2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[sp6r=underrated]

If you look at the usual 2nd best player on title teams this century Dray, Manu, Pau, Murray is weak sauce. He misses playoffs. When he's played in the playoffs he has had as many weak playoff runs as good ones. Everything about screams nice player not MVP level player.

Part of this is fans haven't adjusted statistical baseline for players. Murray's number 10 yrs ago would have been extremely impressive. Now, he's just another very good guard.

In 2024, 48 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2024, 17 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2024, 4 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2014, 20 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2014, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2014, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2004, 21 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2004, 2 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2004, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1994, 18 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1994, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1994, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1984, 28 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1984, 6 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1984, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

The bigger factor in the overrating of Murray is Lebron. MJ fans are deeply invested in MJ. Lebron fans are deeply invested in Lebron. In both cases understandably. Both had spectacular careers. But a lot of em hate anytime their hero is compared evenly and especially less favorably to someone else.

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene. After Jordan retired, MJ fans could just cite his stats anytime a guard or wing came along that was being compared to MJ. Then, the debate ended. Lebron was the first player who came after Jordan that you couldn't do that for. Unlike all the other pretenders, the data for Lebron starting in 08 was GOAT level player. So a lot of MJ fans really took to ripping Pippen or making much more of the 2011 Finals than was warranted.

That is what we are getting here. A guard who misses multiple playoff runs, has 2 great ones and 2 mediocre ones is not an impressive # 2. A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast.

And I say this despite holding Lebron > Jokic.

[eminence]

They're a below average title cast compared to recent seasons. I'd pick them as the weakest supporting cast of the last decade - could see a range from 7th-10th with the '16 Cavs/'20 Lakers/'22 Warriors depending on what one values (all teams that'd be on the playoff fringes or lower without their #1s). No case for the Nuggets cast over the '15/'17/'18 Warriors, '19 Raptors, '21 Bucks, '24 Celtics, all those squads would be PO teams without their stars and threats to win PO series.

[OhayoKD]

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene.

Then quote one please. Lebron fans dragging down Jokic seems like a bogey man when by your own argumentation...

A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast..

Jokic doesn't approach Lebron.

The Cavs were a much better team than the Nuggets. including a title-win over a stretch of seasons where they never played anything like a 4-7 team without him. They also were the second best team in the playoffs in 2015 with Kyrie missing close to half of it. Moreover, by "team implosion" kyrie at that point was not a comparable player to Murray, as evidenced both in Cleveland and Boston.

By your own reasoning ("team implodes without him") Jokic isn't even comparable to the much less respected 07-08 and 2015 iterations of Lebron yet you are now positing that the threat he offers Lebron at his best is the actual reason people are drawing a distinction between the version of Jamal Jokic has experienced a modicum of success with and the "weak #2" with which Jokic hasn't sniffed contention.

In reality the Murray denigration is what is analogous to Pippen denigration here. Jokic, like Jordan, has not showcased the ability to impact winning in-line with what certain made-up formulas suggest he could, and accordingly non-box watchers are not taking the idea of him as a Lebron-level player seriously.

[OhayoKD]

2019 Jokic was awesome in the playoffs I thought. The Bubble was actually a step down from that imo.

2019 Jokic was better in the PS with the caveat being that he had more favorable matchups in 19 vs. 2020. 2020 had much tougher defenses and better teams in general I would argue.

He also had by far the best defensive performance of his career in a game he shot 16 points on horrible efficiency.

[Special_Puppy]

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene.

Then quote one please. Lebron fans dragging down Jokic seems like a bogey man when by your own argumentation...

A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast..

In reality the Murray denigration is what is analogous to Pippen denigration here. Jokic, like Jordan, has not showcased the ability to impact winning in-line with what certain made-up formulas suggest he could, and accordingly non-box watchers are not taking the idea of him as a Lebron-level player seriously.

