Should Blazers trade their 2025 pick of outside of the top 4?

[Runner300]

Simons + current 1st round pick (11th +) for Shroeder + less injury prone version of Williams.
The Blazers are too far in the process to wait another 4 years of developing talent...

[JRoy]

Pass on Schroeder.

[dckingsfan]

If he could have stuck with that .360 3pt shooting percentage or increased that a bit...

Code: Select all

0-3     3-10    10-16   16-3P   3P
0.285   0.114   0.049   0.111   0.437
0.235   0.168   0.099   0.083   0.415
0.225   0.131   0.112   0.105   0.426
0.247   0.134   0.088   0.102   0.427

The shot chart is "fascinating". I guy who is hitting .314 from three is taking 0.427 of his shots from 3? That is just a big ouch and that is on the coaching staff (IMO). It does two things, he isn't shooting where he needs to be and he isn't creating more with his drives.

It may be the best thing for him is to move to a coach that says, "no more of this".

The stats are misleading because his rookie season, he played with Dame. No offense to Simons/Scoot, but they don't command the defensive presence.

As for 3-point efficiency, this is something I have been complaining about all season. Billups just lets players chuck and says that it's the modern game. Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't. Fair enough. But, when certain players just don't have that shooting touch on any night, get them involved elsewhere. Too lazy to look, but I swear we had one game where we went like 11-52? on 3 point shots. At what point does that not make you realize your game plan isn't working - try anything else.

Ummm, this is 4 seasons of the same.

[DusterBuster]

Simons + current 1st round pick (11th +) for Shroeder + less injury prone version of Williams.
The Blazers are too far in the process to wait another 4 years of developing talent...

Lmao, no. Hard no in all ways shapes and forms.

Would sooner just buy out Simons who’s expiring anyways. That deal is literally worse than getting nothing.

[BlazersBroncos]

Simons + current 1st round pick (11th +) for Shroeder + less injury prone version of Williams.
The Blazers are too far in the process to wait another 4 years of developing talent...

Lmao, no. Hard no in all ways shapes and forms.

Would sooner just buy out Simons who’s expiring anyways. That deal is literally worse than getting nothing.

I wonder what 'less injury prone version of Williams' means - would hope it was Claxton, assume he meant Day'Ron Sharpe.

I wouldnt do it either way.

[zzaj]

Simons + current 1st round pick (11th +) for Shroeder + less injury prone version of Williams.
The Blazers are too far in the process to wait another 4 years of developing talent...

What exactly is "the process" you are speaking of?

[Walton1one]

I don't see any players out there, who are realistically available that really "move the needle" as Olshey was fond of saying, to trade a lottery pick for (even if it is towards the end of the lotto).

and I would push back on the notion that this team's time is "now".

Scoot\Sharpe & Clingan will be 22 next year - Camara\Deni will be 25 at those ages that is a team that is still several years away from being a relevant playoff team

I would even say there is a 50\50 chance that POR misses the playoffs again next year, as this year several teams with much better talent (DAL\SA\NO) all had significant injury issues and as a result changed their strategy (tanking) at various parts of this season.

Will PHX be worse next year? maybe? maybe not? Their owner is adamant on not tearing everything down and still competing, so I would not count them out.

Will SAC begin a rebuild? Maybe, but as they are currently they are still a better team than POR

and I doubt the LAC\LAL or GSW fall off the cliff next year either, still a few more years away from that I suspect, so POR trying to go "all in" now by trading away picks and a few of their young rotational players seems like a pretty stupid idea to me, but so does actively trying to make a play in game, but so far Joe Cronin has shown himself to be an idiot, or at least directed by one.

[Case2012]

The 12th pick is the absolute worst place you can be as a rebuilding team. It's the worst case scenario and yet Cronin seemed absolutely dead set on it. You forced Dame out to rebuild and decided to win with no real 1st, 2nd or even 3rd option? Unless this clown thinks Simons, Grant, and Ayton are it...? Yeah, forcing out a top 15 player to draft some role players is a great idea Joe. Good job buddy.

