cgf wrote:JayTWill wrote:cgf wrote:
Didn't mean to ignore this, but you write so much that it's hard to find the time to respond without feeling like I'm giving you shortschrift / skipping some of your points. But I'll try to group my responses to cover most of what you mentioned here
Let me start with Deuce, who we have seen play big minutes for short stretches...but that's very different from playing those same minutes for a whole season. That's why I think it was good coaching for Thibs to be patient with Deuce and let him set a new career high in MPG, without leaning on him too much and at any point over burdening him.
I know that as fans we want to see the kids as much as possible and some assume that all PT helps development, but we've seen too many kids' development stagnate when they get overwhelmed and we don't see these kids in practice every day the way the coaches do. So I think there's a reason that Thibs isn't treating Kolek & Dadiet the same way he treated Quickley, Grimes, or McBride...despite the obvious need that has Thibs using his bench less than ever before.
I'm actually a fan of both our healthy rookies' potential...Dadiet's stroke looks like it should hit and he moves his feet well defensively, but when he came in tonight the first thing he did was give up an And-1 with a silly foul, before missing on an open 3. We saw what Deuce did to earn more PT when it wasn't there, now we're seeing what Dadiet is doing with plenty of PT for him to claim.
Similarly, Kolek looks very crafty, but what has he shown to win the job from Payne? Cam is a better defender and despite his shooting funk over the past month or so, is still shooting a decent percentage from 3, who doesn't turn the ball over often, and has a tighter handle than Tyler. I'm optimistic that by next spring Kolek will be an upgrade over Payne, but right now? That's just wishcasting.
Hart is the heart / grit in that starting lineup, that's why he gets such big minutes even when his shot is off...well that, and the connectivity he provides as a passer & playmaker in transition, for a team that lacks secondary playmaking. I certainly won't argue that I wouldn't have played Shamet over him down the stretch against GSW, I posted as much in the gamethread, but again Shamet just was not playing this well 20+ games ago. He is now and his minutes have been way up.
After the past 4 years, why do you assume that Thibs wouldn't use his depth more than he has been, if it was there for him? He's never lead the league in bench minutes, but he's never come close to using his bench this little...and as we've gotten healthier he's been using them more.
Like tonight they got 72 minutes before garbage time, after 57 bench minutes against GSW because Payne had a terrible night and Mitch visibly gassed during his shifts. That's not crazy or anything, but 70 bench minutes leaves just 34 minutes for each of the starters to fill. And we have averaged more than 70 bench minutes a game in each of the past 4 teams.
So all of the evidence points to the rookies just not being ready...which is seldom helped by rushing and setting them up to fail. But I believe in erring on the side of over-cooking young players, keeping them challenged but setting them up to succeed by gradually increasing their responsibilities. I know others have other philosophies wrt youth development.
Also I don't care about seeding per say...in fact, I wouldn't mind if Indiana passed us so we could face Milwaukee in round one and Cleveland in round 2...but not only does winning breed good habits; us having stacked so many wins gives us more wiggle room to experiment now that our guys are starting to get healthy.
You can't say Thibs doesn't want to over burden Deuce by giving him more than 24 mpg when that is exactly what he did with him last year for months. He was a non rotation player for months last year and became the backup point guard in January, a role that he struggled with as the offense would fall apart when he came for Brunson. He looked more natural as an off ball player while Thibs ramped him up to almost 36 minutes per game and even had him starting.
At the same time Thibs took Hart from a bench player playing 28-30 minutes to a starter playing 40+ minutes for 4 months straight while his efficiency tanked. Again this year he has increased his minutes as the season has gone along even though he has been struggling with his shot for months. If someone looks overburdened I would say it is Hart. The numbers say that the team has performed better with McBride on the court in place of Hart. It is Thibs choice to continue to play Hart a league leading amount of minutes but you can't pretend that he hasn't had another option this year.
As far as the young guys not being ready I really have no idea if they are ready or not. You said Thibs gave them a chance. Playing Dadiet 1 game before removing him from the rotation is not a chance imo. Playing him 3 games where he actually didn't look terrible a month later and then removing him from the rotation. These are the 5 games that he entered the game in the 1st half. The 5th game he only entered at the end of the first half when OG was in foul trouble so Thibs only played him in the normal rotation for 4 games. I didn't include his 2nd half stats as they include a ton of random garbage time.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/boxscores-traditional?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*paco&GameSegment=First%20HalfNothing incredible but nothing indicating that the moment he stepped on the floor things would immediately fall apart for the team.