Can you elaborate? I have peak Lebron on another tier than peak Jokic. So I'm not disagreeing with you there. I'm just confused about this part. Jokic and Jordan look incredible in non-box metrics

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

[falcolombardi]

They're a below average title cast compared to recent seasons. I'd pick them as the weakest supporting cast of the last decade - could see a range from 7th-10th with the '16 Cavs/'20 Lakers/'22 Warriors depending on what one values (all teams that'd be on the playoff fringes or lower without their #1s). No case for the Nuggets cast over the '15/'17/'18 Warriors, '19 Raptors, '21 Bucks, '24 Celtics, all those squads would be PO teams without their stars and threats to win PO series.

I agree denver even in 23 was a weaker end title supporting cast

But my contention would be they were not some outlier bad (for a title team*) cast, somethingh like 94 rockets or 03 spurs is prolly closer to that and i still wouldnt call them truly weak casts

Also that 23 team while a incredible title run, also was kind of a "right time, right place" moment of the title bracket being unusually "weak" (relatively speaking) or injured (functionally the same thingh as being weak)

[falcolombardi]

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene.

Then quote one please. Lebron fans dragging down Jokic seems like a bogey man when by your own argumentation...

A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast..

In reality the Murray denigration is what is analogous to Pippen denigration here. Jokic, like Jordan, has not showcased the ability to impact winning in-line with what certain made-up formulas suggest he could, and accordingly non-box watchers are not taking the idea of him as a Lebron-level player seriously.

Can you elaborate? I have peak Lebron on another tier than peak Jokic. So I'm not disagreeing with you there. I'm just confused about this part. Jokic and Jordan look incredible in non-box metrics

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

If i had to translate i guess it means that the outlier boxcore totals amd aggregates (bpm, per, that stuff) outpaces the impact data

Jokic in impact metrics looks clearly like a top 5-10 guy ever, in bpm, per and similar questionable formulas he looks outright #1 ever

[Peregrine01]

If you look at the usual 2nd best player on title teams this century Dray, Manu, Pau, Murray is weak sauce. He misses playoffs. When he's played in the playoffs he has had as many weak playoff runs as good ones. Everything about screams nice player not MVP level player.

Part of this is fans haven't adjusted statistical baseline for players. Murray's number 10 yrs ago would have been extremely impressive. Now, he's just another very good guard.

In 2024, 48 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2024, 17 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2024, 4 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2014, 20 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2014, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2014, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2004, 21 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2004, 2 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2004, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1994, 18 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1994, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1994, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1984, 28 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1984, 6 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1984, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

The bigger factor in the overrating of Murray is Lebron. MJ fans are deeply invested in MJ. Lebron fans are deeply invested in Lebron. In both cases understandably. Both had spectacular careers. But a lot of em hate anytime their hero is compared evenly and especially less favorably to someone else.

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene. After Jordan retired, MJ fans could just cite his stats anytime a guard or wing came along that was being compared to MJ. Then, the debate ended. Lebron was the first player who came after Jordan that you couldn't do that for. Unlike all the other pretenders, the data for Lebron starting in 08 was GOAT level player. So a lot of MJ fans really took to ripping Pippen or making much more of the 2011 Finals than was warranted.

That is what we are getting here. A guard who misses multiple playoff runs, has 2 great ones and 2 mediocre ones is not an impressive # 2. A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast.

And I say this despite holding Lebron > Jokic.

I don’t think this is as much about Bron as much as it’s about anchoring and tribalism. Some are so anchored to their view that they’ve become deeply emotionally attached to it. For some on here this stuff is like tribal politics.

[OhayoKD]

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene.

Then quote one please. Lebron fans dragging down Jokic seems like a bogey man when by your own argumentation...

A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast..

In reality the Murray denigration is what is analogous to Pippen denigration here. Jokic, like Jordan, has not showcased the ability to impact winning in-line with what certain made-up formulas suggest he could, and accordingly non-box watchers are not taking the idea of him as a Lebron-level player seriously.