[Walton1one]

Worst place to be? Yeah it is right there, #13/#14 would be worse. Absolute worst would be making the playoffs and surrendering their 1st

That being said, they can still get a good rotational player at #12/13/14, and this draft is shaping up to be beneficial for them in that way, as current consensus is top 5 player above the rest and then eye of the beholder from #6-#20 or so, which based on analsyts\mocks etc..., seems to be about right

Doubtful that they get a #1/#2 type player at that pick, but a rotational player is very possible and at this stage, POR needs to be stockpiling as many rotational type pieces as they can, so they can maybe trade several of them away for a #1/#2 type player, it is a longshot, but this is the path that Cronin has apparently decided upon

well...that or he truly does believe Simons-Ayton-Grant are good enough to lead this team past the rest of the NBA, if he believes that, then this franchise is screwed until he is fired.

[PDXKnight]

The 12th pick is the absolute worst place you can be as a rebuilding team. It's the worst case scenario and yet Cronin seemed absolutely dead set on it. You forced Dame out to rebuild and decided to win with no real 1st, 2nd or even 3rd option? Unless this clown thinks Simons, Grant, and Ayton are it...? Yeah, forcing out a top 15 player to draft some role players is a great idea Joe. Good job buddy.

I don't have a problem with getting rid of a top 25 player as we werent winnint a title with how the roster was set up, it's everything besides that move that irritates me

[Norm2953]

I don't have a problem with the Dame trade given the likelihood Giannis will end up asking out

It'd be interesting if Blazers had a conversation with the Bulls about pick 12 which would bring
something to Portland while extinguishing the obligation to Chicago.

[Sinobas]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

[Wizenheimer]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

because the other team(s) won't cooperate with the plan?

besides that:

Booker + Durant + Beal + Allen + O'Neal haven't even been able to make the Suns a 10th seed

Sabonis + Fox/LaVine + Derozan + Monk + Murray have only been able to elevate the Kings to the 9th seed

neither of those guys moves a needle much because neither is a contending-level 1st option. They would just be treadmill additions for Portland

[DusterBuster]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

because the other team(s) won't cooperate with the plan?

besides that:

Booker + Durant + Beal + Allen + O'Neal haven't even been able to make the Suns a 10th seed

Sabonis + Fox/LaVine + Derozan + Monk + Murray have only been able to elevate the Kings to the 9th seed

neither of those guys moves a needle much because neither is a contending-level 1st option. They would just be treadmill additions for Portland

While I agree with the overall premise of packaging a couple picks and young guys to get a yonger-age star, the logistics are a bit of a roadblock to that thought.

I don't think Booker and Sabas are a fit personally. Both are a little older than I think makes sense for the core of this roster that's been put together in Portland so far. On top of that, both the Kings and Suns love their respective core guys - so they aren't moving those two unless they ask out.

I'm not gonna knock those two for their teams overall performances. That's a bit too simplistic / black-and-white assessment of the situations for why those two teams are underperforming.

For Phoenix, there's a very well storied pattern of KD making a team miserable that he plays with, he's not a malcontent, but he's clearly a hard personality to work with - even if he's not an out-and-out a-hole.

For the Kings, Sabas is very talented, but he's never been a player who can carry a team on his back without a complete roster. Combine that with pretty awful ownership in Sacramento that meddles too much... it's just a bad combo.

For the Blazers, I would feel like bringing in Sabas is basically taking him from one mid situation to the exact same mid situation. I don't see how he really fits and I think Deni and him would be a bad fit together. Combine two players with the same general skillset usually means one (or both) is going to suffer. There are outliers for that loose theory, but overall it doesn't seem to work out well.

And as for Booker, I don't think he's going to ask out, nor are the Suns interested in just moving him to make a splash, so Booker is largely a non-starter. Ishbia has been VERY clear he doesn't want to ever do a rebuild, and a deal of Booker for Sharpe + a buttload of picks is the definition of a rebuilding deal. So yeah, I just don't see Booker as realistic in any way shape or form right now.

