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Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP

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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#21 » by Walton1one » Mon Mar 24, 2025 7:01 pm

Good post Wiz...

Keeping a 29yr old, 3rd/4th string center whose only definable skill is 3pt shooting, which is nice but not the most important skill you want from your center, but has little value elsewhere is unnecessary. He is owed $2.2mil on a NG deal, they would be better off to let him walk and use that spot on a younger center they can develop, especially since with Williams' surgery (again) and Ayton's salary, they are likely to have both back next year.

They should look to acquire a late 1st or 2nd round pick and draft one of the many interesting big men in this draft, who could then step in when Ayton and Williams are inevitably sent packing?

There are lots of interesting big men in this draft: Johni Broome, Joan Beringer, Alex Condon, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Tomislav Ivisic, Maxime Raynaud, Rocco Zikarsky

Banton will be 26 next year and is a career 31% 3pt shooter, but more problematic IMO is that he is unable to play well within a team structure. Oh, he can show it for a few minutes but then inevitably his nature kicks in and he goes 1v3, blindly drives to the hoop or hoists up a bad shot. He is another end of bench player, but one that does not provide that useful of a skill. His eFG% ranks in the 30th percentile, his TS% ranks in the 32nd percentile.

Instead of resigning him, you know what might be a better idea? Signing a player who can shoot. This year POR ranks 24th in FG% and 24th in 3pt FG%

POR is projected @ $172mil or so. Luxury tax is $187.8mil. Their 1st round pick (11th, would be $4.3). With their 1st round pick they would have 14 players under contract, if they waive Reath, 13. That gives them $13mil or so to go after a shooter and as luck would have it, there are some FA who can shoot available this year

Ty Jerome (28) is probably out of reach, but 43.1% from 3pt range, would be ideal IMO

- Alexander-Walker\MIN (27) would also be ideal, shooting 39.6% from deep could be available with all of MIN cap issues and priority to resign Reid (and they have Divencenzo\Shannon\Dillingham)

- Caris Levert (31) would be another, shooting 41.4% from 3pt
- Luke Kennard (29), shooting 48.5% from 3pt - MEM tried to move him @ the deadline
- Amir Coffey (28), shooting 41% from 3pt (38.4% for career)
- Jake LaRavia (24), shooting 44.4% from 3pt
- Sam Merrill (29), shooting 35.6% from 3pt (career 38.3%)
- Taurean Prince (32), shooting 45.4% from 3pt

MLE is up to $14.1
BAE is up to $5.1

The standard mid-level exception is available to over-the-cap teams who haven’t dipped below the cap to use room and whose team salary remains below the first tax apron. It can run for up to four years, with 5% annual raises. Once a team uses the standard/non-taxpayer MLE, that team is hard-capped at the first tax apron for the rest of the league year.


The bi-annual exception – which can be used for contracts up to two years, with a 5% raise after year one – is only available to teams that are over the cap and below the first tax apron...It can also only be used once every two years


Probably try to get a guy with the BAE on a 2yr deal, unless they can get a guy like Jerome\NAW\maybe LeVert on an MLE, though that caps them at 1st apron, but Cronin does not really seem to care about that, just staying under luxury tax....

If you are "hard capped" at the 1st apron, which happens if you use the taxpayer MLE, you have the following restrictions:

Using more than Tax MLE out of NTMLE
Using BAE
Acquiring player via Sign-and-Trade
Signing a buyout player who made more than NTMLE on previous contract
Using more than 100% in salary matching in a trade
Using a TPE that was created in prior season


Nothing too crazy there IMO, would seem obvious to try and use BAE 1st, unless a good enough player is gettable for MLE. Difficulty would be trading away Ayton\Simons\Williams \Thybulle (if he is on the team) and taking back less salary, but Cronin does not like to make deals during the season anyway, so maybe not?

Thybulle: I still think there's a chance, if he and his agent believe he can get a 3 or 4 year deal with a playoff team at 7-10M/year, that he opts out and signs elsewhere. Maybe a 50-50 chance; maybe lower. It was definitely a mistake to match the offer sheet from Dallas


I completely agree, he tried to get out of POR once already, and chances are (especially with his play, showing he is healthy, same active defender he always has been). he could choose to opt out of $11mil on a team with a limited role, and accept a 2-3 year deal at\slightly less and on a team of his choosing.