Can you elaborate? I have peak Lebron on another tier than peak Jokic. So I'm not disagreeing with you there. I'm just confused about this part. Jokic and Jordan look incredible in non-box metrics

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

There's a difference between "in line with what certain made-up formulas suggest" and whatever you're defining as "amazing", the former only being approached by Jordan in RAPM samples that massively overrespresent MJ at the moment (thereby artificially pulling him away from the mean). We'll see if 2024 changes things but Jokic looks worse than Lebron, KG, and Duncan in RAPM over similar time-frames and Jordan, like Jokic, comes crashing down to earth when we look at what happens over full games instead of small stretches of platooning:

Spoiler:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1766716418467225664%7Ctwgr%5E392e3e40fdf6b6481d62ada945930e214f8725af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2363635start%3D40

Adjusting for teammates, at least when done transparently in a manner that maximizes sample-size and relevance, doesn't help him much either:

Spoiler:

Players who left the 84 Bulls between 84 and 88 listed according to minutes averaged
-> Orlando Woodridge, whose next team gets 4 points worse
-> David Greenwood, whose next team got 3 points worse
-> Quintin Dailey, whose next team got 5 points worse
-> Ennis Whatley, whose next team stayed the same
-> Mitchell Wiggins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Rod Higgins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Reggie Theus, whose next team gets 2 points worse
-> Steve Johnson, whose next team got 2 points worse
-> Ronnie Lester, whsoe next team got 3 points better
-> Syndney Green, whose next team got 2 points better
-> Jawhan Oldham, whose next team got 1 point worse
-> Wallace Bryant whose next team got 1 point better

Jordan hitting his peak (88), as well as Chicago losing a bunch of negatives, culminated in a 27-win team (while tanking) improving about as much as the Bucks did with Rookie Kareem. Jordan leaving Chicago led to a drop-off (using the Bulls apex in 92, not 93) in-line with 08/09 Kevin Garnett.


Despite their made-up numbers, Jokic and Jordan, at least on basketball, don't belong in GOAT convos with actual outliers like say... Lebron.

I was planning to spare Jokic the embarrassment that comes with Lebron comparisons, but it seems someone had a phantom axe to grind so here we are.

 

[lessthanjake]

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene.

Then quote one please. Lebron fans dragging down Jokic seems like a bogey man when by your own argumentation...

The lack of self-awareness here genuinely made me laugh—well done!

[Special_Puppy]

Then quote one please. Lebron fans dragging down Jokic seems like a bogey man when by your own argumentation...


In reality the Murray denigration is what is analogous to Pippen denigration here. Jokic, like Jordan, has not showcased the ability to impact winning in-line with what certain made-up formulas suggest he could, and accordingly non-box watchers are not taking the idea of him as a Lebron-level player seriously.

Can you elaborate? I have peak Lebron on another tier than peak Jokic. So I'm not disagreeing with you there. I'm just confused about this part. Jokic and Jordan look incredible in non-box metrics

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

There's a difference between "in line with what certain made-up formulas suggest" and whatever you're defining as "amazing", the former only being approached by Jordan in RAPM samples that massively overrespresent MJ at the moment (thereby artificially pulling him away from the mean). We'll see if 2024 changes things but Jokic looks worse than Lebron, KG, and Duncan in RAPM over similar time-frames and Jordan, like Jokic, comes crashing down to earth when we look at what happens over full games instead of small stretches of platooning:

Spoiler:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1766716418467225664%7Ctwgr%5E392e3e40fdf6b6481d62ada945930e214f8725af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2363635start%3D40

Adjusting for teammates, at least when done transparently in a manner that maximizes sample-size and relevance, doesn't help him much either:

Spoiler:

Players who left the 84 Bulls between 84 and 88 listed according to minutes averaged
-> Orlando Woodridge, whose next team gets 4 points worse
-> David Greenwood, whose next team got 3 points worse
-> Quintin Dailey, whose next team got 5 points worse
-> Ennis Whatley, whose next team stayed the same
-> Mitchell Wiggins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Rod Higgins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Reggie Theus, whose next team gets 2 points worse
-> Steve Johnson, whose next team got 2 points worse
-> Ronnie Lester, whsoe next team got 3 points better
-> Syndney Green, whose next team got 2 points better
-> Jawhan Oldham, whose next team got 1 point worse
-> Wallace Bryant whose next team got 1 point better

Jordan hitting his peak (88), as well as Chicago losing a bunch of negatives, culminated in a 27-win team (while tanking) improving about as much as the Bucks did with Rookie Kareem. Jordan leaving Chicago led to a drop-off (using the Bulls apex in 92, not 93) in-line with 08/09 Kevin Garnett.


