Around The NBA : 2024-25 Season

[WesPeace]

Well, the West is still a gauntlet. Seeds 5-8 are 1 win apart with about 7 games left, so whoever has the tougher schedule and crappier play is going to have a rough time falling to play-in.

The other dumb thing about play-in is when there’s a huge gap between 8 and 9. Why do the 37-win Mavs get a life-line against the 43-win Clippers? If the 9-seed is that many games behind, the play-in seeds should be eliminated entirely. They’re pretty much mathematically eliminated from having a shot at #8.

#8-seed is 1-win away from #5 seed, but instead they have to waste their time playing extra games against crappy teams that have zero chance of surpassing their record- problem is in an elimination game, 1 bad shooting night or injury could screw everything up.

Exactly! I think 3 wins difference should be already enough to have some cut off and no play in match!

5-6 games difference is very unfair to even have a matchup and then better team has off night, worse team have good night and voila..

[Jcool0]

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[Ice Man]

In just over 5 years we went from "the future is super teams" that depend on one or more superstar FAs - Heatles, Warriors + Durant, Toronto + Kawhi, then supposedly the Nets -- to having the 3 true contenders this year built almost entirely by draft/trade. Not a superstar FA among them.

I think that's cool. Super teams were boring/annoying; it's good to see that construction taking its lumps. Oh and yes, this year's OKC team is remarkable.

[kodo]

It's hard to build a contender through cap space now because KD was probably the last of truly elite big name FAs to literally walk away from his team for nothing. If a team now even sniffs a possibility you might leave, they'll trade anyone. It used to be that it was unfathomable to trade these big names, but no longer even Luka got traded before he got a chance to leave Dallas.

So now teams to get that upcoming FA superstar always have to pay in trade, and the assets are crippling. Phoenix is going to be cited over & over again. I was still shocked how fast Sacramento dumped Fox. One week he said he's not sure about the future, 2 weeks later he's a Spur. This was the guy why Sacramento didn't pick Luka.

[drosestruts]

MVP race is interesting to examine with all the simaltaneous, never-ending, tanking or no tanking talk going on.

NBA.com has the MVP Race as:

SGA - 11th overall pick
Jokic - 41st overall
Giannis - 15th overall
Tatum - 3rd overall
LeBron - 1st overall
Donovan Mitchell - 12th overall
Steph Curry - 7th overall
Cade Cunningham - 1st overall
Evan Mobley - 3rd overall
Sengun - 16th overall

[MrSparkle]

Yes, OKC’s success was entirely built on successful trading:

Ibaka for Sabonis & Oladipo (what!?)

Sabonis & Oladipo for PG13 (fair/good trade, good timing)

PG13 for Shai, Gallo, grand total of 7 FRPs/swaps (1 of whom became J.Williams… otherwise a decent but replaceable cast)

The one tank pick that mattered was Chet, but hey, losing him hardly mattered this season (although he’s a big deal).

I am a believer in fleecing bad/desperate GMs when those rare opportunities come around. Of course we were the victims of buying Vuc for what became Orlando’s steroid boost back into the playoffs.

You had PHX, NYK, make some questionable and costly trades the last few deadlines… although we need to admit that Zach and Demar were never a PG13 type of chip.

But winning every trade is important. AK’s had a solid year after 3 bad ones. Anyway, Shai is ultimately the most important player in the timeline. You have to somehow put yourself in positions to find such a guy. In hindsight (..), trading for Vuc is not it.

[Repeat 3-peat]

The Kings are going to blow it up this Summer for sure, while being stuck with LaVine's contract.

[Indomitable]

MVP race is interesting to examine with all the simaltaneous, never-ending, tanking or no tanking talk going on.

NBA.com has the MVP Race as:

SGA - 11th overall pick
Jokic - 41st overall
Giannis - 15th overall
Tatum - 3rd overall
LeBron - 1st overall
Donovan Mitchell - 12th overall
Steph Curry - 7th overall
Cade Cunningham - 1st overall
Evan Mobley - 3rd overall
Sengun - 16th overall

How is LeBron over Mitchell

[DASMACKDOWN]

The Kings are going to blow it up this Summer for sure, while being stuck with LaVine's contract.

