Ball vs Ayo trade

[Dan Z]

I can't imagine that Lonzo's value around the league is very high so I bet they keep him (unless his contract is used in a bigger deal).

But they can't rely upon him due to his health.

What could they get for Ayo? My guess is not very much, which is why I wouldn't be surprised if he stays too.

The draft might also effect this (if they get a guard).

[Infinity2152]

Semms to me if we're trading players, priority should be:

Nikola Vucevic $21.5 mill
Kevin Huerter $18 mill
Jevon Carter $6.8 mill
Dalen Terry $5.4 mill

Then one of Ayo or Coby, because they're both expiring. Depending on how both look next year and what/if Ayo extends on a team friendly deals, may be worth extending keeping both.

Re-sign Tre Jones. Not a lot of money available in free agency this summer, we could get a bargain deal. On a good contract, he could at the least be a valuable trade piece that goes up in value like Caruso.

No time limit on Ball, at least not this year.
Only trade if it's truly worth it.

Before we make any guard plans, we should be pushing hard everywhere to move Vucevic, Terry, Huerter and Carter.

[meekrab]

3. Giddey, FRP, then Huerter at 18 mil

Nothing we can do to help you if this is your evaluation

[League Circles]

3. Giddey, FRP, then Huerter at 18 mil

Nothing we can do to help you if this is your evaluation

Which part of it is wrong? Inconceivable that we might draft a 3 or that if we do he might be better than Huerter?

[eierluke]

I don't really view the Bulls' predicament as Ball vs. Ayo. It's Coby vs. Ayo vs. neither.

Ball is on a cheap deal and hasn't been super available. I'm hopeful he'll be healthy next year and ready for a larger role, but at the moment, he's just in sort of "give you what he can, when he can" mode. He's a luxury that you don't organize your guard rotation around.

The reason it's Coby vs. Ayo vs. neither is that Coby and Ayo are expiring in 2026 and can only be extended for 140% of their final-year salary of their current deal or 140% of the NBA's average salary, whichever is greater (which to my understanding is effectively the MLE based on what Doug has noted in other discussions about this). That's probably enough to extend Ayo. It's not going to be enough for Coby. So now you have to use your projected 2026 cap space to keep him.

This offseason is something of an inflection point. Do you want to intentionally be bad in 2026, get a high draft pick, and then have a bunch of cap space to make deals? In that case, you trade Coby. You might get something decent for him if he continues his hot streak down the stretch, though his value may be limited given the team trading for him will face the same salary limitations when re-signing him. You don't really care about having "too many guards" or whatever because roster fit is secondary to player development and accumulating losses to max your draft pick. Alternatively, while this might not be prudent, the Bulls will be well-situated to deal some combination of Coby, Ayo, the guys received in the Zach trade, draft capital, expiring salary, etc. to go big game hunting. That sure seems like something AK would historically be interested in doing. For the first time in a while, they do have a decent number of assets to do something like this.

The plan I'm worried about is essentially "run it back," because it could lock you in to a mediocre roster for a while. Let's say you use the draft pick and bring the roster back, more or less. You're going to be good enough to screw up next year's pick (maybe even if you do end up unloading guys at the trade deadline), but not good enough to meaningfully make any playoff noise. Coby has a good year, so you use a huge chunk of 2026 cap space to re-sign him. You also extend Ayo. Now what?

The Bulls have a ton of different paths they could take right now and it'll be pretty interesting to see what they do. Sure would be a good time to have a capable front office!

I think the "run it back" strategy is AK's strategy. He is clearly focused on hoping for enough marginal improvement with middling talent to keep his job. Here's the thing IMO, this team has shown me that there is a fair bit of upside room if it can just remove the minutes played by bad players. We might not like the notion because it lacks the upside and promise that would come with tanking for a star, but if we had this exact roster and you told me we went to this rotation:

Ball, Jones
White, Ayo
Giddey, Huerter
Matas, Smith, Phillips
Collins, Smith

I think that roster could be a .500 or better team. We are absolutely decimated by the horrid, play of Vuc, Pat, and Terry.

Good observation, almost (I left Phillips out in my calculation) exactly what I am thinking!

[eierluke]

Semms to me if we're trading players, priority should be:

Nikola Vucevic $21.5 mill
Kevin Huerter $18 mill
Jevon Carter $6.8 mill
Dalen Terry $5.4 mill

Then one of Ayo or Coby, because they're both expiring. Depending on how both look next year and what/if Ayo extends on a team friendly deals, may be worth extending keeping both.

Re-sign Tre Jones. Not a lot of money available in free agency this summer, we could get a bargain deal. On a good contract, he could at the least be a valuable trade piece that goes up in value like Caruso.

No time limit on Ball, at least not this year.
Only trade if it's truly worth it.

