2025 Draft Thread

[payitforward]

5,5,4,2,6 -- not much better!

Down with Tankathon! Tankathon is rigged!

[The Consiglieri]

Kevin Sheehan on his podcast said Walter Clayton Jr has comps of Lillard and Steph Curry, and he's going to definitely go top 10 and possibly top 5!

Where's the evidence of any of that. He had a great tournament and he's a thousand years old. If he was Lillard or Curry, he wouldn't be getting drafted at age 22 after 4 years in school. Mega elite players go after there first year, second year at the latest. There's always a couple of idiot GM's, but we finally fired one the NBA could reliably trust to be present the past 40 years, so there's fewer than usual. The only kind of argument I could accept for this theory of his talent is the whole NIL, and Iona angle, but even that doesn't really play. He is a 4th year senior right now, playing primarily against players far younger than he is. I just flat out DO NOT BUY IT, even a little. The most recent mocks I've seen that are post NCAA and reasonably clued in, have Clayton going 1.25 and 1.28.

I see zero chance that he goes inside the top 5 or top 10. Who the hell is Kevin Sheehan and who slipped him meth?

[TheBlackCzar]

Kevin Sheehan on his podcast said Walter Clayton Jr has comps of Lillard and Steph Curry, and he's going to definitely go top 10 and possibly top 5!

Where's the evidence of any of that. He had a great tournament and he's a thousand years old. If he was Lillard or Curry, he wouldn't be getting drafted at age 22 after 4 years in school. Mega elite players go after there first year, second year at the latest. There's always a couple of idiot GM's, but we finally fired one the NBA could reliably trust to be present the past 40 years, so there's fewer than usual. The only kind of argument I could accept for this theory of his talent is the whole NIL, and Iona angle, but even that doesn't really play. He is a 4th year senior right now, playing primarily against players far younger than he is. I just flat out DO NOT BUY IT, even a little. The most recent mocks I've seen that are post NCAA and reasonably clued in, have Clayton going 1.25 and 1.28.

I see zero chance that he goes inside the top 5 or top 10. Who the hell is Kevin Sheehan and who slipped him meth?

Did you actually look at how old Steph and Dame where when they were drafted? Neither were drafted in the top 5, and neither was perceived as a sure thing... It actually took Steph several seasons before he began to blossom....... And if I'm not mistaken both went to school for 4 years........


I don't know who Clayton is and haven't watched him to say anything about him, but was just tripping off the irony of your post and the examples you used, because they literally did what you described Clayton as doing....

[DCZards]

Kevin Sheehan on his podcast said Walter Clayton Jr has comps of Lillard and Steph Curry, and he's going to definitely go top 10 and possibly top 5!

Where's the evidence of any of that. He had a great tournament and he's a thousand years old. If he was Lillard or Curry, he wouldn't be getting drafted at age 22 after 4 years in school. Mega elite players go after there first year, second year at the latest. There's always a couple of idiot GM's, but we finally fired one the NBA could reliably trust to be present the past 40 years, so there's fewer than usual. The only kind of argument I could accept for this theory of his talent is the whole NIL, and Iona angle, but even that doesn't really play. He is a 4th year senior right now, playing primarily against players far younger than he is. I just flat out DO NOT BUY IT, even a little. The most recent mocks I've seen that are post NCAA and reasonably clued in, have Clayton going 1.25 and 1.28.

I see zero chance that he goes inside the top 5 or top 10. Who the hell is Kevin Sheehan and who slipped him meth?

I agree that Sheehan doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Clayton is probably a late first round, early second round pick. Of course, I could be wrong about that.

But Damian Lillard did play 4yrs at Weber St. and was 22 when he was drafted, and Curry played 3yrs at Davidson and was 21yrs old when he entered the NBA.

[The Consiglieri]

Just heard an odd stat about Ace. He shot 44% on contested catch and shoot 3s but only 25% on open catch and shoot 3s.

Weird as hell, but I would chalk it down to just 136 3's shot in college. Bub shot more 3's than that last march alone. I tend to think if the sample size is small enough, and 136 isn't really that much, especially across 30ish games, you can occasionally find really weird silos of trends. As an example with Bub, he hit more 3's on April 3rd, than he hit in the 8 games between March 13th and March 26th combined. Kinda nutty, but it happened.

[The Consiglieri]

Well, no.... If he doesn't declare for the draft he's not in the draft & you can't pick him.

Okay you're right. I blanked on the early entry withdrawal deadline. My brain was way back in the Magic Bird era where players did get picked then return to school.

