Question for the "Draft Lottery is Rigged" Crowd

[sp6r=underrated]

As long as the NBA is partnered with and promoting gambling, I refuse to believe games/outcomes aren't being rigged

I share your disgust with the gambling partnerships and the NBA. It is morally revolting and frankly you have to go back to sportsleagues partnerships with cigarette companies to find a more noxious partnership. But my disgust is primarily about creating and promoting gambling addiction not games being fixed (which I don't worry much about outside a rogue individual rather than a conspiracy).

It is clear you do think games are fixed. Why follow the NBA if it is rigged?

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

The league is driven and carried by stars and star player story lines. If you are so naieve as to think that the league wouldn't *OCCASIONALLY* say something along the lines of: "The Bulls have been irrelevant for 10 years and are the 5th biggest market.. We could just send D Rose the home town kid to Chicago on a 0.9% chance and have this franchise carry the league for 15 years like LeBron did in Cleveland...

And as the league grows and grows the billionaire owners investment valuation SKY ROCKETS. Everyone saying how could this ever happen!!!?!?!?!? Well, when the league does well so do ALL the owners. Their franchises went from 500m to 2b in 20 years.



The biggest thing that I don't get the anti conspiracy posters can hold in their head simultaneously while thinking the league is in no way rigged:

Superstar calls. They can accept that star players get rewarded with FTs when they have become a star, and that bench players or non star players dont get the calls. They never say "Why wouldn't the owners of all the teams without stars complain about this? How come they aren't mad that Mike Dunleavy Jr. isn't getting the same whistle as Harden?. And yet, we know this is the case. This happens because it's good for the league. The Pacers benefit from LBJ getting star calls. The Kings and the Bobcats also. Yet it's fact.

Since 2009, OKC ranks 4th in RS winning % behind SA, Boston and Denver. Why would the NBA want these cities to be the most successful teams in the RS over NYC, Chicago and LA?

OKC has never had the first pick, have they? They've just done an incredible job with drafting and trades.

Is your idea of the NBA rigging something telling OKC they aren't allowed to draft Jalen Williams at pick #12 and instead must draft Ochai Agbaji?

My point is essentially, no one is arguing the NBA rigs every little aspect of everything. Teams are still able to make moves that improve their team. Good management can still find ways to be successful, while bad management will still struggle.

[The Servant]

How do you guys square the idea of superstar calls though? This would in effect be *rigging*, would it not? If they aren't above rigging one aspect, why not occasionally others?

[sp6r=underrated]

How do you guys square the idea of superstar calls though? This would in effect be *rigging*, would it not? If they aren't above rigging one aspect, why not occasionally others?

1. I think most superstar call claims are BS. Superstars get called for less fouls on defense and get more free throws on offense for the same reason their plus/minus is positive not negative. They are good at basketball.
2. To the degree superstar calls do happen it is much more low-level employee (ref) intimidated by high-level employee (superstar player). The rigged draft theory which holds 30 companies, with an outside auditor, participate in a multi-decade conspiracy to manipulate outcomes. They are categorically different things. The later requires coordination, including again an independent auditor, and requires the ability to avoid detection of all the US's major media companies. The New York Times as an example would 100% report on a conspiracy to fix the lottery and would investigate if they had credible claims. They've never done so.

[BasketballAnon]

Since 2009, OKC ranks 4th in RS winning % behind SA, Boston and Denver. Why would the NBA want these cities to be the most successful teams in the RS over NYC, Chicago and LA?

OKC is a newer team and it's not in a traditional basketball market. Making the team be good there early in its existence would help build a larger fanbase than a crappy team would.

There's no concerns about places like NYC, Chicago and LA. Their populations are bigger and even though the Bulls and Knicks haven't been that great or a while, they still draw better than smaller market teams do.

If the above is correct, that it doesn't matter if NYC, LA or Chicago is good but it does matter if small market teams are good, then it argues the NBA would regularly fix things against the Lakers. After all it doesn't matter if they are good.

that's one of my two grievances with the conspiracy theorists:
1. No matter the outcome it can always be interpreted in favor of the conspiracy. Thus the belief is unfalsifiable.
2. There lack of explanation for why major news outlets like the New York Times, who regularly break major stories, haven't reported ever on a league wide game fixing/roster fixing conspiracy.