Before we make any guard plans, we should be pushing hard everywhere to move Vucevic, Terry, Huerter and Carter.

Why should we trade any of our expiring contracts, we would have to take almost the same salary back (few teams below the cap)?
Why should we especially trade Huerter? I like what he shows, he is just overpaid. But why not resigning him for reasonable money, if we can't get a hand on a top free agent in 2026?

[dougthonus]

I think considering the emergence of Giddey, and the increasing likelihood that Coby and even Jones are kept due to increasingly strong play, that most would agree that we're starting to look a bit crowded on the perimeter for next year, and that the skills of Ball and Ayo, at least offensively, are starting to look like they might be less important than they previously were. Considering it's unlikely that they are both here beyond their current deals, I think we should look to trade at least one of them this summer and let the other guy play the "utility glue guy perimeter defender" role.

Who do you think is likely worth more in trade?

Who do you like for us more long term (if one were to stay for their next contract)?

Is Ball even eligible for trade or do we have to wait til like December 15th or whatever due to his new deal?

Trade whomever gives you more value back or trade both if you want.

[dougthonus]

To put the roster logjam in more perspective, you can make a strong argument that the Bulls next year project to have the most insanely overpaid 3rd string (or at least 3rd best guy at each of the five positions) imaginable next year:

5: Smith, Collins, then Vuc at 22 mil or whatever
4: Matas, Phillips, then Patrick at 18 mil
3. Giddey, FRP, then Huerter at 18 mil
2: Ayo, Ball, then Terry at 5.4 mil
1: Coby, Jones, then Carter at 6.8 mil

As far as I'm concerned that's basically 70 million in 3rd string players next year that should cost no more than 20 million. Absolute lunacy. Terrible for asset management projections.

3rd string would imply 11-15th in the roster, regularly racking up DNPs. I don't think Vuc, Pat, or Huerter will regularly be racking up DNP-CDs. So of that group only Terry / Carter (combined 12.4M) will be 3rd stringers IMO.

That said, I wouldn't be thrilled about those contracts you mentioned.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

I guess Ayo's better than Terry but I don't think it's enough right now to qualify as significant, plus Terry is taller and has better energy.

I would rather roll with Jones and Terry over Lonzo and Ayo, we don't need either one of them. And even Huerter makes both of them more expendable. We're in a weird spot right now.

[League Circles]

To put the roster logjam in more perspective, you can make a strong argument that the Bulls next year project to have the most insanely overpaid 3rd string (or at least 3rd best guy at each of the five positions) imaginable next year:

5: Smith, Collins, then Vuc at 22 mil or whatever
4: Matas, Phillips, then Patrick at 18 mil
3. Giddey, FRP, then Huerter at 18 mil
2: Ayo, Ball, then Terry at 5.4 mil
1: Coby, Jones, then Carter at 6.8 mil

As far as I'm concerned that's basically 70 million in 3rd string players next year that should cost no more than 20 million. Absolute lunacy. Terrible for asset management projections.

3rd string would imply 11-15th in the roster, regularly racking up DNPs. I don't think Vuc, Pat, or Huerter will regularly be racking up DNP-CDs. So of that group only Terry / Carter (combined 12.4M) will be 3rd stringers IMO.

That said, I wouldn't be thrilled about those contracts you mentioned.

I know, that's why I said the bolded part. Still an issue at C if Jalen Smith insanely sits in the bench next year like he is right now.

[League Circles]

I think considering the emergence of Giddey, and the increasing likelihood that Coby and even Jones are kept due to increasingly strong play, that most would agree that we're starting to look a bit crowded on the perimeter for next year, and that the skills of Ball and Ayo, at least offensively, are starting to look like they might be less important than they previously were. Considering it's unlikely that they are both here beyond their current deals, I think we should look to trade at least one of them this summer and let the other guy play the "utility glue guy perimeter defender" role.

Who do you think is likely worth more in trade?

Who do you like for us more long term (if one were to stay for their next contract)?

Is Ball even eligible for trade or do we have to wait til like December 15th or whatever due to his new deal?

Trade whomever gives you more value back or trade both if you want.

My concern is that we're probably building a team with Coby at the 1 and Giddey at the 3, which leaves a glaring need for an athletic defender at the 2. Ball and Ayo can both do that relatively well, and considering how much better they are offensively than Terry (or Patrick), if we get rid of both of them (and aren't able to draft an ideal fit like VJ Edgecomb), we're diving into a very fundamentally flawed roster build. I think considering we're not very close to being bad enough to project a top pick this summer, it's unlikely that we'll have a really good draft pick until we bottom out, which is hopefully never, but probably at least 4 years away minimum, cause this group is gonna be somewhat committed to whether we like it or not. I share your concerns that it's all premature, but basically, if we're gonna sign Giddey, it doesn't necessarily mean "win now", but it does mean stop trying to "tear it down", and it means that our future developing core should be looked at as our pick this summer, the guys we have now (the ones we want to keep), and players already in the league (via trade or FA). Banking on mid first round picks in the 2026 draft and beyond to fill cornerstone roles would be insane, and I don't think anybody on the roster can be traded for a truly top pick. So we gotta be very conscious of the critical weakness of an Edgecomb type fitting guy, and Ayo and Ball at least nominally can fill that role if needed. If we just dump them for what they're likely worth (not much), we shoot ourselves further in the foot.

