2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 4: Who is the MVP?)

[EmpireFalls]

Shai has advantage in total plius/minus +364 over second place. No one has reached even +200 from 97 season. Also +364 difference could be the highest from second teammate in NBA history.

1. Shai 2025 +367
2. Curry 2017 +195
3. Gobert 2021 +180
4. Lebron 2009 +177
5. O'Neal 2000 +174
6. Giannis 2020 +156
7. Dirk 2003 +129
8. Duncan 2007 +122
9. Jokic 2023 +122

Total plius/minus

1. Green 2016 +1072
2. Curry 2016 +1022
3. Curry 2017 +1015
4. Curry 2015 +919
5. Shai 2025 +907 (7 games left to play)

That’s insane.

[Special_Puppy]

Shai has advantage in total plius/minus +364 over second place. No one has reached even +200 from 97 season. Also +364 difference could be the highest from second teammate in NBA history.

1. Shai 2025 +367
2. Curry 2017 +195
3. Gobert 2021 +180
4. Lebron 2009 +177
5. O'Neal 2000 +174
6. Giannis 2020 +156
7. Dirk 2003 +129
8. Duncan 2007 +122
9. Jokic 2023 +122

Total plius/minus

1. Green 2016 +1072
2. Curry 2016 +1022
3. Curry 2017 +1015
4. Curry 2015 +919
5. Shai 2025 +907 (7 games left to play)

That’s insane.

FWIW Bball Index’s stable net rating leaders since 2014 (basically net rating regressed to the average)

1. 2016 Draymond
2. 2016 Curry
3. 2017 Curry
4. 2015 Curry
5. 2025 SGA
6. 2017 Draymond
7. 2015 Draymond
8. 2021 Gobert
9. 2021 Conley
10. 2016 Thompson

[DrModesty]

Some people don't comprehend how big the gap in record is between OKC and Denver. Denver is closer to the Spurs (13th seed) than they are the Thunder. ALL of the teams that have a bigger win/lose gap from Denver than OKC have spent half the season actively self sabotaging their records.

[Doctor MJ]

Shai has advantage in total plius/minus +364 over second place. No one has reached even +200 from 97 season. Also +364 difference could be the highest from second teammate in NBA history.

1. Shai 2025 +367
2. Curry 2017 +195
3. Gobert 2021 +180
4. Lebron 2009 +177
5. O'Neal 2000 +174
6. Giannis 2020 +156
7. Dirk 2003 +129
8. Duncan 2007 +122
9. Jokic 2023 +122

Total plius/minus

1. Green 2016 +1072
2. Curry 2016 +1022
3. Curry 2017 +1015
4. Curry 2015 +919
5. Shai 2025 +907 (7 games left to play)

I’m glad someone else is seeing this and realizing what a big deal it is.

Any arguments at all being made that Shai is just a “best player in best team” type of candidate need to go away. What he’s doing is extreme outlier stuff like we haven’t seen from a guard since Curry.

I repeat: There are NO guards since Curry who have had a season that belongs anywhere near Shai.

And yes, that’s a bit weird, because his rise to superstardom was slower than typical and early on draftmate guards Luka and Trae took to league more adroitly.

Going even deeper into the journey, we need to remember that at Kentucky Shai didn’t begin the year as a starter because there were literally several other guys on the roster more hyped than Shai.

And even though Shai would eventually grab the starting spot and be the 2nd guy drafted from the team, the impact data for him in college doesn’t show him value to have been drastically underrated. In college, he wasn’t a POY level guy.

Of course, delayed stardom isn’t an entirely novel thing, isn’t an entirely novel thing for guards…and isn’t a novel thing for MVP level Canadian guards.

Now as I say all of that, I’m still not looking to knock Jokic who may well be the best offensive player in history, and really does have a case form MVP.

But anyway to dismissing Shai as something less than an MVP level player is missing the most important takeaway of this regular season.

If there’s just one thing people take away from the season, honestly, for me it’s probably that Shai really is THAT guy.


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[Mavrelous]

Shai has advantage in total plius/minus +364 over second place. No one has reached even +200 from 97 season. Also +364 difference could be the highest from second teammate in NBA history.

