Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 316: Merab vs O'Malley 2 and Harrison vs Pena

[HarthorneWingo]

Wait … you can do this? This is legal?

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[j4remi]

Lerone Murphy was a major disappointment

His striking is great, with a ton of versatility. But he has no second gear, which is scarily reminiscent of Leon Edwards.

[j4remi]

Well, after two weeks of APEX-type cards, we're getting a genuine banger of a card. UFC 314 is loaded with interesting match-ups and some big personalities to sell the fights. You know it's a good one when it's tough to make confident picks. Here's some quick takes:

Alex Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes:

Spoiler:

We're more than a year removed from Alex Volkanovski getting KO'ed badly twice in a 4 month span. Before that, he was P4P number 1 or 2, despite certain holes that his losses exposed (mainly, low hands). Diego Lopes is the buzzsaw who has five straight wins over quality competition, though he looked very human against Dan Ige.

The cool thing about this fight is how both guys' weaknesses play into each others' strengths. Lopes is aggressive and loves to trap opponents in clinches, where he can hurt them. Volk is elusive and loves to play the matador with his great footwork, but gets in trouble at close quarters. The question is whether Lopes can trap Volk long enough to hurt him and, honestly, I have no clue. Diego kinda gassed against Ige, but has the size and power to finish Volk...it's a toss up for me.

I lean Lopes, because Volk is 36 now and was in decline when we last saw him. But Volk's got a great team and should be prepared. Winner gets to claim the FW championship!

Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett:

Spoiler:

Picture this, you're Michael Chandler sporting a 2-4 UFC record, 2 straight losses, and 2 lost years waiting for Conor McGregor fight that never happened...now you have to fight Paddy Pimblett who has a Prime Conor's bad attitude but not nearly as much fame or value. What a terrible spot for a wildly entertaining fighter...who I think might lose.

See, Paddy's chin is begging for Chandler to land a big overhand right, but Paddy's NEVER been knocked out. The guy gets hit, gets hurt, and just clinches his way through it. Meanwhile, Chandler slows down after the first round and can be taken down. Paddy has superb grappling if he can force a fight to the mat and that makes him a live threat. I know a lot of people have leaned to Chandler, but I think Pimblett gets another surprising win to their dismay.

Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull:

Spoiler:

The true people's main event is Bellator's GOAT Patricio Pitbull against UFC striking phenom Yair Rodriguez. They're the two most exciting strikers on the card, they rarely wrestle unless forced to, and they both kick like demons. This is gonna be a fun fight!

I'd normally be big on Pitbull winning, but age is a factor again. Pitbull is 37 and 1-2 in the past couple of years (though, he still looks strong). Yair is i his prime and has fought the best of the best in prime Holloway and Volkanovski. I don't think Pitbull's power will throw Yair off, like it might for other fighters. Either way, we're getting a gem and this is a toss-up for me.

Jean Silva vs Bryce Mitchell:

Spoiler:

After multiple gaffes and abhorrent comments, I don't think Bryce Mitchell deserves to be in the UFC. But I like Jean Silva's chances to beat him up, which will at least be cathartic. Silva's with the MMA Nerds clique, and those dudes have been smoking everybody. He's steamrolled all four UFC opponents for KO's, and that includes quality opponents like Drew Dober and Charles Jourdain.

Bryce sucks at striking but has very good BJJ and puts anyone in danger on the mat. He doesn't have defense though. His defense has been to just blitz in with his head down and try to get things to the ground. I trust Silva to hurt him in that process, though things could get dicey if Mitchell gets the fight to the ground.

Nikita Krylov vs Dominick Reyes:

Spoiler:

Don't sleep on this on this one either, two LHW strikers that are good but have had disappointing career arcs. People say Dominick Reyes beat Jon Jones, but since he lost that decision, he lost 3 more in a row. Now he's bounced back a pair of KO's but the level of competition is questionable. Krylov has had impressive runs in the UFC, but always came up short in the fight to earn a title-shot (he's lost to Jan, Ankalaev, and Glover in those shots).

Even better, both guys have better offense than defense. This will probably be a KO, and it could go either way. I like Krylov, but when I say the guy has let me down...I mean he's blown up more than one parlay of mine.

But wait there's more:
The entire prelim is FIRE too. Though, I'm speed running these...