Despite their made-up numbers, Jokic and Jordan, at least on basketball, don't belong in GOAT convos with actual outliers like say... Lebron.

I was planning to spare Jokic the embarrassment that comes with Lebron comparisons, but it seems someone had a phantom axe to grind so here we are.

 

Do you think that Jordan doesn’t even belong in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation?

[Special_Puppy]

If you look at the usual 2nd best player on title teams this century Dray, Manu, Pau, Murray is weak sauce. He misses playoffs. When he's played in the playoffs he has had as many weak playoff runs as good ones. Everything about screams nice player not MVP level player.

Part of this is fans haven't adjusted statistical baseline for players. Murray's number 10 yrs ago would have been extremely impressive. Now, he's just another very good guard.

In 2024, 48 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2024, 17 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2024, 4 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2014, 20 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2014, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2014, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2004, 21 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2004, 2 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2004, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1994, 18 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1994, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1994, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1984, 28 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1984, 6 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1984, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

The bigger factor in the overrating of Murray is Lebron. MJ fans are deeply invested in MJ. Lebron fans are deeply invested in Lebron. In both cases understandably. Both had spectacular careers. But a lot of em hate anytime their hero is compared evenly and especially less favorably to someone else.

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene. After Jordan retired, MJ fans could just cite his stats anytime a guard or wing came along that was being compared to MJ. Then, the debate ended. Lebron was the first player who came after Jordan that you couldn't do that for. Unlike all the other pretenders, the data for Lebron starting in 08 was GOAT level player. So a lot of MJ fans really took to ripping Pippen or making much more of the 2011 Finals than was warranted.

That is what we are getting here. A guard who misses multiple playoff runs, has 2 great ones and 2 mediocre ones is not an impressive # 2. A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast.

And I say this despite holding Lebron > Jokic.

I don’t think this is as much about Bron as much as it’s about anchoring and tribalism. Some are so anchored to their view that they’ve become deeply emotionally attached to it. For some on here this stuff is like tribal politics.

Jokic is also suffering from Rick and Morty syndrome to some extent where people are negatively polarized against him because of some of his annoying fans lol

[lessthanjake]

Then quote one please. Lebron fans dragging down Jokic seems like a bogey man when by your own argumentation...


In reality the Murray denigration is what is analogous to Pippen denigration here. Jokic, like Jordan, has not showcased the ability to impact winning in-line with what certain made-up formulas suggest he could, and accordingly non-box watchers are not taking the idea of him as a Lebron-level player seriously.

Can you elaborate? I have peak Lebron on another tier than peak Jokic. So I'm not disagreeing with you there. I'm just confused about this part. Jokic and Jordan look incredible in non-box metrics

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

If i had to translate i guess it means that the outlier boxcore totals amd aggregates (bpm, per, that stuff) outpaces the impact data

Jokic in impact metrics looks clearly like a top 5-10 guy ever, in bpm, per and similar questionable formulas he looks outright #1 ever

I think this is broadly-speaking correct. By box metrics, Jokic looks pretty clearly like the #1 player ever. Meanwhile, RAPM definitely likes him. Indeed, one of Engelmann’s lifetime RAPM measures had Jokic #1 all time (but then he fiddled more and the next version had Jokic a bit further down). But it definitely doesn’t look *quite* as good for him as the box metrics do. If we were just looking at RAPM, Jokic would probably only look like someone who might have a fringe GOAT case. But while RAPM is certainly an important metric to look at, it’s not perfect (nor are different versions of it the same), so it’s not the only thing we should look at. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to look at a guy who looks like one of the best few players ever in RAPM and who looks like a pretty clear #1 ever in box measures and decide that that guy is the best player ever. It’s also reasonable not to do so. And, honestly, a lot of where people will land on that is going to depend on what their own eye test tells them about him. For me, my eye test is *extremely* high on Jokic, so I look at the overall data and see a reasonable case for him being the best player ever and tend to lean that direction because that is consistent with my eye test.

