5th Seed Watch (was 6th Seed Watch)

[HiRez]

The Title should be renamed to 8th Seed Watch, no?

"8th Seed Watch (Formerly 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th Seed Watch)"

[statsman]

It's is starting to look like the original title should have been kept. Of course, lose to the Clippers on Sunday (or have a Spurs Redux with the Blazers tonight), and "8th Seed Watch" would be the final title of this thread.

[Twinkie defense]

Everything's gonna come down to Sunday vs. the Clippers.

Not if Kerr and team sleep walk on Portland. This has been done many times this season.

Then it doesn't matter.

When was the last time the Blazers beat the Warriors? The Warriors just seem like they have the Blazers' number. I'm predicting a blowout.

[Twinkie defense]

We win out and we’re still 6th

Not necessarily. There are ties that the Warriors would lose out on. For instance, if Minnesota wins out (not unlikely, they play Brooklyn and Utah) and the Warriors do the same, the Clips (assuming they beat Kings tonight), Warriors, and Wolves would tie, and Minnesota would own the tiebreaker. That puts them in 6th and and the Warriors 7th.

If Memphis beats Denver tonight, there could be a 4 or 5 team tie, all with 33 losses. Denver plays Houston (resting everybody) on Sunday, so tonight is a big game.

According to Slater, if the Warriors win out, the lowest they can finish is 6th.

[Twinkie defense]

We win out and we’re still 6th

Not necessarily. There are ties that the Warriors would lose out on. For instance, if Minnesota wins out (not unlikely, they play Brooklyn and Utah) and the Warriors do the same, the Clips (assuming they beat Kings tonight), Warriors, and Wolves would tie, and Minnesota would own the tiebreaker. That puts them in 6th and and the Warriors 7th.

If Memphis beats Denver tonight, there could be a 4 or 5 team tie, all with 33 losses. Denver plays Houston (resting everybody) on Sunday, so tonight is a big game.

According to Slater, if the Warriors win out, the lowest they can finish is 6th.

Read on Twitter

[statsman]

We win out and we’re still 6th

Not necessarily. There are ties that the Warriors would lose out on. For instance, if Minnesota wins out (not unlikely, they play Brooklyn and Utah) and the Warriors do the same, the Clips (assuming they beat Kings tonight), Warriors, and Wolves would tie, and Minnesota would own the tiebreaker. That puts them in 6th and and the Warriors 7th.

If Memphis beats Denver tonight, there could be a 4 or 5 team tie, all with 33 losses. Denver plays Houston (resting everybody) on Sunday, so tonight is a big game.

According to Slater, if the Warriors win out, the lowest they can finish is 6th.

Slater is correct. There are numerous possibilities involving the other four teams (Clippers, Nuggets, TWolves, Grizzlies) should the Warriors win out. But in each scenario, the Warriors are no worse than 6th.

Pick a scenario, and it can be explained why the Warriors are no worse than 6th if they win out (and most likely 6th).

[EvanZ]

We'll probably lose both so don't worry fellas.

[xdrta+]

We win out and we’re still 6th

Not necessarily. There are ties that the Warriors would lose out on. For instance, if Minnesota wins out (not unlikely, they play Brooklyn and Utah) and the Warriors do the same, the Clips (assuming they beat Kings tonight), Warriors, and Wolves would tie, and Minnesota would own the tiebreaker. That puts them in 6th and and the Warriors 7th.

If Memphis beats Denver tonight, there could be a 4 or 5 team tie, all with 33 losses. Denver plays Houston (resting everybody) on Sunday, so tonight is a big game.

According to Slater, if the Warriors win out, the lowest they can finish is 6th.

Yeah, he's probably right. I mistakenly was looking at the clippers, not Memphis, being in a 3 way tie with the Warriors and Minny, but the Warriors still end up in 6th.

[AirP.]

NBA.com has GS as the 6th seed with the same record as Minnesota and Memphis, so if GS wins out they have the 6th seed. It's highly important to win the next 2 games to have some time off.

https://www.nba.com/standings

[xdrta+]

Not necessarily. There are ties that the Warriors would lose out on. For instance, if Minnesota wins out (not unlikely, they play Brooklyn and Utah) and the Warriors do the same, the Clips (assuming they beat Kings tonight), Warriors, and Wolves would tie, and Minnesota would own the tiebreaker. That puts them in 6th and and the Warriors 7th.

