cupcakesnake wrote:winforlose wrote:cupcakesnake wrote:
6th feels pretty optimistic though. Due to the wall of tie breakers, we're now the most probably to fall to 8th (besides Denver maybe). 5, 6, and 7 are all firmly in play but everything is random. It's entirely plausible that 5 teams finish with 48 wins. The other 4 can all reach 50 by winning out, where we're now capped at 49.
The 4th quarter last night was frustrating. We ran the right schemes to shred a 2-3 zone (Naz cutting to the nail while Conley lured out the trap) but then we failed miserably at executing the simple passes to finish off the broken zone. It's not even like Milwaukee was playing hellacious defense. We just kept throwing the ball near their hands and they scrambled after we broke the zone.
That is bad math. If we beat Memphis and the two ranking teams we end at 33 losses. Either LAC or GSW must also add a 33 loss. Plus one of Memphis and Denver must lose a game. Could easily be 6th, even 5th depending on the Rockets. What we lost was the ability to climb to 3rd and the likelihood of being 4th. Each had its own advantages.
Which part of the math are you saying is bad?
I didn't say we couldn't reach 6, just that it felt optimistic. Mathematically, 6th is still our most likely seed (23.9%), but our combined chances of being 7 or 8 outweigh that at 36.2%. We also have a 31% chance of climbing into the 4/5. It's fair to point out we have a slightly higher % chance of clinching a top 6 seed.
I worry about the back to back (against beatable opponents), but wouldn't it be so wolfey of us to win those and then lose to Utah on the last day?
We have the tie breaker over Denver and LAC. Memphis is likely to end at 34 losses if we beat them. So that means MEM 8. Any loss by DEN or LAC, and we are auto 6 or higher. If you combine our odds at 5 (very possible,) with our odds at 6, I gotta believe they are competitive with our odds of 7 or 8 combined. We will get a ton of info tonight and then have most of the picture tomorrow.
