Question for the "Draft Lottery is Rigged" Crowd

[WiggOuts]

Why did the biggest market in the NBA suck for 2 decades? Can any of the conspiracy theorists answer that one?

Yup. I always have 2 questions for "NBA is rigged" crowd.
1. Why did the NBA allow NYC's team to suck for decades?
2. Why did the NBA hand 3 can't miss HOFers to the San Antonio Spurs who have 0 national profile?

Because the NBA is a business and like all businesses they have preferred clientel. James Dolan is NOT liked by NBA executives. Hes always feuding with them and complaining about things, why would they want to help his team. Pop on the other hand is clearly well liked and respected. He is our modern day Red Auerbach/Phil Jackson. He has a legit legacy and when you have that its clear that the league wants to help you bolster it, as they've been known to do

[Sofia]

Why did the biggest market in the NBA suck for 2 decades? Can any of the conspiracy theorists answer that one?

Because not even Stern could make the shots go in

[The Servant]

As long as the NBA is partnered with and promoting gambling, I refuse to believe games/outcomes aren't being rigged

I share your disgust with the gambling partnerships and the NBA. It is morally revolting and frankly you have to go back to sportsleagues partnerships with cigarette companies to find a more noxious partnership. But my disgust is primarily about creating and promoting gambling addiction not games being fixed (which I don't worry much about outside a rogue individual rather than a conspiracy).

It is clear you do think games are fixed. Why follow the NBA if it is rigged?

I can agree with your take on gambling, I can't stand the incessant commercials pushing gambling and addiction.

Maybe the lotto isn't rigged at all. Maybe it was a handful of times over the 40+ drafts that have happened, with a handful of picks out of thousands made being for the betterment of the league.

Either way I'm not that passionate about it, doesn't really effect me and I just watch my team.

[Effigy]

Why did the biggest market in the NBA suck for 2 decades? Can any of the conspiracy theorists answer that one?

Do you believe multi billion dollar businesses arent above bending the rules to get better outcomes for their bottom line?

That doesn't answer his question. If the NBA fixes things, why did they allow the Knicks to be the NBA's worst team for twenty years.

NYC has two team and both rank in the bottom 5 in RS W%. Another large city (DC) is in the bottom 5.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To        Team    Lg    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2019-20   NYK   NBA   643   965   .400
2   2000-01   2019-20   CHO   NBA   598   845   .414
3   2000-01   2019-20   MIN   NBA   668   938   .416
4   2000-01   2019-20   WAS   NBA   686   928   .425
5   2000-01   2019-20   BRK   NBA   709   905   .439

The Knicks played the fewest playoff games over this span.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To       Team    Lg    G    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2012-13   NYK   NBA   30    9   21   .300
2   2000-01   2015-16   CHO   NBA   34   13   21   .382
3   2000-01   2017-18   MIN   NBA   36   14   22   .389
4   2002-03   2017-18   NOP   NBA   49   20   29   .408
5   2004-05   2017-18   WAS   NBA   66   29   37   .439

Do you believe multi billion dollar businesses arent above bending the rules to get better outcomes for their bottom line?

As to your question,
1. I do think it is possible for a company to bend the rules to make $ but the NBA is a cartel of 30 different companies. You have to believe that most members of the cartel are happy screwing themselves over.
2. If there is a conspiracy, it is amazing it has never leaked. The White House couldn't keep Watergate a secret from the Washington Post but 30 separate companies can engage in a decade long conspiracy without reporters finding out hits me as very unlikely.

And the NBA data just isn't supportive of a conspiracy. Outside the Lakers decades long success, there really isn't much coorelation between market size and success.

The Lakers is very easy to explain. Players do want to play in Los Angeles. That is a real competitive advantage. It is also unfixable without utterly breaking the players union. Unlike the Knicks the Lakers have generally had good management, for decades they had Jerry West who was one of the best GMs in history. Then Lebron decided he wanted to go to LA in 2019 saving the franchise after a half decade a terrible basketball.

Good management and players wanting to play in LA seems much more likely than a shadowy group of owners deciding to make the Lakers perpetual contenders.

They rigged it by giving you guys Ewing and have been called out on it for years. You guys also made an incredible amount of bad signings and bad trades that the league couldn't fix for you. The league was doing ok financially even with the Knicks being bad, so there was no need to save them from themselves. Also frankly, there was a different guy in charge then. The current guy is just more obvious about it.

The NBA 1000% DOES rig the lottery at TIMES but not every time.

[Effigy]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

Have the ping pong balls placed in the room with the team executives from all the lottery teams. On camera. Each of the teams with the 4 worst records has an executive pick one ball. The result of those 4 numbers determine the number and then whichever team was assigned that number gets the top pick. So if exec one picks a 3, exec 2 picks a 0, exec 3 picks a 9 exec 4 picks a 4, then whichever team had combination 3,094 gets the top pick. You can repeat for picks 2-4.