Dan Ige is 3-6 in his past 9, but all of his losses came to killers NOBODY could finish him. Sean Woodson's only career loss came from a flukey choke by Julian Erosa but he hasn't fought anyone near as good as Ige's 8th best opponent. I lean Ige to get this one, but it's another toss up and almost a guaranteed striking scrap.

Yan Xionan kinda outstruck Weili Zhang, but lost because she can't stop takedowns. Virna Jandiroba just happens to overwhelm opponents with grappling acumen. Smart money is on Virna, possibly by submission. But I'm a Xionan stan, so I'm just being stubborn and picking my girl! ...you probably shouldn't though.

Jim Miller vs Chase Hooper is the UFC's OG scrappy BJJ guy vs the UFC's up and coming scrappy BJJ guy. Hooper has shown big growth in every fight while Miller's declining fast. I'm picking Hooper but rooting for some fun scrambles and grappling before it ends.

Darren Elkins and Julian Erosa are journeymen who have survived in the UFC by being reliably tough and putting on fun fights. Neither is great, but they're both tough to put away. Elkins is 40, with just under 30 UFC fights, and kinda just wrestles these days. I don't think that'll be enough to beat Erosa who has 14 submission wins including a bunch of chokes including D'arce chokes and guillotines...he knows how to punish wrestlers.

This is already at TL:DR territory, so we'll leave the early prelims to Youtube channels that make serious betting picks. They're fun fights too, though!

This is worth tuning in to. Though, I wouldn't guilt anyone for finding workarounds to view it in protest of Bryce Mitchell getting paid.

[HarthorneWingo]

Looks like a fun card

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Wow, complete domination by Paddy.

[j4remi]

Paddy just keeps getting better...that was a great performance. Silva and Pimblett gotta get bonuses...Reyes deserves one too.

[MrDollarBills]

[Ghetto Gospel]

okay from a marketing perspective, i can kind of see paddy's star potential, man he had that place (and me too honestly) going crazy

[HarthorneWingo]

Paddy just keeps getting better...that was a great performance. Silva and Pimblett gotta get bonuses...Reyes deserves one too.

Paddy really improved. That said, for whatever reason, Chandler looked like a shell of himself.

[j4remi]

That was hands down the best card so far this year. Great fights, impressive finishes, and a few surprises...

Volk looked close to vintage, and I'm at least curious about how he'd look against Movsar. Which is rare because I don't care to watch Movsar's fights typically.

Paddy kinda put the nail in Michael Chandler's top-10 coffin. Pimblett's style is rough for opponents because he fights to all of his advantages. He's big, has a hell of a chin, and is elite in grappling exchanges. So, he fights long and usually gets a points advantage. Then, when fighters move into his range, they're moving into space to get hit hard or be forced into grappling. If he manages to beat one of the top guys he called out, it'll be a title fight next because he's got the charisma to be a star.

Jean Silva needs a fast track to top-tier competition. He bullied Bryce Mitchell, and we still haven't seen him face any adversity in the cage. He's just dominant right now.

Yair vs Pitbull was a little disappointing. Pitbull didn't take risks until the third round and got caught in the process. I'd have loved to see the fight go for five rounds.

Reyes looked as good as we've seen since he lost to Jones. It's just a question of whether he can keep it up when the competition gets tougher.

The prelims had good fights, but I kinda had the results pegged.

[j4remi]

Some fun grappling news. If yall don't remember the Craig Jones Invitational; it was a big BJJ tournament with two million dollar prizes and wound up being one of the most entertaining BJJ tournaments in a long time. It also scheduled directly next to ADCC which is the biggest BJJ tournament every year. That caused a lot of drama and beef.

Well FLO Grappling will be having the star of the CJI tournament (Nicky Rodriguez) against the star of that ADCC event Kaynan Duarte this weekend.

On top of that, Craig Jones is starting to promote CJI 2, and he's collaborating with my FAVORITE BJJ organization Quintet. Quintet is team BJJ, where there's a weight limit for the team rather than the individuals. So you can have three tiny guys, a middleweight and a heavyweight; or a small guy, two middleweights, and a couple of big guys. Whatever balance of sizes you want.

