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Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104

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Sweater Vest No. 35

Poll ended at Thu Mar 27, 2025 2:35 am

Paolo Banchero: 32 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST, 1 STL, 13-24 FG, 2-8 3PT, 4-6 FT, +1 in 36 minutes
18
56%
Franz Wagner: 26 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST, 8-22 FG, 1-6 3PT, 9-10 FT, +2 in 35 minutes
0
No votes
Anthony Black: 20 PTS, 5 REB, 1 STL, 2 BLK, 8-18 FG, 2-8 3PT, 2-2 FT, +17 (team best) in 30 minutes
14
44%
Caleb Houstan: 12 PTS, 4-7 FG, 4-6 3PT, +10 in 23 minutes
0
No votes
Gary Harris: 6 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST, 2 STL, 2-4 FG, 2-4 3PT, +8 in 29 minutes
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 32

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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#41 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Wed Mar 26, 2025 5:15 pm

VFX wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:
VFX wrote:
This is what I was thinking during the game.

He isn’t a point guard. He’s a shooting guard in this system. Not sure how I square that with Jalen Suggs getting paid and being instrumental to the defense.

They also just paid KCP, so it makes even less sense and they have even less incentive to move Suggs back to where he was playing at a high level last season.

It’s good that AB isn’t a bust. Not sure what to make of the current and future rotation based on this information though. Do I trust the FO to do the correct thing and acquire a starting level point guard knowing this? Not a chance. Cole and Suggs getting healthy means what for Black? Oh and it also means Jett Howard is gone.


We agree on the principle of needing a PG. Otherwise. So?

Cojo was never really known for assists but he seems to have more of a PG impact then "Fultz" (waits for the mob) ever did.

To an extent Paolo + Franz need a PG enough to loosen the valve and open things up. Get everyone in a favorable position to get rhythm rather then it just being the Paolo / Franz ISO show the entire game.

For the last time. I personally have backed off the idea of Black being a PG from "sure thing" to "I don't know." This wasn't the game where I realized it. I have been this way for a bit.

The only PG on the roster as far as I can tell is Cojo and because he seems to set the table well enough for us to get into a rhythm I am not backing off that he overstates the point you are trying to make. Which is agreeable.

I'm gonna defend the AB flowers though. Only reasonable counter point is Paolo is playing out of his mind so he should get it. Ok fair.


I've always been an AB proponent for the simple fact that the 2023 draft cannot be a complete bust otherwise Orlando is screwed. I never believed in Jett Howard fwiw, so he wasn't really part of the equation.

I hoped that AB would be a pick against the grain of popular wisdom in stating that 6'6+ lanky prospects usually don't pan out favorably as point guards. I appeared to be incorrect. Well it appears we have Suggs 2.0 where he lands as more of a 2 guard into a system where he isn't directly tasked with getting players into better scoring situations. That's fine. I'll take the added asset value, on court production, and depth.

I don't believe Weltman is capable of making tough decisions. That's unfortunate for Anthony Black. Because at this juncture Weltman has to weigh all the data we have on AB, last two games included, and actually make decisions regarding the future of Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, KCP, AB, and two draft picks keeping in mind the offense is sporadic at best.

The path of least resistance says Cole is gone, Suggs remains at point guard, and AB is off the bench behind KCP until he is moved (unlikely) or expires (likelier). Maybe they use a pick on a backup guard assuming Gary isn't also gone.

I don't like that path even though I know thats what Weltman will go with. Why? Because it doesn't address anything and it doesn't put these guys in the best opportunities to succeed. Suggs is the de-facto "point guard" in name only because it happens to work on paper and allows Weltman to pretend his point forward experiment was a success until he's fired.


If we can get this AB more consistently then I'm 100% shipping out KCP if possible. Between a healthy Suggs & AB that should give you all you need from the 2 spot.