1 - Not everyone thinks like a hivemind and has the same opinion as the next person. You can think it is sometimes rigged, half the time rigged or all the time rigged. You can also come up with a million reasons why things did or didn't happen. I might agree with someone and say something is rigged but for a totally different reason. The only people who really know what happened are never going to talk about it and would be written off as vengeful people or loons if they suggested it, and probably wouldn't be believed no matter what by some people. You just have to keep in mind that you are addressing individual people and not 100 people together.

2- I do not find the mainstream media to be a reputable source for information. They are for-profit and sometimes for-government institutions. They lie at times, they have biases and sponsors, they make mistakes, they don't always report on everything (Porn sites are the most popular sites in the world yet porn gets 0 mainstream coverage) and sometimes they over report on certain subjects. I'm far more interested to hear what random people online think about touchy situations than them.

[sp6r=underrated]

OKC is a newer team and it's not in a traditional basketball market. Making the team be good there early in its existence would help build a larger fanbase than a crappy team would.

There's no concerns about places like NYC, Chicago and LA. Their populations are bigger and even though the Bulls and Knicks haven't been that great or a while, they still draw better than smaller market teams do.

If the above is correct, that it doesn't matter if NYC, LA or Chicago is good but it does matter if small market teams are good, then it argues the NBA would regularly fix things against the Lakers. After all it doesn't matter if they are good.

that's one of my two grievances with the conspiracy theorists:
1. No matter the outcome it can always be interpreted in favor of the conspiracy. Thus the belief is unfalsifiable.
2. There lack of explanation for why major news outlets like the New York Times, who regularly break major stories, haven't reported ever on a league wide game fixing/roster fixing conspiracy.

1 - Not everyone thinks like a hivemind and has the same opinion as the next person. You can think it is sometimes rigged, half the time rigged or all the time rigged. You can also come up with a million reasons why things did or didn't happen. I might agree with someone and say something is rigged but for a totally different. The only people who really know what happened are never going to talk about it and would be written off as vengeful people or loons if they suggested it, and probably wouldn't be believed no matter what by some people. But again, you are addressing a crowd when you should be addressing 100 different people.

2- I do not find the mainstream media to be a reputable source for information. They are for-profit and sometimes for-government institutions. They lie at times, they have biases and sponsors, they make mistakes, they don't always report on everything (Porn sites are the most popular sites in the world yet porn gets 0 mainstream coverage) and sometimes they over report on certain subjects. I'm far more interested to hear what random people online think about touchy situations than them.

It seems like your belief is unfalsifiable.

[The Servant]

How do you guys square the idea of superstar calls though? This would in effect be *rigging*, would it not? If they aren't above rigging one aspect, why not occasionally others?

low-level employee (ref) intimidated by high-level employee (superstar player).

I gotta disagree here. I see many refs that think they're bigger than the game. We even had refs rigging games in the past, one was arrested and his co-conspirator we know was never arrested or busted and is still in the league. Scott Foster says Hi to CP3 who was 3-17 in games reffed by Scott Foster.

How do you guys square the idea of superstar calls though? This would in effect be *rigging*, would it not? If they aren't above rigging one aspect, why not occasionally others?

The New York Times as an example would 100% report on a conspiracy to fix the lottery and would investigate if they had credible claims. They've never done so.

LOL. Yeah, with everything that has come out regarding media over the past 5 years I'm sure something could never occasionally happen without the NYT getting to the bottom of it. You live in a boomer's world bruh.

[GiannisAnte34]

There is 0% chance that 29 separate billionaires would all agree to league rigging the lottery to send the #1 prospect and potentially a billion dollars of revenue over the next 15 years to a different owner. These guys didn't get to be billionaires by giving money away.

this is crux of it. to go further, the owners don't all have the same goals. some of them care more about winning than making money. steve ballmer has different goals as a basketball owner than robert sarver did. or donald sterling. aligning all of these in a way that gets them ALL on board with any sort of organized fixing of any results (and remain on board AFTER they are owners) is inconceivable. but with enough circumstantial evidence you can sustain a conspiracy theory indefinitely because those susceptible to believing in them are not persuadable once succumbed.

it's a well known fact in business that oligarchies are formed based on a mutual understanding that cooperation is more sustainable than a free for all, even if the free for all would represent a potential short-term win

[sp6r=underrated]

LOL. Yeah, with everything that has come out regarding media over the past 5 years I'm sure something could never occasionally happen without the NYT getting to the bottom of it. You live in a boomer's world bruh.

