ESPN Net Points Vest and Dunce Thread

[basketballRob]

Ultimately, I just find this whole deflect, deny, defuse routine around Black to be awfully silly.

And like the other guy said, the way you go about it is so goofy to the point it come off intellectually dishonest because we know you’re not a dumb guy. It is actually making other people who aren’t inclined to dislike Black to actually dislike him.

It’s possible to be a fan of a player without essentially saying positive things about the player that are pretty much blatantly untrue. Or at least willfully ignoring the very obviously bad things.

“Oh yeah Net Points is the new hotness. It blows EPM and everything else out of the water!”

*gets pointed out that Net Points has Anthony Black ranked outside of the TOP FIVE HUNDRED NBA players this season*

“Oh well… Suggs was bad at that age too! Black is just learning!”

And obviously these aren’t actual quotes they’re just paraphrased from dozens of discussions.

But it’s just so painfully transparent.

People disliked Black ever since we drafted him. They look for any reason to pounce on him each game. They don't know how to act when he has a good game other than to dig for reasons to dislike him. For every pro Black poster, there are 10 negative posters.

Black is a very good young player. Players like him don't walk through the door every day. You guys just need to open your eyes




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People don't dislike Black, they dislike delusional takes about Black.

We know what black is because pick between: counting stats, advanced stats, eye test - he doesn't pass any of it to consider him "very good young player".

By EPM he is literally bottom of the barrel. Guy didn't crack top 300 list in league with 280-ish serious- rotation players ( 8 men per team).
By TS he is 6% below league's average.
By eFG he is near 8% below league's average.
Among people of his size, he is at bottom as rebounder.
As play maker, 3,0 apg on 1,7 TO is nothing to write home about.
Among 12 Magic players who average over 15 mpg, he has 3rd worst net rating.


Counting stats also don't really show much, 9 ppg, 2,5 rpg, 3 apg. The only player I looked at.


Each and every year easiest type of player you can find in draft, late in first round , or in second round is 3 and D wing with questionable 3 point shooting. League is filled with them.

Just few examples of players that are not worst than Black ,and where they were picked:

Podziemski , 19th pick 2023
Camara, 52th pick, 2023
Jaquez, 18th pick ,2023
Braun, 21th pick 2022
Nembhard , 31th pick ,2022
Max Christie, 35th pick 2022
Jaden Hary, 37th pick ,2022
Jalen Johnson , 20th pick, 2021
Quentin Grimes, 25th pick 2021
Aldama, 30th pick, 2021
Herb Jones, 35th pick, 2021
Miles McBride, 36th pick 2021
Ayo, 38th pick, 2021
Aaron Wiggins, 55th pick 2021


Again, i avoided using guys who were top 6 pick, like Black, i avoided mentioning guys drafted in lottery. It's just list of people drafted late in first or second round.

Black was drafted in same class with : Victor, Thompson twins, Miller, Scoot. Those 5 guys are couple of light years ahead of him in terms of production.

Just a fact that people got overly exited because 6th overall pick made two wide open corner 3s in a row and pair of FTs in his second season tells you a lot. Level of expectations is set. When you draft 6th you expect star player, or at least starter. Two years into a Black only one thing is certain. He ain't PG. Fact he can't start at PG position on a team that has NO PG is all you need.

There is no single GM in the world who wouldn't trade him straight up for Christian Braun for example.
if you are offered 14th pick from 2025, you would also pull that trade in heartbeat.

He isn't Elf Payton where level of absurdity of his fanboys have, he is better than Payton and there is less outlandish takes than Payton had, but there still is unhealthy amount of homerism among some takes.

You guys are delusional. Naming a bunch of players in their mid 20s. Black will be better than everyone on that list.

Jalen Johnson averaged 2.4 ppg his first season and 5.4 ppg his second season, for example.

Paolo's Net rating is -3.7, and Black's is -2.7. The only player I looked at to compare.

Braun averaged 4.7 ppg when he was Black's age.


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[pepe1991]

Oh here is that age crap again. Risacher is yet to turn 20 and is better than Black.
Flagg is yet to turn 19 and i'm very confident he is better than Black already.
Stephon Castle is year younger and can run circles around Black.