If Memphis beats Denver tonight, there could be a 4 or 5 team tie, all with 33 losses. Denver plays Houston (resting everybody) on Sunday, so tonight is a big game.

According to Slater, if the Warriors win out, the lowest they can finish is 6th.

Slater is correct. There are numerous possibilities involving the other four teams (Clippers, Nuggets, TWolves, Grizzlies) should the Warriors win out. But in each scenario, the Warriors are no worse than 6th.

Pick a scenario, and it can be explained why the Warriors are no worse than 6th if they win out (and most likely 6th).

I don't dispute you, but I'd like to see the work from someone who did the math on this scenario. Teams 3-8, that's the Lakers through Minnesota could all still end the season with 33 losses. Seeding would be determined by winning percentage in all games among the six tied teams. If there are still ties it reverts back to two or three team tiebreakers, whatever's needed.

Or, I suppose we could just wait until Monday night.

[HiRez]

NBA.com has GS as the 6th seed with the same record as Minnesota and Memphis, so if GS wins out they have the 6th seed. It's highly important to win the next 2 games to have some time off.

https://www.nba.com/standings

Big question is will LAC have anything to play for in the last game? We'll know in a few hours. If not then they'll probably rest everyone and on paper the Warriors should have an easy path to the 6 seed. However, they've shown us many times this year they will play down to their competition so nothing is guaranteed. Portland isn't the pushover they used to be either, they put up a pretty good fight in the last game against them and might easily be overlooked.

From my reading of it, LAC loses 2-way tiebreakers to LAL (by H2H) and Denver (by conf. record). In a 3-way tie with LAL and DEN, LAC also loses (to LAL because they won their division and to DEN by conf. record). There's a weird scenario where LAL could lose their last 2 and LAC wins their last 2 and then LAC is the division winner. I don't know, 2 games left and there's still a crazy number of scenarios, it's making my head hurt so probably best to just wait until tonight's games are over. Dubs need to win regardless of anything else.

[AirP.]

NBA.com has GS as the 6th seed with the same record as Minnesota and Memphis, so if GS wins out they have the 6th seed. It's highly important to win the next 2 games to have some time off.

https://www.nba.com/standings

Big question is will LAC have anything to play for in the last game? We'll know in a few hours. If not then they'll probably rest everyone and on paper the Warriors should have an easy path to the 6 seed. However, they've shown us many times this year they will play down to their competition so nothing is guaranteed. Portland isn't the pushover they used to be either, they put up a pretty good fight in the last game against them and might easily be overlooked.

The issue is, you can't let down your guard so you have to go into the next 2 games like you have to win them. If you go into game 82 thinking the Clippers are going to rest and they don't, you may not be in the mental state you need to be in to win that game.

[DAWill1128]

So win out and play the Lakers or lose one and play the Rockets? I think the Lakers probably would sweep the Rockets in a series. The Rockets we could probably beat in 5, we won't beat the Lakers in 5. It would be a 6 or 7 game series either way with the Lakers.

[statsman]

I don't dispute you, but I'd like to see the work from someone who did the math on this scenario. Teams 3-8, that's the Lakers through Minnesota could all still end the season with 33 losses. Seeding would be determined by winning percentage in all games among the six tied teams. If there are still ties it reverts back to two or three team tiebreakers, whatever's needed.

In the event of a 6-way tie, the first tiebreaker would be for any division winner(s), which would only be the Lakers (Pacific Division). They would be the #3 seed.

After that, the remaining 5-way tie would be decided by games against each other. To have that 5-way tie, the Warriors (incl. vs Clippers), Twolves and Grizzlies (incl. vs Clippers) would have to win out, and the Nuggets and Clippers each with their other games.

