Dirk Nowitzki vs. Kevin Durant

[Basileus777]

Dirk was a better offensive pillar and the track record of Dallas' offenses supports that. I'd rather build my offense around his skillset than Durant's. Anyone saying Durant is a tier above Dirk is just looking at boxscores.

[AEnigma]

To me this is a bit like taking Anthony Davis over Giannis. It may feel like Dirk is the more “limited” player, but nothing outside of theory convincingly supports the idea that Durant provides the same tier of value.

That said, I have their peaks as relatively even, and I would probably prefer to have peak Durant in the modern (2017-) era than I would Dirk.

[OhayoKD]

no argument for durant unless you leave the realm of era-relativity

[tsherkin]

no argument for durant unless you leave the realm of era-relativity

"No argument" is a pretty bold statement. Care to defend it?

[OhayoKD]

no argument for durant unless you leave the realm of era-relativity

"No argument" is a pretty bold statement. Care to defend it?

Attempt an era-relative argument I can't rip in one reply and I'll concede

[Peregrine01]

what is Dirks argument for peak? defense, playmaking, scoring all favor KD. shooting is pretty equal. handle favors KD. midrange could favor Dirk depending on when you define KDs peak. KD better at getting to the basket.

Because basketball isn’t a one on one game that’s evaluated based on a list of skills. Dirk was much more inclined to play a team game whereas KD was always kinda in his own world on the court and off.

[lessthanjake]

For reference, here are their actual EPMs in the RS during the 14-year spans that I think we could broadly call each guy’s prime (2010-2023 for Durant and 2001-2014 for Dirk). I’ve also included an average of these numbers (not minutes-weighted, but I doubt that’d meaningfully change things):

Durant’s RS EPM

2010: +6.3
2011: +4.1
2012: +5.3
2013: +7.5
2014: +7.6
2015: +6.1
2016: +7.6
2017: +7.2
2018: +4.8
2019: +5.6
2020: N/A
2021: +5.5
2022: +5.9
2023: +6.8

Average: +6.2

Dirk’s RS EPM

2001: +5.2
2002: +5.2
2003: +6.8
2004: +4.7
2005: +6.1
2006: +6.3
2007: +6.5
2008: +5.8
2009: +2.9
2010: +3.8
2011: +6.0
2012: +4.0
2013: +2.7
2014: +5.2

Average: +5.1

These numbers are indicative of a fairly similar level of player, but with Durant looking a tick above, both in terms of average and in terms of peak numbers.

FWIW, while playoff impact data is low-sample-size data that shouldn’t be taken all that seriously even when using box/tracking data to help stabilize it, here’s their playoff EPM in those years. Since playoff runs can be of very different lengths, I’ve also provided a total minutes-weighted average:

Durant’s Playoff EPM

2010: +0.0
2011: +4.5
2012: +5.3
2013: +4.8
2014: +3.1
2016: +2.3
2017: +6.7
2018: +5.7
2019: +5.5
2021: +5.4
2022: -1.9
2023: +1.2

Minutes-Weighted Average: +4.4

Dirk’s Playoff EPM (note: EPM does not have the 2001 playoffs)

2002: +2.8
2003: +3.4
2004: +4.0
2005: +0.3
2006: +6.2
2007: +0.7
2008: +3.2
2009: +5.1
2010: +3.6
2011: +5.6
2012: +0.9
2014: -1.2

Minutes-Weighted Average: +3.6

So FWIW, the playoff EPM data is consistent with the RS data, in that it has them looking fairly similar, but with Durant ahead on average and also having the higher peak. As noted above, the playoff data does not have 2001 for Dirk, but considering that he had a negative on-off in those playoffs and pretty average box-score numbers for him, I suspect if anything it might slightly lower his numbers if we had that data.

Of course, this is one data source, and I think raw RAPM probably likes Dirk more (while most other data sources don’t tend to go back far enough to really evaluate Dirk). I’m not really sure myself which one I think was better, but I do think it’s a pretty close call and would depend mostly on what data sources one puts the most weight on, and also just on eye-test preference. I also think consideration of things like leadership and injuries would tend to weigh in Dirk’s favor.