1. Shai 2025 +367
2. Curry 2017 +195
3. Gobert 2021 +180
4. Lebron 2009 +177
5. O'Neal 2000 +174
6. Giannis 2020 +156
7. Dirk 2003 +129
8. Duncan 2007 +122
9. Jokic 2023 +122

Total plius/minus

1. Green 2016 +1072
2. Curry 2016 +1022
3. Curry 2017 +1015
4. Curry 2015 +919
5. Shai 2025 +907 (7 games left to play)

That’s insane.

FWIW Bball Index’s stable net rating leaders since 2014 (basically net rating regressed to the average)

1. 2016 Draymond
2. 2016 Curry
3. 2017 Curry
4. 2015 Curry
5. 2025 SGA
6. 2017 Draymond
7. 2015 Draymond
8. 2021 Gobert
9. 2021 Conley
10. 2016 Thompson

What OP tried to show isn't net rating, but estimate the level of difference the top player had on net rating compared to the second one on the team.
This is a brilliant metric that must be contrasted with on/off.

[playa-hater]

If anyone had the least bit of common sense, they would be able to see that the entire team in denver runs the game through the joker and he means far more to that team than SGA does for OKC. Jokic got robbed an MVP already to Embiid. The far better supporting cast that SGA has over Jokic is so freaking obvious. Denver would be the Wizards without Jokic. And you don't need to look at advanced stats To know that is a fact.

Nah, i'm a Jokic stan myself but SGA is clearly the MVP.

Jokic got robbed by the media and the biggest loser of all times in Joe L's mvp season, he will lose again this season and rightfully so. It's laughable to compare that robbery to the race this season

Is there a significant gap in supporting casts? Yes. Is Jokic more "valuable"? Yes. Is Jokic better? Yes

and yes, most likely he will finish top 3 in all the major stats (plus steals and would be leading the league in 3p% if it werent for his numerous heaves), while no player has ever finished even top 10 in all

However Sga has barely missed games while Jokic has missed a bunch and he's by far the best player on a 70 wins team in the age of "parity" with comparable advanced stats and that makes him the MVP

Had Jokic and SGA played the same number of games, there would still be a discussion but once the Joker missed those 5 games, to go along with the ones he missed earlier - this race was over and rightfully so

Aren't those 3 reasons the biggest reasons to get an MVP?

[Special_Puppy]

That’s insane.

FWIW Bball Index’s stable net rating leaders since 2014 (basically net rating regressed to the average)

1. 2016 Draymond
2. 2016 Curry
3. 2017 Curry
4. 2015 Curry
5. 2025 SGA
6. 2017 Draymond
7. 2015 Draymond
8. 2021 Gobert
9. 2021 Conley
10. 2016 Thompson

What OP tried to show isn't net rating, but estimate the level of difference the top player had on net rating compared to the second one on the team.
This is a brilliant metric that must be contrasted with on/off.

I was looking at total plus-minus leaders and giving essentially a different version of it. SGA's gap from 2nd is basically a perfect storm of SGA having an ATG season, having one of the best supporting casts in the league, and nobody on that supporting cast standing out even if they've been absolutely insane collectively

[slick_watts]

i think i still have shai. jokic is clearly superior on offense and is having an all-time season on that end. but i'm less convinced that this year his defense isn't bringing his total impact down a bit, and of course shai is on an all-time great defensive team to which he appears to be a significant contributor.

either way it's nuts we have both these guys having seasons like this.

[ITYSL]

I'd definitely be cool with a co-MVP. They are both such sick players.

[TinmanZBoy]

If anyone had the least bit of common sense, they would be able to see that the entire team in denver runs the game through the joker and he means far more to that team than SGA does for OKC. Jokic got robbed an MVP already to Embiid. The far better supporting cast that SGA has over Jokic is so freaking obvious. Denver would be the Wizards without Jokic. And you don't need to look at advanced stats To know that is a fact.

Nah, i'm a Jokic stan myself but SGA is clearly the MVP.

Jokic got robbed by the media and the biggest loser of all times in Joe L's mvp season, he will lose again this season and rightfully so. It's laughable to compare that robbery to the race this season

Is there a significant gap in supporting casts? Yes. Is Jokic more "valuable"? Yes. Is Jokic better? Yes

and yes, most likely he will finish top 3 in all the major stats (plus steals and would be leading the league in 3p% if it werent for his numerous heaves), while no player has ever finished even top 10 in all

However Sga has barely missed games while Jokic has missed a bunch and he's by far the best player on a 70 wins team in the age of "parity" with comparable advanced stats and that makes him the MVP

Had Jokic and SGA played the same number of games, there would still be a discussion but once the Joker missed those 5 games, to go along with the ones he missed earlier - this race was over and rightfully so

Aren't those 3 reasons the biggest reasons to get an MVP?