That was a terrible loss by the Kings to Washington.

The Kings are lucky that that Suns are even worse and have a much harder remaining schedule.

They dont have to necessarily blow everything up though. They did get a good draft haul for Fox. So they could either decide to start building now with it or trade some of that and another guy for someone else.

[sco]

The Kings are going to blow it up this Summer for sure, while being stuck with LaVine's contract.

That was a terrible loss by the Kings to Washington.

The Kings are lucky that that Suns are even worse and have a much harder remaining schedule.

They dont have to necessarily blow everything up though. They did get a good draft haul for Fox. So they could either decide to start building now with it or trade some of that and another guy for someone else.

From a value perspective they still won the Fox trade. Unfortunately, they'll have a hard time dumping Zach's contract or Demar's. They may be able to get value for Sabonis (just hope it isn't to us!).

Murray would be a guy I'd want to try to get. He's very good but has fallen too far down the pecking order there. I wonder if they'd do a deal for Ball or Ayo plus Phillips for him?

[drosestruts]

MVP race is interesting to examine with all the simaltaneous, never-ending, tanking or no tanking talk going on.

NBA.com has the MVP Race as:

SGA - 11th overall pick
Jokic - 41st overall
Giannis - 15th overall
Tatum - 3rd overall
LeBron - 1st overall
Donovan Mitchell - 12th overall
Steph Curry - 7th overall
Cade Cunningham - 1st overall
Evan Mobley - 3rd overall
Sengun - 16th overall

How is LeBron over Mitchell

Not my rankings - just took this from nba.com

[Ice Man]

On a side note, I looked at the 10 teams last season that did not make the play-in, calculating their collective winning percentages before the All Star break and afterwards -

Before - 30.4%
After - 30.3%

Those figures don't seem to indicate that the league has a major problem with tanking, as is often alleged.

[DuckIII]

On a side note, I looked at the 10 teams last season that did not make the play-in, calculating their collective winning percentages before the All Star break and afterwards -

Before - 30.4%
After - 30.3%

Those figures don't seem to indicate that the league has a major problem with tanking, as is often alleged.

I think the flattened lottery odds and play in (which will always be an abomination to me) have more or less destroyed tanking as an annual, widespread strategy the way it used to be.

But it will still happen (with many teams doing it at once I mean) when the circumstances are right. This year it’s been one of the most obvious I’ve ever seen regardless of the rules in place at the time, for example. I expect something similar next year.

[jnrjr79]

On a side note, I looked at the 10 teams last season that did not make the play-in, calculating their collective winning percentages before the All Star break and afterwards -

Before - 30.4%
After - 30.3%

Those figures don't seem to indicate that the league has a major problem with tanking, as is often alleged.

I think the flattened lottery odds and play in (which will always be an abomination to me) have more or less destroyed tanking as an annual, widespread strategy the way it used to be.

But it will still happen (with many teams doing it at once I mean) when the circumstances are right. This year it’s been one of the most obvious I’ve ever seen regardless of the rules in place at the time, for example. I expect something similar next year.

Relatedly, the Sixers just shut down Maxey.

[kodo]

Yes, OKC’s success was entirely built on successful trading:

Ibaka for Sabonis & Oladipo (what!?)

Sabonis & Oladipo for PG13 (fair/good trade, good timing)

PG13 for Shai, Gallo, grand total of 7 FRPs/swaps (1 of whom became J.Williams… otherwise a decent but replaceable cast)

The one tank pick that mattered was Chet, but hey, losing him hardly mattered this season (although he’s a big deal).

I am a believer in fleecing bad/desperate GMs when those rare opportunities come around. Of course we were the victims of buying Vuc for what became Orlando’s steroid boost back into the playoffs.

You had PHX, NYK, make some questionable and costly trades the last few deadlines… although we need to admit that Zach and Demar were never a PG13 type of chip.

But winning every trade is important. AK’s had a solid year after 3 bad ones. Anyway, Shai is ultimately the most important player in the timeline. You have to somehow put yourself in positions to find such a guy. In hindsight (..), trading for Vuc is not it.