As for peoples’ discussion about the 2023 supporting cast, I think it’s definitely the case that the Nuggets had a supporting cast pretty far on the low end of talent as title winners go. That said, I think it’s also true that the Nuggets got a relatively easy route in the playoffs. They made their way through that relatively easy route quite easily though, so I think it was similarly impressive to other relatively-low-talent title teams that had more difficulty against a more difficult route. That said, I think it’s also true that Murray genuinely playing quite well in the 2023 playoffs is a big part of what allowed them to do that well. The Nuggets won the title easily enough that they really didn’t *need* Murray to play that well in order to win the title. But I think that’s largely a function of the relatively easy route. It’d be essentially impossible to win a title with the Nuggets supporting cast without something fortuitous happening—whether that’s an abnormally easy route through the playoffs or someone on the Nuggets playing well above their normal level. The 2023 Nuggets got both, so they not only won the title, but actually won it easily. In the absence of both of those things, I don’t really think the Nuggets can win. And with one of those things, I think they could win but it’d be a difficult slog.

[OhayoKD]

Can you elaborate? I have peak Lebron on another tier than peak Jokic. So I'm not disagreeing with you there. I'm just confused about this part. Jokic and Jordan look incredible in non-box metrics

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html

https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

There's a difference between "in line with what certain made-up formulas suggest" and whatever you're defining as "amazing", the former only being approached by Jordan in RAPM samples that massively overrespresent MJ at the moment (thereby artificially pulling him away from the mean). We'll see if 2024 changes things but Jokic looks worse than Lebron, KG, and Duncan in RAPM over similar time-frames and Jordan, like Jokic, comes crashing down to earth when we look at what happens over full games instead of small stretches of platooning:

Spoiler:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1766716418467225664%7Ctwgr%5E392e3e40fdf6b6481d62ada945930e214f8725af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2363635start%3D40

Adjusting for teammates, at least when done transparently in a manner that maximizes sample-size and relevance, doesn't help him much either:

Spoiler:

Players who left the 84 Bulls between 84 and 88 listed according to minutes averaged
-> Orlando Woodridge, whose next team gets 4 points worse
-> David Greenwood, whose next team got 3 points worse
-> Quintin Dailey, whose next team got 5 points worse
-> Ennis Whatley, whose next team stayed the same
-> Mitchell Wiggins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Rod Higgins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Reggie Theus, whose next team gets 2 points worse
-> Steve Johnson, whose next team got 2 points worse
-> Ronnie Lester, whsoe next team got 3 points better
-> Syndney Green, whose next team got 2 points better
-> Jawhan Oldham, whose next team got 1 point worse
-> Wallace Bryant whose next team got 1 point better

Jordan hitting his peak (88), as well as Chicago losing a bunch of negatives, culminated in a 27-win team (while tanking) improving about as much as the Bucks did with Rookie Kareem. Jordan leaving Chicago led to a drop-off (using the Bulls apex in 92, not 93) in-line with 08/09 Kevin Garnett.


Despite their made-up numbers, Jokic and Jordan, at least on basketball, don't belong in GOAT convos with actual outliers like say... Lebron.

I was planning to spare Jokic the embarrassment that comes with Lebron comparisons, but it seems someone had a phantom axe to grind so here we are.

 

Do you think that Jordan doesn’t even belong in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation?

Considering I've only been talking about peak/prime...

