ConSarnit wrote:PushDaRock wrote:Maybe we can look at Deni Avdija as a possible example of someone that looked fairly hopeless as a shooter and has turned it around. His first 3 seasons, he shot 31.5%, 31.7% and 29.7% from 3 all on 1 make per game. Last 2 seasons, he's improved to 37.4% on 1.2 makes and this season 36.9% on 1.7 makes. Being at least a passable 3 point shooter has also opened up Avdija's driving game as he gets to the rim more and draws a lot more fouls since improving his shooting. In doing so, he went from sub 53 TS% career in his first 3 years to 60 TS% in his last 2 years. Not saying this is likely for Scottie but it is in the realm of possibility.
I’d say it’s possible but I’d add a caveat: Avdija is a case where he’s shifted the majority of his 3’s to “wide open” attempts. Here are his “wide open” stats over the years:
32%
39%
33%
44%
35%
Now compare that to Barnes:
29%
30%
39%
30%
The fact that Barnes can’t even hit in wide open situations is concerning. Even if we try and shift Barnes 3pt attempts to only “wide open” it still doesn’t really extrapolate to even an “average” 3pt shooter. Barnes is starting from an even lower place than Avdija. Now, we can definitely cut out some of Barnes ATB 3’s but then he get shifted to the corner (there are other guys much more suited for that role) and his corner shooting is way below league average so I worry he won’t get guarded at all from there either. It is currently looking like a difficult road to get Barnes to a player that needs to be guarded from 3 (I say this more in terms of playoffs. If he can shoot 33% in the regular season we can survive that).
I worry that we’d have to drop his 3pt volume so low that he’s still a complete non-factor. If he’s only taking 2 3pa per36 that is such low volume that I doubt it moves the needle at all. Barnes need to be able to make 35% of his 3’s and be taking at least 3-4 per game to make any kind of dent. It’s sort of the JV corollary: being able to hit 0.7 3’s per game isn’t really valuable because there are still far more possessions the defense will benefit from not guarding you at all. Effective 3pt shooting is both volume and 3pt%.
Honestly he's just a frustrating player to try and build an offense around, fair question would be if we would even try to if he didn't have his draft pedigree and now a max contract pending. With his current skill set, we are trying to squeeze blood from a stone. There's just nothing he does at an above average level we can increase the frequency of sustainably, the best thing he does is score on size mismatches which isn't something you can design an offense around. Simply put, he needs to improve his shooting. You need to be a Zion or Giannis, basically be a freak of nature to overcome a lack of shooting as a non C.