IF the Blazers are going to look to make a trade to find an All Star player, I still believe Zion is going to be that target when you consider all the outlier factors that tend to be signs of precursors to big deals... Talks have already happened with previous situations, the teams FO's have a good working relationship, his age fits the timeline the Blazers are working with, the other team (NO) seems primed to move on from him (esp if they end up winning the lottery), and the Blazers have assets to work with. Again, not an endorsement of the idea, but just the only "realistic" scenario I see with the path of a trade for a star player trade.

[Walton1one]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

because the other team(s) won't cooperate with the plan?

besides that:

Booker + Durant + Beal + Allen + O'Neal haven't even been able to make the Suns a 10th seed

Sabonis + Fox/LaVine + Derozan + Monk + Murray have only been able to elevate the Kings to the 9th seed

neither of those guys moves a needle much because neither is a contending-level 1st option. They would just be treadmill additions for Portland

While I agree with the overall premise of packaging a couple picks and young guys to get a yonger-age star, the logistics are a bit of a roadblock to that thought.

I don't think Booker and Sabas are a fit personally. Both are a little older than I think makes sense for the core of this roster that's been put together in Portland so far. On top of that, both the Kings and Suns love their respective core guys - so they aren't moving those two unless they ask out.

I'm not gonna knock those two for their teams overall performances. That's a bit too simplistic / black-and-white assessment of the situations for why those two teams are underperforming.

For Phoenix, there's a very well storied pattern of KD making a team miserable that he plays with, he's not a malcontent, but he's clearly a hard personality to work with - even if he's not an out-and-out a-hole.

For the Kings, Sabas is very talented, but he's never been a player who can carry a team on his back without a complete roster. Combine that with pretty awful ownership in Sacramento that meddles too much... it's just a bad combo.

For the Blazers, I would feel like bringing in Sabas is basically taking him from one mid situation to the exact same mid situation. I don't see how he really fits and I think Deni and him would be a bad fit together. Combine two players with the same general skillset usually means one (or both) is going to suffer. There are outliers for that loose theory, but overall it doesn't seem to work out well.

And as for Booker, I don't think he's going to ask out, nor are the Suns interested in just moving him to make a splash, so Booker is largely a non-starter. Ishbia has been VERY clear he doesn't want to ever do a rebuild, and a deal of Booker for Sharpe + a buttload of picks is the definition of a rebuilding deal. So yeah, I just don't see Booker as realistic in any way shape or form right now.

IF the Blazers are going to look to make a trade to find an All Star player, I still believe Zion is going to be that target when you consider all the outlier factors that tend to be signs of precursors to big deals... Talks have already happened with previous situations, the teams FO's have a good working relationship, his age fits the timeline the Blazers are working with, the other team (NO) seems primed to move on from him (esp if they end up winning the lottery), and the Blazers have assets to work with. Again, not an endorsement of the idea, but just the only "realistic" scenario I see with the path of a trade for a star player trade.

Yeah, Booker seems like a no go, and even if their owner changed his tune and embraced a rebuild, they would have a lot of better options\teams to send Booker to, that could offer more value (this is what happens when your organization (POR) does not value draft picks) and quite fankly, Booker would be more intereted in going to that POR. So that is a pipe dream IMO

Sabonis could be dealt if SAC reboots, but 1) I doubt they reboot, 2) I agree that he would be a bad fit with (2) of Deni\Camara\DC & 3) the cost is going to be prohibitive, multiple picks and a young player (likely Camara or Deni, maybe DC)

and again, neither player rises this team to the top of the playoff contention heap, heck probably does not even list them to the "contenders" tier of teams

Lastly, Zion, please no. First off, given what transpired with Doncic\DAL, I just do not see any way that NO even considers trading him for anything less than a superstar package.

Do you want to see POR trade away (3) 1st's + 1 or 2 young players for the hope and a prayer that Zion can stay healthy or fit enough to maybe lead this team to relevancy in the playoffs (still doubt they would be a title contender)?