This could make for good tv. You have all 15 teams on screen at once, and when the first number comes out, it eliminates at least 5 of them, if not more, and you see their windows go dark and then drop out of view and then when pick 2 comes out it shrinks again. Though it may be obvious who is going to win after the 3rd pick unless the NBA switches up how it assigns numbers. IE, don't assing 0-1500 all to team one and then 1501-2500 to team 2 or whatever. You'd need to alternate them better so it guarantees or at least nearly guarantees drama after the third ball is picked.

[Fencer reregistered]

Do you believe multi billion dollar businesses arent above bending the rules to get better outcomes for their bottom line?

That doesn't answer his question. If the NBA fixes things, why did they allow the Knicks to be the NBA's worst team for twenty years.

NYC has two team and both rank in the bottom 5 in RS W%. Another large city (DC) is in the bottom 5.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To        Team    Lg    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2019-20   NYK   NBA   643   965   .400
2   2000-01   2019-20   CHO   NBA   598   845   .414
3   2000-01   2019-20   MIN   NBA   668   938   .416
4   2000-01   2019-20   WAS   NBA   686   928   .425
5   2000-01   2019-20   BRK   NBA   709   905   .439

The Knicks played the fewest playoff games over this span.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To       Team    Lg    G    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2012-13   NYK   NBA   30    9   21   .300
2   2000-01   2015-16   CHO   NBA   34   13   21   .382
3   2000-01   2017-18   MIN   NBA   36   14   22   .389
4   2002-03   2017-18   NOP   NBA   49   20   29   .408
5   2004-05   2017-18   WAS   NBA   66   29   37   .439

Ok I'll answer my own question.

The answer is absolutely not.

And who knows if it is actually rigged. You have Lebron making claims yesterday and he's about as close as it gets to being involved.

At the end of the day the Knicks will never be as big as the Yankees in that town just like the Dodgers or Rams will never be as big as the Lakers.

LOL at the Dodgers/Lakers comment.

[Oldham]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

How about (at least) some key results that are NOT in precise accordance with the league's wishes. The 4 generational talents (franchise savers) coming out of the draft in this century went to the "perfect" places. The Cleveland franchise is a disaster, and they get local high school legend LeBron. The New Orleans franchise is owned by the league and they're trying to sell it, and they get AD. When the future of the same franchise is in doubt after AD departs, they get Zion. San Antonio, the league's favorite son with its favorite head coach (who previously was going to retire), gets another generational player (and the head coach commits to staying at least 5 more years). Odds would be against even 1 of these 4 happening.

I don't believe the entire thing is fixed, because that would be hard to hide, and the league doesn't have a huge interest in every pick, and in some years, any particular pick. But understand that if any person had NBA level luck in a Casino, that Casino would ban them, and it would be deemed reasonable. At a certain point, you've defied the odds to so great an extent that the Casino is allowed to presume you're cheating (even if unable to prove it). It's more Occam's Razor than a conspiracy theory.

[sp6r=underrated]

Do you believe multi billion dollar businesses arent above bending the rules to get better outcomes for their bottom line?

That doesn't answer his question. If the NBA fixes things, why did they allow the Knicks to be the NBA's worst team for twenty years.

NYC has two team and both rank in the bottom 5 in RS W%. Another large city (DC) is in the bottom 5.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To        Team    Lg    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2019-20   NYK   NBA   643   965   .400
2   2000-01   2019-20   CHO   NBA   598   845   .414
3   2000-01   2019-20   MIN   NBA   668   938   .416
4   2000-01   2019-20   WAS   NBA   686   928   .425
5   2000-01   2019-20   BRK   NBA   709   905   .439

The Knicks played the fewest playoff games over this span.

Code: Select all

Rk    From    To       Team    Lg    G    W    L    W/L%
1   2000-01   2012-13   NYK   NBA   30    9   21   .300
2   2000-01   2015-16   CHO   NBA   34   13   21   .382
3   2000-01   2017-18   MIN   NBA   36   14   22   .389
4   2002-03   2017-18   NOP   NBA   49   20   29   .408
5   2004-05   2017-18   WAS   NBA   66   29   37   .439

Do you believe multi billion dollar businesses arent above bending the rules to get better outcomes for their bottom line?

As to your question,
1. I do think it is possible for a company to bend the rules to make $ but the NBA is a cartel of 30 different companies. You have to believe that most members of the cartel are happy screwing themselves over.
2. If there is a conspiracy, it is amazing it has never leaked. The White House couldn't keep Watergate a secret from the Washington Post but 30 separate companies can engage in a decade long conspiracy without reporters finding out hits me as very unlikely.

And the NBA data just isn't supportive of a conspiracy. Outside the Lakers decades long success, there really isn't much coorelation between market size and success.

