Question for the "Draft Lottery is Rigged" Crowd

[VFX]

Whether you believe the draft is rigged or not, there was some chicanery going on with the Cavs winning the number 1 pick 3 times in 4 years after Lebron left. The the New Orleans Hornets not having an owner then winning the Anthony Davis lottery was fishy. Not to mention the picture of him in the Hornets hat earlier in the day.

The Bulls jumping from 9th best odds to number 1 to draft the hometown kid in 2008, the Cavs winning the lottery in 2003 to draft the hometown kid. NBA does a great job creating stories.

Why would the NBA care about helping Cleveland but not helping NYC?

Whats the storyline with Lebron going to NYC instead of Cleveland where hes from?

Why would Rose go to NYC instead of Chicago where he is from?

Carmelo ended up playing for New York directly in his prime.

[TravisScott55]

Whether you believe the draft is rigged or not, there was some chicanery going on with the Cavs winning the number 1 pick 3 times in 4 years after Lebron left. The the New Orleans Hornets not having an owner then winning the Anthony Davis lottery was fishy. Not to mention the picture of him in the Hornets hat earlier in the day.

The Bulls jumping from 9th best odds to number 1 to draft the hometown kid in 2008, the Cavs winning the lottery in 2003 to draft the hometown kid. NBA does a great job creating stories.

Why would the NBA care about helping Cleveland but not helping NYC?

Like I said, I am not saying the lottery is rigged, I am saying that was very convenient.

But to answer your question, maybe because Knicks are going to make money regardless if the team is good or not, small market teams need the team to be good to be profitable.

[shi-woo]

Why did the biggest market in the NBA suck for 2 decades? Can any of the conspiracy theorists answer that one?

Yup. I always have 2 questions for "NBA is rigged" crowd.
1. Why did the NBA allow NYC's team to suck for decades?
2. Why did the NBA hand 3 can't miss HOFers to the San Antonio Spurs who have 0 national profile?

This is an absolute joke, and both are easily refutable.

1. The NBA HAS tried to make NY teams relevant, they just can't put the pieces to the puzzle together like LA BOS and MIA. Since I started watching Basketball in the early 2000's NY teams have had:

- MVP level Kidd, Top 10 player in the league, get traded to the Nets for Stephon. He was later joined by ANBA Vince Carter a few years later. NY repd the East in the finals 3 out of 5 years since MJ retired

- Melo, an MVP candidate and Top 10 player in the league, forced his way to NY a year after Amare, the best PF in the game at that point signed in NY. Injuries aside and Knicks got a Top 5 PF, C, and SF to join their team in consecutive years.

- Derron, the 2nd best PG in the game people said at the time, gets traded to Nets, shortly after Joe Johnson and KG and Pierce get traded there too.

- Kyrie signs with BRK, and KD and Harden force trades to BRK.

- Brunson signs for pennies, and they get traded Towns for pennies on the dollar.

The NBA has clearly, 100% tried to make the NY teams viable. Injuries and other circumstances have just clearly taken control of the narrative. Deron and Amare breaking down ruined that era. The pandemic ruined the Nets. Kidd made it to 2 finals...You are clearly off in that assessment.

2. Because sometimes players can be so good that they buck the trend, and it creates new markets and new history. Robinson and Duncan were the perfect rivals to the powerhouses of the West. TD was just so good that he created a stable organization, and was able to win rings and create another small market team narrative worth pushing. Can't have every title going to LA/BOS/MIA. GS and Steph are another example of this, where a player and team are so good that they buck the trend, and create a story that the NBA is glad to have going. Jokic had his shot at this but injuries have stolen that from us. These teams/players create natural storylines that are easier to maintain by the league. They are the feel good stories if you will. We root for these teams because they are the underdogs typically, and the rivals of their big market rivals. ORL and CLE seem to be the East version of these teams, but outside of LBJ, they haven't been able to create that winning culture for more than a few years with the guys they've had.

Rest assured though, if the Shaq/Kobe thing wasn't happening, and the superteam era wasn't a thing, neither Steph or Duncan would have remained in those spots past their 2th birthdays

[sp6r=underrated]

Whats the storyline with Lebron going to NYC instead of Cleveland where hes from?

Metro NYC has 20 million People. The entire state of Ohio has 12 million people. The state GDP of Ohio is 800 billion. NYC Metro is 2.2 trillion.