[Special_Puppy]

There's a difference between "in line with what certain made-up formulas suggest" and whatever you're defining as "amazing", the former only being approached by Jordan in RAPM samples that massively overrespresent MJ at the moment (thereby artificially pulling him away from the mean). We'll see if 2024 changes things but Jokic looks worse than Lebron, KG, and Duncan in RAPM over similar time-frames and Jordan, like Jokic, comes crashing down to earth when we look at what happens over full games instead of small stretches of platooning:

Spoiler:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1766716418467225664%7Ctwgr%5E392e3e40fdf6b6481d62ada945930e214f8725af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2363635start%3D40

Adjusting for teammates, at least when done transparently in a manner that maximizes sample-size and relevance, doesn't help him much either:

Spoiler:

Players who left the 84 Bulls between 84 and 88 listed according to minutes averaged
-> Orlando Woodridge, whose next team gets 4 points worse
-> David Greenwood, whose next team got 3 points worse
-> Quintin Dailey, whose next team got 5 points worse
-> Ennis Whatley, whose next team stayed the same
-> Mitchell Wiggins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Rod Higgins, whose next team got 5 points better
-> Reggie Theus, whose next team gets 2 points worse
-> Steve Johnson, whose next team got 2 points worse
-> Ronnie Lester, whsoe next team got 3 points better
-> Syndney Green, whose next team got 2 points better
-> Jawhan Oldham, whose next team got 1 point worse
-> Wallace Bryant whose next team got 1 point better

Jordan hitting his peak (88), as well as Chicago losing a bunch of negatives, culminated in a 27-win team (while tanking) improving about as much as the Bucks did with Rookie Kareem. Jordan leaving Chicago led to a drop-off (using the Bulls apex in 92, not 93) in-line with 08/09 Kevin Garnett.


Despite their made-up numbers, Jokic and Jordan, at least on basketball, don't belong in GOAT convos with actual outliers like say... Lebron.

I was planning to spare Jokic the embarrassment that comes with Lebron comparisons, but it seems someone had a phantom axe to grind so here we are.

 

Do you think that Jordan doesn’t even belong in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation?

Considering I've only been talking about peak/prime...

Saying that Jordan doesn't even *belong* in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation is an interesting view to say the least

[OhayoKD]

If you look at the usual 2nd best player on title teams this century Dray, Manu, Pau, Murray is weak sauce. He misses playoffs. When he's played in the playoffs he has had as many weak playoff runs as good ones. Everything about screams nice player not MVP level player.

Part of this is fans haven't adjusted statistical baseline for players. Murray's number 10 yrs ago would have been extremely impressive. Now, he's just another very good guard.

In 2024, 48 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2024, 17 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2024, 4 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2014, 20 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2014, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2014, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 2004, 21 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 2004, 2 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 2004, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1994, 18 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1994, 5 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1994, 0 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

In 1984, 28 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 20ppg.
In 1984, 6 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 25ppg.
In 1984, 1 players players played 1000 minutes and averaged 30ppg.

The bigger factor in the overrating of Murray is Lebron. MJ fans are deeply invested in MJ. Lebron fans are deeply invested in Lebron. In both cases understandably. Both had spectacular careers. But a lot of em hate anytime their hero is compared evenly and especially less favorably to someone else.

Lebron fans propping Murray up mirrors how Jordan fans denigrated Pippen when Lebron came on the scene. After Jordan retired, MJ fans could just cite his stats anytime a guard or wing came along that was being compared to MJ. Then, the debate ended. Lebron was the first player who came after Jordan that you couldn't do that for. Unlike all the other pretenders, the data for Lebron starting in 08 was GOAT level player. So a lot of MJ fans really took to ripping Pippen or making much more of the 2011 Finals than was warranted.

That is what we are getting here. A guard who misses multiple playoff runs, has 2 great ones and 2 mediocre ones is not an impressive # 2. A supporting cast that implodes when he goes to the bench or misses games is not an impressive supporting cast.

And I say this despite holding Lebron > Jokic.

I don’t think this is as much about Bron as much as it’s about anchoring and tribalism. Some are so anchored to their view that they’ve become deeply emotionally attached to it. For some on here this stuff is like tribal politics.

Jokic is also suffering from Rick and Morty syndrome to some extent where people are negatively polarized against him because of some of his annoying fans lol

You say to the poster who frequently derails Jokic conversations with personal attacks and insults because they have no response to Jokic criticism(or praise of his teammates) but to gatekeep opinions they don't like.

