2025 Offseason

[nate33]

Now that the dust has settled after the Trade Deadline, we have a pretty good idea what our cap and roster situation will look like next year:



A couple of observations:

• If we keep all of our draft picks, we hit the roster limit of 15 without signing any free agents or retaining any of Vukcevic, Champagnie or Holmes. There are also 3 two-way slots we can use.
  
• It doesn't look like being below the 90% cap minimum will be a problem.
  
• Assuming we trade away a SRP, we will be about $1M over the cap and $32M under the luxtax. We could use the $14.1M MLE to sign a veteran free agent if we wanted. Additionally, we could retain Brogdon at whatever price we want (we have his Bird Rights). And we can keep Holmes if we opt in on his final unguaranteed money.
  
• It's going to be hard to keep Vukcevic and Champagnie unless we dump more SRP's or buy out Smart
  
• We need to keep an eye out for the 2026-27 season when we project to fall about $65M below the salary cap (after Middleton and Smart come off the books). Either we will need to trade one or both of Middleton/Smart for a longer term deal by the Trade Deadline, or we will have to sign a big money free agent in the summer of 2026. I'm not enthusiastic about free agency. Bad teams in second-tier markets typically have to overpay. We surely won't get Jaren Jackson Jr. We would end up with a VanVleet tier guy.

[trast66]

I’ve been looking for this type of information, and here it is for free. Thank you!

Middleton and Smart making a lot, don’t see them as buyout candidates I guess.

Forgot all about Bey. If he can show he’s healthy could be a keeper or nice trade chip.

All those 20,21,22 year olds, down the line will have to make some choices on who to sign to 2nd contracts.

I believe we will use one or two seconds and package with “27” to try to move up as they will fall in love with someone in the low 20s.

Between Vuk and Justin, my sense is they prefer Vuk.

[doclinkin]

Now that the dust has settled after the Trade Deadline, we have a pretty good idea what our cap and roster situation will look like next year:



A couple of observations:

• If we keep all of our draft picks, we hit the roster limit of 15 without signing any free agents or retaining any of Vukcevic, Champagnie or Holmes. There are also 3 two-way slots we can use.
  
• It doesn't look like being below the 90% cap minimum will be a problem.
  
• Assuming we trade away a SRP, we will be about $1M over the cap and $32M under the luxtax. We could use the $14.1M MLE to sign a veteran free agent if we wanted. Additionally, we could retain Brogdon at whatever price we want (we have his Bird Rights). And we can keep Holmes if we opt in on his final unguaranteed money.
  
• It's going to be hard to keep Vukcevic and Champagnie unless we dump more SRP's or buy out Smart
  
• We need to keep an eye out for the 2026-27 season when we project to fall about $65M below the salary cap (after Middleton and Smart come off the books). Either we will need to trade one or both of Middleton/Smart for a longer term deal by the Trade Deadline, or we will have to sign a big money free agent in the summer of 2026. I'm not enthusiastic about free agency. Bad teams in second-tier markets typically have to overpay. We surely won't get Jaren Jackson Jr. We would end up with a VanVleet tier guy.

Reports say we traded one of our three 2nd rd picks this year. Not confirmed but I read where we were converting Champagnie to a regular contract. Still trying to hunt that down. Plus nobody seems to have complete info on what 2RPs we have sent out or received and if there are any protections on the Philly pick. Local reporters are asleep on the job right now.

[nate33]

Reports say we traded one of our three 2nd rd picks this year. Not confirmed but I read where we were converting Champagnie to a regular contract. Still trying to hunt that down. Plus nobody seems to have complete info on what 2RPs we have sent out or received and if there are any protections on the Philly pick. Local reporters are asleep on the job right now.

Good point about the SRP's.

Whether or not Champagnie is converted to a regular contract won't matter for next year, unless he is signed to a deal that guarantees him money next year. (I don't see any reason for them to guarantee his money next year. They didn't even guarantee Jared Butler's money, and Butler was more productive last season than Champagnie was this year.)

[bsilver]

Have to do something about Center. Vukcevic doesn’t seem good enough to keep. Holmes has been fine but we could get an equivalent for a lot less than 13.3M. Still would need a third center unless we draft a good one.

[9 and 20]

We will definitely be making some moves. Too many guards and wings and not many bigs. Plus I would guess (based on nothing) we keep Colby Jones and maybe Vuk too.

On the draft, both Georgetown and Maryland have pf/c types that line up with the mid/late first round. Under Grundle/Sheppard, I'd be confident we'd be landing one of them. Now, maybe another dude from France.

Anthony Gill seems like a great guy but maybe they can hire him as a coach???

I'd be surprised if Marcus Smart starts with us next year. Plus maybe they can trade Poole if he shows out the rest of the year.

Really hoping we land Flagg but I'm assuming he already has a Utah Jazz neck tattoo he's been hiding. Still, for the first time in a long time, super optimistic going forward.