Age has nothing to do with skill level. Dončić at 17 was more skilled than Black will ever be.

[Skybox]

1. He needs the reps. AST% is at secondary playmaker levels now, this is good progress in my books.
2. He's already starter quality on defense. PGs take a long time to develop on offense
3. Check out their stats and net points per 100. Second year Suggs is a good comp for second year AB.
4. Suggs is more offensively focused, TBD if he's a better offensive player. He sucked on offense early on too.

Yes he's young. He's also durable, has great size, and is terrific at getting to the line.

Ultimately, I just find this whole deflect, deny, defuse routine around Black to be awfully silly.

And like the other guy said, the way you go about it is so goofy to the point it come off intellectually dishonest because we know you’re not a dumb guy. It is actually making other people who aren’t inclined to dislike Black to actually dislike him.

It’s possible to be a fan of a player without essentially saying positive things about the player that are pretty much blatantly untrue. Or at least willfully ignoring the very obviously bad things.

“Oh yeah Net Points is the new hotness. It blows EPM and everything else out of the water!”

*gets pointed out that Net Points has Anthony Black ranked outside of the TOP FIVE HUNDRED NBA players this season*

“Oh well… Suggs was bad at that age too! Black is just learning!”

And obviously these aren’t actual quotes they’re just paraphrased from dozens of discussions.

But it’s just so painfully transparent.

People disliked Black ever since we drafted him. They look for any reason to pounce on him each game. They don't know how to act when he has a good game other than to dig for reasons to dislike him. For every pro Black poster, there are 10 negative posters.

Black is a very good young player. Players like him don't walk through the door every day. You guys just need to open your eyes


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This is just air coming out of your mouth - no fact-basis at all. He's not a significant player and his draft spot is way too high to keep excusing that. Once they're drafted, draft spot is no longer relevant to their present value- but it IS significant as to whether a player is a disappointment. The irony of comparing him to guys like Jalen Johnson is that Jalen Johnson is a forward who plays beautifully off a true PG (Trae) and has evolved to do that after a slow start. AB would be better off playing like Jalen Johnson than us clinging to the idea that AB is the same position as Trae.

IMO, the best way to salvage AB is :
1) Get KCP out of his way- he can probably do what KCP does - defend, play long for a SG, hit open 3's (but not actively hunt or generate them), cut to the hoop and finish on close-outs or even back-cut lobs. A smaller Jalen Johnson - or a BIG guard.
2) Understand that he's not getting $20m unless Weltman is still taking the same stupid pills he was on last summer
3) Get a real PG that makes AB and the rest of ORL's out-of-position pretenders look good.
4) This all probably also requires an offensive specialist on the coaching staff to generate some movement in our scheme
5) Congratulate AB for having exceptional PG skills for a non-PG, sort of like Franz & Paolo (instead of just being a bad PG)

[basketballRob]

Oh here is that age crap again. Risacher is yet to turn 20 and is better than Black.
Flagg is yet to turn 19 and i'm very confident he is better than Black already.
Stephon Castle is year younger and can run circles around Black.


Age has nothing to do with skill level. Dončić at 17 was more skilled than Black will ever be.

Castle is 10 months younger and he only puts up more stats because he's on a tanking team. Black was better than him.

You forgot LeBron. He was better than Black.

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=blackan01&p1yrfrom=2024&p1yrto=2024&player_id2=castlst01&p2yrfrom=2025&p2yrto=2025


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[pepe1991]

Oh here is that age crap again. Risacher is yet to turn 20 and is better than Black.
Flagg is yet to turn 19 and i'm very confident he is better than Black already.
Stephon Castle is year younger and can run circles around Black.


Age has nothing to do with skill level. Dončić at 17 was more skilled than Black will ever be.

Castle is 10 months younger and he only puts up more stats because he's on a tanking team. Black was better than him.

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=blackan01&p1yrfrom=2024&p1yrto=2024&player_id2=castlst01&p2yrfrom=2025&p2yrto=2025


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tanking team with 4 wins less than Magic, who's 6th overall pick can't start because of ... Corey Joseph?