I hope that happens, it would alleviate some issues for POR and give them more room under the luxury tax.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#22 » by dckingsfan » Mon Mar 24, 2025 7:30 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:* I don't believe it will be any easier to move Simons and Ayton this summer or before next season's trade deadline than it was 6 weeks ago. Sure, maybe, if the Blazers were willing to take back bad salary for more seasons. But they won't be. Simons and Ayton have minimal value; it's neutral at best, probably negative. Whatever value they have isn't going to increase because they have less time on their deals. Besides all that, I'm about 70% convinced Cronin is goofy enough to be planning on re-signing them


I still believe this is an overly pessimistic take. I suppose I can agree a bit with Ayton, but not with Simons. His contract isn't bad and he's expiring. I don't believe for a second they have "negative" value, neutral fine, but negative just seems over the top imo. FWIW, I just don't believe any player has "negative" value once they're in the final year of their contract. Their value might be limited for a variety of reasons, but they are absolutely movable.

I honestly don't believe the team is even looking to move Ayton this summer or into next season. I think the only players they will be actively looking to unload this summer would be Grant and Simons.


I was thinking more about Ayton when I said negative value. 35.5M for a big who isn't a rim protector, is a mediocre paint defender and mostly a drop-coverage C, rarely gets to the FT line or draws fouls, and can't even reach the 2 assist mark looks like negative value to me

Simons? I just don't think there are more than 1 or 2 teams that would consider him as starter material, and one of them is Portland. He's an awkward fit in any starting playoff lineup that I see out there. Some team may be willing to roll the dice on Simons as a 6th man if they need more floor spacing. But his reputation as a one of the worst defenders in the league is well known and deserved

Yeah, I really think it is going to be hard to move any of Ayton, Simons, Thybulle or Williams.

I think our biggest asset with all of them is to just let them expire.

Sharpe is a different matter, that will depend on if he is willing to take a reasonable declining contract.

Code: Select all

Player        2025-26        2026-27        2027-28
Grant       $32,000,001    $34,206,898    $36,413,790
Henderson   $10,748,040    $13,585,523    
Avdija      $14,375,000    $13,125,000    $11,875,000
Clingan      $7,178,400     $7,519,920     $9,550,298    
Camara       $2,221,677     $2,406,205    

Ayton       $35,550,814       
Simons      $27,678,571       
Williams    $13,285,713       
Thybulle    $11,550,000       
Sharpe       $8,399,983    


This offseason let Banton & Murray walk, resign Walker and Rupert.

Next offseason, don't renew Simons, Williams or Thybulle. Ayton and Sharpe only on very friendly club deals.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#23 » by zzaj » Mon Mar 24, 2025 7:31 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
* Delano Banton: a bit of a ball-hog. I'm not convinced he's a 36% three point shooter. His length is nice and he does work on the defensive end where he's somewhat effective. If it was a choice between him or Reath, I'd take Banton. But again, he's worth 2-3M/year as a end of bench guy; not worth 5-6M/year


I'll play devil's advocate here on Delano...I think 5-6M/year is entirely reasonable on a short contract.

His best position is probably 6th man on a bad team, but on this Blazer roster he offers something that only 1 other Blazer provides--shot creation with size. Camara seems to be developing a little bit in that area, but other than that only Deni is 6'7" or higher and able to create for himself consistently.

Delano is near the top, if not at the top among the guards on the team at defending opposing guards...and this 2-way ability is the thing that I think makes it worth hanging on to him at 6M/year. He's not going to complain about DNPs, he's got some chemistry with Scoot and Sharpe (that trio played in the LA runs last summer), and we've seen how much more effective this team is when they have length out on the court. Now, can you find a rookie that can provide all of those things? Perhaps. Can you find a more talented, 6'9" vet at that cost? Perhaps not.

I 100% agree that he's not going to be a 36% 3pt shooter on volume, but his value is really as a POA shot creator getting to the rim.