If they do nothing they'll be kicking the can down the road and continuing to ignore the red flag that's been waived. The last 2 years and 1 verbal call out by Paolo with another one probably coming after the end of this season. I will say it does sound like he knows he can't just continue to sit here and do nothing and at some point has to cash in his weltman bucks for actual players who will help.
A scoring guard.. never heard of one. :roll:
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#42 » by Skybox » Wed Mar 26, 2025 5:38 pm

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
VFX wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:
We agree on the principle of needing a PG. Otherwise. So?

Cojo was never really known for assists but he seems to have more of a PG impact then "Fultz" (waits for the mob) ever did.

To an extent Paolo + Franz need a PG enough to loosen the valve and open things up. Get everyone in a favorable position to get rhythm rather then it just being the Paolo / Franz ISO show the entire game.

For the last time. I personally have backed off the idea of Black being a PG from "sure thing" to "I don't know." This wasn't the game where I realized it. I have been this way for a bit.

The only PG on the roster as far as I can tell is Cojo and because he seems to set the table well enough for us to get into a rhythm I am not backing off that he overstates the point you are trying to make. Which is agreeable.

I'm gonna defend the AB flowers though. Only reasonable counter point is Paolo is playing out of his mind so he should get it. Ok fair.


I've always been an AB proponent for the simple fact that the 2023 draft cannot be a complete bust otherwise Orlando is screwed. I never believed in Jett Howard fwiw, so he wasn't really part of the equation.

I hoped that AB would be a pick against the grain of popular wisdom in stating that 6'6+ lanky prospects usually don't pan out favorably as point guards. I appeared to be incorrect. Well it appears we have Suggs 2.0 where he lands as more of a 2 guard into a system where he isn't directly tasked with getting players into better scoring situations. That's fine. I'll take the added asset value, on court production, and depth.

I don't believe Weltman is capable of making tough decisions. That's unfortunate for Anthony Black. Because at this juncture Weltman has to weigh all the data we have on AB, last two games included, and actually make decisions regarding the future of Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, KCP, AB, and two draft picks keeping in mind the offense is sporadic at best.

The path of least resistance says Cole is gone, Suggs remains at point guard, and AB is off the bench behind KCP until he is moved (unlikely) or expires (likelier). Maybe they use a pick on a backup guard assuming Gary isn't also gone.

I don't like that path even though I know thats what Weltman will go with. Why? Because it doesn't address anything and it doesn't put these guys in the best opportunities to succeed. Suggs is the de-facto "point guard" in name only because it happens to work on paper and allows Weltman to pretend his point forward experiment was a success until he's fired.


If we can get this AB more consistently then I'm 100% shipping out KCP if possible. Between a healthy Suggs & AB that should give you all you need from the 2 spot.

If they do nothing they'll be kicking the can down the road and continuing to ignore the red flag that's been waived. The last 2 years and 1 verbal call out by Paolo with another one probably coming after the end of this season. I will say it does sound like he knows he can't just continue to sit here and do nothing and at some point has to cash in his weltman bucks for actual players who will help.


KCP is making his shots as of late...fans of other teams have been very dismissive of his value this season and I get it. But he's still a very formidable player and he's done everything but shoot well. He doesn't miss games, he doesn't take breaks, his defense is still elite, imo. I just don't like his fit in ORL- which is exacerbated by his too-high salary. Any contending team would benefit from adding him, if they can make the $$$ work. I feel exactly as you do about him vs AB. I'd love to see KCP moved due to his contract and his redundancy - not because he's not a good player or any abstract feelings about his effort, personality, etc. Any team is better having him than not - but with Paolo's looming extension, ORL just can't be careless with overspending on less than vital personnel.

Lakers could use him, Bucks, LAC, HOU, GSW, really any good team with a playmaking/scoring Lead Guard...I like him and WCJ (or even Goga) to LAL for Reaves + filler.
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#43 » by Bensational » Wed Mar 26, 2025 11:10 pm

Skybox wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:
Skybox wrote:
He deserves recognition...but he clearly wasn't THE most important contributor. Great night for AB is less than a bad night for Paolo & Franz...being the X factor doesn't make you the team MVP...it makes you a pleasant surprise.


