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Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1541 » by League Circles » Sun Mar 23, 2025 2:03 pm

WindyCityBorn wrote:Who was it that laughed at the idea of teams doubling Josh Giddey? Saw the Lakers do it numerous times tonight and it help him get those 17 assists.

I probably laughed at that LOL. But legit question, they didn't double him just with the ball at the 3 point line did they? I watched the game but there are so many things to focus on I couldn't tell you. I assume you're talking about adding a 2nd help defender to try to smother him as he'd get nearer the key on one of his crafty drives?
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1542 » by League Circles » Sun Mar 23, 2025 2:05 pm

TyrusRose2425 wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
Red8911 wrote:Sometimes we just need to be more patient with young players with potential , something us bulls fans don’t have.


Hmmm. The Bulls made a mistake by bailing on Laurie; otherwise, I can't think of a young player during the past 15 years that they let go, then later regretted. I guess you could say Bobby Portis, but I would respond that 1) he disappointed two additional teams before landing in Milwaukee; 2) the Bucks got him at a lower price than we would have paid (because his value dropped after his stints in Washington & New York), and 3) while useful, he's not a cornerstone player. He's a nice-to-have for teams that have already found their key pieces -- which of course, the Bulls have not,

But yes, evaluating young prospects is hard. Sometimes you hang onto a guy too long and get burned holding an expensive second contract, while other times he blossoms after he leaves. That's the nature of the beast, unfortunately.

I think we’re far away from that time now that I can mention it. Bobby had a huge drinking problem when here. He’d regularly pass out and need club owners to call and carry him into an Uber home. I’m assuming he had the same issue in NYC. That’s probably why he found a home in Milwaukee. Not much of a night life there

First time I'm hearing this but it makes so much sense. I really never liked Portis as a player or person. Not that partying makes him a bad guy, but he's just somewhat dumb and not in control which outweighs his competitiveness and energy IMO.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1543 » by DuckIII » Sun Mar 23, 2025 2:50 pm

NecessaryEvil wrote:
Read on Twitter


We’ve literally found Luka-lite. Can you imagine if OKC would have actually kept him? Sheesh

This is James Harden being traded from OKC all over again.


The reason we were fortunate to get him for an expiring Caruso is they didn’t need him. They have SGA. They would be no better with him today.

And this is exactly why I’ve been 100% dismissive of his last season there and what happened in the postseason. They literally replaced Giddey with one of the 3-4 best players in the world in his prime.

We didn’t have one of those. So Giddey should have always been evaluated in what he could show here. He was a useless redundancy in OKC when he left.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1544 » by cocktailswith_2short » Sun Mar 23, 2025 3:15 pm

Okc got waxed in this trade . People are saying win win but that's only because okc is so good . If okc had even the slightest of down years people would be questioning this trade big time .
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1545 » by kodo » Sun Mar 23, 2025 3:20 pm

Josh Giddey over the last 11 games:

22.3 PPG
10.5 RPG
9.1 APG
1.7 SPG
53.1% FG
52.2% 3P
84.5% FT


Maybe more impressive, he's the 3rd best player in the league in +/- after the All Star break.

1. Gobert +16
2. Haliburton +10.8
3. Giddey +10.3
4. Chet Holmgren +10.0

SGA is +9.3, Luka +7.6.
It's insanely difficult to put up high +/- numbers on a bad team, you almost always have to be on a winning team.

Free Agency is gonna be interesting.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1546 » by cocktailswith_2short » Sun Mar 23, 2025 3:25 pm

kodo wrote:
Josh Giddey over the last 11 games:

22.3 PPG
10.5 RPG
9.1 APG
1.7 SPG
53.1% FG
52.2% 3P
84.5% FT


Maybe more impressive, he's the 3rd best player in the league in +/- after the All Star break.

1. Gobert +16
2. Haliburton +10.8
3. Giddey +10.3
4. Chet Holmgren +10.0

SGA is +9.3, Luka +7.6.
It's insanely difficult to put up high +/- numbers on a bad team, you almost always have to be on a winning team.

Free Agency is gonna be interesting.
with the exception of a small stretch this team has been pretty damn good since the All Star break . If everyone's healthy you're getting a fight .
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1547 » by dougthonus » Sun Mar 23, 2025 3:29 pm

League Circles wrote:
meekrab wrote:
Dan Z wrote:
I bet Brooklyn holds off on spending their cap space for something bigger in 2026, but that's just a guess.

If they get Flagg maybe that changes things...? They might want to win asap in that case.

I mean the cap line in 26-27 is projected at $170M, they could easily offer Giddey a max and still have a max available next summer too.

In any case it's largely academic with the way he's been playing, Giddey will be wearing Bulls' Red next fall whether he signs for 25 or 35 million.