Now, obviously the Blazers aren't in a place to be pulling along marginal veteran players...but as long as the team can add some pure shooting to the roster, having a second shot creator with size and that tries on the defensive end on the roster is worth 6M/year. I don't really consider a 6M/year Delano a top5 Blazer roster problem.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#24 » by dckingsfan » Mon Mar 24, 2025 7:50 pm

zzaj wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:* Delano Banton: a bit of a ball-hog. I'm not convinced he's a 36% three point shooter. His length is nice and he does work on the defensive end where he's somewhat effective. If it was a choice between him or Reath, I'd take Banton. But again, he's worth 2-3M/year as a end of bench guy; not worth 5-6M/year

I'll play devil's advocate here on Delano...I think 5-6M/year is entirely reasonable on a short contract.

His best position is probably 6th man on a bad team, but on this Blazer roster he offers something that only 1 other Blazer provides--shot creation with size. Camara seems to be developing a little bit in that area, but other than that only Deni is 6'7" or higher and able to create for himself consistently.

Delano is near the top, if not at the top among the guards on the team at defending opposing guards...and this 2-way ability is the thing that I think makes it worth hanging on to him at 6M/year. He's not going to complain about DNPs, he's got some chemistry with Scoot and Sharpe (that trio played in the LA runs last summer), and we've seen how much more effective this team is when they have length out on the court. Now, can you find a rookie that can provide all of those things? Perhaps. Can you find a more talented, 6'9" vet at that cost? Perhaps not.

I 100% agree that he's not going to be a 36% 3pt shooter on volume, but his value is really as a POA shot creator getting to the rim.

Now, obviously the Blazers aren't in a place to be pulling along marginal veteran players...but as long as the team can add some pure shooting to the roster, having a second shot creator with size and that tries on the defensive end on the roster is worth 6M/year. I don't really consider a 6M/year Delano a top5 Blazer roster problem.

Can't disagree with the logic but... this next season we will still have Scoot, Simons, Sharpe, Thybulle and Deni (playing some) guard.

So, this is for a 6th guard at 26 years of age that likely would not get much playing time. I guess that wouldn't be terrible.

One more wrench in our guessing game is who we draft.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#25 » by Walton1one » Mon Mar 24, 2025 8:27 pm

This offseason let Banton & Murray walk, resign Walker and Rupert.

Next offseason, don't renew Simons, Williams or Thybulle. Ayton and Sharpe only on very friendly club deals.


I'll play devil's advocate here on Delano...I think 5-6M/year is entirely reasonable on a short contract...I 100% agree that he's not going to be a 36% 3pt shooter on volume, but his value is really as a POA shot creator getting to the rim.

Now, obviously the Blazers aren't in a place to be pulling along marginal veteran players...but as long as the team can add some pure shooting to the roster, having a second shot creator with size and that tries on the defensive end on the roster is worth 6M/year. I don't really consider a 6M/year Delano a top5 Blazer roster problem.


Kris Murray is under contract, so if they cut him, they still have to absorb his salary ($3.3) on the books, so cutting him is not really an option IMO. He has a TO in 26/27. They could try and offload him somewhere for a 2nd I guess...

Luxury tax is $187.8mil, POR projected salary for 14 players (including 2025 pick) is $177mil.

That does not include Banton or Walker.

It does include Reath whose $2.2mil deal is NG and Rupert who has a TO for $2.2mil

Would you rather waste that $10mil on resigning Banton & Walker two end of bench, meh options or maybe acquire a shooter to come off the bench that might be more useful\practical as a 7th\8th man?

I'd rather spend that money on a Jerome\NAW\LeVert\Kennard\LaRavia\Merrill than waste it on two guys who will rarely see the floor and when they do don't really provide a ton.

Banton has his uses as an inefficient volume scorer, but if POR is actually trying to win next year, I would think having a better\proven shooter would be much more useful?