The only way a Matas-Giddey-Coby group is gonna be a real winner of any sorts is by ideal fitting guys at the 2 and 5 spots, especially defensively and with at least one being a good shooter too.

[ChettheJet]

I look at it as, if Ayo was on another team, let's say HOU, is he a guy you would target in a trade? What are the skills, stats and whatever he would add to the Bulls for what HOU was asking for?

You saw how many suggestions there were to send Lonzo to how many teams, even with his expiring $21M contract. He brings the ball handling, passing, shooting and defense pus the maturity and leadership a lot of teams feel they could use, especially the Bulls. Look at the SAC game. the Kings, like to Bulls of recent past, needed some leadership from the PG to slow things down with a 20 point lead and not let the Bulls, short handed by Ball and Giddey, fight back and take the win. Monk ut up numbers as did ReRozan but that wasn't enough the Kings needed somebody to put the grips on the ball and the team and hold that lead. No matter the scorers or passers or defenders you need that floor leader to grab hold of the game and not let it slip away.

[Chi town]

I think considering the emergence of Giddey, and the increasing likelihood that Coby and even Jones are kept due to increasingly strong play, that most would agree that we're starting to look a bit crowded on the perimeter for next year, and that the skills of Ball and Ayo, at least offensively, are starting to look like they might be less important than they previously were. Considering it's unlikely that they are both here beyond their current deals, I think we should look to trade at least one of them this summer and let the other guy play the "utility glue guy perimeter defender" role.

Who do you think is likely worth more in trade?

Who do you like for us more long term (if one were to stay for their next contract)?

Is Ball even eligible for trade or do we have to wait til like December 15th or whatever due to his new deal?

Trade whomever gives you more value back or trade both if you want.

My concern is that we're probably building a team with Coby at the 1 and Giddey at the 3, which leaves a glaring need for an athletic defender at the 2. Ball and Ayo can both do that relatively well, and considering how much better they are offensively than Terry (or Patrick), if we get rid of both of them (and aren't able to draft an ideal fit like VJ Edgecomb), we're diving into a very fundamentally flawed roster build. I think considering we're not very close to being bad enough to project a top pick this summer, it's unlikely that we'll have a really good draft pick until we bottom out, which is hopefully never, but probably at least 4 years away minimum, cause this group is gonna be somewhat committed to whether we like it or not. I share your concerns that it's all premature, but basically, if we're gonna sign Giddey, it doesn't necessarily mean "win now", but it does mean stop trying to "tear it down", and it means that our future developing core should be looked at as our pick this summer, the guys we have now (the ones we want to keep), and players already in the league (via trade or FA). Banking on mid first round picks in the 2026 draft and beyond to fill cornerstone roles would be insane, and I don't think anybody on the roster can be traded for a truly top pick. So we gotta be very conscious of the critical weakness of an Edgecomb type fitting guy, and Ayo and Ball at least nominally can fill that role if needed. If we just dump them for what they're likely worth (not much), we shoot ourselves further in the foot.

The only way a Matas-Giddey-Coby group is gonna be a real winner of any sorts is by ideal fitting guys at the 2 and 5 spots, especially defensively and with at least one being a good shooter too.

AK is doing his 9-10 good players vision. The real vision though is trading 3 of those players and picks for a star to elevate the rest of the group.

If this Coby and Giddey are legit we need a stud defensive C and a strong wing defender like you said. Tre is a really good defender but is small. We need another defender like him as a wing which Zo is if he could ever stay healthy.

Our biggest issue outside of top shelf talent would be that C. I believe an anchor like Gobert that is also a lob threat for Giddey would make this team a top 4 team in the East. Not treadmill. Not contender. Just cash cow playoffs every year. JRs ultimate vision.

[Chi town]

I look at it as, if Ayo was on another team, let's say HOU, is he a guy you would target in a trade? What are the skills, stats and whatever he would add to the Bulls for what HOU was asking for?

You saw how many suggestions there were to send Lonzo to how many teams, even with his expiring $21M contract. He brings the ball handling, passing, shooting and defense pus the maturity and leadership a lot of teams feel they could use, especially the Bulls. Look at the SAC game. the Kings, like to Bulls of recent past, needed some leadership from the PG to slow things down with a 20 point lead and not let the Bulls, short handed by Ball and Giddey, fight back and take the win. Monk ut up numbers as did ReRozan but that wasn't enough the Kings needed somebody to put the grips on the ball and the team and hold that lead. No matter the scorers or passers or defenders you need that floor leader to grab hold of the game and not let it slip away.