There is no financial reason to prefer Lebron play in Cleveland over NYC.

[shi-woo]

Spoiler:

Every can't miss, this guy is 100% going to be a HoF talent, somehow spends their prime playing for one of the best teams/markets.

Nothing anyone can say will change my thinking

This is the subtext for a lot of "it is fixed" folks. They are very low in social trust.

3 examples, and all went to the same team. That's why they do it, so people like you can post a picture of Tim Duncan and say this one player disproves decades worth of lopsided transactions.

Do you want me to post pictures of all the lopsided trades that sent stars to large markets, and all the stars that signed with large markets? It's a lot longer than just two people unfortunately...Just the turn of the century we have Shaq, Kobe, Paul, Howard, Luka, Gasol, LeBron, and AD. All Top 10 players in the league, all made it to LA by dubious means.

Do you trust trillion dollar globalist corporations and their billionaires patrons?

[VFX]

Whats the storyline with Lebron going to NYC instead of Cleveland where hes from?

Metro NYC has 20 million People. The entire state of Ohio has 12 million people. The state GDP of Ohio is 800 billion. NYC Metro is 2.2 trillion.

There is no financial reason to prefer Lebron play in Cleveland over NYC.

I guarantee I could go through a list of players in the last 10 years that have gone through NY or Brooklyn that would never land in a place like Orlando or Detroit randomly at the peak of their careers.

The draft doesnt need to be rigged 100% of the time. Just like specific trades that end with generational talent landing in huge markets dont normally apply to the smaller ones.

[sp6r=underrated]

Why did the biggest market in the NBA suck for 2 decades? Can any of the conspiracy theorists answer that one?

Yup. I always have 2 questions for "NBA is rigged" crowd.
1. Why did the NBA allow NYC's team to suck for decades?
2. Why did the NBA hand 3 can't miss HOFers to the San Antonio Spurs who have 0 national profile?

This is an absolute joke, and both are easily refutable.

1. The NBA HAS tried to make NY teams relevant, they just can't put the pieces to the puzzle together like LA BOS and MIA. Since I started watching Basketball in the early 2000's NY teams have had:

- MVP level Kidd, Top 10 player in the league, get traded to the Nets for Stephon. He was later joined by ANBA Vince Carter a few years later. NY repd the East in the finals 3 out of 5 years since MJ retired

- Melo, an MVP candidate and Top 10 player in the league, forced his way to NY a year after Amare, the best PF in the game at that point signed in NY. Injuries aside and Knicks got a Top 5 PF, C, and SF to join their team in consecutive years.

- Derron, the 2nd best PG in the game people said at the time, gets traded to Nets, shortly after Joe Johnson and KG and Pierce get traded there too.

- Kyrie signs with BRK, and KD and Harden force trades to BRK.

- Brunson signs for pennies, and they get traded Towns for pennies on the dollar.

The NBA has clearly, 100% tried to make the NY teams viable. Injuries and other circumstances have just clearly taken control of the narrative. Deron and Amare breaking down ruined that era. The pandemic ruined the Nets. Kidd made it to 2 finals...You are clearly off in that assessment.

2. Because sometimes players can be so good that they buck the trend, and it creates new markets and new history. Robinson and Duncan were the perfect rivals to the powerhouses of the West. TD was just so good that he created a stable organization, and was able to win rings and create another small market team narrative worth pushing. Can't have every title going to LA/BOS/MIA. GS and Steph are another example of this, where a player and team are so good that they buck the trend, and create a story that the NBA is glad to have going. Jokic had his shot at this but injuries have stolen that from us. These teams/players create natural storylines that are easier to maintain by the league. They are the feel good stories if you will. We root for these teams because they are the underdogs typically, and the rivals of their big market rivals. ORL and CLE seem to be the East version of these teams, but outside of LBJ, they haven't been able to create that winning culture for more than a few years with the guys they've had.

Rest assured though, if the Shaq/Kobe thing wasn't happening, and the superteam era wasn't a thing, neither Steph or Duncan would have remained in those spots past their 2th birthdays

What would it take for you to believe that the NBA isn't fixed?

[aliasxn]

If it were rigged, they wouldn't have sent Wemby to the Spurs, LeBron to the Cavs, Zion to the Pelicans, Greg Oden to the Blazers *and* KD to the Sonics in the same draft, etc.