I'm just confused why the most emotionally anchored poster on this subject is commentating on the tribalistic anchoring of others.

[OhayoKD]

Do you think that Jordan doesn’t even belong in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation?

Considering I've only been talking about peak/prime...

Saying that Jordan doesn't even *belong* in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation is an interesting view to say the least

Is it?

Spoiler:

Multiple-Time Players of the Year

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10 wins)
1. Lebron James (6 + 4 wins)
3. Bill Russell (9 wins)
4a. Michael Jordan (6 wins)
4b. Tim Duncan (6* wins)
6. Magic Johnson (5 wins)
6. George Mikan (5 wins)
8. Hakeem Olajuwon (4 wins)
9. Nikola Jokic (0 + 3 wins)
10a. Larry Bird (2 wins)
10a. Bob Pettit (2 wins)
10c. Shaquille O’Neal (2* wins)

In this iteration of the project, Julius Erving had the most top two (4), top three (5) and top four (8) finishes without a win, and Oscar Robertson had the most top four (8) and top five (9) finishes without a win. Using the combined project results (which give a win to 1976 Erving and 1970 West), Kevin Durant and David Robinson have the most top two (3) finishes without a win, and Oscar Robertson has the most top three (5), top four (9), and top five (10) finishes without a win.

If we applied the same 10-7-5-3-1 scoring system to podium finishes, these would be the top twenty-five for this iteration of the project:

1. Lebron James (10-2-1-0-1 for 120 total)
2. Bill Russell (9-4-0-0-0 for 118 total)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10-0-3*-0-2 for 117 total)
4. Tim Duncan (6*-2-1-3-2 for 90 total)
5. Magic Johnson (5-4-1-1-0 for 86 total)
6. Michael Jordan (6-3-0-1-1 for 85 total)
7. Wilt Chamberlain (2-6-2-2-0 for 78 total)
8. Hakeem Olajuwon (4-2-3-0-1 for 70 total)
9. Shaquille O’Neal (2*-3-3-3-0 for 65 total)
10. Dolph Schayes (1-4*-4-0-2 for 60 total)
11. Larry Bird (2-2-3*-2-0 for 55 total)
12. George Mikan (5-0-0-0-0 for 50 total)
13. Kevin Garnett (1-2-4-1-1 for 48 total)
14. Nikola Jokic (3-1-1-0-1 for 43 total)
14. Bob Pettit (2-1-2-1-3 for 43 total)
14. Julius Erving (0-4-1-3-1 for 43 total)
17. Steph Curry (1-3-0-2-1 for 38 total)
18. Oscar Robertson (0-1-3-4-3 for 37 total)
19. Jerry West (0-3-1-2-2 for 34 total)
20. Kevin Durant (0-3-1-1-1 for 30 total)
21. Kobe Bryant (0-2-2-1-2 for 29 total)
21. Bob Cousy (0-2-2-1-2 for 29 total)
21. David Robinson (0-3-1-0-3 for 29 total)
24. Moses Malone (1-1-2-0-1 for 28 total)
25. Dwyane Wade (1-1-1-1-0 for 25 total)

The official share aggregating will take quite some time and will not be a direct match, but I hope this list will give people a sense of how the total share count might look.

Thank you again to everyone who put in the time to vote.

2022 was a long time ago.

[TheGOATRises007]

Do you think that Jordan doesn’t even belong in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation?

Considering I've only been talking about peak/prime...

Saying that Jordan doesn't even *belong* in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation is an interesting view to say the least

You haven't paid attention to ohayokd's posting before.

He's been beating that drum a while. At least he's consistent and brings it up in every thread possible if he can.

[Peregrine01]

I don’t think this is as much about Bron as much as it’s about anchoring and tribalism. Some are so anchored to their view that they’ve become deeply emotionally attached to it. For some on here this stuff is like tribal politics.