Also, Walker is ok, but he is the 5th string forward? Why waste $4-6mil on that? Where is he going to see minutes behind Deni\Camara\Grant\Thybulle\Sharpe? and that is assuming POR does not take a swing guard\forward in the draft, which seems unlikely. So you are talking about a guy who would be 5th\6th in the rotation for minutes that you are paying $4-6mil for? and even if they cut Reath, they would be paying Walker likely more to be that 4th string center behind Ayton\DC\Williams (if healthy)

They should let both go, if they want to compete for the play in next year then they should go get a veteran shooter, that would be way more impactful than Banton\Walker combined.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#26 » by Walton1one » Mon Mar 24, 2025 8:36 pm

I think this is why we are seeing a lot of playoff caliber teams with EOB guys that are rookies, 2-ways, youngins. better to maximize your 1-8\1-10, than waste money on guys 11-15 in your rotation that a 2-way\rookie or journeyman NBA player can provide for less money

POR has (10) rotational players already: Simons-Camara-Deni-Grant-Ayton-Sharpe-Scoot-DC-Thybulle-Williams

(11) if you factor in their 2025 draft pick - Would it not be better to improve their 9th-10th man than overpaying for their 12th/13th best(depending on how you view Murray\Rupert\Reath) players?
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#27 » by BlazersBroncos » Mon Mar 24, 2025 8:46 pm

I like LaRavia as a BAE guy - I can see him getting more but he has dipped in production since going to SAC.

Big, can play both F spots, good passer and shooting well this year.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#28 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Mar 24, 2025 9:17 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:I like LaRavia as a BAE guy - I can see him getting more but he has dipped in production since going to SAC.

Big, can play both F spots, good passer and shooting well this year.


keep in mind, using the BAE hard-caps a team
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#29 » by Walton1one » Mon Mar 24, 2025 9:45 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:I like LaRavia as a BAE guy - I can see him getting more but he has dipped in production since going to SAC.

Big, can play both F spots, good passer and shooting well this year.


keep in mind, using the BAE hard-caps a team


I wasn't sure about that but you are right it does.

Not sure if that really matters for Cronin though? The only real detriment that I could see was that POR would have to take back less than they send out in trade, but that isn't necessarily that hard to do b\t 2 teams, let alone adding a 3rd team, and Cronin doesn't really trade during the season anyway apparently.

However, given that a BAE would hard cap @ 1st apron, it might be better then for POR to utilize their MLE and go after a better player? Getting a swingman who could shoot for that 8th-10th spot on the roster is more valuable for this team than paying it to EOB guys like Banton\Walker\Reath, if the goal is for them to make the playin\playoffs next year.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#30 » by PDXKnight » Tue Mar 25, 2025 12:37 am

Walton1one wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:I like LaRavia as a BAE guy - I can see him getting more but he has dipped in production since going to SAC.

Big, can play both F spots, good passer and shooting well this year.


keep in mind, using the BAE hard-caps a team


I wasn't sure about that but you are right it does.

Not sure if that really matters for Cronin though? The only real detriment that I could see was that POR would have to take back less than they send out in trade, but that isn't necessarily that hard to do b\t 2 teams, let alone adding a 3rd team, and Cronin doesn't really trade during the season anyway apparently.

However, given that a BAE would hard cap @ 1st apron, it might be better then for POR to utilize their MLE and go after a better player? Getting a swingman who could shoot for that 8th-10th spot on the roster is more valuable for this team than paying it to EOB guys like Banton\Walker\Reath, if the goal is for them to make the playin\playoffs next year.


I highly doubt even Cronin is dumb enough to hard cap us
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#31 » by PDXKnight » Tue Mar 25, 2025 12:41 am

Walton1one wrote:Good post Wiz...

Keeping a 29yr old, 3rd/4th string center whose only definable skill is 3pt shooting, which is nice but not the most important skill you want from your center, but has little value elsewhere is unnecessary. He is owed $2.2mil on a NG deal, they would be better off to let him walk and use that spot on a younger center they can develop, especially since with Williams' surgery (again) and Ayton's salary, they are likely to have both back next year.
.


Just want to defend keeping duop. Obviously I wouldn't give him or banton 6 mil but picking up a 2 million option wouldn't be awful for a 3rd stringer given our big man injury issues. If we needed to make a move with the roster spot it's always easy enough to waive him on a minimum contract more or less

It depends on other moves of course, if we draft a center or don't trade many guys this off season maybe we need that roster spot. But in general I don't mind the idea of keeping duop. He's not a world beater but servicable depth at a position where we seem to need it.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#32 » by Wizenheimer » Tue Mar 25, 2025 1:35 am

PDXKnight wrote:
Walton1one wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
keep in mind, using the BAE hard-caps a team


I wasn't sure about that but you are right it does.