Though at that point there is no 'what do we do' scenario. Because he's not in the draft. We pick the next guy.

The question only comes after June 15, if he stays in the draft and doesn't want to play for the Wizards. And in that respect, what I said, you pick him then work out the details. Teams have all the leverage here.

That said. Imagine Brooklyn gets the #2. Would the Wiz trade back one spot for Harper if the Nets offered a package of the #2 plus a combo platter of this years 1RP's (they have 3 others) and next years lotto pick?

Or if the Spurs (2 picks this year and a high 2nd) luck into the #2.

It's less about what Flagg wants and more a question whether there is a package big enough that it would be a real choice whether to let him go. I don't think Ted would allow it, but as a mental exercise what deal would be too big to be passed up.

I don't think so because there's a lottery. This is a bird in the hand situation. If you land the 1.01, you don't keep it for a mystery lotto card, which could be heaven sent (top 3 pick in '26) or ashes (anything else).

I'd rather take Flagg, and take our chances with '26. We absolutely suck, we own a pick swap with one of the three teams that might choose to tank which didn't this year (Phoenix, Milwaukee, Philly) and as such are almost certain to lock up a bottom 4-5 finish at best, even with Flagg in tow. We need more than a Flagg to transform this roster, we need to hit in '25 and '26, or some other scenario involving the swaps and/or lottery luck in '27 and beyond. With that knowledge in tow, if we have luck next month in the lottery, I hold onto that luck with both hands and praise the heavens.

I get what you're saying: Is there a value add from a trade that trumps Flagg, and I'd say yes, if the NBA draft was like the NFL draft, but instead it has a lottery like the NHL and like MLB, and as a result, I simply don't want to mess around with luck and hope. We are the wizards, the team that consistently got screwed in every lottery that ever mattered the past 40 years that we participated in. Shaq '92, Webber '93, Kidd/Hill/Big Dog '94, Lebron '03, Zion/Morant in '19, Ant in '20, the loaded top heavy '21 and '22s, the Wemby lottery we missed by 1 number etc.

I would keep that #1 pick and run.

[The Consiglieri]

I tend to get 5 and 6 a lot which makes sense, as the odds say one of those 2 should show up about 47% of the time with our current slotting. Trying it now and:
5,4,5,2, 4. Blech, w/one exception, but at this point, if we avoid the two 5s in that scenario, i'd be happy with the two 4's and a 2.

[The Consiglieri]

Kevin Sheehan on his podcast said Walter Clayton Jr has comps of Lillard and Steph Curry, and he's going to definitely go top 10 and possibly top 5!

Where's the evidence of any of that. He had a great tournament and he's a thousand years old. If he was Lillard or Curry, he wouldn't be getting drafted at age 22 after 4 years in school. Mega elite players go after there first year, second year at the latest. There's always a couple of idiot GM's, but we finally fired one the NBA could reliably trust to be present the past 40 years, so there's fewer than usual. The only kind of argument I could accept for this theory of his talent is the whole NIL, and Iona angle, but even that doesn't really play. He is a 4th year senior right now, playing primarily against players far younger than he is. I just flat out DO NOT BUY IT, even a little. The most recent mocks I've seen that are post NCAA and reasonably clued in, have Clayton going 1.25 and 1.28.

I see zero chance that he goes inside the top 5 or top 10. Who the hell is Kevin Sheehan and who slipped him meth?

Did you actually look at how old Steph and Dame where when they were drafted? Neither were drafted in the top 5, and neither was perceived as a sure thing... It actually took Steph several seasons before he began to blossom....... And if I'm not mistaken both went to school for 4 years........


I don't know who Clayton is and haven't watched him to say anything about him, but was just tripping off the irony of your post and the examples you used, because they literally did what you described Clayton as doing....

Curry was the son of a former NBA player and didnt need the money, he was also a year younger, and came out after his Junior year. Secondarily, Steph's breakout season was his second at Davidson, his third season is probably why he slipped a little in the '09 draft, as both Davidson, and Curry himself, were not quite as good that year.

I think the best argument for Clayton is probably that he did declare for the '24 draft, then ended up changing his mind, but that's still after his third year, and in '24/'25, when the NBA is much more attuned to the critical nature of breakout age with players, avoiding overage prospects etc.

Lastly, I'd argue that Lillard and Curry were seen as much better prospects than Clayton Jr, period, like, always. The only thing they have in common in my view is that they were small school guys.

Interesting to note that Clayton was perceived as a better pro football prospect when he was 14-16 apparently? Would love to dig into that.

