GT: Raptors @ Nets 3:30pm (Sportsnet)

[tsherkin]

[
It's just some fans expecting the best case scenario as the actual result. There's always a worst case and best case scenario for every team and the truth is usually in the middle.

We can't do this exercise until we see how the draft and offseason shakes out. For now, 40 to 45 wins is my guess.

I mean, I'd love a 45-win season. It just seems a little out of reach based on where we're at now and what we'd generally need in order to be that successful, is all. If we strike gold in the draft, and/or make a meaningful off-season trade, lots of stuff could change between now and the start of the season, no doubt.

[Tor_Raps]

[
It's just some fans expecting the best case scenario as the actual result. There's always a worst case and best case scenario for every team and the truth is usually in the middle.

We can't do this exercise until we see how the draft and offseason shakes out. For now, 40 to 45 wins is my guess.

I mean, I'd love a 45-win season. It just seems a little out of reach based on where we're at now and what we'd generally need in order to be that successful, is all. If we strike gold in the draft, and/or make a meaningful off-season trade, lots of stuff could change between now and the start of the season, no doubt.

Ya it's just a waste of time guessing anything right now with so many factors that can change our outlook. Raptors are in a good position to make a consolidation trade so let's see.

[tsherkin]

Ya it's just a waste of time guessing anything right now with so many factors that can change our outlook. Raptors are in a good position to make a consolidation trade so let's see.

Indeed.

On the other hand, it IS pretty reasonable to feel optimistic that we'll have a better season, and that we might get into the first round, at least. So that's something.

[billy_hoyle]

i said what i said

I'm calling 45+ wins next year as the baseline. If we jump in the draft it could be higher. If we select Queen and he eats bench bigs in the second half of the year, it could be higher

So this year, we're net -4.4 team. 26th on O, 16th on D. -4.1 on O, +0.3 on D.

So let's say Ingram plays 75 games next year. Let's say we have a nice rotation where we manage to leverage Battle and Shead and Gradey and just everyone optimally.

Where does that take our offense? D probably won't change much, but let's say we flip to a -0.3 defense. Where does our O reach?

We're a 110.4 ORTG team this year. Let's say we get to 115. A 5-point swing in offense is pretty wild. That'd rank us 15th in the league and leave us with a +0.5 offense. So that'd take us from a -4.4 team to a +0.8 team, which would also be about 15th in the league, and this is assuming our D maintains when we aren't facing the softest schedule in the league, riddled with tanking squads and all that.

That projects us much more as a .500 team, around 39-42 wins as opposed to 45+. We'd need to make a fairly massive swing on offense while maintaining our D to get there. I think that's probably a little ambitious for a single-season turnaround without any super high-end talent inbound, no?

Next year's tanking will be worse. There will be alot of easy wins IMO.

All our players will be better next year. We have no age related regression candidates. A large portion of our rotation is getting rookie seasoning. System will be established for these guys next year.

IQ was a write off this year, as was BI. Probably two or our top 4 players.

I wouldn't take any of those numbers as indicative of future performance since our team was actively tanking the entire year.

[tsherkin]

All our players will be better next year. We have no age related regression candidates. A large portion of our rotation is getting rookie seasoning. System will be established for these guys next year.

IQ was a write off this year, as was BI. Probably two or our top 4 players.

I wouldn't take any of those numbers as indicative of future performance since our team was actively tanking the entire year.

Yes, and I'm factoring that into a shift to a +0.5 offense, which is a gargantuan shift from how we played this year.

[billy_hoyle]

All our players will be better next year. We have no age related regression candidates. A large portion of our rotation is getting rookie seasoning. System will be established for these guys next year.

IQ was a write off this year, as was BI. Probably two or our top 4 players.

I wouldn't take any of those numbers as indicative of future performance since our team was actively tanking the entire year.

Yes, and I'm factoring that into a shift to a +0.5 offense, which is a gargantuan shift from how we played this year.

A shift off of a baseline figure with no grounding in reality can't even be qualified. There is no 'gargantuan' shift. The baseline doesn't exist.

Basically the numbers are garbage, for the obvious reasons I already stated. Trash them and make projections on talent, fit and upcoming tanking landscape.

If you think we are going to actively try and lose next year. I've seen crazier things, so maybe there's some merit to that.

[tsherkin]

There is no 'gargantuan' shift. The baseline doesn't exist.

No, there's a clear shift from "being a crap offensive team" (even if it is for various reasons) and not being one. I see what you're saying, this team's performance isn't defined by the actual offensive output this season due to health and tanking and so forth, but that IS factored into what I said.

Basically the numbers are garbage, for the obvious reasons I already stated. Trash them and make projections on talent, fit and upcoming tanking landscape.

I did. That's why I projected a +0.5 offense. Health and incoming talent. I specifically said that. Multiple times now. You don't agree with me, fine, but I did say these things.

[billy_hoyle]

There is no 'gargantuan' shift. The baseline doesn't exist.

No, there's a clear shift from "being a crap offensive team" (even if it is for various reasons) and not being one. I see what you're saying, this team's performance isn't defined by the actual offensive output this season due to health and tanking and so forth, but that IS factored into what I said.

Basically the numbers are garbage, for the obvious reasons I already stated. Trash them and make projections on talent, fit and upcoming tanking landscape.

I did. That's why I projected a +0.5 offense. Health and incoming talent. I specifically said that. Multiple times now. You don't agree with me, fine, but I did say these things.

Detroit just went from
2024: O109 - D118 = Net -9, to
2025: O114.2 - D111.8 = Net +2.3
Looking like a 45 win team.

They added Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr and Tobias Harris... and a clear desire to win.

I think BI and Quick, coupled with an eye to actually win will have a big impact too.

[tsherkin]

Detroit just went from
2024: O109 - D118 = Net -9, to
2025: O114.2 - D111.8 = Net +2.3
Looking like a 45 win team.

They added Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr and Tobias Harris... and a clear desire to win.

I think BI and Quick, coupled with an eye to actually win will have a big impact too.

And they're a +0.2 offense in the process. Their improvement was very large on the defensive end. They went from a +3.5 defense to a -2.0 defense. That's a +5 improvement in their ORTG, which is roughly what I was projecting for Toronto, if you look at what I actually wrote