Not sure if that really matters for Cronin though? The only real detriment that I could see was that POR would have to take back less than they send out in trade, but that isn't necessarily that hard to do b\t 2 teams, let alone adding a 3rd team, and Cronin doesn't really trade during the season anyway apparently.

However, given that a BAE would hard cap @ 1st apron, it might be better then for POR to utilize their MLE and go after a better player? Getting a swingman who could shoot for that 8th-10th spot on the roster is more valuable for this team than paying it to EOB guys like Banton\Walker\Reath, if the goal is for them to make the playin\playoffs next year.


I highly doubt even Cronin is dumb enough to hard cap us


don't underestimate his dumbness....he hard capped the Blazers for Gary Payton
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#33 » by Wizenheimer » Tue Mar 25, 2025 1:39 am

Walton1one wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:I like LaRavia as a BAE guy - I can see him getting more but he has dipped in production since going to SAC.

Big, can play both F spots, good passer and shooting well this year.


keep in mind, using the BAE hard-caps a team


I wasn't sure about that but you are right it does.

Not sure if that really matters for Cronin though? The only real detriment that I could see was that POR would have to take back less than they send out in trade, but that isn't necessarily that hard to do b\t 2 teams, let alone adding a 3rd team, and Cronin doesn't really trade during the season anyway apparently.

However, given that a BAE would hard cap @ 1st apron, it might be better then for POR to utilize their MLE and go after a better player? Getting a swingman who could shoot for that 8th-10th spot on the roster is more valuable for this team than paying it to EOB guys like Banton\Walker\Reath, if the goal is for them to make the playin\playoffs next year.


using the full-MLE hard-caps a team too

however, the MLE is now just like a TPE. Teams can trade for a player using the MLE. Or teams can use the MLE to take back salary from a team needing cap, tax, and apron relief....and get a draft pick(s) as compensation. The MLE next season should be around 14M
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#34 » by Shem » Tue Mar 25, 2025 2:11 am

Wizenheimer wrote:Simons? I just don't think there are more than 1 or 2 teams that would consider him as starter material, and one of them is Portland. He's an awkward fit in any starting playoff lineup that I see out there. Some team may be willing to roll the dice on Simons as a 6th man if they need more floor spacing. But his reputation as a one of the worst defenders in the league is well known and deserved

That's what I think teams will look at him as and I wouldn't be surprised to see teams roll the dice on him as he will be an expiring contract. But the only reason I can see Portland hanging on to him because of Scoot. He's had plenty of developmental minutes over the last two seasons and Ant still is the better player overall. If Ant is moved, we're going to need to bring back a competent backup point guard. Or maybe we'll get lucky with the lottery balls, get into the top 4 and draft someone like Dylan Harper.

The thing about Scoot is that he was going either 2nd or 3rd in that draft no matter what. Just like whoever won the lottery in 2007 was drafting Oden over Durant. We just happened maybe gotten unlucky to be in the 3rd position in the draft in 2023 so far.
April 4, 2014:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:I never said Dallas was good as Portland


Earlier on December 8, 2013:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:That's the Whole Point Portland is No better than Dallas
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#35 » by Shem » Tue Mar 25, 2025 2:13 am

Shem wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:Simons? I just don't think there are more than 1 or 2 teams that would consider him as starter material, and one of them is Portland. He's an awkward fit in any starting playoff lineup that I see out there. Some team may be willing to roll the dice on Simons as a 6th man if they need more floor spacing. But his reputation as a one of the worst defenders in the league is well known and deserved

That's what I think teams will look at him as and I wouldn't be surprised to see teams roll the dice on him as he will be an expiring contract. But the only reason I can see Portland hanging on to him because of Scoot. He's had plenty of developmental minutes over the last two seasons and Ant still is the better player overall. If Ant is moved, we're going to need to bring back a competent backup point guard. Or maybe we'll get lucky with the lottery balls, get into the top 4 and draft someone like Dylan Harper which means Scott or Ant is on the move.

