2025 NBA Draft Discussion Part 4

[NotMyKawhi]

If you draft based solely on "potential," you're going to lose a lot more than you will win.

He has a lot of warning signs that make his bust potential very high.

Grateful you arent the gm

6"10 SG who is an elite rebounder and shot blocker. Elite athelte. Is quick w it. Gets to his spot. Zero bust potential imo

Historically the only similar freshman who overcame such a poor college FT% is Brandon Ingram but I'm not seeing the same guard skills in Ace plus Ingram's college 3pt% was better.

If Ace had shot 50/40/80 I probably would see him in a better light. But the fact remains that Ace isn't really a hooper, he's just a kid who is really talented at getting jumpshots off. Unfortunately jumpshot accuracy, ability to get to rim OTD, passing, defense, etc... collectively comprise more of what's important to be a top tier player.

Ultimately jumpshooting will only get you so far. Let's say his %s improve and he also becomes passable on D over time... his handle and ability to get by guys on ball and his passing are both so weak right now, there are just way too many things that need to go perfect for Ace which makes him a poor dart.

If all the things that need to go well for him come to fruition he's still only a JB type player and JB is one of the more controversial "all stars" in the eyes of the analytics community.

You guys are so lost. VJ is small, Ace is a 6'10 SG who shot better from the field and 3 than VJ

Lets compare past SG prospects. Ace better from 3 and field than Anthony Edwards, Cade, Ja, I can go on and on

[Jerry Lucas]

My current top 15:

1. C Flagg
2. D Harper
3. J Fears
4. K Maluach
5. K Jackucionis
6. K Knueppel
7. J Richardson
8. VJ Edgecombe
9. A Bailey
10. T Johnson
11. C Murray-Boyles
12. D Queen
13. T Sorber
14. C Bryant
15. A Newell

What is the tier separation for your top 15? Because this is very different from your pre-tournament top 10. I'm curious to know about some of the changes there, as I usually enjoy reading your posts in these draft threads.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

VJ is better than the guards infront of him too minus Harper, all those other guards will be defensive liabilities from day 1

VJ is small.

Ace is an elite athlete, 6'10 SG. Already an elite shot blocker for a SG. Way more defensive potential at SG.

Ace is going to be a PF/SF in the NBA.

There's no chance he's laterally quick enough to defend the perimeter against guys like Donovan Mitchell.

He likely gets stronger and plays as a jump shooting shot making PF ala KD.

Dollarama KD

[ItsDanger]

Whatever they do, it's imperative they draft a 4/5 that can shoot 3s. There are a lot of options throughout this draft which fits that description.

[OakleyDokely]

Ace 9 lmao

Ace has the highest potential of them all.

If you draft based solely on "potential," you're going to lose a lot more than you will win.

He has a lot of warning signs that make his bust potential very high.

Grateful you arent the gm

6"10 SG who is an elite rebounder and shot blocker. Elite athelte. Is quick w it. Gets to his spot. Zero bust potential imo

SG is a stretch. He's a 3/4 wing along the lines of a Brandon Ingram

Problem is, Ace is inefficient, isn't a competent playmaker, and he doesn't get to the line nearly enough. Hard to be a star with these kind of issues.

[Yallbecrazy]

VJ is better than the guards infront of him too minus Harper, all those other guards will be defensive liabilities from day 1

VJ is small.

Ace is an elite athlete, 6'10 SG. Already an elite shot blocker for a SG. Way more defensive potential at SG.

Ace is going to be a PF/SF in the NBA.

There's no chance he's laterally quick enough to defend the perimeter against guys like Donovan Mitchell.

He likely gets stronger and plays as a jump shooting shot making PF ala KD.

I watched Danny Wolf blow by him to the rim for a dunk, he's probably a pure stretch 4.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Grateful you arent the gm

6"10 SG who is an elite rebounder and shot blocker. Elite athelte. Is quick w it. Gets to his spot. Zero bust potential imo

Historically the only similar freshman who overcame such a poor college FT% is Brandon Ingram but I'm not seeing the same guard skills in Ace plus Ingram's college 3pt% was better.

If Ace had shot 50/40/80 I probably would see him in a better light. But the fact remains that Ace isn't really a hooper, he's just a kid who is really talented at getting jumpshots off. Unfortunately jumpshot accuracy, ability to get to rim OTD, passing, defense, etc... collectively comprise more of what's important to be a top tier player.

Ultimately jumpshooting will only get you so far. Let's say his %s improve and he also becomes passable on D over time... his handle and ability to get by guys on ball and his passing are both so weak right now, there are just way too many things that need to go perfect for Ace which makes him a poor dart.

