**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

[VaDe255]

Their draft situation is basically this:

- 11th pick is very likely, unless they make the playoffs (I still give them about a 25% chance to do that)
- anything from 19-23 pick from the Warriors if the GSW make the playoffs (this is still like 90% chance)
- 14th pick if GSW don't make the playoffs (and that pick doesn't land in top 4, but this is only a tiny 2.4% chance)

[Daffy]

Their draft situation is basically this:

- 11th pick is very likely, unless they make the playoffs (I still give them about a 25% chance to do that)
- anything from 19-23 pick from the Warriors if the GSW make the playoffs (this is still like 90% chance)
- 14th pick if GSW don't make the playoffs (and that pick doesn't land in top 4, but this is only a tiny 2.4% chance)

What does the playoffs have to do with our pick or GS's pick. It's just based on records.

[VaDe255]

Their draft situation is basically this:

- 11th pick is very likely, unless they make the playoffs (I still give them about a 25% chance to do that)
- anything from 19-23 pick from the Warriors if the GSW make the playoffs (this is still like 90% chance)
- 14th pick if GSW don't make the playoffs (and that pick doesn't land in top 4, but this is only a tiny 2.4% chance)

What does the playoffs have to do with our pick or GS's pick. It's just based on records.

Yes, you're somewhat right, some of it is based on record, but these are the complete rules:

1) All teams missing the playoffs are in the lottery
2) Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top four pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3) 1-4 in the lottery are decided by a drawing of ping pong balls
4) Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 5-14
5) Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
6) Random drawing decides who picks first between teams with same record

[Daffy]

Their draft situation is basically this:

- 11th pick is very likely, unless they make the playoffs (I still give them about a 25% chance to do that)
- anything from 19-23 pick from the Warriors if the GSW make the playoffs (this is still like 90% chance)
- 14th pick if GSW don't make the playoffs (and that pick doesn't land in top 4, but this is only a tiny 2.4% chance)

What does the playoffs have to do with our pick or GS's pick. It's just based on records.

Yes, you're somewhat right, some of it is based on record, but these are the complete rules:

1) All teams missing the playoffs are in the lottery
2) Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top four pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3) 1-4 in the lottery are decided by a drawing of ping pong balls
4) Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 5-14
5) Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
6) Random drawing decides who picks first between teams with same record

Wow. I did not know the extra stuff. Learned something new today.

[DayofMourning]

I wonder how high up a package of 11,19-21, Jaime could get us.

Some team would have to love Jaime. After last year and the SL he wouldve had good value, but not after this season. We killed his development by giving Terry the ball. Jaime had the ball a lot last year. We took it away from him this year and when he got it, he pressed and made mistake after mistake.

[MartyConlonJr]

What does the playoffs have to do with our pick or GS's pick. It's just based on records.

Yes, you're somewhat right, some of it is based on record, but these are the complete rules:

1) All teams missing the playoffs are in the lottery
2) Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top four pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3) 1-4 in the lottery are decided by a drawing of ping pong balls
4) Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 5-14
5) Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
6) Random drawing decides who picks first between teams with same record

Wow. I did not know the extra stuff. Learned something new today.

Yeah, and it means this late season surge did nothing for us (other than good habit building). We could have ended up 30-52 tied with Toronto, and because we own the tie break, still been 10th seed for play in.

We could have been playing for the playoffs and a 15th pick (that would go to OKC) if we made it, but had the parachute that if we lost either play in game, we would be tied with Toronto for 7th pick and end up in a coin flip for 7th best odds in the lottery, with a 7.5% chance at first pick or 32.0% chance at top 4.

[HeatingUp3]

We gonna pick 8th?

[DayofMourning]

We gonna pick 8th?

Cant now.

[lastb1ckman]

Last year I predicted we'd pick up a big and a point guard in the draft. I was close, we got big and a "guard". I'm running it back, I think we pick up a PG and a big this time. It's just makes sense with where we sit with both picks, the talent in this draft, and holes on this team.

I don't expect any superstars falling to us, but I can totally see us snatching up the PG of the future and a good back up center.