[dckingsfan]

This is going to be a fascinating/exciting off-season. Start with the lottery and then move to the draft. If we hit either #1 or #2 then a massive celebration ensues. Adding two FRPs in this draft is terrific and there seems to be a lot of solid players in the second round. Putting Nate's organization post in a different light and in no specific order...

Guard, Poole, Bub, Smart, Johnson, Kispert
Forward: Bilal, George, Bey, Middleton
Center: Sarr (although I would argue he is a PF)

I would think this would influence the potential signings of Vukcevic over Champagnie? It might also influence our 24th pick?

[payitforward]

Terrific thread -- wch, somehow, I'd missed until just now.

The following 8 seem certain to be here next year:
Alex Sarr
Bub Carrington
Bilal Coulibaly
AJ Johnson
Kyshawn George
Colby Jones
Justin Champagnie
Jordan Poole

I didn't understand the acquisition of Saddiq Bey. I imagine he & Corey Kispert will be on the market. Seems like 1 of them might be gone this off season. Perhaps for draft capital. If so, that takes us to 9.

I can't imagine we'll pick up Anthony Gill's option. Holmes, OTOH, has demonstrated that he's still a very productive player. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him on the roster. Now we're at 10.

If 2 of Smart, Middleton & Brogdon are with us, we will have 3 regular roster spots, i.e. there'll be room on the regular roster for all 3 of our picks. Alternatively, we may sign a FA, which would leave no regular roster spot for our R2 pick.

Which brings us to the 3 two-way spots.

JT Thor is negligible, & Vukcevic just doesn't seem like he'll stick. Jaylen Martin might be back. Hence it looks like we'll have a 2 way spot open for our R2 pick. & another for an undrafted player.

[AFM]

So should we hire MEM's recently fired coach this offseason?

[nate33]

So should we hire MEM's recently fired coach this offseason?

I'm pretty happy with Keefe. He may or may not be a great X's and O's coach, but he seems to be pretty good on the player development front. The youngsters get a lot of minutes, play hard, and they seem to be improving. Since the goal right now remains player development, I don't see much reason to change coaches.

The time will come when we transition from player development to actually trying to win games. I don't know yet whether Keefe will be the right coach for that phase. It's hard to tell since we aren't trying to win yet.

[9 and 20]

If Memphis fired their coach at this point in the season, there's got to be something there - some kind of misconduct, criminal, DUI - gotta be something. Maybe he farted in the presence of the owner. Is he on social media and did he say something there?

I think we make another trade or two this off-season. Happy to trade Middleton, Smart, Bey, and even Kispert for more useless players plus draft picks far out in the future, even second rounders if that's all we can get. Maybe keep Kispert as the vet mentor now if the other old guys go.

Would like to keep Vuk for another season, at least.

Big coup would be dumping Poole.

[TheBlackCzar]

So should we hire MEM's recently fired coach this offseason?

I'm pretty happy with Keefe. He may or may not be a great X's and O's coach, but he seems to be pretty good on the player development front. The youngsters get a lot of minutes, play hard, and they seem to be improving. Since the goal right now remains player development, I don't see much reason to change coaches.

The time will come when we transition from player development to actually trying to win games. I don't know yet whether Keefe will be the right coach for that phase. It's hard to tell since we aren't trying to win yet.

I think purely from an X's and O's standpoint I'd like to see what Rajon Rondo could do as a coach or even Sam Cassell..... Not now but maybe down the road....

[nate33]

Big coup would be dumping Poole.

Why?

Poole's salary is not a problem. Indeed, it keeps us from signing unnecessary players just to get to the cap minimum. The guy is our leading scorer and he does so at a TS% 4% higher than the team average while being the focus of the opposition's defense. Without his presence, our offense would be even more dreadful than it already is.

I'm not at all opposed to trading Poole if we get future assets in return, but I don't see a compelling reason to "dump" him.

[Rafael122]

Unless Jenkins was assaulting people or doing something heinous, I see no reason why Winger and Dawkins can't bring him in. The only opening that I could potentially see would be the Suns job.

I think cap wise, correct me if I'm wrong Nate, but we're at $157 million, roughly $3 million over the cap. That includes Holmes' non-guarantee. My guess is they will try to move him and Kispert in the offseason.

[nate33]

Unless Jenkins was assaulting people or doing something heinous, I see no reason why Winger and Dawkins can't bring him in. The only opening that I could potentially see would be the Suns job.

I think cap wise, correct me if I'm wrong Nate, but we're at $157 million, roughly $3 million over the cap. That includes Holmes' non-guarantee. My guess is they will try to move him and Kispert in the offseason.

Yeah, that's about right. We might be only $2M over the cap if it's true that we only have one SRP. But that's mostly irrelevant. The point is, we have plenty of luxtax room, but no real cap room. We will be operating as a capped team, meaning we will need to use the MLE, BAE or Bird Rights to sign/keep players, but we are in no real danger of paying the luxtax.