If all the things that need to go well for him come to fruition he's still only a JB type player and JB is one of the more controversial "all stars" in the eyes of the analytics community.

You guys are so lost. VJ is small, Ace is a 6'10 SG who shot better from the field and 3 than VJ

Lets compare past SG prospects. Ace better from 3 and field than Anthony Edwards, Cade, Ja, I can go on and on

So basically the most predictive marker for shooting is (3PAr+FT%) which is even more accurate for 3PT projection than 3PT% itself. Edwards got to the hole almost 10% more frequently in the HC at Georgia and had real guard skills (because he's actually a guard), >2x higher AST%, higher FTr and just a whole bunch of better markers than Ace, to the point where I wouldn't bother comparing them.

Ace could end up like GG Jackson+

[Yallbecrazy]

Historically the only similar freshman who overcame such a poor college FT% is Brandon Ingram but I'm not seeing the same guard skills in Ace plus Ingram's college 3pt% was better.

If Ace had shot 50/40/80 I probably would see him in a better light. But the fact remains that Ace isn't really a hooper, he's just a kid who is really talented at getting jumpshots off. Unfortunately jumpshot accuracy, ability to get to rim OTD, passing, defense, etc... collectively comprise more of what's important to be a top tier player.

Ultimately jumpshooting will only get you so far. Let's say his %s improve and he also becomes passable on D over time... his handle and ability to get by guys on ball and his passing are both so weak right now, there are just way too many things that need to go perfect for Ace which makes him a poor dart.

If all the things that need to go well for him come to fruition he's still only a JB type player and JB is one of the more controversial "all stars" in the eyes of the analytics community.

You guys are so lost. VJ is small, Ace is a 6'10 SG who shot better from the field and 3 than VJ

Lets compare past SG prospects. Ace better from 3 and field than Anthony Edwards, Cade, Ja, I can go on and on

So basically the most predictive marker for shooting is (3PAr+FT%) which is even more accurate for 3PT projection than 3PT% itself. Edwards got to the hole almost 10% more frequently in the HC at Georgia and had real guard skills (because he's actually a guard), >2x higher AST%, higher FTr and just a whole bunch of better markers than Ace, to the point where I wouldn't bother comparing them.

Ace could end up like GG Jackson+

GG Jackson had a <5% chance of being a decent pro, Bailey has at least a 20% chance in my opinion.

[OakleyDokely]

My current top 15:

1. C Flagg
2. D Harper
3. J Fears
4. K Maluach
5. K Jackucionis
6. K Knueppel
7. J Richardson
8. VJ Edgecombe
9. A Bailey
10. T Johnson
11. C Murray-Boyles
12. D Queen
13. T Sorber
14. C Bryant
15. A Newell

What is the tier separation for your top 15? Because this is very different from your pre-tournament top 10. I'm curious to know about some of the changes there, as I usually enjoy reading your posts in these draft threads.

The top 2 are locked in barring something crazy happening.

After, digging a little a deeper, I think Fears/Maluach will translate very well to the NBA game which is why I moved them up.

Even though Fears is erratic offensively, he's still so young that many of his efficiency issues can be corrected with better shot selection and experience. He has guard NBA size, he gets to the line at a crazy rate, he shoots 85% from the FT line so I think his 3 ball will come along over time. He's a solid playmaker and rebounder and he also works defensively to create turnovers. I think there's big time potential with him given that he's one of the youngest players in the draft.

I read a lot that Maluach is this big wildcard or unknown, but what I look at his game, even if his shot/offense doesn't come around, he already possesses so many NBA skills. He's a 7'2 monster who can defend the rim, but he also has the ability to extend his defense to the perimeter, which is extremely valuable in the NBA at his size. He's efficient around the basket when he does get the ball in those positions. He's only been playing basketball for a few years, so I think there's potential for a Siakam-like leap over time given that he's so inexperienced. The Raptors have the right developmental system for him. Frankly, what he's shown already with such little experience in a tough conference is pretty impressive.

Knueppel has also grown on me. When look you at his shooting and his all-around game in a 6'7 SG body, that's an enticing package. He's probably one the safest guys in the draft. I think he's going to have a long career.

With Jace, I could see moving him up depending on his final measurements. If he's on the smaller side, it's going to be tougher at the NBA level.

With VJ Edgecombe, I don't think there's enough natural offensive skills or shooting touch for him to become a real difference maker on that end. I see him as a guy whose ultimate role is similar to Suggs -- elite defender who knocks down some open shots.

Ace is the hardest guy to place because he looks the part -- a long, shot maker, but a lot of the important metrics raise big red flags. It's almost impossible to be star in the modern NBA if you aren't a decent playmaker, f you don't get to the line and you're not efficient. He's got this tunnel vision that scares me. Maybe he figures it out and becomes the best player in the draft, but I wouldn't want to take that risk with a top 5 pick.