But, could it happen? Sure, because I think Joe Cronin is a delusional idiot. Any GM\Organization that looks at this year and compares themselves to HOU play\situation LY is certainly off their rockers, there is literally ZERO comparison there.

HOU is a far better team with far better talent & far better assets to get that player to take them over the top

They have:
- 12th pick this year via PHX, which is about where POR is, might end up a better pick even
- Two 27 Their own 1st's w\ rights to swap with BRK & PHX 1st
- 28' pick
- Two 29' picks - (2) most favorable b\t HOU\DAL\PHX
- 30' pick
- 31' pick

Plus 6 or so 2nd round picks, and they have as many equal\better young players to deal away as POR does: Sheppard, Whitmore, Smith Jr, Eason & Amen

[Walton1one]

Also, I don't understand this fascination with POR trading CHI their #11/12 pick to free up their obligation to CHI like it opens up a ton of opportunities, it really doesn't. It opens up the capability to potentially trade away ONE more pick

Right now, POR can only trade their #25 pick at\after the draft

If they trade 25', Stepien prevents them from trading 26, which they cannot trade anyway, or 27, or 28, since they are all essentially CHI pick unless POR falls within the lottery in any of those years, and in 28, if that happens, CHI gets a 2nd round pick from POR instead

So at\after the draft POR could trade 25, (1) of their 29 picks and 31

Let's say they give the pick to CHI this year

Now they could trade 27/29(2) & 31
OR
26/28/30

So one more pick...Not worth it IMO, especially since that pick is the least valuable of the 29' picks. Yeah, they open up a 27' pick, but they had to trade away 25 (@ #11/12) in order to do that. Is a protected\unprotected pick in 27' from POR going to be more valuable than the 11th/12th pick in the 25' draft?

I'd say that is debatable...

[Wizenheimer]

I didn't mean to imply that Booker & Sabonis aren't good players; they are. and they are certainly a couple of tiers better than any players Portland has. I just don't think players like that move the needle enough to warrant trading for them, especially considering what the Blazers would have to give up

and yes, at this point, Zion seems like the only remote-chance target the Blazers might have around the draft. If you assume that Ayton would be the main filler, and that Sharpe or Camara would be the prospect, it's absolutely certain that Portland would have to give up more than just the the 2025 first

it would probably need to be Zion for Ayton + Camara + 11th pick + 2029 best first + 2030 PDX/Milwaukee/NO swap + 2031 first. The Blazers would have to completely mortgage their future for a player that can't stay healthy

I'm not sure I agree with walton1one that Cronin is that big of an delusional idiot. Not because I trust Cronin, which I don't. But because if he is delusional I don't believe his delusion is ambitious enough for a player like Zion. Cronin spent far too many seasons as the understudy to Olshey's dumpster diving so I'd think his delusions would be a lot less lofty

he'd be much more likely to use that 11th pick + Timelord/Thybulle for yet another role player. I don't know who, but just look for 24-25 year old guys around the league on budget contracts. Guys like Issac Okoro, Patrick Williams, Josh Giddey (who is playing himself into a big payday), Corey Kippert, Saddiq Bey, Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke

[DusterBuster]

I didn't mean to imply that Booker & Sabonis aren't good players; they are. and they are certainly a couple of tiers better than any players Portland has. I just don't think players like that move the needle enough to warrant trading for them, especially considering what the Blazers would have to give up

and yes, at this point, Zion seems like the only remote-chance target the Blazers might have around the draft. If you assume that Ayton would be the main filler, and that Sharpe or Camara would be the prospect, it's absolutely certain that Portland would have to give up more than just the the 2025 first

it would probably need to be Zion for Ayton + Camara + 11th pick + 2029 best first + 2030 PDX/Milwaukee/NO swap + 2031 first. The Blazers would have to completely mortgage their future for a player that can't stay healthy

I'm not sure I agree with walton1one that Cronin is that big of an delusional idiot. Not because I trust Cronin, which I don't. But because if he is delusional I don't believe his delusion is ambitious enough for a player like Zion. Cronin spent far too many seasons as the understudy to Olshey's dumpster diving so I'd think his delusions would be a lot less lofty

he'd be much more likely to use that 11th pick + Timelord/Thybulle for yet another role player. I don't know who, but just look for 24-25 year old guys around the league on budget contracts. Guys like Issac Okoro, Patrick Williams, Josh Giddey (who is playing himself into a big payday), Corey Kippert, Saddiq Bey, Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke

Agree on all points with both you and Walton.