Any idea where Clayton was projected last year before he pulled his name out? I would assume 2nd round? or not at all?

[The Consiglieri]

Kevin Sheehan on his podcast said Walter Clayton Jr has comps of Lillard and Steph Curry, and he's going to definitely go top 10 and possibly top 5!

Where's the evidence of any of that. He had a great tournament and he's a thousand years old. If he was Lillard or Curry, he wouldn't be getting drafted at age 22 after 4 years in school. Mega elite players go after there first year, second year at the latest. There's always a couple of idiot GM's, but we finally fired one the NBA could reliably trust to be present the past 40 years, so there's fewer than usual. The only kind of argument I could accept for this theory of his talent is the whole NIL, and Iona angle, but even that doesn't really play. He is a 4th year senior right now, playing primarily against players far younger than he is. I just flat out DO NOT BUY IT, even a little. The most recent mocks I've seen that are post NCAA and reasonably clued in, have Clayton going 1.25 and 1.28.

I see zero chance that he goes inside the top 5 or top 10. Who the hell is Kevin Sheehan and who slipped him meth?

I agree that Sheehan doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Clayton is probably a late first round, early second round pick. Of course, I could be wrong about that.

But Damian Lillard did play 4yrs at Weber St. and was 22 when he was drafted, and Curry played 3yrs at Davidson and was 21yrs old when he entered the NBA.

I don't know why Lillard chose to do that, I don't know his background, i do know that Curry came from a wealthy ex-NBA family and flat out did not have any economic pressure at all and was coming off his best college season and a deep NCAA run, so maybe that's why, or maybe he got bad info on where he was projected? I don't think the situations are compatible.

Curry had zero pressure or need to come out, and the perception I had was his stock was super high in '08, but he chose not to come out anyway.

I have no clue what was going on with Lillard, I simply don't remember. In both cases these guys were small school guys, period.

Clayton JR was an Iona dude who transferred to Florida (NIL pay off?), probably in a bit to increase what was likely crap NBA stock (if dude is projected to go late first at best after this season, what was he projected to do after '22-'23/'23-'24, that's simply not close to Curry's story, I can't say where Lillard was projected after the '10-'11 season though, again, I have no idea.

Let me also add in general on this topic.

I'm not saying Michael Clayton Jr sucks. Dude just went from Iona 2 years ago, to leading a team through the NCAA tournament on his back and a title. Obviously he doesn't suck. The problem is the profile is a high risk, high bust rate profile, and you simply do not use top 5/10 draft capital on those profiles. You want to take a swing on him being the next overage prospect to become a star, that's fine, but you use draft capital outside the lottery when you've got regression trees w/prospects like say, rotoviz builds, you have to look at likely numerical outcomes within which a player fits, and a lot of the outcomes with Clayton's profile, actually a majority, lead to "bust". So use a pick in the 20-50 zone? Sure? Sounds like most scouts currently have him between 20th-35th. I don't have a problem with that, but in the top 5 and top 10, w/so many potential outcomes with his profile leading nowhere good, you have to look in another direction, unless you wish to trade down. If we traded down from the Memphis pick, I'd consider it (reject it because that's not how I would use that pick), but that's it.

Top 5-10 is just insane.

[doclinkin]

This is a bird in the hand situation. If you land the 1.01, you don't keep it for a mystery lotto card, which could be heaven sent (top 3 pick in '26) or ashes (anything else).

I'd rather take Flagg, and take our chances with '26. We absolutely suck, we own a pick swap with one of the three teams that might choose to tank which didn't this year (Phoenix, Milwaukee, Philly) and as such are almost certain to lock up a bottom 4-5 finish at best, even with Flagg in tow. We need more than a Flagg to transform this roster, we need to hit in '25 and '26, or some other scenario involving the swaps and/or lottery luck in '27 and beyond. With that knowledge in tow, if we have luck next month in the lottery, I hold onto that luck with both hands and praise the heavens.

I get what you're saying: Is there a value add from a trade that trumps Flagg, and I'd say yes, if the NBA draft was like the NFL draft, but instead it has a lottery like the NHL and like MLB, and as a result, I simply don't want to mess around with luck and hope. We are the wizards, the team that consistently got screwed in every lottery that ever mattered the past 40 years that we participated in. Shaq '92, Webber '93, Kidd/Hill/Big Dog '94, Lebron '03, Zion/Morant in '19, Ant in '20, the loaded top heavy '21 and '22s, the Wemby lottery we missed by 1 number etc.

I would keep that #1 pick and run.

