2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[sp6r=underrated]

NBA MOV since 1996 trendlines. The data is the number of games per season that meets the criteria (0-5 Points, 20+ Points, 30+ Points, 40+ Points). I didn't pro-rate for lockouts/COVID.

In the last half decade there has been a marked increase in the number of blowouts.



The ratio between close games and blowouts is shrinking significantly.



Obviously pace is a factor but I think this is primarily the 3 point shot. It is a high variance shot so it leads to more opportunities for blowouts.

Data below

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Season     0-5 Points    20 Point Wins     30 Point Wins     40 Point Wins
1996         342               181                40               6
1997           338               165            36               8
1998           309               173            35               4
1999           201               75            16               3
2000         348               171                33               6
2001           336               161            29               1
2002           344               161            40               6
2003           339               177            28               6
2004           335               151            23               2
2005         364               145                28               1
2006           366               151            32               2
2007         373               167                31               5
2008         315               205                40               8
2009         341               174                34               7
2010         314               170                39               4
2011         353               151                35               8
2012         281               149                35               4
2013         325               183                41               5
2014         333               177                39               6
2015         335               175                41               5
2016         338               175                35               7
2017         333               191                49               9
2018         339               168                40               10
2019         335               225                56               7
2020         279               177                40               12
2021         292               205                59               12
2022         309               232                79               15 
2023         339               192                46               11
2024         287               235                77               22
2025         295               235                70               21

[parsnips33]

For a 40 year old 6 foot point guard, CP3's numbers look excellent this year

[ShotCreator]

NBA MOV since 1996 trendlines. The data is the number of games per season that meets the criteria (0-5 Points, 20+ Points, 30+ Points, 40+ Points). I didn't pro-rate for lockouts/COVID.

In the last half decade there has been a marked increase in the number of blowouts.



The ratio between close games and blowouts is shrinking significantly.



Obviously pace is a factor but I think this is primarily the 3 point shot. It is a high variance shot so it leads to more opportunities for blowouts.

Data below

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Season     0-5 Points    20 Point Wins     30 Point Wins     40 Point Wins
1996         342               181                40               6
1997           338               165            36               8
1998           309               173            35               4
1999           201               75            16               3
2000         348               171                33               6
2001           336               161            29               1
2002           344               161            40               6
2003           339               177            28               6
2004           335               151            23               2
2005         364               145                28               1
2006           366               151            32               2
2007         373               167                31               5
2008         315               205                40               8
2009         341               174                34               7
2010         314               170                39               4
2011         353               151                35               8
2012         281               149                35               4
2013         325               183                41               5
2014         333               177                39               6
2015         335               175                41               5
2016         338               175                35               7
2017         333               191                49               9
2018         339               168                40               10
2019         335               225                56               7
2020         279               177                40               12
2021         292               205                59               12
2022         309               232                79               15 
2023         339               192                46               11
2024         287               235                77               22
2025         295               235                70               21

I’ve suspected this but it’s good to see data confirmation.

I wonder how much that changes what okc has done compared to past teams.

[sp6r=underrated]

NBA MOV since 1996 trendlines. The data is the number of games per season that meets the criteria (0-5 Points, 20+ Points, 30+ Points, 40+ Points). I didn't pro-rate for lockouts/COVID.

In the last half decade there has been a marked increase in the number of blowouts.



The ratio between close games and blowouts is shrinking significantly.



Obviously pace is a factor but I think this is primarily the 3 point shot. It is a high variance shot so it leads to more opportunities for blowouts.

Data below

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Season     0-5 Points    20 Point Wins     30 Point Wins     40 Point Wins
1996         342               181                40               6
1997           338               165            36               8
1998           309               173            35               4
1999           201               75            16               3
2000         348               171                33               6
2001           336               161            29               1
2002           344               161            40               6
2003           339               177            28               6
2004           335               151            23               2
2005         364               145                28               1
2006           366               151            32               2
2007         373               167                31               5
2008         315               205                40               8
2009         341               174                34               7
2010         314               170                39               4
2011         353               151                35               8
2012         281               149                35               4
2013         325               183                41               5
2014         333               177                39               6
2015         335               175                41               5
2016         338               175                35               7
2017         333               191                49               9
2018         339               168                40               10
2019         335               225                56               7
2020         279               177                40               12
2021         292               205                59               12
2022         309               232                79               15 
2023         339               192                46               11
2024         287               235                77               22
2025         295               235                70               21

I’ve suspected this but it’s good to see data confirmation.

I wonder how much that changes what okc has done compared to past teams.

Like you, I assumed the super blowout has been increasing. When I was a kid you just didn't see these massive 40+ demolition jobs. I was surprised to see how narrow the difference is between close game and 20+. And this is something the NBA should monitor if they aren't already.

[RCM88x]

I actually think a decrease in the number of games would help the 3pt "issue", teams wouldn't be able to just stand back and shoot as much if the games actually ment something and players could properly prepare for games.

[sp6r=underrated]

I actually think a decrease in the number of games would help the 3pt "issue", teams wouldn't be able to just stand back and shoot as much if the games actually ment something and players could properly prepare for games.

I don't think this fixes either 3par if you think that is an issue or meaningless RS games. The 3par in the post-season is just as high as the RS. And if you shorten the RS to 50 games, the RS is still meaningless.