Jokic is also suffering from Rick and Morty syndrome to some extent where people are negatively polarized against him because of some of his annoying fans lol

You say to the poster who frequently derails Jokic conversations with personal attacks and insults because they have no response to Jokic criticism(or praise of his teammates) but to gatekeep opinions they don't like.

I'm just confused why the most emotionally anchored poster on this subject is commentating on the tribalistic anchoring of others.

I've been pretty critical of Jokic's passivity and defensive effort. In fact I thought that his passivity in the Lakers series last year played a direct hand in Murray's injury which ultimately doomed the Nuggets. And often, his defensive effort is just plain bad. I think Jokic is an all-time level player but that doesn't mean he's beyond reproach.

If by personal attacks you mean calling you a joke or a troll that has made discourse on this forum a lot worse, then I'm very happy to have done that.

[Special_Puppy]

Considering I've only been talking about peak/prime...

Saying that Jordan doesn't even *belong* in the GOAT Peak and Prime conversation is an interesting view to say the least

Is it?

Spoiler:

Multiple-Time Players of the Year

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10 wins)
1. Lebron James (6 + 4 wins)
3. Bill Russell (9 wins)
4a. Michael Jordan (6 wins)
4b. Tim Duncan (6* wins)
6. Magic Johnson (5 wins)
6. George Mikan (5 wins)
8. Hakeem Olajuwon (4 wins)
9. Nikola Jokic (0 + 3 wins)
10a. Larry Bird (2 wins)
10a. Bob Pettit (2 wins)
10c. Shaquille O’Neal (2* wins)

In this iteration of the project, Julius Erving had the most top two (4), top three (5) and top four (8) finishes without a win, and Oscar Robertson had the most top four (8) and top five (9) finishes without a win. Using the combined project results (which give a win to 1976 Erving and 1970 West), Kevin Durant and David Robinson have the most top two (3) finishes without a win, and Oscar Robertson has the most top three (5), top four (9), and top five (10) finishes without a win.

If we applied the same 10-7-5-3-1 scoring system to podium finishes, these would be the top twenty-five for this iteration of the project:

1. Lebron James (10-2-1-0-1 for 120 total)
2. Bill Russell (9-4-0-0-0 for 118 total)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10-0-3*-0-2 for 117 total)
4. Tim Duncan (6*-2-1-3-2 for 90 total)
5. Magic Johnson (5-4-1-1-0 for 86 total)
6. Michael Jordan (6-3-0-1-1 for 85 total)
7. Wilt Chamberlain (2-6-2-2-0 for 78 total)
8. Hakeem Olajuwon (4-2-3-0-1 for 70 total)
9. Shaquille O’Neal (2*-3-3-3-0 for 65 total)
10. Dolph Schayes (1-4*-4-0-2 for 60 total)
11. Larry Bird (2-2-3*-2-0 for 55 total)
12. George Mikan (5-0-0-0-0 for 50 total)
13. Kevin Garnett (1-2-4-1-1 for 48 total)
14. Nikola Jokic (3-1-1-0-1 for 43 total)
14. Bob Pettit (2-1-2-1-3 for 43 total)
14. Julius Erving (0-4-1-3-1 for 43 total)
17. Steph Curry (1-3-0-2-1 for 38 total)
18. Oscar Robertson (0-1-3-4-3 for 37 total)
19. Jerry West (0-3-1-2-2 for 34 total)
20. Kevin Durant (0-3-1-1-1 for 30 total)
21. Kobe Bryant (0-2-2-1-2 for 29 total)
21. Bob Cousy (0-2-2-1-2 for 29 total)
21. David Robinson (0-3-1-0-3 for 29 total)
24. Moses Malone (1-1-2-0-1 for 28 total)
25. Dwyane Wade (1-1-1-1-0 for 25 total)

The official share aggregating will take quite some time and will not be a direct match, but I hope this list will give people a sense of how the total share count might look.

Thank you again to everyone who put in the time to vote.

2022 was a long time ago.

*Peak* and *Prime* conversations and you are bringing up a *career* "stat" (which is basically just this board's personal opinions).