No, narrative is

[EmpireFalls]

‘25 Shai might lose to 2016 Curry, 2013 LeBron, 2009 LeBron off the top of my head over the past 15 years (it would still be competitive either way)

Think he wins literally every other single one.

[Exp0sed]

If anyone had the least bit of common sense, they would be able to see that the entire team in denver runs the game through the joker and he means far more to that team than SGA does for OKC. Jokic got robbed an MVP already to Embiid. The far better supporting cast that SGA has over Jokic is so freaking obvious. Denver would be the Wizards without Jokic. And you don't need to look at advanced stats To know that is a fact.

Nah, i'm a Jokic stan myself but SGA is clearly the MVP.

Jokic got robbed by the media and the biggest loser of all times in Joe L's mvp season, he will lose again this season and rightfully so. It's laughable to compare that robbery to the race this season

Is there a significant gap in supporting casts? Yes. Is Jokic more "valuable"? Yes. Is Jokic better? Yes

and yes, most likely he will finish top 3 in all the major stats (plus steals and would be leading the league in 3p% if it werent for his numerous heaves), while no player has ever finished even top 10 in all

However Sga has barely missed games while Jokic has missed a bunch and he's by far the best player on a 70 wins team in the age of "parity" with comparable advanced stats and that makes him the MVP

Had Jokic and SGA played the same number of games, there would still be a discussion but once the Joker missed those 5 games, to go along with the ones he missed earlier - this race was over and rightfully so

Aren't those 3 reasons the biggest reasons to get an MVP?

they're significant but winning games and playing games have been traditionally more important. Thunder are gonna win about 70 games and SGA has played in almost all of them and have been by any metric (or eye test) possible, far and away the driver of this particular bus

a 70 wins team being one of the youngest teams in the NBA, that's quite the "bus" and the driver of that bus is the MVP. there's no way to give it to anyone else, even if that someone has been individually better (and Jokic at least per game, has been better. it's debatable whether he's been better commulatively and the MVP is a commulative award). there's a team component to the award and being up 16 games is one thing but +16 on the Nuggets while being the clear cut best team in the league and one of the best in history - that's your MVP

is the reason for the huge gap in wins the differences in supporting cast and coaching, rather than SGA being better than Jokic this season? ofc..but that doesn't make Jokic the MVP.

the Thunder get the award by default for having one of the best seasons ever, it'd take alot for the MVP to go elsewhere and it shouldn't even be a conversation but Jokic has been so insane this season and so historically good, we're still actually discussing it (which is kinda nuts) but that conversation ends with SGA winning his first MVP

[sp6r=underrated]

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?s=46&t=kXz47zZ_dZNjyZ0pjPEBWQ

He'd get my vote. Then Jokic for # 2. Then a clear gap for 3-5.

I'm pretty indifferent to Jokic vs SGA for number 1 personally

If it is statistically close and 1 guy is the center of an ATG team while the other is playing for a fairly pedestrian club, I'll favor the former strongly.

[Castle Black]

Most points in a Triple-Double in NBA history.

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[Special_Puppy]

‘25 Shai might lose to 2016 Curry, 2013 LeBron, 2009 LeBron off the top of my head over the past 15 years (it would still be competitive either way)

Think he wins literally every other single one.

In terms of individual play or in terms of how strong his overall case is (factoring in team results and narrative)?

[Castle Black]

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[Special_Puppy]

He'd get my vote. Then Jokic for # 2. Then a clear gap for 3-5.

I'm pretty indifferent to Jokic vs SGA for number 1 personally

If it is statistically close and 1 guy is the center of an ATG team while the other is playing for a fairly pedestrian club, I'll favor the former strongly.

Fairs. I've been pretty consistent about not really caring about team record (per our discussions on Burrow vs Allen vs Lamar for MVP on Twitter), but others factor it in

[Shock Defeat]

Most points in a Triple-Double in NBA history.

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Luka played 47 mins
Harden played 46 mins
Jokic played 53 mins

[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

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