Almost every big-name rookie over the past 25 years has landed with a small or mid-market franchise.

[ChumboChappati]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

Draft Lottery is not usually rigged. It has been rigged only in some specific cases when it makes sense.

[Billl]

There is 0% chance that 29 separate billionaires would all agree to league rigging the lottery to send the #1 prospect and potentially a billion dollars of revenue over the next 15 years to a different owner. These guys didn't get to be billionaires by giving money away.

[GiannisAnte34]

Rigging it occasionally makes far more sense to maintain the image of authenticity. If they constantly rigged it in favor of the greatest bottom line, it would become too blatant. The NFL doesn’t seem to mind when it comes to getting Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl lately tho

[The Servant]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

I wouldnt say the draft is necessarily "rigged".

HOWEVER, Dallas sits at a 1.3% chance to win the #1 pick.

After the whole Doncic debacle, and their GM choosing specifically LA as the team to send him, I would 100% believe it was rigged should they magically land Cooper Flagg.

This is similar to New Orleans trading away Anthony Davis and then them winning the Zion Williamson lottery with 6% chance.

The better question is how much happenstance has to take place for non-believers to buy into the idea that it is absolutely rigged.

40 win Bulls get home town D Rose with a 1% chance. Zion to Pels after AD to LA. Kyrie, Wiggins, Bennett 3x #1s for the Cavs after Bron leaves. Phoenix gets the #1 for Arizona alum Ayton (he's just a bust). I'm sure there are others I'm missing.

People call it mental illness, many people call it pattern recognition which is a basic human trait. Some people just think hmm, these are interesting coincidences.

[ChiTownHero1992]

Have the fans draw it and literally show every moment televised. That way there couldn't be the "icy envelope theory" or behind the scenes "rigging", etc. When you get too many big wig, rich people in a room something is not going to be 100% legitimate

[slick_watts]

There is 0% chance that 29 separate billionaires would all agree to league rigging the lottery to send the #1 prospect and potentially a billion dollars of revenue over the next 15 years to a different owner. These guys didn't get to be billionaires by giving money away.

this is crux of it. to go further, the owners don't all have the same goals. some of them care more about winning than making money. steve ballmer has different goals as a basketball owner than robert sarver did. or donald sterling. aligning all of these in a way that gets them ALL on board with any sort of organized fixing of any results (and remain on board AFTER they are owners) is inconceivable. but with enough circumstantial evidence you can sustain a conspiracy theory indefinitely because those susceptible to believing in them are not persuadable once succumbed.

[xdrta+]

What would it take for you to believe that the NBA isn't fixed?

The burden of evidence is on the one making the claim.

[VFX]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

I wouldnt say the draft is necessarily "rigged".

HOWEVER, Dallas sits at a 1.3% chance to win the #1 pick.

After the whole Doncic debacle, and their GM choosing specifically LA as the team to send him, I would 100% believe it was rigged should they magically land Cooper Flagg.

This is similar to New Orleans trading away Anthony Davis and then them winning the Zion Williamson lottery with 6% chance.

The better question is how much happenstance has to take place for non-believers to buy into the idea that it is absolutely rigged.

40 win Bulls get home town D Rose with a 1% chance. Zion to Pels after AD to LA. Kyrie, Wiggins, Bennett 3x #1s for the Cavs after Bron leaves. Phoenix gets the #1 for Arizona alum Ayton (he's just a bust). I'm sure there are others I'm missing.

People call it mental illness, many people call it pattern recognition which is a basic human trait. Some people just think hmm, these are interesting coincidences.

These are all good examples.

Fwiw I dont believe the lottery is 100% rigged all the time.

I think the league definitely has influences over very specific player movement though whether that be the lotto 10 - 20% of the time or with outside deals. I refuse to believe the Doncic situation was just 1 dumb GM picking 1 specific market for example.

The NBA is a multi billion dollar business that is not above pulling crap for better ratings and storylines. People are naive to believe everything is 100% fair and square 100% of the time with zero outside influences. There is too much money involved spanning multiple markets outside of directly the NBA as a product.

[sp6r=underrated]

If it were rigged, they wouldn't have sent Wemby to the Spurs, LeBron to the Cavs, Zion to the Pelicans, Greg Oden to the Blazers *and* KD to the Sonics in the same draft, etc.

Almost every big-name rookie over the past 25 years has landed with a small or mid-market franchise.