Matches run on a shorter time limit and if it's a draw after regulation, both guys are eliminated. If someone gets a submission, they immediately compete with the next guy on the opposing team. So Quintet has a lot of strategy added to the usual BJJ formats and it forces competitors to be really aggressive. Quintet events are AWESOME and CJI was incredible, so this marriage is great!

Plus, Craig's trolling wrestlers this time. He'll be facing Gable Stevenson in the main event.

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And if that's not enough hype. Not only is it a team event, but two of the teams have beef. John Danaher's old crew of killers split up with Craig Jones leading the split. Danaher's sending a team in (no Gordon Ryan though). For grappling heads, this is the event to watch for.

[j4remi]

We're getting a rare "it's actually good" free card this weekend. It's mostly developing names, but the matchups should make good fights and there's enough talent that a few title challengers could come out of this crop. The fights to watch:

Ian Garry vs Carlos Prates:
Another Fighting Nerds prodigy gets in there with a Euro-Prodigy who has reached the cusp of contention. Carlos Prates has KO'ed his last TEN opponents, including everyone he's fought in the UFC. Ian Garry lost his perfect record to Shavkhat Rakhmonov, but he's the only fighter to make Shavkhat look mortal. I think Garry's standing in the MMA community went up despite losing.

The best part of this matchup is that it's two striking prodigies, who have mostly overwhelmed opponents with speed and power. But they're both high IQ fighters. The fighting nerds are the only camp I've ever seen with an analytics guy; and Garry has trained with every great team that would have him. I think Garry's path to victory is through forcing grappling exchanges, but this is a toss-up.

Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang:
This is kind of cool because Anthony Smith may be on his way out, but he's only fought top-15 talent for years. Mingyang hasn't fought anyone better than Smith's worst opponent in his last ten fights. The styles get even more interesting...

Smith's chin is finally showing holes, but he still looks unKO'able without fighters accumulating damage across rounds. Mingyang is so ridiculously powerful that he's only been out of the first round twice, and he lost those two fights. So, it may be a case where Smith has to survive until Mingyang gases, and I'm not sure how to pick.

David Onama vs Giga Chikadze:
Similar to the last one, Onama's rising talent while Giga is proven talent that's on a downturn. But Chikadze's closer to his prime than Anthony Smith, and Onama is more proven than Mingyang. I edge Giga's striking but Onama's grappling is better from what we've seen.

So it comes down to whether Onama can get in and get takedowns. I'm leaning toward Giga, but it's another toss-up.

Michel Pereira vs Abus Magomedov:
This one's simple...Pereira wants to stay on the feet, and Magomedov wants takedowns. But the fun is that Pereira is a ridiculous athlete and Abus can be KO'ed. I still think the wrestler has the advantage here.

Randy Brown vs Nicolas Dalby:
Simply put, these are two journeymen with exciting striking styles. So, it'll be fireworks. Dalby's toughness is his edge, while Brown's a better striker imo. I lean toward Brown, but Dalby has a way of wearing guys out with his toughness and pressure.

Ikram Aliskerov vs Andre Muniz:
Muniz has a long UFC career of being ridiculously strong but middling skill-wise. Aliskerov was on the verge of contention, but ran into Robert Whitaker. I missed Muniz's last fight (a split-decision win), but prior to that, I felt like age had caught up with him. Ikram is still in his fight prime. So, I edge it to Aliskerov.

Matt Schnell vs Jimmy Flick:
Leaving this here because Matt Schnell is famous for having great offense and absolutely no defense. I almost always bet the under for fight-length on his fights, and recently, betting on him getting stopped has by his opponent. Flick has good chokes, Schnell just got stopped by a Cody Durden choke. I might put some light money on Flick by submission and parlay it with the under.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

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Pretty foul to do that to Islam.

[Ghetto Gospel]

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Pretty foul to do that to Islam.

i don't think they're doing islam dirty like that. he's probably just on ice right now pending the belal vs JDM fight.

if JDM wins, islam vacates 155 and moves up to 170 to fight JDM and if belal wins, islam stays at 155 and fights ilia for undisputed

[NoDopeOnSundays]

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Pretty foul to do that to Islam.

i don't think they're doing islam dirty like that. he's probably just on ice right now pending the belal vs JDM fight.

if JDM wins, islam vacates 155 and moves up to 170 to fight JDM and if belal wins, islam stays at 155 and fights ilia for undisputed

Islam has said Ilia should fights some contenders at 155 before just getting a shot, think he learned from Volk that the risks outweighs the benefits, which is if he wins he beat a small guy, if he loses he lost to a small guy.