Again it isn't just the NYT. If you're right that the NBA is engaged in a decades long conspiracy to fix outcomes. All the companies below have failed to discover any evidence of a conspiracy or aren't interested in determining whether a conspiracy exists:
LAT
Washington Post
Fox
NBC
CBS
PBS
BBC
CBC

And again we're talking decades without any evidence being reported. Decades.

[shi-woo]

As long as the NBA is partnered with and promoting gambling, I refuse to believe games/outcomes aren't being rigged

I share your disgust with the gambling partnerships and the NBA. It is morally revolting and frankly you have to go back to sportsleagues partnerships with cigarette companies to find a more noxious partnership. But my disgust is primarily about creating and promoting gambling addiction not games being fixed (which I don't worry much about outside a rogue individual rather than a conspiracy).

It is clear you do think games are fixed. Why follow the NBA if it is rigged?

For the same reason why I watch a TV show or movie, and the same reason I have a drink every once in a while even though I know it's poison. Because it's entertaining and kills the down time at night.

Most of us already know by the end of chapter one that Harry is going to kill Voldemort, but we still read the 7 books and watched the 8 movies to see what would happen in between those two consequential chapters. Same with Lord of the Rings, anyone watch Gandolf tell the story of the ring and not think the series was going to end with Frodo tossing the ring in Mt. Doom?

The NBA is a story, and I watch for the entertainment value it provides even if I know it's manufactured. The NBA can't dictate everything, players still play the game, and this creates the Grimdark Game of Thrones, Holy Sh** did they really just cut Neds head off at the end moments, which I also find entertaining.

So while I can detest the illusion of the NBA and it's big business practices, I still tune in from time to time in the same way that people still follow musicians/actors they know are murderers, sex offenders and pedophiles.

With that being said though, I watch less and less every year, and if basketball wasn't the thing that binds me to some of my friends I don't think I would follow it nearly as much as I do.

[slick_watts]

There is 0% chance that 29 separate billionaires would all agree to league rigging the lottery to send the #1 prospect and potentially a billion dollars of revenue over the next 15 years to a different owner. These guys didn't get to be billionaires by giving money away.

this is crux of it. to go further, the owners don't all have the same goals. some of them care more about winning than making money. steve ballmer has different goals as a basketball owner than robert sarver did. or donald sterling. aligning all of these in a way that gets them ALL on board with any sort of organized fixing of any results (and remain on board AFTER they are owners) is inconceivable. but with enough circumstantial evidence you can sustain a conspiracy theory indefinitely because those susceptible to believing in them are not persuadable once succumbed.

it's a well known fact in business that oligarchies are formed based on a mutual understanding that cooperation is more sustainable than a free for all, even if the free for all would represent a potential short-term win

what does this have to do with the price of tea in china?

[ballzboyee]

Whether you believe the draft is rigged or not, there was some chicanery going on with the Cavs winning the number 1 pick 3 times in 4 years after Lebron left. The the New Orleans Hornets not having an owner then winning the Anthony Davis lottery was fishy. Not to mention the picture of him in the Hornets hat earlier in the day.

The Bulls jumping from 9th best odds to number 1 to draft the hometown kid in 2008, the Cavs winning the lottery in 2003 to draft the hometown kid. NBA does a great job creating stories.

Why would the NBA care about helping Cleveland but not helping NYC?

Whats the storyline with Lebron going to NYC instead of Cleveland where hes from?

Why would Rose go to NYC instead of Chicago where he is from?

Carmelo ended up playing for New York directly in his prime.

Carmelo, Amare, Tyson Chandler, the trio Garnett, Joe Johnson, Paul PIerce and then Durant, Kyrie, & Harden then Towns, Brunson, and Bridges, etc. The greater New York area has been low key pumped with tons of talent over the years. It's not for lack of trying that those teams haven't found success.

[LordCovington33]

show them picking it. like lottery balls or even a guy picking pieces of paper out of a bucket. no reason to not do this except because its obviously rigged

Watch on YouTube

Enjoy

Yep, I was looking to see if anybody posted that YouTube link after his misinformed comment.