The Lakers is very easy to explain. Players do want to play in Los Angeles. That is a real competitive advantage. It is also unfixable without utterly breaking the players union. Unlike the Knicks the Lakers have generally had good management, for decades they had Jerry West who was one of the best GMs in history. Then Lebron decided he wanted to go to LA in 2019 saving the franchise after a half decade a terrible basketball.

Good management and players wanting to play in LA seems much more likely than a shadowy group of owners deciding to make the Lakers perpetual contenders.

They rigged it by giving you guys Ewing and have been called out on it for years. You guys also made an incredible amount of bad signings and bad trades that the league couldn't fix for you. The league was doing ok financially even with the Knicks being bad, so there was no need to save them from themselves. Also frankly, there was a different guy in charge then. The current guy is just more obvious about it.

The NBA 1000% DOES rig the lottery at TIMES but not every time.

Ewing's draft was 40 yrs ago. So the NBA needed to save New Orleans but didn't need to help NYC.

This is why I think the conspiracy theories are unfalsefiable. You guys point to the lakers being good as a sign of a conspiracy. And places like SA winning as conspiracy. No matter the outcome, small market or big market winning, the answer is conspiracy.

Because conspiracy theorists are driven by low social trust.

[sp6r=underrated]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

How about (at least) some key results that are NOT in precise accordance with the league's wishes. The 4 generational talents (franchise savers) coming out of the draft in this century went to the "perfect" places. The Cleveland franchise is a disaster, and they get local high school legend LeBron. The New Orleans franchise is owned by the league and they're trying to sell it, and they get AD. When the future of the same franchise is in doubt after AD departs, they get Zion. San Antonio, the league's favorite son with its favorite head coach (who previously was going to retire), gets another generational player (and the head coach commits to staying at least 5 more years). Odds would be against even 1 of these 4 happening.

I don't believe the entire thing is fixed, because that would be hard to hide, and the league doesn't have a huge interest in every pick, and in some years, any particular pick. But understand that if any person had NBA level luck in a Casino, that Casino would ban them, and it would be deemed reasonable. At a certain point, you've defied the odds to so great an extent that the Casino is allowed to presume you're cheating (even if unable to prove it). It's more Occam's Razor than a conspiracy theory.

You're truly deranged if you think the NBA benefits by building winners in Cleveland, New Orleans and San Antonio over NYC, Chicago and DC. The later has way more people and way more $$.

The fact you cite them as evidence for a conspiracy tells me nothing could falsify your belief in it.

[jk31]

show them picking it. like lottery balls or even a guy picking pieces of paper out of a bucket. no reason to not do this except because its obviously rigged

dont they do it? i remember few years back that i actually watched the drawing?

[manlisten]

I'd say anti-conspiracy theorists are more irrational than the inverse because they don't believe ANYTHING at all could possibly be rigged or manipulated. They live in an incorruptible world were the powers that be are pure hearted and have the best interests for everyone.

[xdrta+]

I'd say anti-conspiracy theorists are more irrational than the inverse because they don't believe ANYTHING at all could possibly be rigged or manipulated. They live in an incorruptible world were the powers that be are pure hearted and have the best interests for everyone.

Really? Because someone doesn't think the lottery is rigged, that means that they think "the powers that be are pure hearted and have the best interests for everyone?" Really?

[Rapcity_11]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

How about (at least) some key results that are NOT in precise accordance with the league's wishes. The 4 generational talents (franchise savers) coming out of the draft in this century went to the "perfect" places. The Cleveland franchise is a disaster, and they get local high school legend LeBron. The New Orleans franchise is owned by the league and they're trying to sell it, and they get AD. When the future of the same franchise is in doubt after AD departs, they get Zion. San Antonio, the league's favorite son with its favorite head coach (who previously was going to retire), gets another generational player (and the head coach commits to staying at least 5 more years). Odds would be against even 1 of these 4 happening.

I don't believe the entire thing is fixed, because that would be hard to hide, and the league doesn't have a huge interest in every pick, and in some years, any particular pick. But understand that if any person had NBA level luck in a Casino, that Casino would ban them, and it would be deemed reasonable. At a certain point, you've defied the odds to so great an extent that the Casino is allowed to presume you're cheating (even if unable to prove it). It's more Occam's Razor than a conspiracy theory.

You're truly deranged if you think the NBA benefits by building winners in Cleveland, New Orleans and San Antonio over NYC, Chicago and DC. The later has way more people and way more $$.

The fact you cite them as evidence for a conspiracy tells me nothing could falsify your belief in it.

Just wait for the reasons this year will be seen as rigged. You can make-up a nice story for every lottery team.