CM and Queen could move up depending on workouts/measurements. I think both are going to be legit NBA players.

[Clutch0z24]

Grateful you arent the gm

6"10 SG who is an elite rebounder and shot blocker. Elite athelte. Is quick w it. Gets to his spot. Zero bust potential imo

Historically the only similar freshman who overcame such a poor college FT% is Brandon Ingram but I'm not seeing the same guard skills in Ace plus Ingram's college 3pt% was better.

If Ace had shot 50/40/80 I probably would see him in a better light. But the fact remains that Ace isn't really a hooper, he's just a kid who is really talented at getting jumpshots off. Unfortunately jumpshot accuracy, ability to get to rim OTD, passing, defense, etc... collectively comprise more of what's important to be a top tier player.

Ultimately jumpshooting will only get you so far. Let's say his %s improve and he also becomes passable on D over time... his handle and ability to get by guys on ball and his passing are both so weak right now, there are just way too many things that need to go perfect for Ace which makes him a poor dart.

If all the things that need to go well for him come to fruition he's still only a JB type player and JB is one of the more controversial "all stars" in the eyes of the analytics community.

You guys are so lost. VJ is small, Ace is a 6'10 SG who shot better from the field and 3 than VJ

Lets compare past SG prospects. Ace better from 3 and field than Anthony Edwards, Cade, Ja, I can go on and on

Don't Bother arguing or changing the opinions on Bailey to people....Some people here fall for a narrative thats been placed on some of the young kids by a few people that say "Hes just a chucker" without actually watching the games being played.

Bailey for his age clearly has amazing talents and can do things on the court not many players his age could ever do.....His offensive skills are unquestionable and will translate to the NBA fine....Ppl that say he could be a bust....He has way too much basketball skill to be considered a bust.....Maybe won't live up to the hype would be better term to use but bust ...No....

He already has a skill every GM is looking for to add to their team and thats a 3pt sniper.....Now add that he is 6"10 with a good handle, speed, athletic ability, 3 level scoring potential.

Most people are down on a player if they score 30 but only get you 2,3 assists as if him having 5-8assists really changes the outcome of the game rather then the 30 points he added to the scoreboard.....

[OakleyDokely]

If Ace was scoring efficiently, it would be a lot easier to justify the hype and overlook some of the negatives. But 46/34/69 splits on a 53 TS isn't a selling feature.

[PushDaRock]

People earlier this year were saying MPJ was Ace's floor, now it's looking more likely that would be closer to his ceiling.

[PushDaRock]

Historically the only similar freshman who overcame such a poor college FT% is Brandon Ingram but I'm not seeing the same guard skills in Ace plus Ingram's college 3pt% was better.

If Ace had shot 50/40/80 I probably would see him in a better light. But the fact remains that Ace isn't really a hooper, he's just a kid who is really talented at getting jumpshots off. Unfortunately jumpshot accuracy, ability to get to rim OTD, passing, defense, etc... collectively comprise more of what's important to be a top tier player.

Ultimately jumpshooting will only get you so far. Let's say his %s improve and he also becomes passable on D over time... his handle and ability to get by guys on ball and his passing are both so weak right now, there are just way too many things that need to go perfect for Ace which makes him a poor dart.

If all the things that need to go well for him come to fruition he's still only a JB type player and JB is one of the more controversial "all stars" in the eyes of the analytics community.

You guys are so lost. VJ is small, Ace is a 6'10 SG who shot better from the field and 3 than VJ

Lets compare past SG prospects. Ace better from 3 and field than Anthony Edwards, Cade, Ja, I can go on and on

Don't Bother arguing or changing the opinions on Bailey to people....Some people here fall for a narrative thats been placed on some of the young kids by a few people that say "Hes just a chucker" without actually watching the games being played.

Bailey for his age clearly has amazing talents and can do things on the court not many players his age could ever do.....His offensive skills are unquestionable and will translate to the NBA fine....Ppl that say he could be a bust....He has way too much basketball skill to be considered a bust.....Maybe won't live up to the hype would be better term to use but bust ...No....

He already has a skill every GM is looking for to add to their team and thats a 3pt sniper.....Now add that he is 6"10 with a good handle, speed, athletic ability, 3 level scoring potential.

Most people are down on a player if they score 30 but only get you 2,3 assists as if him having 5-8assists really changes the outcome of the game rather then the 30 points he added to the scoreboard.....

1.6 makes per game on 34.6% does not qualify as 3pt sniper to me, but maybe our definitions are different?