The thing about Scoot is that he was going either 2nd or 3rd in that draft no matter what. Just like whoever won the lottery in 2007 was drafting Oden over Durant. We just happened maybe gotten unlucky to be in the 3rd position in the draft in 2023 so far.
April 4, 2014:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:I never said Dallas was good as Portland


Earlier on December 8, 2013:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:That's the Whole Point Portland is No better than Dallas
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#36 » by PDXKnight » Tue Mar 25, 2025 2:42 am

Wizenheimer wrote:
PDXKnight wrote:
Walton1one wrote:
I wasn't sure about that but you are right it does.

Not sure if that really matters for Cronin though? The only real detriment that I could see was that POR would have to take back less than they send out in trade, but that isn't necessarily that hard to do b\t 2 teams, let alone adding a 3rd team, and Cronin doesn't really trade during the season anyway apparently.

However, given that a BAE would hard cap @ 1st apron, it might be better then for POR to utilize their MLE and go after a better player? Getting a swingman who could shoot for that 8th-10th spot on the roster is more valuable for this team than paying it to EOB guys like Banton\Walker\Reath, if the goal is for them to make the playin\playoffs next year.


I highly doubt even Cronin is dumb enough to hard cap us


don't underestimate his dumbness....he hard capped the Blazers for Gary Payton


Dang that's definitely dumb.
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#37 » by PDXKnight » Tue Mar 25, 2025 3:40 am

Shem wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:Simons? I just don't think there are more than 1 or 2 teams that would consider him as starter material, and one of them is Portland. He's an awkward fit in any starting playoff lineup that I see out there. Some team may be willing to roll the dice on Simons as a 6th man if they need more floor spacing. But his reputation as a one of the worst defenders in the league is well known and deserved

That's what I think teams will look at him as and I wouldn't be surprised to see teams roll the dice on him as he will be an expiring contract. But the only reason I can see Portland hanging on to him because of Scoot. He's had plenty of developmental minutes over the last two seasons and Ant still is the better player overall. If Ant is moved, we're going to need to bring back a competent backup point guard. Or maybe we'll get lucky with the lottery balls, get into the top 4 and draft someone like Dylan Harper.

The thing about Scoot is that he was going either 2nd or 3rd in that draft no matter what. Just like whoever won the lottery in 2007 was drafting Oden over Durant. We just happened maybe gotten unlucky to be in the 3rd position in the draft in 2023 so far.


I think I'd rather have a 12 ppg type if he could play defense and play within the offense rather than 19 points, zero defense and iso ball. Sure you've gotta have an iso player but ant isn't the guy we want in critical sets
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#38 » by Shem » Wed Mar 26, 2025 12:55 am

PDXKnight wrote:I think I'd rather have a 12 ppg type if he could play defense and play within the offense rather than 19 points, zero defense and iso ball. Sure you've gotta have an iso player but ant isn't the guy we want in critical sets

I get that logic, but we do have a lot of defenders on this team which is why this season turned around in late January once the team started to click. We do lack offense. Too many wings with good defense and lousy offense like Thybulle and Murray. Murray's going to be out of the league in the near future because his offense just stinks. If he could develop a good 3-point shot, he may save his future. It's why Luke Babbitt (career 40% 3-point shooter) was in the league for 8 years. I doubt Murray is going to last more than 4 seasons because his defense is not nearly the defense (not yet at this moment) we get from Deni, Camara and Thybulle.

Ant is valuable to keep in the future if he's willing to be a 6th man where he can a Jamal Crawford like player. One thing Ant does is create spacing that helps someone like Sharpe and Deni have more spacing out there on the offensive end which is beneficial. But as a starting PG, Ant's gotta go if he's not willing to be moved to the bench. Because player's expectations change once they're moved and he would likely accept a move to the bench on another team.

As for Scoot, he's shooting is better which is awesome. But he's still very wreck less out there more than he should. Still a disappointment overall.
April 4, 2014:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:I never said Dallas was good as Portland


Earlier on December 8, 2013:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:That's the Whole Point Portland is No better than Dallas
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#39 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Mar 26, 2025 1:28 am

As for Scoot, he's shooting is better which is awesome. But he's still very wreck less out there more than he should. Still a disappointment overall.