[Hoops3355]

I wonder how high up a package of 11,19-21, Jaime could get us.

Some team would have to love Jaime. After last year and the SL he wouldve had good value, but not after this season. We killed his development by giving Terry the ball. Jaime had the ball a lot last year. We took it away from him this year and when he got it, he pressed and made mistake after mistake.

Yeah, Spo's handling of Jamie this year post injury was really weird. Playing Terry when they weren't serious about tanking was a wild decision.

[DayofMourning]

I wonder how high up a package of 11,19-21, Jaime could get us.

Some team would have to love Jaime. After last year and the SL he wouldve had good value, but not after this season. We killed his development by giving Terry the ball. Jaime had the ball a lot last year. We took it away from him this year and when he got it, he pressed and made mistake after mistake.

Yeah, Spo's handling of Jamie this year post injury was really weird. Playing Terry when they weren't serious about tanking was a wild decision.

Terry is a major reason we arent out of the play in. He was awful and hurt the teams developmemt.

[Hoops3355]

Some team would have to love Jaime. After last year and the SL he wouldve had good value, but not after this season. We killed his development by giving Terry the ball. Jaime had the ball a lot last year. We took it away from him this year and when he got it, he pressed and made mistake after mistake.

Yeah, Spo's handling of Jamie this year post injury was really weird. Playing Terry when they weren't serious about tanking was a wild decision.

Terry is a major reason we arent out of the play in. He was awful and hurt the teams developmemt.

Agreed. Looking back we wasted a ton of reps on him for him to only end up out of rotation (rightfully so). Still shocked to see how long it took Spo to come to that conclusion.

[Hoops3355]

Last year I predicted we'd pick up a big and a point guard in the draft. I was close, we got big and a "guard". I'm running it back, I think we pick up a PG and a big this time. It's just makes sense with where we sit with both picks, the talent in this draft, and holes on this team.

I don't expect any superstars falling to us, but I can totally see us snatching up the PG of the future and a good back up center.

Yeah I'd love for us to hit with a PG early and Big late if we end up with 2 picks. SG / SF if the right player is there I could see them going that route too depending on how the draft shakes out.

Point Guard just makes sense though. Mitchell + Draft + Dru Smith (you guys know he'll be back) is solid. Mitchell game has been a pleasant surprise in that it flows pretty naturally.

[greg4012]

Some team would have to love Jaime. After last year and the SL he wouldve had good value, but not after this season. We killed his development by giving Terry the ball. Jaime had the ball a lot last year. We took it away from him this year and when he got it, he pressed and made mistake after mistake.

Yeah, Spo's handling of Jamie this year post injury was really weird. Playing Terry when they weren't serious about tanking was a wild decision.

Terry is a major reason we arent out of the play in. He was awful and hurt the teams developmemt.

And have you thanked him? He's got us talking lottery picks

[DayofMourning]

Yeah, Spo's handling of Jamie this year post injury was really weird. Playing Terry when they weren't serious about tanking was a wild decision.

Terry is a major reason we arent out of the play in. He was awful and hurt the teams developmemt.

And have you thanked him? He's got us talking lottery picks

I sent him a gift basket;)

[VaDe255]

Yeah, Spo's handling of Jamie this year post injury was really weird. Playing Terry when they weren't serious about tanking was a wild decision.

Terry is a major reason we arent out of the play in. He was awful and hurt the teams developmemt.

And have you thanked him? He's got us talking lottery picks

After all, depending how this draft pans out, he might be a big reason this franchise is in a good spot next season

[DayofMourning]

18th pick-worst case for GSW pick.

[DayofMourning]

14th pick-worst case for Miami pick if in lotto.

[Wiltside]

Damn, the difference from being 11th (9.4% chance of a top 4 pick) vs finishing 10th (16.9% change) is pretty significant...

[lastb1ckman]

Just had a thought about Jase Richardson. If he really works out and has more on ball juice and passing than he was able to show at Michigan, could he work next to Herro as a lite version of Mitchell and Garland? Especially if Bam and Wares 3s and scoring improve next season.