Yep. We have 3 of those PGs now with Giddey Tre and Zo

[League Circles]

To put this notion into better perspective, let's imagine that we get really lucky and Giddey, Coby and Matas become fringe all star type guys, and get further lucky by not only being able to draft a 5 like Maluach, but that he also pans out as an excellent fit at C. And then we desperately need the right fitting guy at the 2 spot to complement those 4 and be lucky enough to turn a team without a superstar into a nice quasi-contender long term. But we're capped out and can't afford a guy as good as Ayo or Ball would have been to play that role had we kept them, so we instead play a series of journeymen and are never a contender.

I know that's a lot of things to be lucky on and go right, but if we're gonna try to build a winner without a superstar, and we probably are going to try that, every piece really matters. Fit and complementary skills are critical. So imagining all that, is Ayo or Ball a better complement to those other 4 guys if we get plausibly lucky on all 4 of them? It's so hard with both of their health statuses, but the decision being difficult doesn't make it any less of an issue. By the time we know whether or not it even matters (probably at least a year from now minimum), it will probably be too late to really decide on IMO.

[jnrjr79]

Semms to me if we're trading players, priority should be:

Nikola Vucevic $21.5 mill
Kevin Huerter $18 mill
Jevon Carter $6.8 mill
Dalen Terry $5.4 mill

Then one of Ayo or Coby, because they're both expiring. Depending on how both look next year and what/if Ayo extends on a team friendly deals, may be worth extending keeping both.

Re-sign Tre Jones. Not a lot of money available in free agency this summer, we could get a bargain deal. On a good contract, he could at the least be a valuable trade piece that goes up in value like Caruso.

No time limit on Ball, at least not this year.
Only trade if it's truly worth it.

Before we make any guard plans, we should be pushing hard everywhere to move Vucevic, Terry, Huerter and Carter.

Why should we trade any of our expiring contracts, we would have to take almost the same salary back (few teams below the cap)?
Why should we especially trade Huerter? I like what he shows, he is just overpaid. But why not resigning him for reasonable money, if we can't get a hand on a top free agent in 2026?

This is really unanswerable in the abstract. The question is trading them for what? Trade them for bad salary and draft assets to commit to a draft-based rebuild? Reasonable! Trade them as expiring with drafts assets for a star? Risky, but understandable. Trade them just to trade them for other similar-value stuff, but on longer deals? Nope!

[League Circles]

Maybe my concern about losing one of them for nothing later on is outweighed by the benefit in being able to see them both for next year to get more info to make the decision on, considering neither are probably worth much this summer. That said, if we get lucky and get VJ in the draft, I'd choose which guy I like more and trade the other for the best center prospect available.

[sco]

Maybe my concern about losing one of them for nothing later on is outweighed by the benefit in being able to see them both for next year to get more info to make the decision on, considering neither are probably worth much this summer. That said, if we get lucky and get VJ in the draft, I'd choose which guy I like more and trade the other for the best center prospect available.

BKN has a bunch of interesting C's and need a PG. I wonder if we could nab one of them?

Turner is a UFA, but I doubt we could work a deal with IND on a S&T.

[jnrjr79]

Maybe my concern about losing one of them for nothing later on is outweighed by the benefit in being able to see them both for next year to get more info to make the decision on, considering neither are probably worth much this summer. That said, if we get lucky and get VJ in the draft, I'd choose which guy I like more and trade the other for the best center prospect available.

if Coby keeps up this streak, he may well have some good value this summer.

The thing about Coby is that if you're considering keeping him, then it does limit your flexibility, since all your moves have to be made in a way that preserves 2026 cap space sufficient to sign him. Maybe that's worth it, but it's a bit of a constraint if some other opportunities come along.

Ayo - you probably just take your chances that his value is within the 140% extension parameters.

[eierluke]

I would prefer what these role players with their fighting spirit could do for one season.
Let us figure out what
Jones (resigned to 10 to 12 more likely)
White
Giddey (resigned to 25 - 30 more likely)
Matas
Collins

backed up by

Ayo
Huerter
Smith

and from time to time vets

Ball
Vucevic

can do

by summer of 2026 we might have a .50 team missing just one star player (with upcoming cap space)
Free agents stars might be open to join such a team as the missing piece?

If that does not work many of our players would be off our books anyway and we could resign Hurter, Collins etc. to smaler more reasonable money (though we might have have to invest some money in resigning Coby White)?

At least our team acts like a team currently and that alone is fun to watch, even if there might not be enough talent for conference finals.