'd love to see dunce cap points from a net points perspective. Do it, please.

[p0peye]

Magic has worse guards on the roster - invaluable, elusive and extremely high bar only a handful superstars met, usually at the pinnacle of their career.

[otownflava21]

What do all these rankings say about Goga??

[Knightro]

2024-2025 Dunce Cap Rankings per ESPN Net Points

Loss 1 at Memphis
-3 Paolo
-2 Carter
-1 KCP

Loss 2 at Chicago (Paolo injured during the game)
-3 KCP
-2 Franz
-1 Harris

Loss 3 at Cleveland
-3 Harris
-2 Franz
-1 Black

Loss 4 at Dallas
-3 Moritz
-2 Harris
-1 Black

Loss 5 at Oklahoma City
-3 Black
-2 Da Silva
-1 Jett

Loss 6 at Indiana
-3 Jett
-2 Da Silva
-1 Goga

Loss 7 at LA Clippers
-3 KCP
-2 Moritz
-1 Harris

Loss 8 at New York
-3 Suggs
-2 KCP
-1 Black

Loss 9 at Philadelphia (Franz injured during the game)
-3 Black
-2 Da Silva
-1 KCP

Loss 10 at Milwaukee
-3 Cole
-2 KCP
-1 Da Silva

Loss 11 v. New York
-3 Suggs
-2 Black
-1 Jett

Loss 12 v. Oklahoma City
-3 Cole
-2 Moritz
-1 Suggs

Moe Wagner lost for the season between these two games

Loss 13 v. Miami
-3 Cole
-2 Black
-1 Isaac

Loss 14 v. New York
-3 Da Silva
-2 Isaac
-1 Harris

Loss 15 at Detroit
-3 Da Silva
-2 Carter
-1 Goga

Jalen Suggs lost for the season between these two games

Loss 16 v. Utah
-3 KCP
-2 Isaac
-1 Da Silva

Loss 17 v. Minnesota
-3 Cole
-2 Queen
-1 Black

Loss 18 v. Milwaukee (Paolo returns)
-3 Cole
-2 Houstan
-1 Carter

Loss 19 at Milwaukee
-3 Paolo
-2 Cole
-1 Houstan

Loss 20 at Boston
-3 Paolo
-2 Carter
-1 Da Silva

Loss 21 v. Denver
-3 KCP
-2 Queen
-1 Black

Loss 22 at Toronto
-3 Queen
-2 Houstan
-1 CoJo

Loss 23 v. Portland (Franz returns)
-3 Paolo
-2 Franz
-1 KCP

Loss 24 at Miami
-3 Paolo
-2 KCP
-1 Franz

Loss 25 at Portland
-3 Black
-2 KCP
-1 Paolo

Loss 26 at Utah
-3 Paolo
-2 Black
-1 Jett

Loss 27 at Golden State
-3 Paolo
-2 Goga
-1 Black

Loss 28 at Denver
-3 Cole
-2 Franz
-1 Queen

Loss 29 v. Atlanta
-3 KCP
-2 Isaac
-1 Black

Loss 30 v. Memphis
-3 Paolo
-2 Black
-1 Carter

Loss 31 v. Cleveland
-3 Black
-2 Da Silva
-1 Harris

Loss 32 v. Golden State
-3 KCP
-2 Cole
-1 Carter

Loss 33 v. Toronto
-3 Black
-2 Goga
-1 Cole

Loss 34 v. Toronto
-3 Carter
-2 Franz
-1 Jett

Loss 35 v. Chicago
-3 Da Silva
-2 CoJo
-1 Paolo

Loss 36 at Houston
-3 Cole
-2 Da Silva
-1 Black

Loss 37 at Minnesota
-3 Franz
-2 Carter
-1 Black


Dunce Caps
Paolo: 8
Cole: 7
KCP: 6
Black: 5
Da Silva: 3
Suggs: 2
Queen: 1
Harris: 1
Carter: 1
Moritz: 1
Jett: 1
Franz: 1

Dunce Cummerbunds (open to suggestions on this name)
Franz: 5
Da Silva: 5
Carter: 4
Black: 4
KCP: 4
Isaac: 3
Goga: 2
Moritz: 2
Cole: 2
Houstan: 2
Queen: 2
Harris: 1
CoJo: 1

Dunce Mittens (open to suggestions on this name)
Black: 9
Jett: 4
Harris: 4
KCP: 3
Da Silva: 3
Carter: 3
Paolo: 2
Goga: 2
Franz: 1
Houstan: 1
Queen: 1
Cole: 1
Suggs: 1
Isaac: 1
CoJo: 1

Total Dunce Points
Black -32
KCP -29
Paolo -26
Cole -26
Da Silva -22
Carter -14
Franz -14
Harris -9
Queen -8
Moritz -7
Jett -7
Isaac -7
Goga -6
Suggs -6
Houstan -5
CoJo -3

Vest to Dunce Net Ratio
Franz +25
Goga +17
Moritz +10
Isaac +7
Carter +4
Suggs +1
Joseph -2
Paolo -5
Houstan -5
Harris -6
Queen -6
Jett -6
Da Silva -13
KCP -14
Black -17
Cole -20

[eyriq]

Goddamn that is interesting. I need to digest this but I absolutely love it. Thank you!

[eyriq]

What does it mean to show up in the top three in wins and bottom three in losses? I think it's insight into positive and negative impact and in aggregate an indication of how leveraged the team is on players.

Who should be high leverage players? Ideally our best players should show up in the top and bottom three as we should win when they play good and lose when they play bad. Exceptions will be when role players step up or drag down team performance disproportionately.

How to interpret high leverage role players? If there is a positive impact I think this is commendable though maybe not sustainable, if negative impact then roster construction or coaching is in question.

How much grace should be given to player development reps? I think this should depend on the cap sheet maturity. If you have a mature cap sheet then less tolerance, if not than more tolerance.

[eyriq]

The top ten in combined points

Franz
Paolo
Black
KCP
WCJ
Cole
TDS
Goga
Moritz
JI

Suggs not making the list is a big blow. I think you can explain a lot of the issues just talking to each player in order.

[Knightro]

The top ten in combined points

Franz
Paolo
Black
KCP
WCJ
Cole
TDS
Goga
Moritz
JI

Suggs not making the list is a big blow. I think you can explain a lot of the issues just telling to each player.

You can't ignore than Suggs has only played 35 games compared to 60+ for a lot of the other guys on the list.