Post#60 » by tsherkin » Thu Jul 31, 2025 2:10 pm
This is an interesting one to ponder.
I'd probably write off the 2010 Lakers. Artest was worse for them than Ariza, specifically for shooting reasons. And they struggled pretty badly against things which looked like contemporary defense, especially from the aging Celtics. They'd have a hell of a time with the Thunder, for example, but would likely also struggle against the T-Wolves. They had some decent defenses in that postseason, and then Phoenix, which was dreadful on D but good enough on O to go 6 with LA.
Kobe had a pretty ugly series against the Thunder, or rather an ugly start. He shot under 35% from the floor in the first and third game. Killed it at the line in Game 2. Didn't shoot super well from the floor, but 43% or so inside the arc. He nearly dropped a 40-piece on them because of the FTs, though. Then he had 12, then 13 points in the following games (one a loss, one a win), before finishing with a strong game. They cake-walked over Utah, and Kobe obliterated them. And if you wanted to see Kobe with a 3 clicking, it was him in the Phoenix series. He was taking 7 a game at about 43%. I doubt he'd shoot that well in today's game, but when his 3 was falling, he was effectively unguardable. Boston was an interesting series, because he was either incandescent or wretched. He had 3 games south of 50% TS and 2 games north of 61% TS, with a 56.8 and a 58.9 on top of that.
Boston checked LA as a team pretty well, but themselves struggled to score, looking worse compared to their RS performance than did the Lakers. LA was something like -3 ORTG relative to the RS and Boston was closer to -6. And the Lakers just abused them on the offensive glass. Pau and Bynum were also a big part of their D with their rim protection.
Anyway, that's more of a retrospective, and about 2010 specifically. Obviously, the 2009 version was a stronger team, with more dangerous offense.
What would they look like in today's game?
Let's consider the 09 team. Let's start with DIRECT translation. The 09 Lakers were a 112.8 ORTG team, which was 3rd during that season. It would be 22nd in today's game with no changes. Average 3PAr in today's game is .421, and for 09 LAL, it was .217. Obviously a big difference. They were 5th in the league in pace at 94.3 possessions per game, which would be dead-last. The slowest team in 2025 was Boston at 95.7, so LA was playing at a pace 1.4 possessions per game slower than the slowest team in today's game. That's also a big deal for raw FG%, team ORTG, etc, etc, etc. It was a considerably slower team, still barely exited from the grindy awfulness of the late 90s and early 2000s.
So naturally, there would have to be changes. Fisher could probably handle more 3pt volume, especially from the corners. Maybe they use Radman a little more. Pau was showing a little 3pt shot at the tail end of his career, and he was always a good perimeter 2pt shooter, and was a career 75% FT shooter. It's possible he could develop enough corner proficiency to be a threat. The big impediment would be how little shooting that team had relative to this era. Their in a huge hole to start on that front. The triangle is a little archaic, even if its root principles still apply. They'd definitely need to expand their spacing and incorporate some more contemporary sets. Probably a lot more PnR, a bunch of DHO initiation and then just trying to hammer home read-react principles into their guys.
So the basic sketch here is that there's basically no real way that team, as constructed, would be dominating in today's game. I doubt the translation would be as poor as those raw numbers illustrate, of course. Pau would adapt a bit, he was always a good player and a strong shooting big. He wasn't Kevin Love, but he was adapting in low volume near the end of his career anyway, and if it was game-planned earlier, it's likely it would have happened earlier. They didn't have a lot of quality shooters on the team and they were slow as balls relative to today's league, but they'd speed up. Transition buckets are what they are, everyone wants them for obvious reasons. That'd help a little as well. That's not a title-level offensive roster in today's game, but it's a foundation of consequence, and you could add complementary shooting a lot more easily than finding two guys as good as Kobe and Pau.
The rest of it lands on the shoulders of how Kobe would adapt in today's game.
Many people have discussed his inelasticity. After Shaq left, he was pretty much set on doing things his way, and it took several years for him to get away from that mode, kind of going through what MJ did mostly pre-Phil. So the specific manner in which translation was handled would matter. Do we just port that team here? Kobe was taking 4.1 3PA/g in 2009 and 2010 both, 4.6 and 5.7 during the playoffs. I don't actually think it would be that hard to get him shooting 3s, because at that stage of his career, he was already doing it. In 2003, and then also 2006-2008, he took 5+ 3PA/g in the playoffs anyway.
The trick would be shifting him away from the long twos, but the way defense goes now, it wouldn't be too conceptually difficult to trade some 21-footers for 3s and some of those 18- and 19-footers for shots in the 14-17 foot range, which is considerably more wide open than it was in his day. And this version of Kobe liked the post, so it wouldn't be unthinkable to see him smashing elbow post the way Old Man Lebron does. 09 was, if memory serves, the season where Kobe was working with Hakeem and all that anyway. And then you add in extra spacing and more transition possessions...
I suspect Bryant would be fine in this era. Probably close to his prime level of +3% rTS, maybe even a tad higher depending on how well he managed from 3. It's hard to understate how different spacing was for him in that league, and how much tempo affects things, even when you don't get an open dunk out of a transition possession. Acting in the secondary break against loose defense is still VERY different than action against a fully set defense, after all, and enjoying more of THOSE possessions, with floor geometry warped by contemporary-level shooters would be a big deal.
So yeah, while I don't really see the 2009 or 2010 Lakers being any kind of real title threat because of their roster talent, I do think the Pau/Kobe pairing would be very interesting in today's game.