Cumulative W-L percentage against the other tied teams, since they are all different, would decide the seedings as follows:

#4: Twolves 10-4 (.714)
#5: Clippers: 8-6 (.571)
#6: Warriors: 8-7 (.533)
#7: Nuggets: 5-9 (.357)
#8: Grizzlies: 4-9 (.308)

If the games vs the Lakers are supposed to remain in the calculation of the above percentages despite being a division winner, then the W-L records and percentage would obviously change, but the seedings would remain the same (I honestly don't know if the Lakers are supposed to remain in the cumulative calculations under this scenario).

#4: Twolves 12-6 (.667)
#5: Clippers: 9-9 (.500)
#6: Warriors: 9-10 (.474)
#7: Nuggets: 7-11 (.389)
#8: Grizzlies: 5-12 (.294)

[xdrta+]

I don't dispute you, but I'd like to see the work from someone who did the math on this scenario. Teams 3-8, that's the Lakers through Minnesota could all still end the season with 33 losses. Seeding would be determined by winning percentage in all games among the six tied teams. If there are still ties it reverts back to two or three team tiebreakers, whatever's needed.

In the event of a 6-way tie, the first tiebreaker would be for any division winner(s), which would only be the Lakers (Pacific Division). They would be the #3 seed.

After that, the remaining 5-way tie would be decided by games against each other. To have that 5-way tie, the Warriors (incl. vs Clippers), Twolves and Grizzlies (incl. vs Clippers) would have to win out, and the Nuggets and Clippers each with their other games.

Cumulative W-L percentage against the other tied teams, since they are all different, would decide the seedings as follows:

#4: Twolves 10-4 (.714)
#5: Clippers: 8-6 (.571)
#6: Warriors: 8-7 (.533)
#7: Nuggets: 5-9 (.357)
#8: Grizzlies: 4-9 (.308)

If the games vs the Lakers are supposed to remain in the calculation of the above percentages despite being a division winner, then the W-L records and percentage would obviously change, but the seedings would remain the same (I honestly don't know if the Lakers are supposed to remain in the cumulative calculations under this scenario).

#4: Twolves 12-6 (.667)
#5: Clippers: 9-9 (.500)
#6: Warriors: 9-10 (.474)
#7: Nuggets: 7-11 (.389)
#8: Grizzlies: 5-12 (.294)

Yeah, the Lakers are automatically in, that's the first tie breaker, so it could only be a 5 way tie. I suppose there are 3 and 4 team ties that could happen, but I'm sure you're right, the Warriors survive. Thanks, good work.

Now if we lose one game, things look darker, but at worst it's 8th. A foot in the door, at least.

[xdrta+]

15 seeds still to be settled.

Read on Twitter

[xdrta+]

Some scenarios for tonight's games.

HoopsRumors

The Nuggets will clinch a top-six seed and thus a guaranteed playoff spot with a win AND a loss by either the Clippers, Warriors or Timberwolves.
The Clippers will clinch a playoff spot with a win AND a loss by either Denver, Golden State or Minnesota.
The Warriors will secure a playoff berth with a win AND losses by both Memphis and Minnesota.
The Grizzlies will be locked into the play-in tournament with a loss AND a Warriors win.
The Timberwolves will be locked into the play-in tournament with a loss AND wins by Denver, Golden State and the Clippers.
The Lakers will clinch the Pacific Division with a win OR a Clippers loss.

[marthafokker]

So win out and play the Lakers or lose one and play the Rockets? I think the Lakers probably would sweep the Rockets in a series. The Rockets we could probably beat in 5, we won't beat the Lakers in 5. It would be a 6 or 7 game series either way with the Lakers.

HOUSTON?
OR maybe... not be playing in the playoff at all like pass years.

[marthafokker]

Everything's gonna come down to Sunday vs. the Clippers.

Not if Kerr and team sleep walk on Portland. This has been done many times this season.

Then it doesn't matter.

When was the last time the Blazers beat the Warriors? The Warriors just seem like they have the Blazers' number. I'm predicting a blowout.

Is that a guarantee? Like that last game?

[Twinkie defense]

Not if Kerr and team sleep walk on Portland. This has been done many times this season.

Then it doesn't matter.

When was the last time the Blazers beat the Warriors? The Warriors just seem like they have the Blazers' number. I'm predicting a blowout.

Is that a guarantee? Like that last game?

Vs. Spurs is never a guarantee from me.