[GiannisAnte34]

this is crux of it. to go further, the owners don't all have the same goals. some of them care more about winning than making money. steve ballmer has different goals as a basketball owner than robert sarver did. or donald sterling. aligning all of these in a way that gets them ALL on board with any sort of organized fixing of any results (and remain on board AFTER they are owners) is inconceivable. but with enough circumstantial evidence you can sustain a conspiracy theory indefinitely because those susceptible to believing in them are not persuadable once succumbed.

it's a well known fact in business that oligarchies are formed based on a mutual understanding that cooperation is more sustainable than a free for all, even if the free for all would represent a potential short-term win

what does this have to do with the price of tea in china?

It means billionaires will set aside their selfishness when it suits their sustainability

[BasketballAnon]

LOL. Yeah, with everything that has come out regarding media over the past 5 years I'm sure something could never occasionally happen without the NYT getting to the bottom of it. You live in a boomer's world bruh.

Again it isn't just the NYT. If you're right that the NBA is engaged in a decades long conspiracy to fix outcomes. All the companies below have failed to discover any evidence of a conspiracy or aren't interested in determining whether a conspiracy exists:
LAT
Washington Post
Fox
NBC
CBS
PBS
BBC
CBC

And again we're talking decades without any evidence being reported. Decades.

Wouldn't be the 1st or 50th time. See how much coverage stuff like The Patriot Act being renewed gets over stuff like the girl who thought the character not greeting her kid at a theme park was racist got.

[HMFFL]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

It's likely not rigged every year.
The times it possibly was rigged (Ewing, Bron, etc) has been good for business.


At the end of the day the league is a business.

American Profit: Health care, Insurance, taxes, media, and Sports

[slick_watts]

it's a well known fact in business that oligarchies are formed based on a mutual understanding that cooperation is more sustainable than a free for all, even if the free for all would represent a potential short-term win

what does this have to do with the price of tea in china?

It means billionaires will set aside their selfishness when it suits their sustainability

so i'm guessing this is an attempted explanation for how a disparate group of rich nba owners past and present with competing interests might all cooperate to conspire together and keep it secret for perpetuity?

because, my friend, it falls a bit short.

[shangrila]

Why did the biggest market in the NBA suck for 2 decades? Can any of the conspiracy theorists answer that one?

Yup. I always have 2 questions for "NBA is rigged" crowd.
1. Why did the NBA allow NYC's team to suck for decades?
2. Why did the NBA hand 3 can't miss HOFers to the San Antonio Spurs who have 0 national profile?

Because contrary to popular belief, the league doesn't solely care about LA, NY and MIA. Healthy teams across the board make for a healthier league.

The thing with New York is they can be terrible and still be "healthy". They still make boatloads of money, have good attendance, etc. Compare that to teams in smaller markets and going decades like that would be a borderline death sentence.

Not sure what you mean about the Spurs having 0 national profile, they're pretty firmly entrenched in the minds of most NBA fans from the Duncan era. The same thing will happen with the Warriors, especially now that the 2 timelines thing blew up in their face; once Steph retires they'll be terrible for 3-5 years and then win the lottery when a universally considered generational prospect is available.

[slick_watts]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

It's likely not rigged every year.
The times it possibly was rigged (Ewing, Bron, etc) has been good for business.

it's easy to come to these conclusions when you just discard mundane results and only factor in the ones that appear suspicious to you.

[VFX]

Why would the NBA care about helping Cleveland but not helping NYC?

Whats the storyline with Lebron going to NYC instead of Cleveland where hes from?

Why would Rose go to NYC instead of Chicago where he is from?

Carmelo ended up playing for New York directly in his prime.

Carmelo, Amare, Tyson Chandler, the trio Garnett, Joe Johnson, Paul PIerce and then Durant, Kyrie, & Harden then Towns, Brunson, and Bridges, etc. The greater New York area has been low key pumped with tons of talent over the years. It's not for lack of trying that those teams haven't found success.

The last major signing in Orlando was Rashard Lewis more than a decade ago, recently KCP. Huge names I know.

But yeah... New York never gets talent filtered through their franchises...

It's almost like they are just poorly run despite being a huge market with significantly more talent walking in and out of their doors than just about any small market operation sans OKC.