I am not holding my breath but he has gone from 'potentially bounces around after his rookie contract' to 'might become an average starting PG' in terms of what he has shown from year 1 to year 2 - which is actually a hell of an improvement IMO.

Many young PG's struggle early and it seems there is a theme of Y3 being the breakout - so I am holding a bit of hope that he can show 'bubble ASG level PG' potential next season.

Across the board though at least there is improvement - if he can simply improve on the same level next year your looking at -

PER - 9.5 < 12.5 < 15.5
TS% - .489 < .540 < .590
FTr - .256 < .301 < .346
TOV% - 19.3 > 18.9 > 18.4
ORTG - 97 < 107 < 117
DRTG - 120 > 117 > 114
WS/48 - -0.045 < +0.45 < +0.135

Now this clearly isnt science but basically if he takes a similar jump from Y2 to Y3 as he did Y1 to Y2 your looking at a guy that across the board is playing like an average starting PG - which isnt bad for someone who will be in their age 21 season (But also clearly isnt generational as some of the hype led us to believe).
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Re: Game 72: Portland vs Boston 3: 00pm Chargetv and KUNP 

Post#40 » by Wizenheimer » Wed Mar 26, 2025 3:29 pm

Shem wrote:
PDXKnight wrote:I think I'd rather have a 12 ppg type if he could play defense and play within the offense rather than 19 points, zero defense and iso ball. Sure you've gotta have an iso player but ant isn't the guy we want in critical sets

I get that logic, but we do have a lot of defenders on this team which is why this season turned around in late January once the team started to click. We do lack offense. Too many wings with good defense and lousy offense like Thybulle and Murray. Murray's going to be out of the league in the near future because his offense just stinks. If he could develop a good 3-point shot, he may save his future. It's why Luke Babbitt (career 40% 3-point shooter) was in the league for 8 years. I doubt Murray is going to last more than 4 seasons because his defense is not nearly the defense (not yet at this moment) we get from Deni, Camara and Thybulle.

Ant is valuable to keep in the future if he's willing to be a 6th man where he can a Jamal Crawford like player. One thing Ant does is create spacing that helps someone like Sharpe and Deni have more spacing out there on the offensive end which is beneficial. But as a starting PG, Ant's gotta go if he's not willing to be moved to the bench. Because player's expectations change once they're moved and he would likely accept a move to the bench on another team.

As for Scoot, he's shooting is better which is awesome. But he's still very wreck less out there more than he should. Still a disappointment overall.


with/without samples sizes can be tricky, but:

Blazers are 28-40 (.411)with Simons; and are 4-1 (.800) without him
Blazers are 16-24 (.400) with Ayton; and are 16-17 (.485) without him

on the other hand

Blazers 24-24(.500) with Grant; and 8-17 (.320) without him

now, I've seen the games and I'm pretty certain that the impact of Simons-Ayton-Grant has been worth a minimum of 10 wins that the Blazers wouldn't have without them, in those games. That doesn't mean Portland's record would be that much worse without those guys because we can't really know how the young Blazers would have responded as a team, on their own. Portland may have ended up with a similar record at this point. But we can't know that. We can infer that any wins those veterans have added have been damaging to Portland's lottery odds

Simons in particular has shot the Blazers into wins with some timely hot shooting. That's been easy to observe. What is not as easy to observe is how many losses his abysmal defense has propelled Portland too. We do know his career BPM is -1.1, and that matches the assertion he's a net negative

why does Grant's w/wo look so much different than Simons & Ayton? I'm not sure, It could just be artifacts of schedule and and who else played, or didn't play. It could be that a forward rotation of Avdija-Camara-Grant is much better than a guard rotation of Simons-Sharpe-Scoot or a C rotation of Ayton/Clingan (which is two drop-coverage C's with poor perimeter skills)

bottom line is I believe all the chatter about how the Blazers would miss Simons or Ayton are unfounded. What Portland would lose would be more than offset by gains in other aspects on the floor

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