Right. In the NBA one player makes all the difference. Especially if the guy is a two-way player who is good on both ends of the court. In this case you factor in his youth, he could be good for your team for a very long time.

Let alone the marketing boost he'd get if he turns out to be the Next Larry Bird, with all that entails.

Still the devil's advocate to that ^^ is carried in what you say: We need to hit in 25, 26, 27 .... etc. And Flagg is one guy. Any player can fall short of the hype, or catch an injury (knock wood) or whatever ill luck may happen. However if you spread your bet all around the roulette wheel, there is a chance you reap rewards over multiple years. Depends on the right trading partner. The Nets are rebuildling, they are sure to struggle for a few years. If you traded this years #1 for say 5 future unprotected picks, you may build not just a winner, but a dynasty. This under a CBA where it will become harder and harder to hold a winning team together. OKC has figured a model where they can constantly refresh their talent on the cheap by other teams' losses. We are following that model.

The trick is figuring out the package. Trading for Spurs picks (2 1st rounders) or Miami picks (2 1st rounders) plus future picks does not net you the same return, knowing they tend to be very smart about their build process and in the case of the Spurs already have a superstar on the come-up. And all depends on what happens in the lotto. If we got #1 is the drop off that stark from Flagg to Harper that no package would be worth the trade?

Depends on how you evaluate Flagg. If we were talking about Wemby. Or LeBron. Or Shaq. Or Olaujwon. Tim Duncan. You wouldn't think about it. Flagg is a nice player. Precocious. But not unstoppably dominant. He raises the competitive level of his team with high level play all over the court. But he's not also a freak athlete and a giant mismatch at his position. There's levels even to supposed 'generational' talents. He is one of the smartest players we have seen, that counts for a lot. Is that worth more than 3+ years of lottery picks? Double dipping with our own lotto combos?

[doclinkin]

Curry had zero pressure or need to come out, and the perception I had was his stock was super high in '08, but he chose not to come out anyway.

I recall the impression based on interviews that Curry wanted to workshop his game at the lead guard spot. He was seen as an undersized shooting guard, his good friend and point guard was graduating and he wanted to show teams that he could carry a team from the Point. Audition for a starting role, not a bench role as a substitute/6th man. He bet on himself. If his stock slid a bit, that's fine since he still went top 10 and did show teams he could run a team. Some part of it though had to do with his obsessive/perfectionist work ethic. He was not comfortable with the idea that he was only an offball player and needed some practice reps at the position he saw himself playing in the NBA. Smart as he is he knew he was not yet ready. In my mind that raised his stock. His numbers did take a hit because teams would load up to stop him. I recall the game where a scrub team from some Maryland school actually quintuple-teamed him the whole game. Sent all their players to stop him. And lost since he kept finding the open man.

[dckingsfan]

5,5,4,2,6 -- not much better!

Down with Tankathon! Tankathon is rigged!

I tend to get 5 and 6 a lot which makes sense, as the odds say one of those 2 should show up about 47% of the time with our current slotting. Trying it now and:
5,4,5,2, 4. Blech, w/one exception, but at this point, if we avoid the two 5s in that scenario, i'd be happy with the two 4's and a 2.

5, 6, 5, 5, 1 - I like that I got a 1!

[AFM]

I got first every time. You guys are scrubs.

[dckingsfan]

My take on if we get #1, we take Flagg - I don't believe he would opt out.

Then we shamelessly tank again and get a bottom four (guaranteeing us a bottom 8). All of our youngster contracts don't start coming due until '27-'28 sans Champagnie. We then off-load a few to get additional picks moving forward.

Goal is to start to be competitive in '27-'28. Flagg, '25 FRP, '26 FRP, and whomever works out among Sarr, Bub, George, Champagnie, AJ and Bilal. That is 9 youngsters. We need a #1 & #2 and the others that can develop to become serviceable starters.

No?

[nate33]

4, 4, 5, 1, 1

Man, I'm getting pretty good at this!

[J-Ves]

5 1 6 1 4

[Zonkerbl]

5, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1

yikes

[AFM]

Everytime I run the sim I just get a giant pop up that says #DDQ, anyone know what this means?

[Zonkerbl]

I don't think we tank next year. We have a solid 30 win team now, like it or not. Next question is how do you get to 60 wins and championship contention? Flagg is not getting us 30 wins.

I am never, ever going to get excited about a 49 win team ever, ever again. Fool me once, shame on me and all that.

Look at me all "us" and "we", I need to get my head examined

[dckingsfan]

Everytime I run the sim I just get a giant pop up that says #DDQ, anyone know what this means?

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