2025 Offseason

[dckingsfan]

Ugh, good point PIF, I forgot about Champagnie. Add him into the mix and we have 14.

We shall see about Holmes and Vukcevic. Might pick up one of them or not (depending on the draft). Could also be one of the SRPs or they just leave it open.

Given that we are going to have two rookies and five second year players. I would say, kick the can down the road on the SRPs. But that is just me...

[payitforward]

Ugh, good point PIF, I forgot about Champagnie. Add him into the mix and we have 14.

We shall see about Holmes and Vukcevic. Might pick up one of them or not (depending on the draft). Could also be one of the SRPs or they just leave it open.

Given that we are going to have two rookies and five second year players. I would say, kick the can down the road on the SRPs. But that is just me...

We are going to have more than two rookies next year!
The only thing you get free in the NBA is draft picks. Waste them, & you will never build a good team.

Case in point: with the worst record in the league, you would expect us to have the #31 pick in this year's draft. We don't. Wasted.

All the same, even without our own #31 pick, we had 3 R2 picks this year.

One seems to have been traded to Memphis in the deal that brought us Marcus Smart & Colby Jones.

Might we, in turn, trade 1 of our remaining pair of R2 picks -- maybe to move another pick up in the draft? Sure -- we saw Will do just that last year.

But, even in that case we'll have three rookies not two. More likely, we'll have four. Whether all of them play for us next year... that's a separate question!

[nate33]

If David Aldridge is to be believed, we only have one SRP this year - the Phoenix pick. We have 15 more SRP's between 2027 and 2030 so it wouldn't be at all surprising if we packaged some combination of them to move up or to add another 2025 pick. (Hat tip to Doc for digging up the Aldridge article.)

[AFM]

Ugh, good point PIF, I forgot about Champagnie. Add him into the mix and we have 14.

We shall see about Holmes and Vukcevic. Might pick up one of them or not (depending on the draft). Could also be one of the SRPs or they just leave it open.

Given that we are going to have two rookies and five second year players. I would say, kick the can down the road on the SRPs. But that is just me...

We are going to have more than two rookies next year!
The only thing you get free in the NBA is draft picks. Waste them, & you will never build a good team.

Case in point: with the worst record in the league, you would expect us to have the #31 pick in this year's draft. We don't. Wasted.

All the same, even without our own #31 pick, we had 3 R2 picks this year.

One seems to have been traded to Memphis in the deal that brought us Marcus Smart & Colby Jones.

Might we, in turn, trade 1 of our remaining pair of R2 picks -- maybe to move another pick up in the draft? Sure -- we saw Will do just that last year.

But, even in that case we'll have three rookies not two. More likely, we'll have four. Whether all of them play for us next year... that's a separate question!

We have 2 firsts and 3 seconds, no? It gets confusing.

https://www.nba.com/news/2025-nba-mock-draft-latest-2-round-predictions-as-ncaa-tournament-begins

2
~25 (via grizzlies)
~42 (via Suns)
~47 (via Pistons)
~52 (via Warriors)

[dckingsfan]

If David Aldridge is to be believed, we only have one SRP this year - the Phoenix pick. We have 15 more SRP's between 2027 and 2030 so it wouldn't be at all surprising if we packaged some combination of them to move up or to add another 2025 pick. (Hat tip to Doc for digging up the Aldridge article.)

Yep, this is what is indeed confusing as AFM points out. Even Tankathon has us with 3.

And this is what I am reading from RealGM:

Less favorable of WAS and GOS*; and less favorable of (i) DET 31-55 and (ii) more favorable of WAS and GOS* [or neither (i) nor (ii) to WAS if DET 56-60] (via DET to LAC to POR to DET; via DET swap of GOS for WAS (via BRK); via BOS swap of DET, GOS or WAS for DAL; via DET to WAS); Most favorable of WAS, GOS, DAL and DET 31-55 to BOS; less favorable of (i) DAL and (ii) most / more favorable of WAS, GOS and DET 31-55 to UTH (via DET to LAC to POR to DET; via DET swap of GOS for WAS (via BRK); via BOS swap of DET, GOS or WAS for DAL; via DAL to UTH; via DET to WAS); PHX* -- *WAS will convey the second most / more favorable to MIL and the least / less favorable to MEM

But Aldridge could indeed be correct and we have only one SRP to go with our 2 FRPs.

