Playoff Race and Scoreboard Watching

[winforlose]

If we knew we would win out then who we cheer for is very different than if we are gonna go 3-1 and especially if we are gonna go 2-2. For instance, 4-0 Wolves are rooting for Denver to keep winning. 3-1 Wolves are rooting for Denver to drop 1 more. Same with the Clippers. 2-2 Wolves hate everyone and cheers for the meteor.

[Ethomasp31]

A little interesting side note

If you need to watch a game on Monday, if DET loses at home to the Kings on Monday, it obviously helps secure our pick.

But it also pushes them 1.5 games behind MIL, vs only 0.5. The result of this game may help determine whether the Bucks see beating us as critical or not. Interestingly, they are scheduled to face DET for Games 81 and 82, with the 5th seed at stake.

Plus it helps bury the Mavs in 10th. Which in turn puts more pressure on the Mavs to defeat LAL and help us secure 3rd.

I'm not counting on passing the LAL to get the 3rd seed now, but here is something that is crazy. The LAL play Tuesday @ OKC and then @ Dallas on Wednesday. Think of how messed up it would be if they lost both games to fall to 32 losses also heading into the weekend.

[Ethomasp31]

If we knew we would win out then who we cheer for is very different than if we are gonna go 3-1 and especially if we are gonna go 2-2. For instance, 4-0 Wolves are rooting for Denver to keep winning. 3-1 Wolves are rooting for Denver to drop 1 more. Same with the Clippers. 2-2 Wolves hate everyone and cheers for the meteor.

Well probably cheer for all the teams to lose going into the weekend. Friday morning we will know who to cheer for...

[Loaf_of_bread]

Can not escape 7th.. lol

[TimberKat]

Right now we control the 5th seed if we win out since we will play MEM, GSW plays LAC, and had tiebreaker over DEN. It seems being 6th is better than 5th, as NBA doesn't reseed. The strange thing is we are likely be 4th, 5th, or 8th.

[winforlose]

A little interesting side note

If you need to watch a game on Monday, if DET loses at home to the Kings on Monday, it obviously helps secure our pick.

But it also pushes them 1.5 games behind MIL, vs only 0.5. The result of this game may help determine whether the Bucks see beating us as critical or not. Interestingly, they are scheduled to face DET for Games 81 and 82, with the 5th seed at stake.

Plus it helps bury the Mavs in 10th. Which in turn puts more pressure on the Mavs to defeat LAL and help us secure 3rd.

I'm not counting on passing the LAL to get the 3rd seed now, but here is something that is crazy. The LAL play Tuesday @ OKC and then @ Dallas on Wednesday. Think of how messed up it would be if they lost both games to fall to 32 losses also heading into the weekend.

The question is do you throw the OKC game to rest everyone for Dallas. If you do then you need to win 2 of 3 against Dallas, Houston, and Portland. If you don’t and lose anyway, then you are truly exhausted and still need to win 2 of the 3. Also this is Luka’s first game back in Dallas since the trade, and AD’s first game against Bron. I could see the OKC game being a rest everyone and take the L.

[winforlose]

Right now we control the 5th seed if we win out since we will play MEM, GSW plays LAC, and had tiebreaker over DEN. It seems being 6th is better than 5th, as NBA doesn't reseed. The strange thing is we are likely be 4th, 5th, or 8th.

Our primary path to the 8th seed is losing while other teams win. I would 6th or 7th is far more likely than 8th as of this moment. But we will know a lot more on Thursday.

[Domejandro]

This is absolutely ridiculous.

[younggunsmn]

Going to be a crazy finish.
Bad losses to Washington, Utah, Indiana, and NO really really hurting us right now.

The Warriors getting pulled into multi-team tiebreakers really helps the Clippers.
The Nuggets and Clippers getting pulled into tiebreakers helps us.
Memphis getting pulled into tiebreakers hurts us.
Lakers getting pulled into tiebreakers hurts us.

If we win out, we will pass Memphis, at a minimum tie Denver, pass the loser of GSW/Clippers, and win a 3 team tiebreaker against either, win a 2 team tiebreaker with LAC, and lose a 2 team tiebreaker with GSW.

So in that scenario we are either 4 or 5 seed.

If we lose to Memphis and win the rest, we need one more loss by Denver or Memphis and for the Warriors to beat the Clippers and then we win a 3 team tiebreaker.
If the Clippers beat the Warriors and win out, we really need to end up tied with Denver so we can drag our 4-0 record against them into a multi team tiebreaker.

If we beat Memphis and finish out 3-1, we need to finish out of the bottom 2 in a 3+ team tiebreaker scenario.
Or an additional Memphis loss plus 2 losses by Denver, GSW or LAC.
Or an additional Memphis loss plus not coming out last in a tiebreaker scenario.