Skybox, this is sweater vests, not team MVP voting.

Besides, let the kid have it. Will make your trade machine go bbrr with all the additional trade options Black playing good opens up.

"Justification" Black 3rd in vest points. :wink:


Thanks for explaining...now go read the other thread that I'm referring to where there is a discussion as to the value of Sweater Vest votes vs. other analytics. eyriq makes a pretty good case until he blows it up with his own vote. AB was great - but HIS "great" isn't that great. Certainly not the #1 guy that carried the team to victory - which is the point if you're going to try to use it as something meaningful for analysis/comparison.

I'm not hating AB or Sweater vest voting...it SHOULD be for fun - but don't try to make it more analytically meaningful than it is


I wouldn’t place great stock in sweater vests as an analytical tool, but there is value in crowd knowledge. Check out this podcast by Planet Money about how accurate the average of a crowd of people guessing the weight of a cow was.

In this case of sweater vest points, everyone has their own personal criteria for evaluation and the result is the average of that. For me it’s not about who was the guy to carry the team, but the guy who played the highest above their average.

Paolo and Franz set high bars for themselves by averaging 25.7 and 24.4ppg respectively. So Paolo’s 32 points is +6.3 above his average and Franz’s 26 is +1.6.

AB averages 9.3ppg and scored 20 (+10.7). Houstan averages 3.5 and scored 12 (+8.5). Harris averages 2.9 and scored 6 (+3.1) but added 5 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 steals all of which were timely and needed.

So to me, whilst we got above average and very good games from Paolo and Franz, the X factors were the bench guys stepping up and giving way more than they usually would. Considering how much they’re criticised for failing to do so, it’s worth rewarding them when they do.

Like in the podcast I reference above, if my opinion is an outlier, the average is still likely to correct for that and reveal something closer to agreed reality.
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#44 » by Skybox » Thu Mar 27, 2025 12:35 am

Bensational wrote:
Skybox wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:
Skybox, this is sweater vests, not team MVP voting.

Besides, let the kid have it. Will make your trade machine go bbrr with all the additional trade options Black playing good opens up.

"Justification" Black 3rd in vest points. :wink:


Thanks for explaining...now go read the other thread that I'm referring to where there is a discussion as to the value of Sweater Vest votes vs. other analytics. eyriq makes a pretty good case until he blows it up with his own vote. AB was great - but HIS "great" isn't that great. Certainly not the #1 guy that carried the team to victory - which is the point if you're going to try to use it as something meaningful for analysis/comparison.

I'm not hating AB or Sweater vest voting...it SHOULD be for fun - but don't try to make it more analytically meaningful than it is


I wouldn’t place great stock in sweater vests as an analytical tool, but there is value in crowd knowledge. Check out this podcast by Planet Money about how accurate the average of a crowd of people guessing the weight of a cow was.

In this case of sweater vest points, everyone has their own personal criteria for evaluation and the result is the average of that. For me it’s not about who was the guy to carry the team, but the guy who played the highest above their average.

Paolo and Franz set high bars for themselves by averaging 25.7 and 24.4ppg respectively. So Paolo’s 32 points is +6.3 above his average and Franz’s 26 is +1.6.

AB averages 9.3ppg and scored 20 (+10.7). Houstan averages 3.5 and scored 12 (+8.5). Harris averages 2.9 and scored 6 (+3.1) but added 5 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 steals all of which were timely and needed.

So to me, whilst we got above average and very good games from Paolo and Franz, the X factors were the bench guys stepping up and giving way more than they usually would. Considering how much they’re criticised for failing to do so, it’s worth rewarding them when they do.