The issue with the NBA is too many teams make the post-season and the series are too long. No decent team is at risk for missing the post-season so no team particularly cares much about individual RS games. And since the series are so long, upsets are super rare. As a result lot of fans prefer tanking over making the post-season as a 45 win team, they know team like that have almost 0 shot at a title.

If the NBA played 82 games but only had 7 teams make the playoffs, 1st seed getting a bye, and the playoff series being best of 3s you'd have way more competitive RS games.

Not saying you should do this as part of the thrill of an NBA championship is how hard it is to get. Just saying if you want to make RS games meaningful shrinking the RS doesn't do it. It is primarily the length of the post-season that makes the RS meaningless.

[Peregrine01]

Draymond Green.

[parsnips33]

Draymond Green.

Talk to em

[parsnips33]

That one was for Nico

[jalengreen]

Luka disasterclass, Draymond is insane, LeBron v Curry is still peak basketball somehow. Good game

[TheGOATRises007]

The Warriors have become a sneaky contender with Butler.

I didn't think they'd be this good with him despite liking the trade for them.

[Special_Puppy]

Where does Dort's reputation as a super elite defender (as opposed to merely a good one) come from? His impact and hybrid stats generally don't show him close to that level
D-DPM: +0.96
Expected D-EPM: +0.9
D-LEBRON: +0.8
X-D-RAPM: +0.7
3-Year D-RAPM (on X-RAPM dot com): +0.5
Time-Decay D-RAPM (B-Ball Index): +0.56
3-Year D-RAPM on NBARAPM.com -0.5
My personal multi-year composite of advanced stats updated through 2023 (out of date): +0.2

[The High Cyde]

They need to bubble wrap Curry until the playoffs, man might have to live life without a tailbone at the rate he’s falling on it, looks painful af

[Special_Puppy]

Why are NBA players obsessed with how someone would do one on one?

[sp6r=underrated]

Why are NBA players obsessed with how someone would do one on one?

Why are you obsessed with making predictions?

the reason is the same.

[jalengreen]

Why are NBA players obsessed with how someone would do one on one?

I'm guessing that many of them view the sport as a series of 1-on-1 matchups, like how baseball consists of batter/pitcher interactions. It's easy to see why they might have this on-court mindset. It's the low hanging fruit way to view the sport, and I often find myself thinking like this when I'm playing. "This guy is guarding me, I want to win this matchup on this possession" or "I'm guarding this guy, I have to make sure he doesn't beat me on this possession."

Alternative mindsets, such as Draymond's defensively...

He [Draymond] doesn’t want to win matchups; he wants to disrupt whole schemes. He doesn’t see his battle with the players on the court but with the aim of what they want to accomplish.

“Every offense in the NBA is built to put (defensive) players in a rotation,” Green said. “So if I know that, and I know the rotation … if I see that y’all are doing this or y’all (are) doing this to get to that? Great. I’m going to stand right there and f— this whole play up.

..., do not come as naturally. and are thus less common.

Anyway, when 1-on-1 matchups are how you view the sport at a micro level on the court, it follows that your experience in those many 1-on-1 matchups are going to shape how you view different players.

[tsherkin]

Why are NBA players obsessed with how someone would do one on one?

I'm guessing that many of them view the sport as a series of 1-on-1 matchups, like how baseball consists of batter/pitcher interactions. It's easy to see why they might have this on-court mindset. It's the low hanging fruit way to view the sport, and I often find myself thinking like this when I'm playing. "This guy is guarding me, I want to win this matchup on this possession" or "I'm guarding this guy, I have to make sure he doesn't beat me on this possession."

It is, however, super short-sighted. Not surprising given the general American approach to basketball, of course, but it certainly doesn't reflect the way the best offenses in the NBA have run. It appeals to the ego, though, which is another reason it's a common view. It's a very playground-y mentality.

[itsxtray]

Why are NBA players obsessed with how someone would do one on one?

I'm guessing that many of them view the sport as a series of 1-on-1 matchups, like how baseball consists of batter/pitcher interactions. It's easy to see why they might have this on-court mindset. It's the low hanging fruit way to view the sport, and I often find myself thinking like this when I'm playing. "This guy is guarding me, I want to win this matchup on this possession" or "I'm guarding this guy, I have to make sure he doesn't beat me on this possession."

It is, however, super short-sighted. Not surprising given the general American approach to basketball, of course, but it certainly doesn't reflect the way the best offenses in the NBA have run. It appeals to the ego, though, which is another reason it's a common view. It's a very playground-y mentality.

Players generally only bring it up when they're talking about the best scorers or players but they understand that winning at a high level is 5 on 5. So the "American approach" however you wanna define that doesn't affect team basketball.

[tsherkin]

Players generally only bring it up when they're talking about the best scorers or players but they understand that winning at a high level is 5 on 5. So the "American approach" however you wanna define that doesn't affect team basketball.

I mean, no. That hasn't been true. There are examples to the contrary, but there is a very real legacy from misunderstanding Jordan to And-1 and Rucker Park and all that stuff. You could definitely see it in the 2000s and 2010s, and there are very much still guys like that in the league today.

[parsnips33]

I'm sorry but nobody should be getting fined for finger guns

One of the most iconic hand gestures in the American lexicon