You mentioned Kolek not being able to play next to Brunson or Payne. Payne missed time in early November. In one of those games Thibs played Kolek for a total of 1:45 in the second quarter and did not play him for the rest of the game while the starters played 40+ and got outplayed by the Pacers. Giving a player less than 2 minutes of play is not giving them a chance to succeed or fail. These are his stats from the first half of games. Once again it is nothing impressive but nothing that indicates the team would just fall apart the moment he touches the court.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/boxscores-traditional?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*kolek&GameSegment=First%20HalfI'm not expecting the rookies to be perfect but when the team is shorthanded they are an option to play instead of playing the starters 40+ minutes like Thibs did early in the season. I can understand him playing Payne over Kolek at times even though Thibs has benched Payne in the second half of games multiple times so i'm not sure how much faith he has in him.
If Thibs was simply looking for as much mistake free basketball as possible the last person that should be leading the league in minutes is Josh Hart
I feel like he will give you at least 3-5 "wtf was that" moments per game. He will routinely turn down a wide open shot in the half court stagnating the offense or forcing someone into a much more difficult shot. He will have a few bad turnovers. He will get blown by on the perimeter and also lose track of his man off ball and he makes it difficult to run a half court offense when KAT is off the floor and he is paired with another non-shooting big.
In just the last few games we have seen him dribble out the clock at the end of the 4th instead of taking the wide open shot causing the game to go to OT where unfortunately they lost Brunson and the game. We also saw him pick up a inbounding violation while running the baseline almost costing the team another game.
I'm not expecting the rookies to be regular rotation players for the entirety of the year or to win all of their minutes on the court but if the team is missing 4 potential rotation players in November against an Indiana team missing 4+ potential rotation players Thibs was not required to play multiple starters 40+ minutes while giving a DNP to Dadiet and playing Kolek less than 2 minutes of playing time. That was his choice. In the end Knicks still lost and the bench wasn't even given a chance to fail but the starters did. His strategy of shortening the rotation doesn't always lead to success while it inhibits potential growth from guys you may need later.
Thibs clearly has guys he trusts more. Those are the guys he plays the most and it is not always determined by what is actually happening on the court. He even said while defending Mikal during his early season struggles that Mikal had a track record of good play so he is not worried about him but when a rookie plays poorly that may just be who they are as a player. He will give a veteran a much longer runway than he will give a younger player even Deuce.
Playing Deuce more minutes and Hart less is doable. Playing rookies when you are down 3-4 rotation player is doable. Playing Payne or Shamet in the 2nd half of a close game instead of riding 1-2 starters the last 24 minutes is doable. Keeping Sims in the rotation for a bit when Precious was getting back in shape to play him at the 4 next to KAT was doable. Keeping Precious in the regular rotation when the team was 100% after Mitch returned and getting into shape was doable.
Thibs chose not to do all these things which is leading to higher minutes this year for many players and not sure how beneficial it was/will actually be in the end.
Shouldn't that suggest that these kids aren't ready to contribute like all of the other kids Thibs did give PT when he needed them? There's just nothing that he's shown in games suggesting Dadiet is ready to play without hurting us. His EPM is -3.2, his Darko is -2.0, BPM is -5.6, On-Off is -11.8 from an OnCourt of -6.8. Like what metrics are there that suggest he hasn't been straight up bad so far? If he was killing it in practice Thibs would be trying to give him chances, the way he did Grimes & McBride.
Which is the same problem with Kolek, the fact that Thibs had a need for a player like him and didn't give him more run should tell us something. Especially when Thibs gave Hukporti some burn, so even if you want to ignore the way he handled our kids in previous years, Kolek isn't getting as much of a chance as Huk did before getting hurt...which suggests that he's not outperforming Payne or McBride in practice.
Thibs is above all a pragmatist who still refuses to concede any minutes for the sake of rest, unless he has a 25+ pt lead...he's learned from and adjusted a lot of the old criticisms about him but he still can't bring himself to leave a lineup out there that's just getting wrecked. So the guys he trust are the guys that help us build leads or close deficits. His only dogma is winning, so he won't stick with something that isn't working just because it should on paper or we'd like it too...like remember how every season he'd try to play Julius & Obi together at the start of the year; whether at the 4/5 or 3/4, but when it failed defensively he'd pull the plug.