Like in the podcast I reference above, if my opinion is an outlier, the average is still likely to correct for that and reveal something closer to agreed reality.


Might be too small a sample size to stomp on eyriq's agenda :lol: Everytime AB has a nice game with 10pts, he gets a lollipop and suddenly his "SW Rating" is higher than Paolo's and eyriq thinks there's some sense of reality to it. Getting bored with Paolo's unstoppable relentless driving of this team leads to minute dissection of his efficiency while lesser guys get stickers just for putting their shoes on the right feet...Sweater Vest is fun, but only fun. KInd of like how Jordan should get the MVP every year he played - but that's boring to discuss. I prefer your definition above
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#45 » by drsd » Thu Mar 27, 2025 7:46 am

Skybox wrote:KCP is making his shots as of late....


My inner Homer wonders if the team is gelling at just the right time. Joseph is never TOing, Caldwell-Pope is getting 9ppg on 6 shots, Carter is rebounding like a beast, Black and Houstan are giving critical bench scoring, and the dynamic duo go for 60 ever game.

I am starting to believe that the Magic can be competitive in a round-1 series against likely Boston, or Cleveland.

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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#46 » by RichCollab » Thu Mar 27, 2025 11:35 am

Skybox wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
VFX wrote:
I've always been an AB proponent for the simple fact that the 2023 draft cannot be a complete bust otherwise Orlando is screwed. I never believed in Jett Howard fwiw, so he wasn't really part of the equation.

I hoped that AB would be a pick against the grain of popular wisdom in stating that 6'6+ lanky prospects usually don't pan out favorably as point guards. I appeared to be incorrect. Well it appears we have Suggs 2.0 where he lands as more of a 2 guard into a system where he isn't directly tasked with getting players into better scoring situations. That's fine. I'll take the added asset value, on court production, and depth.

I don't believe Weltman is capable of making tough decisions. That's unfortunate for Anthony Black. Because at this juncture Weltman has to weigh all the data we have on AB, last two games included, and actually make decisions regarding the future of Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, KCP, AB, and two draft picks keeping in mind the offense is sporadic at best.

The path of least resistance says Cole is gone, Suggs remains at point guard, and AB is off the bench behind KCP until he is moved (unlikely) or expires (likelier). Maybe they use a pick on a backup guard assuming Gary isn't also gone.

I don't like that path even though I know thats what Weltman will go with. Why? Because it doesn't address anything and it doesn't put these guys in the best opportunities to succeed. Suggs is the de-facto "point guard" in name only because it happens to work on paper and allows Weltman to pretend his point forward experiment was a success until he's fired.


If we can get this AB more consistently then I'm 100% shipping out KCP if possible. Between a healthy Suggs & AB that should give you all you need from the 2 spot.

If they do nothing they'll be kicking the can down the road and continuing to ignore the red flag that's been waived. The last 2 years and 1 verbal call out by Paolo with another one probably coming after the end of this season. I will say it does sound like he knows he can't just continue to sit here and do nothing and at some point has to cash in his weltman bucks for actual players who will help.


KCP is making his shots as of late...fans of other teams have been very dismissive of his value this season and I get it. But he's still a very formidable player and he's done everything but shoot well. He doesn't miss games, he doesn't take breaks, his defense is still elite, imo. I just don't like his fit in ORL- which is exacerbated by his too-high salary. Any contending team would benefit from adding him, if they can make the $$$ work. I feel exactly as you do about him vs AB. I'd love to see KCP moved due to his contract and his redundancy - not because he's not a good player or any abstract feelings about his effort, personality, etc. Any team is better having him than not - but with Paolo's looming extension, ORL just can't be careless with overspending on less than vital personnel.

Lakers could use him, Bucks, LAC, HOU, GSW, really any good team with a playmaking/scoring Lead Guard...I like him and WCJ (or even Goga) to LAL for Reaves + filler.


KCP in his proper role and spots shoots fine. We still need his shooting.