The reason I keep bringing up Zion is that it's really him and no one else remotely realistic with multiple factors of age, timing of being on the market and the Blazers have the assets and FO relationship to pull a deal off with. I would also agree that it would require a good amount of assets, not just Ayton's expiring and the 2025 lottery pick. If it were me and was willing to risk his health being something that could be changed in a different situation, I would be dangling Deni in place of Camara, basically having Zion be a supercharged Deni and take that role the team would lose in moving him. So you have something like Zion and Olynik for Ayton, Deni, 2025 Lottery pick, 2029 best and then a swap... something along those lines.

All that said, I don't think it's going to happen for all the reasons everyone here has laid out. I don't have any trust in Cronin to have the balls to take a big swing like that. I think he's more content just to play the "let the cake bake" route and hope with age all the guys he's cobbled together and become a high level group... which means the Blazers could be in for a lot more of these weird ass 30ish win seasons.

[oldfishermen]

The way the cba is structured. The cost to dig a sucessful gold mine in the NBA, and the cost to dig a hole in the ground, is about the same.

Cronin has been digging one of the most expensive holes in the ground in the history of the NBA.

Trading for Zion would be chasing fools gold. The result would be to make the Blazer's expensive hole in the ground, much larger.

[Walton1one]

I'm not sure I agree with walton1one that Cronin is that big of an delusional idiot. Not because I trust Cronin, which I don't. But because if he is delusional I don't believe his delusion is ambitious enough for a player like Zion. Cronin spent far too many seasons as the understudy to Olshey's dumpster diving so I'd think his delusions would be a lot less lofty

he'd be much more likely to use that 11th pick + Timelord/Thybulle for yet another role player. I don't know who, but just look for 24-25 year old guys around the league on budget contracts. Guys like Issac Okoro, Patrick Williams, Josh Giddey (who is playing himself into a big payday), Corey Kippert, Saddiq Bey, Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke

I hope you are right, and yes I think it is more likely they will trade the 25' 1st away for exactly such a player. I dived thru every roster and tried to identify players that met that criteria, and it is not an overly aspiring list and some on that list would certainly cost more than the 25 1st & TL and\or Thybulle

RJ Barrett for TOR could be a guy they go after, Schmidt is a big fan

There are a couple of guys on IND that could be possibilities: Mathurin, Walker, maybe Nembhard

Other than that, not a lot. Maybe something with HOU? For a guy like Whitmore? or maybe you reach for Smith Jr? The problem is HOU already has a lottery pick (from PHX) that is right around the range of where POR will be picking. They do have an interest in Williams

Williams & 25 pick for ??? Whitmore + something?

Maybe Kuminga\GS could be an option? GS does not have a 1st, they are built to win now, they may not want to pay Kuminga a max\near deal, POR could trade their pick and a vet? Signing Kumina likely takes them over the 1st apron

Don't see how he fits with POR unless Camara or Deni go back in the deal though...

I think a Suggs for Simons & picks could make sense? Suggs fits POR defensive profile, Simons helps with ORL scoring. ORL already has (2) 1st's though and I have not seen any indication Suggs is even remotely available.

Does POR reach for Markkanen? He will be available, but Ainge will extract a pound of flesh in the deal. He could fit if POR utilizes Camara at SG. I don't like the fit necessarily

POR trading their 25' 1st for Okoro, P.Williams, Bey, Hachimura, Clarke or Kispert level player would be extremely underwhelming...

Not one of those guys is worth that pick IMO, Okoro\Williams \Hachimura\Clarke are all overpaid and Kispert is a meh level player.