I'm with you on giving Deuce more of Hart's minutes, but I also think Thibs was right to show some restraint with McBride and not just give him the full Quickley/Hart treatment of 30mpg off the bench in his first full season as a part of the rotation. Yes he's done it for stretches, but that's different than doing it night in and night out. And I also agree that Thibs has erred on the side of continuity a little too much this season, and I'd prefer if he tinkered a little more...but he's starting to do that more now that he's got more options to tinker with.
If we get healthy and Thibs is still giving the bench less than 60mpg total, then I'll start complaining about it too...unless it wins us a ring...but having watched Thibs growth as the coach of the local chicago bulls, and then the TimberBulls whom I watched regularly with my best friend...a bulls fan who was sad about the Bulls sucking again...before his Knicks tenure, the most logical conclusion to me to draw from our bench usage this season, is that we just haven't had the quality on our bench that we have had in season's past.
And despite badly wanting Kolek, Dadiet, and Sims to have become impact subs for us this season, I don't see any reason to think that has happened or would have happened if Thibs gave them as much PT as he could without dropping us into play-in territory. Kolek has good ideas, but his handle is just so much looser (it comes up way higher) than McBride & Payne's. Dadiet moves his feet well, and responded well when challenged 1-on-1, but looked lost away from the ball and has made a lot of silly decisions/fouls that they'll hammer out of him in practice.
Next season could be totally different and we could be flooded with depth if the snag someone good with the taxpayer MLE, bring Precious back on the cheap to retain his birdrights, and both of those kids become the dynamic bench guys we hope they do, but Thibs loves winning too much not to have played them if they were ready to help. That's what he's done with every other kid who was ready to contribute and filled a need, whether they were "thibs kinda players" or not

I don't care about their advanced metrics in garbage time next to Matt Ryan, Jacob Toppin, Anton Watson, other rookies or any of the random guys just joining the team thrown out there after sitting for 2 and half hours and not playing for weeks/months while playing against another group of random guys. You might as well be giving me his EPM from summer league.
Cleaningtheglass has Dadiet having a net rating +11.9 in non-garbage time which i'm sure is all from that short stint in November where the Knicks won all those games before Thibs removed him from the rotation. His on/off is +6.3. It's from such a small sample size that I wouldn't say it would translate throughout the season or he is the reason for those numbers but apparently Thibs saw something in that period and decided to only play him in garbage time for the rest of the year which you seem to be judging him by.
Honestly I don't even care about those numbers either. I was just looking for someone to eat some minutes and possibly gain some experience instead of playing 6.5-7 man rotation in November like a mad man while losing to a team playing Johnny Furphy, Enrique Freeman and some other guy that would never touch the court for Thibs.
Playing guys excessive minutes just to get a higher seed makes no sense to me especially when many of the wins have come against mediocre to bad competition. I'm not even sure if the minutes were needed to beat many of the teams they did. The 5 man lineup of Brunson/Hart/Bridges/OG/KAT has not been a dominant unit and they are a clunky fit in some ways.
Brunson and KAT are a terrible pairing defensively. Brunson dominates the ball which can limit the offensive impact of others. The wings aren't great catch and shoot players and they have limited volume. They lack a natural facilitator in that unit. Hart takes on that role at times but part of that is to limit the negative impact of him playing off-ball, not because he is someone that you can trust to make the right decision all the time. The offense is stagnant and the defense isn't great. I think that 5 man lineup might actually have a negative net rating since the new year.
McBride, Shamet and maybe even the rookie Dadiet are better catch and shoot players than the starting wings this year. Kolek might be the team's most natural facilitator even as a rookie. Guys like Sims, Precious, Hukporti and Mitch can give you minutes but it's probably best not to pair them with another poor/non-shooter like Hart who is leading the league in minutes. Payne is a wild card that can up the tempo. Defensively some of the bench guys are better fits than some of the starters.
Thibs could have broken up his most used 5 man lineup and plugged other guys into different roles throughout the game and still had the same or possibly a greater impact. We are currently watching Mikal look better offensively without Brunson. Instead he chose to lean on the starters more individually and as a unit and they might be wearing down.
KAT is playing through pain in the first year of a supermax. Hart has been dealing with knee issues. OG looks fatigued and coming off of a foot injury. Brunson is out for who knows how long and Mikal is complaining about the minutes. If Thibs wants a better bench he needs to make better use of his bench. Who is going to come play for him at the vet min or taxpayer MLE with the way he handles the bench? He is not finding another starting level bench player like IQ, DDV, Hart or iHart for that money and it doesn't seem like he will develop one either. The trade assets are limited now.
We will have to agree to disagree on Thibs and his methods.