[MiamiBulls]

Peak Durant. Career Dirk

Dirk's Prime is far more stable, less injury prone and more sure handed than Durant especially as an Offensive engine in the Regular Season. IMO, the 5-year Prime of 2005/06 to 2010/11 was comfortably better than any consecutive 5-year period from Durant. With a 10-year Prime 2001/02 to 2010/11 being arguably better also.

Peak wise, Durant IMO is a better basketball player. Personally never bought this idea that's prevalent on here that Dirk was a legitimate plus defender or 'comfortable positive' defender by any stretch. There's far too much regurgitation of noisy junk one number Defensive metrics to suggest to the basketball viewer what to think.

Film objectively backs up the idea that Dirk was an extremely problematic defender given his limited physical tools. Dirk's lateral speed was disastrous, his lack of rim protection for a player who primarily played Power Forward was potentially catastrophic.

His primary saving grace during the 2000s was the fact that he was socially stereotyped as the "soft European", so opposing Offensive teams would play into Dirk's limited defensive strengths of physical interior post play. If he played more teams with the philosophical approach of D' Antoni's Suns then Dirk, as Shaq would say, would be BBQ Chicken almost every night.

As rotational defender on the perimeter, Dirk was embarrassing; it was almost always an open jump shot or a semi-open jumper for the opposing team. He couldn't bend his knees, he moved his feet as if he had a light sheet of cement block attached to the bottom of his shoes. Durant is far more pliable defensively IMO and doesn't have these debilitating warts on Defense that Dirk had.

[ball_takes23]

Peak Durant. Career Dirk

Dirk's Prime is far more stable, less injury prone and more sure handed than Durant especially as an Offensive engine in the Regular Season. IMO, the 5-year Prime of 2005/06 to 2010/11 was comfortably better than any consecutive 5-year period from Durant. With a 10-year Prime 2001/02 to 2010/11 being arguably better also.

Dirk was also better as an Offensive engine in the playoffs too (minus 2007). KD basically got to play his entire prime next to a HOF pg who acted as the focal point of the offense and took a lot of the defensive pressure off of him. When Westbrook went down in 2013 he struggled a lot against Memphis losing in 5 and going 5/21 in the decisive game. Then he plays the next 8 years next to WB/Curry/Harden, having great postseasons in 17,18, 19 (pre-Achilles) and 21, then Harden gets traded to Philly and he has his worst playoffs ever in 22 playing next to Kyrie who is more of a SG than a PG . He's also struggled in the playoffs without a true PG in phx but he's past his prime now.

Agree with what you said about Dirk's defense as well, in today's game you basically would have no chance to win a series against a 5-out team like Boston with Dirk because he's gonna get hunted worse than Luka did in the finals last year.

[One_and_Done]

Definitely KD for both.

[Texas Chuck]

Some only saw old Dirk. Young Dirk was an athlete.

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

[One_and_Done]

Some only saw old Dirk. Young Dirk was an athlete.

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

And was he more athletic than young KD?

[Texas Chuck]

Some only saw old Dirk. Young Dirk was an athlete.

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

And was he more athletic than young KD?

No.

Odd response to something I didn't claim. But this idea that Dirk was always 38 on defense is laughable. Yet some still persist with it.

[One_and_Done]

So Dirk wasn't more athletic. Glad we agree. What exactly was he better at than KD?

[Texas Chuck]

So Dirk wasn't more athletic. Glad we agree. What exactly was he better at than KD?

Basketball

But I wasn't even arguing the topic. Was just pointing out the truth that Dirk's defense at 39 isn't representative of his defense for most of his career. Was he a great defender? Of course not. Was he much more effective than he was portrayed based on old Dirk and tired stereotypes? Yes.

