PushDaRock wrote:ConSarnit wrote:JB7 wrote:
Offensive efficiency plummets and defensive efficiency increases late in the season. I would say the typical combination at a seasons end where the team has a weak schedule along with using a number of g-league players or rookies playing for their NBA careers.
These numbers are buoyed by one game (BKN) and the fact that our defense has been “good” because we’ve played the absolute dregs of the league that last 10 games. Here are our “good” defensive games over the last 10:
Wiz x2
Sixers
Blazers
Nets
We’ve played absolutely garbage teams who have ramped up their tanking. March has been a completely unserious month.
I would focus more on the trend instead. This team was bottom 5 in DRTG before the start of 2025 and now we are sitting 16th. We started playing much better D way before this last 10 game stretch against tanking teams. I certainly don't think we are suddenly an elite D, but top 10 next season seems very realistic.
Again, these numbers are buoyed by playing absolutely terrible teams. Just go look at our “best” defensive performances over the past 2 months. You’ll see a trend: great defensive performances against the Wiz, Magic, Sixers, Nets, etc.
We were also never that bad defensively. We turned the ball over like crazy early in the year and that’s why our defense was terrible. I calculated in another thread that moving from a bottom 5 turnover team to middle of the pack was worth about 6-7ppg (enough to shift a bottom 3 defense to middle of the pack). Nearly 90% of our defensive improvement has come from cleaning up the offensive end.
The roster is not constructed to be a top 10 defense. If we’re playing IQ/RJ/BI that’s not going to be a good defensive trio. We should an decent defense next season but we don’t have the roster to be a very good defense and we play a style (ball movement = high turnover) that is always going to somewhat compromise our defensive ceiling. I have a hard time seeing how this team gets to top 10 in defense next year unless roster changes are made or we play a more conservative offensive style. The only real way I can see it is if Barnes becomes all-defense (which is definitely possible).