Correct. The amazing thing is they take guys like Lebron starting in Cleveland as evidence the NBA is fixed. And that is why this is unfalsifiable belief. The conspiracy theorists are able to interpret any outcome as a sign the league is fixed. One of the conspiracy theorists cited the Spurs landing Robinson, Duncan and Wemby as evidence for a conspiracy. If you're trying to make money, putting HOFers in San Antonio isn't logical. No offense to people who live there.

Lakers sign Lebron = NBA fixing things for big markets
Pelicans get # 1 Pick = NBA fixing things for a tiny market to keep a franchise viable
Spurs have amazing record for 3 decades = NBA fixing things to fool fans into believing the NBA isn't rigged.

No matter the outcome the conspiracy theorists will cite it as evidence for the conspiracy.

The Lakers are the elephant in the room so I'll address them.

The Lakers do have outsized success and it is partly tied to LA. But there is no conspiracy. Players want to play in Los Angles because it is wealthy, super large market. That isn't due to a conspiracy of the owners or players. Just reality. Some of the happiest years of my life were spent in Minneapolis and I have deep love for the city in my heart. But the vast majority of multi-millionaires are going to prefer LA to Minneapolis. Unlike the Knicks, Nets and Clippers the Lakers had generally had good management for decades (70s -00s) which built up the quality of the brand. When management quality dipped in the 10s and the team got real bad.

That changed when Lebron signed there. Which is more likely:
1. Lebron finished his career in LA because he wanted the professional opportunities LA offered and felt it offered a better QOL for a global celebrity.
2. Lebron finished his career in LA because a conspiracy pushed him into signing with LA.


I think it is #1. And #1 helps explain Anthony Davis. Davis got traded to LA because he was approaching free agency and made very clear he would only sign a contract with the Lakers. So the Pelicans traded him to LA.

Good management + desirable market = success. Sometimes if the market is desirable enough you don't even need good management. That isn't fair but life isn't fair.

There isn't any conspiracy. And there isn't any solution (if you regard this as a problem) beyond abolishing free agency.

[Mavrelous]

Wherever there is secrecy where it's not needed, it's naive to assume there is no intereference, OTOH, Silver represents the owners, and hired by them, it's not like he's doing something that screws them over collectively, of anything is done, it is for what is perceived to be for the benifit of the league.

[sp6r=underrated]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

I wouldnt say the draft is necessarily "rigged".

HOWEVER, Dallas sits at a 1.3% chance to win the #1 pick.

After the whole Doncic debacle, and their GM choosing specifically LA as the team to send him, I would 100% believe it was rigged should they magically land Cooper Flagg.

This is similar to New Orleans trading away Anthony Davis and then them winning the Zion Williamson lottery with 6% chance.

The better question is how much happenstance has to take place for non-believers to buy into the idea that it is absolutely rigged.

40 win Bulls get home town D Rose with a 1% chance. Zion to Pels after AD to LA. Kyrie, Wiggins, Bennett 3x #1s for the Cavs after Bron leaves. Phoenix gets the #1 for Arizona alum Ayton (he's just a bust). I'm sure there are others I'm missing.

People call it mental illness, many people call it pattern recognition which is a basic human trait. Some people just think hmm, these are interesting coincidences.

Since 2009, OKC ranks 4th in RS winning % behind SA, Boston and Denver. Why would the NBA want these cities to be the most successful teams in the RS over NYC, Chicago and LA?

[Mrakar]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

I wouldnt say the draft is necessarily "rigged".

HOWEVER, Dallas sits at a 1.3% chance to win the #1 pick.

After the whole Doncic debacle, and their GM choosing specifically LA as the team to send him, I would 100% believe it was rigged should they magically land Cooper Flagg.

This is similar to New Orleans trading away Anthony Davis and then them winning the Zion Williamson lottery with 6% chance.

The better question is how much happenstance has to take place for non-believers to buy into the idea that it is absolutely rigged.

Or getting AD after getting **** in CP3 trade. Cleveland getting 2 first rounders after Lebron left. I was also saying all the time that Wemby will land with the Spurs, it just seemd like a logical thing to happen with Spurs being bad and international conection with Parker/Diaw,...

The next one will not be rigget bcs it will be too obvious, but some like the ones i mentioned or Ewing thing is just too obvious. We need a next storyline and then it will happen.