If we finish 2-2, it's probably play-in time unless a couple other teams completely choke.

We could catch a break if Giannis sits again like he did tonight.
The Bucks last 2 games are against Detroit to determine who is seeded 5th and who is 6th, and they may want to save him for those games.

Houston has also clinched a 2 or 3 seed.
Their last 3 are @LAC, @LAL, and DEN at home.
3 huge games for us.

Do they start sitting players?
Hopefully not.

[younggunsmn]

This is a year where the play-in makes me sick to my stomach.
There will be 2 teams in the West who would have finished 4th or 5th in the East, who finished 8-10 games over the 9th and 10th place teams, who are going to have to play single elimination games just to get into the playoffs.

If the league is going to continue the play-in, they should just eliminate conference restrictions and go to a 16 team seeded bracket where the top 14 teams are guaranteed spots with the next 6 playing a play-in tournament for the last 2 spots.

15-16 play for one spot,

17-20 play 2 games for the right to play the loser of 15-16 for the other spot.
Or maybe you only go as deep as 17-18 and they play one game.


If they don't want to go strict conferences,
They can seed the top 12 teams by conference on each side of the bracket (6 each)

Teams finishing 13th and 14th in the standings will be seeded as wild cards as the 7th seed on each side of the bracket, and the play-n teams seeded 8th on each side of the bracket.

But I like just smashing the conference boundaries better altogether, although it runs the risk of having 2 teams from the same geographic area in the Finals, which is something the league would want to avoid.

[winforlose]

This is a year where the play-in makes me sick to my stomach.
There will be 2 teams in the West who would have finished 4th or 5th in the East, who finished 8-10 games over the 9th and 10th place teams, who are going to have to play single elimination games just to get into the playoffs.

If the league is going to continue the play-in, they should just eliminate conference restrictions and go to a 16 team seeded bracket where the top 14 teams are guaranteed spots with the next 6 playing a play-in tournament for the last 2 spots.

15-16 play for one spot,

17-20 play 2 games for the right to play the loser of 15-16 for the other spot.
Or maybe you only go as deep as 17-18 and they play one game.


If they don't want to go strict conferences,
They can seed the top 12 teams by conference on each side of the bracket (6 each)

Teams finishing 13th and 14th in the standings will be seeded as wild cards as the 7th seed on each side of the bracket, and the play-n teams seeded 8th on each side of the bracket.

But I like just smashing the conference boundaries better altogether, although it runs the risk of having 2 teams from the same geographic area in the Finals, which is something the league would want to avoid.

We play 30 games against the weaker conference and 52 games against the stronger conference. If you drop the boundaries you will have a lot of West vs West championships. This is bad because A) it disengages fans (they see a matchup they may have seen four times already another 4-7, and don’t get to see Eastern conference teams as much, especially problematic for fans in the East,) and B) It proves wins in the East don’t mean as much. The Pistons for example would not be 45+ if they had to face the West 20+ more times.

[shrink]

Did we break the Nuggets again? With Russ’ help?

That’s four straight losses, (vs MIN, vs SAS, @GSW, vs IND)

[Klomp]

This is absolutely ridiculous.

It's honestly not that different from the last few seasons.

2023-24: Clippers, Mavericks, Suns and Pelicans all finished within just a two-game difference for 4th through 7th ahead of the play-in (New Orleans dropped to 8th in play-in).
2022-23: Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans finished within 2 games of each other for 5th through 9th (Pelicans dropped to 10th in play-in).

[Klomp]

Would you rather position yourself to face the Lakers or the Thunder in the second round?

[Klomp]

Meanwhile, in Denver land.....

Read on Twitter

[TimberKat]

Meanwhile, in Denver land.....

Read on Twitter

Their bench is extremely weak, so without Murray, they are a .500 team. That is basically the case with every team in the West. DAL without Kyrie, Suns without KD, ...

[Ethomasp31]

Here are the odds for seeding after yesterdays games...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

[winforlose]

Did we break the Nuggets again? With Russ’ help?

That’s four straight losses, (vs MIN, vs SAS, @GSW, vs IND)

I think Murray being out gets more credit

[winforlose]

Would you rather position yourself to face the Lakers or the Thunder in the second round?

I fear the Thunder if they get the SGA whistle. But I watched the refs swallow that whistle yesterday and the Thunder got killed. I believe we are favored in any game with honest officiating. But asking me would I rather they screw us to help Luka or SGA, I would rather they help Ant.

[Note30]

Would you rather position yourself to face the Lakers or the Thunder in the second round?

I rather we make it out of the first round so we can worry about the second.