Edit: Ignore, found this. Looks like we do indeed have 3 picks. Our pick, the Grizzlies pick, Suns SRP.

https://prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Years/2025.htm

[dckingsfan]

Unless Jenkins was assaulting people or doing something heinous, I see no reason why Winger and Dawkins can't bring him in. The only opening that I could potentially see would be the Suns job.

I think cap wise, correct me if I'm wrong Nate, but we're at $157 million, roughly $3 million over the cap. That includes Holmes' non-guarantee. My guess is they will try to move him and Kispert in the offseason.

Yeah, that's about right. We might be only $2M over the cap if it's true that we only have one SRP. But that's mostly irrelevant. The point is, we have plenty of luxtax room, but no real cap room. We will be operating as a capped team, meaning we will need to use the MLE, BAE or Bird Rights to sign/keep players, but we are in no real danger of paying the luxtax.

We don't really care, right?

PIF mentioned it above somewhat. A slightly different spin but... I would think we would waive Holmes and Gill?

I don't think there will be a market for Middleton, Poole or Smart given where the CBA is right now (and team's cap positions). I am guessing they all return. I am guessing Colby Jones returns as well.

So...

Code: Select all

Middleton    34   $33,296,296
Poole        26   $31,848,215
Smart        32   $21,586,855
Kispert      27   $13,975,000
Sarr         20   $11,808,240
Coulibaly    21   $7,275,600
Bey          26   $6,118,644
Carrington   20   $4,677,600
Johnson      21   $3,090,480
George       22   $2,966,760
Jones        23   $2,221,677
Champagnie   24   $2,349,578
FRP          ??   
FRP          ??   

That would be 13 players and 8 of them would be development/help the tank players. Do we even care about the 14th player? Maybe one of the SRPs makes it onto the roster. Or, if we can trade all three SRPs to move into the draft or to future years... so much the better.

What am I missing? Even if we hit the #1 pick in this year's draft, we still want to tank again. Keefe seems to understand how to do this well. I think he was a good hire and will be good when we are ready to compete in '27 - '28. If we have bad luck and don't get a #1 option in this the next two drafts, we simply trade the youngsters for more picks. Rinse/repeat.

Edit above with Champagnie. That is 14 players under contract. The SRP could be used as a 2-way, kicked down the road or used to move up in combination with our later FRP.

I think if we want to move up further, I think we would need to use one or more of our youngsters.

My prediction; We stay where we are at and bring in the 3 rookies (one on a two-way) to go along with our 4 second-year players and 2 third-year players.

[doclinkin]

Edit: Ignore, found this. Looks like we do indeed have 3 picks. Our pick, the Grizzlies pick, Suns SRP.

https://prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Years/2025.htm

Right. In the 2nd round we have the Suns pick. That's it. Can we all agree to make this clear so we don't have to pull the links seven more times? Tankathon is wrong. It happens. Nobody pays attention to the Wizards so they haven't updated.

[closg00]

Anyone familiar with this guy, he has Wiz and NBA connections.

Watch on YouTube

[dobrojim]

Not familiar with him but watched most of it.

PIF probably hates this guy. He starts by trading JC.

[dobrojim]

PS all the recent chatter about Fleming makes me curious
who is considered better between him and Bryant.

[closg00]

Guys, as we approach the draft, what do think we should do with Tristan, keep or look to upgrade through the draft?

[payitforward]

He's shown nothing in two seasons. I'm not particularly interested in him.

In any case, he's on a 2-way contract, so he poses no real contract or roster numbers issue.

[NatP4]

He’s going to be a valuable NBA player. Not many 7 footers that can shoot 37% from 3 on volume. Still only 21. I hope they give him 2000+ minutes next year.

[closg00]

He’s going to be a valuable NBA player. Not many 7 footers that can shoot 37% from 3 on volume. Still only 21. I hope they give him 2000+ minutes next year.

I agree, but I was contemplating trading him in for another stretch 5 who can shoot 3’s well, and is better on D, like Renaud.

[nate33]

He's shown nothing in two seasons. I'm not particularly interested in him.

In any case, he's on a 2-way contract, so he poses no real contract or roster numbers issue.

Nothing?

His numbers are fantastic. Per 36, he posted 23.2 points, 9.1 rebounds 2.7 assists, 1.6 blocks with a .608 TS% and a .373 3P%. He was statistically quite a bit better than Sarr, although he was playing in a lot of garbage time so grain of salt and all.