[Skybox]

Oh here is that age crap again. Risacher is yet to turn 20 and is better than Black.
Flagg is yet to turn 19 and i'm very confident he is better than Black already.
Stephon Castle is year younger and can run circles around Black.


Age has nothing to do with skill level. Dončić at 17 was more skilled than Black will ever be.

Castle is 10 months younger and he only puts up more stats because he's on a tanking team. Black was better than him.

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=blackan01&p1yrfrom=2024&p1yrto=2024&player_id2=castlst01&p2yrfrom=2025&p2yrto=2025


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That "tanking team" would probably be 3 games ahead of us if in the East...Castle is really good. AB is more like a Sochan and could be a good swiss-army-knife player if they finally accept his limitations.

[pepe1991]

Oh here is that age crap again. Risacher is yet to turn 20 and is better than Black.
Flagg is yet to turn 19 and i'm very confident he is better than Black already.
Stephon Castle is year younger and can run circles around Black.


Age has nothing to do with skill level. Dončić at 17 was more skilled than Black will ever be.

Castle is 10 months younger and he only puts up more stats because he's on a tanking team. Black was better than him.

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=blackan01&p1yrfrom=2024&p1yrto=2024&player_id2=castlst01&p2yrfrom=2025&p2yrto=2025


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That "tanking team" would probably be 3 games ahead of us if in the East...Castle is really good. AB is more like a Sochan and could be a good swiss-army-knife player if they finally accept his limitations.

Bro trust me, Black was better rookie

and shows this





Bro, when i was 20, i was better than Wilt.

Spoiler:

After all, when i was 10, Wilt was already dead for two years, so it might be true

[magik9113]

I like what this thread is turning into.

Castle >>>> AB right now and forever.

Castle will have a much better career. For now people may say he's putting up better numbers because his team is tanking. In a couple years it'll be because he's a part of a dominant Spurs team that has Wemby on it.

[JoshuaPotter]

Mo being underrated passes my smell test. Thanks for this.

[JoshuaPotter]

I like what this thread is turning into.

Castle >>>> AB right now and forever.

Castle will have a much better career. For now people may say he's putting up better numbers because his team is tanking. In a couple years it'll be because he's a part of a dominant Spurs team that has Wemby on it.

Castle is on the trajectory I hoped AB would be on.

AB is currently not. I wouldn't say I have soured on him. I will say that he has had opportunity to be better this year due to injuries. Last year was clearly a "you were never drafted to actually play" year from him.

Blacks defense is legitimate. Everything else? His jump shot is actually coming along if he can develop it from volume he might be a better Suggs on offense. Beyond all of this, I don't know. His opportunity to be the next one has been plenty this season especially on offense and he hasn't risen to the occasion. This is a burdensome fact.

[JoshuaPotter]

Oh here is that age crap again. Risacher is yet to turn 20 and is better than Black.
Flagg is yet to turn 19 and i'm very confident he is better than Black already.
Stephon Castle is year younger and can run circles around Black.


Age has nothing to do with skill level. Dončić at 17 was more skilled than Black will ever be.

Castle is 10 months younger and he only puts up more stats because he's on a tanking team. Black was better than him.

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=blackan01&p1yrfrom=2024&p1yrto=2024&player_id2=castlst01&p2yrfrom=2025&p2yrto=2025


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That "tanking team" would probably be 3 games ahead of us if in the East...Castle is really good. AB is more like a Sochan and could be a good swiss-army-knife player if they finally accept his limitations.

Checks notes, but that seems to be all they do until this year when injuries gave him opportunity, and well he didn't seize it.

[Skybox]

Castle, in the minutes I've seen, also plays defense like Suggs. AB, Suggs, KCP, and Castle are all very good, measurable defenders. But Suggs (and Castle looks to) is ferociously proactive...his defense is offensive. Same can be said about prime Isaac...their defensive impact is constantly felt whenever they are on the court-to the extent that you have to game plan for them. AB's (and KCP's) defense is more prohibitive - as in, he stops or prevents plays from happening and I imagine his defensive metrics are great...but Suggs and Castle look to be guys that just attack an offense and cause them to be disrupted....Just my distant view - would be interested to hear if others see it that way.