Corey from my perspective has shown we don’t need a PG to dominate the ball. We need one to keep the flow and settle things down.
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#47 » by Knightro » Thu Mar 27, 2025 2:03 pm

Vest No. 35 Results
Vest - Paolo Banchero
Cummerbund - Anthony Black
Mittens - Franz Wagner

Franz got 3 second place votes and 5 third place votes.

Harris got 0 second place votes and 7 third place votes.
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#48 » by Knightro » Thu Mar 27, 2025 2:14 pm

2024-2025 Season Standings (3-2-1 scale)
Franz Wagner - 56
Paolo Banchero - 31
Anthony Black - 22
Cole Anthony - 17
Goga Bitadze - 14
Jonathan Isaac - 12
Jalen Suggs - 11
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 10
Tristan da Silva - 8
Wendell Carter Jr. - 8
Moritz Wagner - 7
Trevelin Queen - 4
Gary Harris - 2
Cory Joseph - 2

Vests
Franz Wagner - 17 (v. BKN, v. NOP, v. WAS, v. CHA, v. IND, v. PHL, at PHX, at LAL, v. DET, at CHA, at BKN, at PHL, v. DET, at SAC, v. SAS, v. WAS, v. LAL)
Paolo Banchero - 6 (at MIA, v. IND, at ATL, at NOP, at WAS, at CHA)
Cole Anthony - 3 (v. MIA, at NYK, at MIL)
Tristan da Silva - 2 (v. BKN, at TOR)
Anthony Black - 2 (v. CHA, at CLE)
Jalen Suggs - 1 (v. CHI)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 1 (at BKN)
Goga Bitadze - 1 (v. PHX)
Trevelin Queen - 1 (v. BOS)
Jonathan Isaac - 1 (v. PHL)

Cummerbunds
Paolo Banchero - 6 (v. PHL, v. DET, at SAC, v. CHA, at MIL, v. LAL)
Anthony Black - 5 (v. NOP, at PHX, v. SAS, v. WAS, at CHA)
Jalen Suggs - 4 (v. IND, v. CHA, at LAL, v. PHX)
Jonathan Isaac - 3 (v. IND, v. PHL, at PHL)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 3 (v. CHI, at BKN, v. MIA)
Goga Bitadze - 3 (v. WAS, at BKN, v. BKN)
Wendell Carter Jr. - 3 (at NYK, at CLE, at WAS)
Moritz Wagner - 2 (v. BKN, v. DET)
Cole Anthony - 2 (at CHA, at TOR)
Franz Wagner - 2 (at ATL, at NOP)
Gary Harris - 1 (at MIA)
Tristan da Silva - 1 (v. BOS)

Mittens
Anthony Black - 6 (v. BKN, v. IND, v. WAS, v. IND, at SAC, v. LAL)
Jonathan Isaac - 5 (v. DET, at CHA, at NYK, v. DET, v. SAS)
Goga Bitadze - 5 (v. NOP, at PHX, v. CHI, at BKN, v. WAS)
Cole Anthony - 4 (v. PHX, v. BKN, v. PHL, at ATL)
Franz Wagner - 4 (at MIA, at BKN, at MIL, at CHA)
Moritz Wagner - 3 (v. CHA, v. PHL, at LAL)
Wendell Carter Jr. - 2 (v. BOS, v. CHA)
Cory Joseph - 2 (at NOP, at WAS)
Jalen Suggs - 1 (at PHL)
Trevelin Queen - 1 (v. MIA)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 1 (at TOR)
Paolo Banchero - 1 (at CLE)
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#49 » by Knightro » Thu Mar 27, 2025 2:15 pm

Gary got screwed. But the voting is the voting.
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Re: Sweater Vest Thread #35: Magic 111 - Hornets 104 

Post#50 » by eyriq » Thu Mar 27, 2025 2:26 pm

Good to see the magical three leading us to dubs

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