[Clutch0z24]

If Ace was scoring efficiently, it would be a lot easier to justify the hype and overlook some of the negatives. But 46/34/69 splits on a 53 TS isn't a selling feature.

So your gonna base your whole scouting of a 18 year old solely on stats and shooting percentages and ignore all the things hes actually doing on the court for the year....His size for the style of play, And his unquestionable offensive upside?....Seems silly to do....If you are going by the stat sheets alone....A player like T.J. McConnell who gets amazing stats in the mins he plays should be your go too guy....

Can't really judge college players and young players off stats and shooting percentages alone because for one its a short season so its a smaller sample size and two they are not even finished products yet....You have to also watch the games and go on the good you see and how much upside they have with the talents and things they already possess.....

Don't care what stats tell you...

Watch on YouTube

Watch this and you see a guy who obviously has amazing talents that can be worked on and get even better as development comes.

I see him doing things not many 18 year olds can do....But you and others want to go all in on stats as if GMs and scouts go only based on stats when drafting...

[Basketball_Jones]

A lot of love for Fears on here! Wouldn’t be mad at that pick if he somehow falls to us but really hoping we go big.

[OakleyDokely]

If Ace was scoring efficiently, it would be a lot easier to justify the hype and overlook some of the negatives. But 46/34/69 splits on a 53 TS isn't a selling feature.

So your gonna base your whole scouting of a 18 year old solely on stats and shooting percentages and ignore all the things hes actually doing on the court for the year....His size for the style of play, And his unquestionable offensive upside?....Seems silly to do....If you are going by the stat sheets alone....A player like T.J. McConnell who gets amazing stats in the mins he plays should be your go too guy....

Can't really judge college players and young players off stats and shooting percentages alone because for one its a short season so its a smaller sample size and two they are not even finished products yet....You have to also watch the games and go on the good you see and how much upside they have with the talents and things they already possess.....

Don't care what stats tell you...

Watch on YouTube

Watch this and you see a guy who obviously has amazing talents that can be worked on and get even better as development comes.

He's being compared to other freshman in the 2025 NBA draft, most of whom were able to be more efficient without all the other baggage

[Clutch0z24]

If Ace was scoring efficiently, it would be a lot easier to justify the hype and overlook some of the negatives. But 46/34/69 splits on a 53 TS isn't a selling feature.

So your gonna base your whole scouting of a 18 year old solely on stats and shooting percentages and ignore all the things hes actually doing on the court for the year....His size for the style of play, And his unquestionable offensive upside?....Seems silly to do....If you are going by the stat sheets alone....A player like T.J. McConnell who gets amazing stats in the mins he plays should be your go too guy....

Can't really judge college players and young players off stats and shooting percentages alone because for one its a short season so its a smaller sample size and two they are not even finished products yet....You have to also watch the games and go on the good you see and how much upside they have with the talents and things they already possess.....

Don't care what stats tell you...

Watch on YouTube

Watch this and you see a guy who obviously has amazing talents that can be worked on and get even better as development comes.

He's being compared to other freshman in the 2025 NBA draft, most of whom were able to be more efficient without all the other baggage

And as of right now hes projected a top 3 pick?....Idk what baggage we are talking about but yeah if hes being compared to others according to most hes going top 3....Behind Flagg/Harper thats not a bad thing....In some drafts hes a 1st or 2nd pick....

[Son Goku 25]

I know he gets ignored but I wouldn't be shocked if Ace is right behind Cooper on the Raptors list.

[OakleyDokely]

So your gonna base your whole scouting of a 18 year old solely on stats and shooting percentages and ignore all the things hes actually doing on the court for the year....His size for the style of play, And his unquestionable offensive upside?....Seems silly to do....If you are going by the stat sheets alone....A player like T.J. McConnell who gets amazing stats in the mins he plays should be your go too guy....

Can't really judge college players and young players off stats and shooting percentages alone because for one its a short season so its a smaller sample size and two they are not even finished products yet....You have to also watch the games and go on the good you see and how much upside they have with the talents and things they already possess.....

Don't care what stats tell you...

Watch on YouTube

Watch this and you see a guy who obviously has amazing talents that can be worked on and get even better as development comes.

He's being compared to other freshman in the 2025 NBA draft, most of whom were able to be more efficient without all the other baggage

And as of right now hes projected a top 3 pick?....Idk what baggage we are talking about but yeah if hes being compared to others according to most hes going top 3....Behind Flagg/Harper thats not a bad thing....In some drafts hes a 1st or 2nd pick....

I posted my list, not where I think Ace will be drafted.

[OakleyDokely]

I know he gets ignored but I wouldn't be shocked if Ace is right behind Cooper on the Raptors list.

His metrics are pretty poor. I'm not sure if IBM Watson would approve.