Presti is great because he hits every possible method for talent acquistion and his team is a great example of doing everything and not putting all your hopes on just 1 bet, whether it's winning the lottery or a vet FA.

SGA - trade for player
Jalen - trade for mid pick
Chet - tanking for high pick
Lu Dort - 2 way
Hartenstein - Free Agency

[Ice Man]

Relatedly, the Sixers just shut down Maxey.

I guess technically that's tanking, but it's damn near pointless. The Sixers have won 2 more games than the Pelicans and 2 fewer than the Nets, meaning that they're very likely locked into their current draft slot (#5), given that only 6 games remain. Maxey or no Maxey, they will probably lose at least 4 of those 6, as will the Pelicans and Nets.

And even if they do change positions, then what? The #5 slot has a 10.5% chance of getting the 1st pick, the #4 slot has a 12.5% chance. Thus, benching Maxey has a slight chance -- only slight -- of giving the Sixers an additional 2% chance at the Flagg sweepstakes.

Whoop-de-doo.

[Dan Z]

Relatedly, the Sixers just shut down Maxey.

I guess technically that's tanking, but it's damn near pointless. The Sixers have won 2 more games than the Pelicans and 2 fewer than the Nets, meaning that they're very likely locked into their current draft slot (#5), given that only 6 games remain. Maxey or no Maxey, they will probably lose at least 4 of those 6, as will the Pelicans and Nets.

And even if they do change positions, then what? The #5 slot has a 10.5% chance of getting the 1st pick, the #4 slot has a 12.5% chance. Thus, benching Maxey has a slight chance -- only slight -- of giving the Sixers an additional 2% chance at the Flagg sweepstakes.

Whoop-de-doo.

One thing it does is keep Maxey from getting even more hurt than he is.

The other thing is that their pick is protected 1-6 (otherwise it goes to OKC). I bet either way they would've kept it, but you never know.

[MrSparkle]

It would be hilarious if Sixers dropped to 7 and handed it to OKC.

[rosenthall]

Yes, OKC’s success was entirely built on successful trading:

Ibaka for Sabonis & Oladipo (what!?)

Sabonis & Oladipo for PG13 (fair/good trade, good timing)

PG13 for Shai, Gallo, grand total of 7 FRPs/swaps (1 of whom became J.Williams… otherwise a decent but replaceable cast)

The one tank pick that mattered was Chet, but hey, losing him hardly mattered this season (although he’s a big deal).

I am a believer in fleecing bad/desperate GMs when those rare opportunities come around. Of course we were the victims of buying Vuc for what became Orlando’s steroid boost back into the playoffs.

You had PHX, NYK, make some questionable and costly trades the last few deadlines… although we need to admit that Zach and Demar were never a PG13 type of chip.

But winning every trade is important. AK’s had a solid year after 3 bad ones. Anyway, Shai is ultimately the most important player in the timeline. You have to somehow put yourself in positions to find such a guy. In hindsight (..), trading for Vuc is not it.

I think there are two useful takeaway points in all of this:

- Stupid trades are much more likely to happen during regime changes. Ownership changes especially (Prokhorov, Ballmer, Adelsons), but new GM's as well (We have some proof of that around here.....). If you're an opportunistic GM you absolutely have to keep your eyes open for these chances.

- Tanking is a viable strategy, but you have to go into them with momentum. Houston's tank was accelerated with the Harden trade. OKC greatly accelerated their tank with the Paul George trade. The foundation of the Celtics today came from the Garnett / Pierce trade. And so on. If you don't start your tank with a kitty of picks and players from previously accumulated assets it could take a decade for the process to come full cycle and no organization has the stamina for that.

I think the latter point is relevant for this team, because the Bulls face a similar choice with Coby and Giddey. They're both good and young enough to have some regular season success, but Coby in particular is going to quickly hit his lifetime peak in trade value this offseason. Whether or not to re-tool with them depends on their trade value and upcoming contracts, but the choice needs to be made this offseason.

[Ice Man]

It would be hilarious if Sixers dropped to 7 and handed it to OKC.

As Toronto is in the #7 spot, and has 5 more win than Philly with 5 games left, that ain't happening. A funny idea, though.