Wizards - awful team in a big market needs reviving
Sixers - rewarded for bad luck with Embiid and/or making the Sixers a contender
Raptors - one of the biggest markets in the league but can't attract FAs so they get thrown a bone
Pelicans - team up Flagg with Zion
Hornets - reward the floundering team with the local Duke kid
Mavs - reward for gifting Luka to LA
Spurs - build the next superteam

Etc.

[sp6r=underrated]

How about (at least) some key results that are NOT in precise accordance with the league's wishes. The 4 generational talents (franchise savers) coming out of the draft in this century went to the "perfect" places. The Cleveland franchise is a disaster, and they get local high school legend LeBron. The New Orleans franchise is owned by the league and they're trying to sell it, and they get AD. When the future of the same franchise is in doubt after AD departs, they get Zion. San Antonio, the league's favorite son with its favorite head coach (who previously was going to retire), gets another generational player (and the head coach commits to staying at least 5 more years). Odds would be against even 1 of these 4 happening.

I don't believe the entire thing is fixed, because that would be hard to hide, and the league doesn't have a huge interest in every pick, and in some years, any particular pick. But understand that if any person had NBA level luck in a Casino, that Casino would ban them, and it would be deemed reasonable. At a certain point, you've defied the odds to so great an extent that the Casino is allowed to presume you're cheating (even if unable to prove it). It's more Occam's Razor than a conspiracy theory.

You're truly deranged if you think the NBA benefits by building winners in Cleveland, New Orleans and San Antonio over NYC, Chicago and DC. The later has way more people and way more $$.

The fact you cite them as evidence for a conspiracy tells me nothing could falsify your belief in it.

Just wait for the reasons this year will be seen as rigged. You can make-up a nice story for every lottery team.

Wizards - awful team in a big market needs reviving
Sixers - rewarded for bad luck with Embiid and/or making the Sixers a contender
Raptors - one of the biggest markets in the league but can't attract FAs so they get thrown a bone
Pelicans - team up Flagg with Zion
Hornets - reward the floundering team with the local Duke kid
Mavs - reward for gifting Luka to LA
Spurs - build the next superteam

Etc.

Exactly. I have conspiracy theorists to tell me what they need to stop believing in conspiracies. So I'll them what I need to happen for me to believe in the conspiracy theory: reporting.

If major news organizations come out with credible reporting of a conspiracy I'll believe in it. That isn't an outrageous demand. Given how many people are involved in the conspiracy it should be easy to expose.

[sp6r=underrated]

I'd say anti-conspiracy theorists are more irrational than the inverse because they don't believe ANYTHING at all could possibly be rigged or manipulated. They live in an incorruptible world were the powers that be are pure hearted and have the best interests for everyone.

I don't believe we live in a perfect world. And I fully recognize conspiracies can happen. I cited Watergate in this thread. But I require reporting showing a conspiracy is occurring rather than just assume there is a conspiracy due to just so stories.

[sp6r=underrated]

I'd say anti-conspiracy theorists are more irrational than the inverse because they don't believe ANYTHING at all could possibly be rigged or manipulated. They live in an incorruptible world were the powers that be are pure hearted and have the best interests for everyone.

Really? Because someone doesn't think the lottery is rigged, that means that they think "the powers that be are pure hearted and have the best interests for everyone?" Really?

Exactly. No one has produced any evidence of a conspiracy and I'm supposed to assume one is it occurring because of just so stories.

[DoItALL9]

I need you to go back in time and make the Ewing draft card selection less obvious.

[DoItALL9]

It's silly that the people who don't believe anything was ever rigged are trying to make it seem like if it was ever rigged in history then it must be rigged every year.

This conflating is bizarre.

[meekrab]

This question is specifically for the folks who believe the Lottery is rigged.

What would the NBA have to do for you to believe the Lottery is legitimate?

I wouldnt say the draft is necessarily "rigged".

HOWEVER, Dallas sits at a 1.3% chance to win the #1 pick.

After the whole Doncic debacle, and their GM choosing specifically LA as the team to send him, I would 100% believe it was rigged should they magically land Cooper Flagg.

This is similar to New Orleans trading away Anthony Davis and then them winning the Zion Williamson lottery with 6% chance.

The better question is how much happenstance has to take place for non-believers to buy into the idea that it is absolutely rigged.

40 win Bulls get home town D Rose with a 1% chance. Zion to Pels after AD to LA. Kyrie, Wiggins, Bennett 3x #1s for the Cavs after Bron leaves. Phoenix gets the #1 for Arizona alum Ayton (he's just a bust). I'm sure there are others I'm missing.

People call it mental illness, many people call it pattern recognition which is a basic human trait. Some people just think hmm, these are interesting coincidences.

Perfect example of my personal saying, the league is only rigged in the past tense. Anybody who actually knew the league was rigged would be rich from predicting and betting on the rigged outcomes.

[RoyceDa59]

I don’t see how it could possibly be rigged.

There are team representatives present for the ping pong ball process.