[closg00]

Unless Jenkins was assaulting people or doing something heinous, I see no reason why Winger and Dawkins can't bring him in. The only opening that I could potentially see would be the Suns job.

I think cap wise, correct me if I'm wrong Nate, but we're at $157 million, roughly $3 million over the cap. That includes Holmes' non-guarantee. My guess is they will try to move him and Kispert in the offseason.[/quote]

Yeah, that's about right. We might be only $2M over the cap if it's true that we only have one SRP. But that's mostly irrelevant. The point is, we have plenty of luxtax room, but no real cap room. We will be operating as a capped team, meaning we will need to use the MLE, BAE or Bird Rights to sign/keep players, but we are in no real danger of paying the luxtax.

If we are fortunate enough to be able to unload Corey, I hope it won't be an Ernie Grunfeld-style clean-up for the dump. Ideally we keep Holmes for Center depth (if we don't draft Maluach), and flip him later.

[dckingsfan]

Unless Jenkins was assaulting people or doing something heinous, I see no reason why Winger and Dawkins can't bring him in. The only opening that I could potentially see would be the Suns job.

I think cap wise, correct me if I'm wrong Nate, but we're at $157 million, roughly $3 million over the cap. That includes Holmes' non-guarantee. My guess is they will try to move him and Kispert in the offseason.

Yeah, that's about right. We might be only $2M over the cap if it's true that we only have one SRP. But that's mostly irrelevant. The point is, we have plenty of luxtax room, but no real cap room. We will be operating as a capped team, meaning we will need to use the MLE, BAE or Bird Rights to sign/keep players, but we are in no real danger of paying the luxtax.

We don't really care, right?

PIF mentioned it above somewhat. A slightly different spin but... I would think we would waive Holmes and Gill?

I don't think there will be a market for Middleton, Poole or Smart given where the CBA is right now (and team's cap positions). I am guessing they all return. I am guessing Colby Jones returns as well.

So...

Code: Select all

Middleton    34   $33,296,296
Poole        26   $31,848,215
Smart        32   $21,586,855
Kispert      27   $13,975,000
Sarr         20   $11,808,240
Coulibaly    21   $7,275,600
Bey          26   $6,118,644
Carrington   20   $4,677,600
Johnson      21   $3,090,480
George       22   $2,966,760
Jones        23   $2,221,677
FRP          ??   
FRP          ??   

That would be 13 players and 8 of them would be development/help the tank players. Do we even care about the 14th player? Maybe one of the SRPs makes it onto the roster. Or, if we can trade all three SRPs to move into the draft or to future years... so much the better.

What am I missing? Even if we hit the #1 pick in this year's draft, we still want to tank again. Keefe seems to understand how to do this well. I think he was a good hire and will be good when we are ready to compete in '27 - '28. If we have bad luck and don't get a #1 option in this the next two drafts, we simply trade the youngsters for more picks. Rinse/repeat.

[dckingsfan]

If we are fortunate enough to be able to unload Corey, I hope it won't be an Ernie Grunfeld-style clean-up for the dump. Ideally we keep Holmes for Center depth (if we don't draft Maluach), and flip him later.

I don't think it matters. We intentionally didn't play him this year as it helped with the tank. And yes, we will just have to keep Kispert for some time to come.

[closg00]

If we are fortunate enough to be able to unload Corey, I hope it won't be an Ernie Grunfeld-style clean-up for the dump. Ideally we keep Holmes for Center depth (if we don't draft Maluach), and flip him later.

I don't think it matters. We intentionally didn't play him this year as it helped with the tank. And yes, we will just have to keep Kispert for some time to come.

You're probably right, Corey's trade value is probably negligible, except for another mediocre player

[payitforward]

Under contract for next year:
Middleton
Smart
Kispert
Bey
Poole
Sarr
Coulibaly
Carrington
Johnson
George

Team option for next year:
Champagnie -- undoubtedly his option will be picked up
Jones -- undoubtedly his option will be picked up
Martin (2-way) -- his option is extremely likely to be picked up

That's 12 regular-roster players (out of 15) and 1 two-way player (out of 3).

Plus:
two Round 1 picks
two Round 2 picks

The two R1 picks take us to 14 of our allotted 15 regular roster players.

The two R2 picks might be signed as two-way players, taking us to our allotted 3 (with Jaylen Martin). Or one of them might fill out our regular roster while the other takes us to 2 of our allotted 3 two-way guys.

In either case, there is room for only 1 other player & there is uncertainty whether he'll be on a two-way contract or the 15-man roster.

Then there are:
Anthony Gill – he seems almost certain to be let go (or hired as a coach) at the end of this season.
Richaun Holmes -- I think there'll be a major effort to trade him in the off season. Otherwise, his contract may well be re-negotiated & he'll stay. Which way we go on Holmes may well be influenced by...
Tristan Vukcevic – a FA at end of this season, it's a good question whether he will be let go, signed to another 2-way contract, or promoted to the regular roster.

Could turn out differently of course. But I do think we'll be seeing 4 rookies next year!