[j4remi]

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Pretty foul to do that to Islam.

i don't think they're doing islam dirty like that. he's probably just on ice right now pending the belal vs JDM fight.

if JDM wins, islam vacates 155 and moves up to 170 to fight JDM and if belal wins, islam stays at 155 and fights ilia for undisputed

That was the initial plan. But things may have changed if the rumors about Dricus Du Plessis are true. DDP vs Chimaev was earmarked for 317, but now it sounds like that won't happen. Suddenly, we've got Ilia training for that card before Belal vs JDM is decided.

So, either Islam committed to 170 or the UFC threw him a fat paycheck to take the fight. If Islam moves to 170, it'll most likely be Ilia vs Oliveira, though there's a darkhorse opponent in Arman Tsarukyan.

As an aside, word on the streets is that the UFC did everything in their power and still couldn't get us Aspinall vs Jones. There's a rumor that we'll hear Aspinall vs Gane announced soon.

[Ghetto Gospel]

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Pretty foul to do that to Islam.

i don't think they're doing islam dirty like that. he's probably just on ice right now pending the belal vs JDM fight.

if JDM wins, islam vacates 155 and moves up to 170 to fight JDM and if belal wins, islam stays at 155 and fights ilia for undisputed

That was the initial plan. But things may have changed if the rumors about Dricus Du Plessis are true. DDP vs Chimaev was earmarked for 317, but now it sounds like that won't happen. Suddenly, we've got Ilia training for that card before Belal vs JDM is decided.

So, either Islam committed to 170 or the UFC threw him a fat paycheck to take the fight. If Islam moves to 170, it'll most likely be Ilia vs Oliveira, though there's a darkhorse opponent in Arman Tsarukyan.

As an aside, word on the streets is that the UFC did everything in their power and still couldn't get us Aspinall vs Jones. There's a rumor that we'll hear Aspinall vs Gane announced soon.

sounds like ilia vs charles is already made tbh.. interesting to see if islam moves up to 170 regardless of who wins the belal vs JDM fight?

jon jones ducking isn't surprising considering he ducked ngannou right before moving up to heavyweight then taking the easy stipe fight. if they set up aspinall vs gane, i want to see it be for undisputed rather than for the interim. it'd be disgusting if it's for the interim

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[j4remi]

sounds like ilia vs charles is already made tbh.. interesting to see if islam moves up to 170 regardless of who wins the belal vs JDM fight?

jon jones ducking isn't surprising considering he ducked ngannou right before moving up to heavyweight then taking the easy stipe fight. if they set up aspinall vs gane, i want to see it be for undisputed rather than for the interim. it'd be disgusting if it's for the interim

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It sounded like Islam wouldn't fight Belal, but money talks and they've only trained together recently. So, I could see it shifting. Ilia vs Charles is a fun fight too. Length vs precision; both elite grapplers...it's a fun one.

Islam vs Shavkhat is the fight I want to see most out of all the division-hopping possibilities.

Jones is at the point where he basically can just take money fights. I think the biggest problem is UFC refusing to strip his belt. That Stipe fight was dumb, and Aspinall's rise didn't get enough credit because he never got the undisputed title on it. It'd be funny if Gane beats Tom too, because that just makes UFC dropping the ball on Ngannou vs Jones that much bigger of a greedy fumble.

The good news is that it looks like these division logjams will finally be over, one way or the other. HW can get back to chugging along. FW has its king again and LW and WW will both be pressing on with potentially new champs.

[j4remi]

It’s official…

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Max vs Dustin 2 was nominated for fight of the year. Max jumped to LW on fairly short notice. This time he’s had time to properly put the weight on, so it adds new intrigue to a great fight.

This is an epic career capper for diamond and another elite opponent to add to Holloway’s resume. You’d be hard pressed to find many fighters with a tougher strength of schedule than Max across his career. Aldo, Volk, Conor, Diamond, Pettis, Oliveira, Gaethje…just off the top of my head.

[HarthorneWingo]

Anything going on this weekend?

I saw something that PFL had a tournament or something last week.