All that said, it looks like the coaching staff does not like him very much because they only played him when we were in the hard core tanking phase of the season. His on/off numbers were actually slightly positive, so it didn't appear that he was dragging the team down, but I guess the coaches are seeing too many bad defensive rotations and sloppy screens.

Ultimately, with Sarr showing he will likely be a competent 3-point shooter, I think he will fill the stretch-5 role on offense whenever we want to play 5-out. I don't really think we need to prioritize keeping another stretch-5 on the roster. I'm happy with Sarr at center, plus another young beefier guy (like Sorber), and then a 3rd string veteran.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Vukcevic finds a home somewhere else where he can be a backup stretch-5. It just probably won't happen here.

[closg00]

He's shown nothing in two seasons. I'm not particularly interested in him.

In any case, he's on a 2-way contract, so he poses no real contract or roster numbers issue.

Nothing?

His numbers are fantastic. Per 36, he posted 23.2 points, 9.1 rebounds 2.7 assists, 1.6 blocks with a .608 TS% and a .373 3P%. He was statistically quite a bit better than Sarr, although he was playing in a lot of garbage time so grain of salt and all.

All that said, it looks like the coaching staff does not like him very much because they only played him when we were in the hard core tanking phase of the season. His on/off numbers were actually slightly positive, so it didn't appear that he was dragging the team down, but I guess the coaches are seeing too many bad defensive rotations and sloppy screens.

Ultimately, with Sarr showing he will likely be a competent 3-point shooter, I think he will fill the stretch-5 role on offense whenever we want to play 5-out. I don't really think we need to prioritize keeping another stretch-5 on the roster. I'm happy with Sarr at center, plus another young beefier guy (like Sorber), and then a 3rd string veteran.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Vukcevic finds a home somewhere else where he can be a backup stretch-5. It just probably won't happen here.

Do you think we could have been “hiding him” so he wouldn’t potentially get snatched-up (despite out rights)? Imagine we will treat him like we did last year, which is to keep him if everything else pans out first.

[nate33]

He's shown nothing in two seasons. I'm not particularly interested in him.

In any case, he's on a 2-way contract, so he poses no real contract or roster numbers issue.

Nothing?

His numbers are fantastic. Per 36, he posted 23.2 points, 9.1 rebounds 2.7 assists, 1.6 blocks with a .608 TS% and a .373 3P%. He was statistically quite a bit better than Sarr, although he was playing in a lot of garbage time so grain of salt and all.

All that said, it looks like the coaching staff does not like him very much because they only played him when we were in the hard core tanking phase of the season. His on/off numbers were actually slightly positive, so it didn't appear that he was dragging the team down, but I guess the coaches are seeing too many bad defensive rotations and sloppy screens.

Ultimately, with Sarr showing he will likely be a competent 3-point shooter, I think he will fill the stretch-5 role on offense whenever we want to play 5-out. I don't really think we need to prioritize keeping another stretch-5 on the roster. I'm happy with Sarr at center, plus another young beefier guy (like Sorber), and then a 3rd string veteran.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Vukcevic finds a home somewhere else where he can be a backup stretch-5. It just probably won't happen here.

Do you think we could have been “hiding him” so he wouldn’t potentially get snatched-up (despite out rights)? Imagine we will treat him like we did last year, which is to keep him if everything else pans out first.

I doubt they were doing that strategically. It may turn out that way though. If nobody signs him to a guaranteed deal, we might be pretty happy to bring him back for one more year on a 2-way deal and see how he pans out.

[dobrojim]

There are no secrets in the Association.

[dckingsfan]

Guys, as we approach the draft, what do think we should do with Tristan, keep or look to upgrade through the draft?

I like that he improved his 3 point shooting percentage to .373. That is a bit of a break out as he did it on a larger volume.

His defense didn't really take a step up and that is mostly due to his anemic defensive rebounding - his shot blocking is fine.

As a 21 year old, I think he is in a decent place. But paired next to Sarr - not so much. So, he needs to be a backup C (he played 513 minutes this year).

I think the answer will be in whom we draft. If we draft a big with either of the FRPs, I think he might be released. Or he could be kept as a 3rd C.

I will say that I think the difference of Vuk becoming a solid backup C is his defensive rebounding. Do we examples of a 21 year old becoming a good defensive rebounder?

The second and probably less important aspect is where he is taking his shots. He takes too few of his shots at the hoop and too many of his shots from 3-16 feet (.353). When he does get to the rim he finishes really well. That is coaching and having competent PGs to get him his shot.

My answer is he is a keeper for one more year to see if he can improve in either of those areas.