Yeah, I don't even want to think or talk about Giddey's deal anymore lol. It's gonna happen. The Bulls are gonna offer him a big deal during the negotiating period (in hopes he signs it before signing an even larger RFA offer sheet with Brooklyn or whoever), and the they'll match if he doesn't sign. The Bulls seriously might match a max offer for Giddey. Which could be a catastrophe but maybe still a better bet than letting him walk for nothing.

If I were the Bulls I'd front load the offer as much as possible.


I'm bracing myself for Giddey getting the 25% max contract, 5 years, player option on the last year.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1548 » by League Circles » Sun Mar 23, 2025 3:56 pm

dougthonus wrote:
League Circles wrote:
meekrab wrote:I mean the cap line in 26-27 is projected at $170M, they could easily offer Giddey a max and still have a max available next summer too.

In any case it's largely academic with the way he's been playing, Giddey will be wearing Bulls' Red next fall whether he signs for 25 or 35 million.


Yeah, I don't even want to think or talk about Giddey's deal anymore lol. It's gonna happen. The Bulls are gonna offer him a big deal during the negotiating period (in hopes he signs it before signing an even larger RFA offer sheet with Brooklyn or whoever), and the they'll match if he doesn't sign. The Bulls seriously might match a max offer for Giddey. Which could be a catastrophe but maybe still a better bet than letting him walk for nothing.

If I were the Bulls I'd front load the offer as much as possible.


I'm bracing myself for Giddey getting the 25% max contract, 5 years, player option on the last year.

Yeah me too. Hopefully it won't happen, sucks for team building, but it might make as much sense as anything for Brooklyn to try to do, and then might make more sense for the Bulls to match than to let him walk for nothing.

If he keeps killing it til the end of the season, especially if we make the playoffs for real and he looks pretty good in them, Bulls should maybe even pre-emptively use their ability to give him higher annual raises to force him to agree to a non-player option 5th year (either just guaranteed 5th year, team option or just a 4 year deal) and a slightly lower starting amount, such that before FA even starts, he's received an offer from the Bulls that is both the largest total dollars he can make and the minimum 2026-27 cap hit for the Bulls at that amount (due to increasing max raises).

This situation could suck but not as bad as not having a player as promising as Giddey or just kicking the can on the next 5 seasons in hopes of finding a unicorn in the draft that is much better.

Giddey is playing great right now, but his overall numbers this season still aren't that special, and he's still never gonna be a real plus defender, and his agent should know that, so I'd like to think the Bulls can definitely get him at anything close to a max deal. Just sucks that that's way more than we would have wanted. But we need to remember that what we wanted was for him to eventually become worth a max deal while playing on something much less. Obviously you always want that, but I always say, it's an unrealistic and unsustainable strategy to want to try to build a team on sub market value contracts. Sure you ink them when you can, but you shouldn't project the timing works out in your favor like that. Basically Giddey is starting to pretty consistently look like we wanted him to look next year AFTER he's on a new reasonable deal, he's just doing it uncomfortably early for team optimization.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1549 » by jnrjr79 » Sun Mar 23, 2025 4:19 pm

dougthonus wrote:
League Circles wrote:
meekrab wrote:I mean the cap line in 26-27 is projected at $170M, they could easily offer Giddey a max and still have a max available next summer too.

In any case it's largely academic with the way he's been playing, Giddey will be wearing Bulls' Red next fall whether he signs for 25 or 35 million.


Yeah, I don't even want to think or talk about Giddey's deal anymore lol. It's gonna happen. The Bulls are gonna offer him a big deal during the negotiating period (in hopes he signs it before signing an even larger RFA offer sheet with Brooklyn or whoever), and the they'll match if he doesn't sign. The Bulls seriously might match a max offer for Giddey. Which could be a catastrophe but maybe still a better bet than letting him walk for nothing.

If I were the Bulls I'd front load the offer as much as possible.


I'm bracing myself for Giddey getting the 25% max contract, 5 years, player option on the last year.


I Brooklyn isn’t willing to max him, there is literally no reason to do this.

So, yeah, that’s probably what will happen.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1550 » by dougthonus » Sun Mar 23, 2025 4:33 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:I Brooklyn isn’t willing to max him, there is literally no reason to do this.

So, yeah, that’s probably what will happen.


Giddey, at his peak, looks like a low rung max player (like Franz Wagner just got the max as an example). AK has historically paid every player he's negotiated with the absolute peak of what they have shown (and perhaps more) rather than paying them for the average of what they have done. He's generally done so pre-emptively as well.

For the Bulls, I think they'll end up with Giddey at a max, and I think they'll just have to hope that Giddey's best becomes his average going forward.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1551 » by sco » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:14 pm

dougthonus wrote:
jnrjr79 wrote:I Brooklyn isn’t willing to max him, there is literally no reason to do this.

So, yeah, that’s probably what will happen.