To stay on track with the thread, I'd say these are cases where defensive metrics could fall short of eye test.

On paper or eyriq's slide rule... AB, Suggs, Castle, Isaac(at his prior best) could all generate excellent defensive metrics. But Suggs and Isaac (with Castle looking like same kind of guy) can really change the momentum with their "attacking" defense. Like a ferocious blitz in football...even without an actual sack, the other team MUST adapt and change their game plan or succumb to the pressure.

[Knightro]

Black is young and Black is a good defensive player, which is somewhat rare for a young player.

Otherwise, he's actively bad. Advanced metrics are awful. Regular stats are awful.

THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE CAN'T IMPROVE. THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE WON'T IMPROVE.

It means right now he's bad and a long way off from being a positive contributor to a winning program.

To suggest otherwise comes off quite disingenuous.

[JoshuaPotter]

Black is young and Black is a good defensive player, which is somewhat rare for a young player.

Otherwise, he's actively bad. Advanced metrics are awful. Regular stats are awful.

THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE CAN'T IMPROVE. THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE WON'T IMPROVE.

It means right now he's bad and a long way off from being a positive contributor to a winning program.

To suggest otherwise comes off quite disingenuous.

The facts are both burdensome and a little condemning.

He literally has no place to go but up.

He has had multiple occasions to rise to the cream of the crop but we will need him to close the season out averaging 15ppg for me to even entertain what I was entertaining playing Fultz over him last year.

Last comment. It feels like so many teams can draft good promising guards but somehow we can't get out of our own way. What gives? Is it a vision problem? IE we drafted according to vision and now we are stuck with it?

[JoshuaPotter]

I'll disagree. I think he can contribute to a winning program. As 3rd string, deep bench. For sure. Heck his role and everything else might even improve.

[basketballRob]

I'll disagree. I think he can contribute to a winning program. As 3rd string, deep bench. For sure. Heck his role and everything else might even improve.

3rd string, Let all your hate out. We're in a safe space.

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[JoshuaPotter]

I'll disagree. I think he can contribute to a winning program. As 3rd string, deep bench. For sure. Heck his role and everything else might even improve.

3rd string, Let all your hate out. We're in a safe space.

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Naw I haven't soured on him that much. He has all the tools. I just can't disagree that he has had the opportunity near as I can tell and the minute this year and doesn't seem to be able to deliver consistently. Although if he did, we looked stacked.

[eyriq]

Yes, he's bad on offense right now. Most young point guards are bad on offense. Is he worse than expected for a defense first prospect? Not really, IMO.

We are giving him reps and he's doing well with the opportunity. He literally just led the team to their biggest win of the season. He's been playing better on offense lately. He's easily on a path to be a quality starter for us and one of the best defenders at his position in the league. His shooting is better than expected, he's showing playmaking chops, and his free throw rate remains elite.

Most of the board agrees with this based on the poll we conducted a while ago. Y'all are just a small but vocal minority of haters who never accepted the pick. It comforts me to know that you are mostly the same voices poo pooing Paolo as well. In other words, y'all have a blind spot for evaluating players.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Black is young and Black is a good defensive player, which is somewhat rare for a young player.

Otherwise, he's actively bad. Advanced metrics are awful. Regular stats are awful.

THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE CAN'T IMPROVE. THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE WON'T IMPROVE.

It means right now he's bad and a long way off from being a positive contributor to a winning program.

To suggest otherwise comes off quite disingenuous.

and he's likely our only exciting player that other teams would want in a trade and here we are this summer needing to make a few moves.

[basketballRob]

Black is young and Black is a good defensive player, which is somewhat rare for a young player.

Otherwise, he's actively bad. Advanced metrics are awful. Regular stats are awful.

THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE CAN'T IMPROVE. THAT DOES NOT MEAN HE WON'T IMPROVE.

It means right now he's bad and a long way off from being a positive contributor to a winning program.

To suggest otherwise comes off quite disingenuous.

and he's likely our only exciting player that other teams would want in a trade and here we are this summer needing to make a few moves.

They may also want Franz.

Mosely should consider running the offense through AB some.

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