Even as he aged, Dirk was terrific at closing out on jumpers because he was faithful to do it on every play. And he was still a 7 foot tall man. Dirk was not just a solid post defender, but had multiple seasons where he graded out as the most effective post defender in the league (obviously he wasn't, but it shows that when he defended the post he more than held his own). He had great hands. He was as good a playoff defensive rebounders as guys like KG and Duncan and better than Dream. He got back on defense relentlessly limiting transition. He never turned the ball over(Mavs were tops in the league basically every year) again limiting transition.

All that matters in defense, not just he couldn't keep Iverson in front of him on the perimeter lol.

That's all. I'm not trying to sell any KD guys on Dirk. I can see the focus on skills and not impact by most posters taking him. And Dirk isn't going to win a beauty contest against KD and I've given my Dirk case too many times on here already. For instance, people either accept you can be a great shot creator without high assist totals or they won't. And make no mistake Dirk was much better at elevating teammates than KD despite the assist edge to Durant.

Carry on.

[70sFan]

One thing is certain - Dirk was a more valuable weapon as the centerpiece of the offense. Considering their skillsets, I doubt he'd fare worse on a more balanced attack like Warriors offense.

Of course Durant has defensive advantage, but you have to be quite high on Durant's defense to put him ahead for careers and I am certainly not high on his defense.

Peak is arguable, careers are not. Durant keeps being overrated because people like tall, lanky shooters with exaggerated crossover.

[OhayoKD]

Some only saw old Dirk. Young Dirk was an athlete.

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

And was he more athletic than young KD?

No.

Odd response to something I didn't claim. But this idea that Dirk was always 38 on defense is laughable. Yet some still persist with it.

Stop talking to yourself

[1993Playoffs]

One thing is certain - Dirk was a more valuable weapon as the centerpiece of the offense. Considering their skillsets, I doubt he'd fare worse on a more balanced attack like Warriors offense.

Of course Durant has defensive advantage, but you have to be quite high on Durant's defense to put him ahead for careers and I am certainly not high on his defense.

Peak is arguable, careers are not. Durant keeps being overrated because people like tall, lanky shooters with exaggerated crossover.

I mostly agree with some pushback, I feel Dirk is somewhat overrated compared to KD and his low points are never talked about enough, I mean yeah KD had some under-performances but 2007 is a pretty big one for Dirk. And others. Plus he really fell off defensively in his 30s in a way i can’t really say KD did though.

[Texas Chuck]

I mostly agree with some pushback, I feel Dirk is somewhat overrated compared to KD and his low points are never talked about enough, I mean yeah KD had some under-performances but 2007 is a pretty big one for Dirk. .

I mean if you think 2007 hasn't been talked about.....

And the thing with that is its 2 games. He couldn't make shots in game 1 or game 6(and yes being that bad in 2 games as your team's star is really bad when 4 losses eliminates you).

But how much weight should those 2 games carry when we know he was an all-time great playoff scorer?

His other playoff "failures" are of course the 1st round in 2005 against Houston which is where the false narrative of TMac being a great defender largely comes from, even though Ryan Bowen was doing most of the work. Dallas won that series though... And then 2014 against the Spurs where if he plays well in game 1, we never see that dominant run from the Spurs where they go on to beat all other opponents by huge margins. Dallas would have won in a massive upset and ironically that series would be seen as a boon to Dirk.

IDK, I'm not sure looking at playoff performances is a good way to make a an-anti Dirk case here.

[70sFan]

One thing is certain - Dirk was a more valuable weapon as the centerpiece of the offense. Considering their skillsets, I doubt he'd fare worse on a more balanced attack like Warriors offense.

Of course Durant has defensive advantage, but you have to be quite high on Durant's defense to put him ahead for careers and I am certainly not high on his defense.

Peak is arguable, careers are not. Durant keeps being overrated because people like tall, lanky shooters with exaggerated crossover.

I mostly agree with some pushback, I feel Dirk is somewhat overrated compared to KD and his low points are never talked about enough, I mean yeah KD had some under-performances but 2007 is a pretty big one for Dirk. And others. Plus he really fell off defensively in his 30s in a way i can’t really say KD did though.

I'd say it's Durant whose lows are heavily overlooked.