Giddey, at his peak, looks like a low rung max player (like Franz Wagner just got the max as an example). AK has historically paid every player he's negotiated with the absolute peak of what they have shown (and perhaps more) rather than paying them for the average of what they have done. He's generally done so pre-emptively as well.

For the Bulls, I think they'll end up with Giddey at a max, and I think they'll just have to hope that Giddey's best becomes his average going forward.

Doug, your begrudging acceptance of Giddey being a very good player is very satisfying. :lol:
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1552 » by dougthonus » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:23 pm

sco wrote:Doug, your begrudging acceptance of Giddey being a very good player is very satisfying. :lol:


I'm optimistic, because Giddey at his best is really good, like the player of the last six weeks can maybe even be a cornerstone player. It isn't hard for me to envision with continued improvement that Giddey could actually get to legit max player status.

I'm skeptical, because he failed to do this when playing with other really good players, the caliber of competition he's done most of this against, and the short time frame.

I liked the trade initially and more or less said, it's a high upside move if he can fix a few things. Through most of this season he didn't fix any of those things, and I definitely began to lose hope that he would. Through the last six weeks he's fixed a lot of things (better three point shooting, better foul draw rate, stepped up on defense some), and every week that goes by where he maintains this high level of play eats away at all the skeptical arguments.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1553 » by sco » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:25 pm

dougthonus wrote:
sco wrote:Doug, your begrudging acceptance of Giddey being a very good player is very satisfying. :lol:


I'm optimistic, because Giddey at his best is really good, like the player of the last six weeks can maybe even be a cornerstone player. It isn't hard for me to envision with continued improvement that Giddey could actually get to legit max player status.

I'm skeptical, because he failed to do this when playing with other really good players, the caliber of competition he's done most of this against, and the short time frame.

I liked the trade initially and more or less said, it's a high upside move if he can fix a few things. Through most of this season he didn't fix any of those things, and I definitely began to lose hope that he would. Through the last six weeks he's fixed a lot of things (better three point shooting, better foul draw rate, stepped up on defense some), and every week that goes by where he maintains this high level of play eats away at all the skeptical arguments.

You should keep up your skepticism...I feel like it fuels him.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1554 » by dougthonus » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:34 pm

sco wrote:You should keep up your skepticism...I feel like it fuels him.


I'll see if I can text him every morning :lol:
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1555 » by ShouldaPaidBG » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:40 pm

No OKC does not regret the trade. There wasn't enough on ball possessions available for him and never would be, it's as simple as that.

They would only regret the trade if he ends up better than Shai himself
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1556 » by Jcool0 » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:49 pm

ShouldaPaidBG wrote:No OKC does not regret the trade. There wasn't enough on ball possessions available for him and never would be, it's as simple as that.

They would only regret the trade if he ends up better than Shai himself


OKC got what they wanted:

Caruso 2023 Per 36: 12.6 ppg, 4.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.2 blocks

Caruso 2024 Per 36: 12.4 ppg, 5 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 3.1 steals, 1.0 blocks
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1557 » by kodo » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:49 pm

We should be happy if we lock him in for $25M, that's what Terry Rozier (11 ppg 2 apg) and Kyle Kuzma make.
Not sure if that's going to happen any more.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1558 » by sco » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:50 pm

ShouldaPaidBG wrote:No OKC does not regret the trade. There wasn't enough on ball possessions available for him and never would be, it's as simple as that.

They would only regret the trade if he ends up better than Shai himself

I do believe the same guy can look very mediocre with one team and like an allstar with another. Especially a guy who is on-ball.

I think OKC is doing the right thing with Caruso. He's a guy you want to just keep warm and upright until the playoffs and then up his minutes. We used him up during the season and he broke down at the end. He needs to be saved from himself somewhat.
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1559 » by ShouldaPaidBG » Sun Mar 23, 2025 5:54 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
ShouldaPaidBG wrote:No OKC does not regret the trade. There wasn't enough on ball possessions available for him and never would be, it's as simple as that.

They would only regret the trade if he ends up better than Shai himself


OKC got what they wanted:

Caruso 2023 Per 36: 12.6 ppg, 4.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.2 blocks

Caruso 2024 Per 36: 12.4 ppg, 5 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 3.1 steals, 1.0 blocks


More importantly, a top 5 defender in the league
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Re: Josh Giddey Conundrum 

Post#1560 » by kodo » Sun Mar 23, 2025 6:01 pm

The biggest factor is that Caruso has most of his value without the ball in his hands. Giddey as we've seen needs the ball.
We've seen this break up MVP caliber talent before, Dirk & Nash. And both Dirk & Nash agreed it was better for both of them to split up.

(not saying Giddey is Nash level good)

But even with how good AC is, it's notable that OKC barely plays him. He's 10th on their rotation, meaning he's the last guy in a probably 10 man rotation and possible out in a 8 or 9 tight playoff rotation.

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