2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 LA Lakers vs #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN leads 1-0)
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Its a small sample size but atleast in Ant era so far, Wolves have played better in away games than home games in playoffs. They are 7-7 in away games whereas they are 5-8 in home games. Even so far this regular season, their home & away splits are pretty much identical (25-16 at home, 24-17 away from home).
            
                                    
                                    
                        Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Klomp wrote:Bob8 wrote:I agree with majority of your comments, but I believe you still don't understand transformation Lakers had after the trade. The best example is 3s. Before ASB Lakers were shooting 34.5 3s, 25th in the league, with 35.6%. After all star break Lakers are shooting 40.4 3s, 7th most in the league, 38.6%, 5th best %. Difference is huge, Luka is just creating big volume of wide open 3s.
That's good to know, but it's worth pointing out Minnesota's defense is Top 7 in 3-point defense in 3PM (3rd), 3PA (7th) and 3P% (6th). Minnesota is better equipped to get out to 3-point shooters than last year's group.
You just can't, unless you will defend Luka 1 on 1, what might result in Luka averaging 40+.
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
MikRay wrote:cupcakesnake wrote:ReggiesKnicks wrote:
Post Objective stats
"What a homer!"
Ya media bias in the Wolves favor will be out of control this series
He is from Minnesota lol
He’s a fan not an objective observer
Not going to lie, I thought you were joking.
You get most national media is based in LA right? We have to endure the entire season and playoffs with NBA coverage that treats LA like the hometeam and the other 29 teams as the away team they've heard a little bit about. I'm laughing a little because... any media in a series against the Lakers, is going to have a massive bias towards the team playing in the biggest media market in North America. You feeling a need to police homer takes for the Wolves is a little ironic...?
Yes, Jon Krawczynski covers the Wolves. He is the Wolves beat reporter for the Athletic. As a Wolves fan, I'm super familiar with him. He's specifically our highest quality journalist. I think that amongst team-specific journalists, he's elite (up there with Caitlin Cooper for the Pacers and Adam Mares for the Nuggets.) Calling all team-specific journalists "homers" though is pretty reductive. It's not like Krawczynski is some raging annoying fan. He's hyper critical of the Wolves all the time. I get it that some teams have journalists or broadcasting teams that clearly don't check their bias when they provide insight by this guy isn't one of them.
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Klomp wrote:Bob8 wrote:shrink wrote:Yes, giving out the actual stats is clearly what homers do.
Stats may be actual but difficult of schedule wasn't.
Since March 1:
Wolves: 17-4
Lakers: 13-11
Lakers stretch included losses to Brooklyn, Chicago (x2), Orlando and Portland.
I addressed that too. Lakers were very good against over 0.500 teams and very bad against bad teams from east. I would imagine playing good against good western teams should count more for evaluating how they will play against Wolves.
 Against Portland nobody played.
 Against Portland nobody played.Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Bob8 wrote:Klomp wrote:Bob8 wrote:
Stats may be actual but difficult of schedule wasn't.
Since March 1:
Wolves: 17-4
Lakers: 13-11
Lakers stretch included losses to Brooklyn, Chicago (x2), Orlando and Portland.
I addressed that too. Lakers were very good against over 0.500 teams and very bad against bad teams from east. I would imagine playing good against good western teams should count more for evaluating how they will play against Wolves.Against Portland nobody played.
Wolves, particularly Ant, have been like that for three years, and they get labeled mentally soft.
Since this thread is filled with Laker excuses, what is the Lakers excuse here? I can’t imagine they go with “mentally soft?”
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Bob8 wrote:
I agree with majority of your comments, but I believe you still don't understand transformation Lakers had after the trade. The best example is 3s. Before ASB Lakers were shooting 34.5 3s, 25th in the league, with 35.6%. After all star break Lakers are shooting 40.4 3s, 7th most in the league, 38.6%, 5th best %. Difference is huge, Luka is just creating big volume of wide open 3s.
They are generating more threes, but Luka taking nearly 10 threes a game when AD took two is a big part of that change.
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
pepe1991 wrote:I guess there is simply more Lakers / Doncic / Lebron fans out there than Wolves fans to write here, but some of takes are very hot.
Wolves didn't lose to Mavs last year because Luka averaged 50 ppg, he had great series but he didn't break it. Mavs incredible defense did.
Mavs big outplayed Towns & Gobert and their elite wing defenders disrupted Wolves offense.
Mavs team was louded with two-way wings, at almost every point of a game, they had at least two wing defenders in.
Mavs defense was so elite that despite fact they took 38 shots less than Wolves, they still made 9 shots total more.
Lakers defense isn't even average since ASG. It's 17# in nba.
Lakers have 1 wing defender in Smith and even he isn't that elite. That's pretty much all they have on defensive end.
Jarred Vanderbilt isn't playoffs playable for long, Rui last year in playoffs was two-way joke and punchline. Hayes was removed from rotation.
Reaves and Doncic are liabilities on defense, Lebron doesn't have stamina due age.
And nobody on Lakers can protect paint. Matter of fact Lakers have 0 capable defenders taller than 6'8. And worst C rotation in nba.
Even in games Lakers won, they were still ran over by elite ball handlers who can beat first line of defense. Because second line doesn't even exist. And they can't defend transition at all.
Lakers won lot of games in post Doncic era by dumping 40 threes a game ( top 10 most taken ) while having ability to shoot near 38% ( top 10 in accuracy & 3FGM ). Matter of fact 48% of all shots Lakers are taking are 3s. That also isn't really winning playoff formula. Maybe for team louded with uber elite 3 point shooters, but Lakers aren't that. They are definition of average.
Lakers can still win this series, Wolves have own set of problems. Both teams are mediocre against winning teams, Randle and Gobert are odd fit. Wolves don't have reliable second scoring option.
Whoever forces other team to adjust , will be in driver's seat to win a series.
But this will be 6 games series at least.
They are shooting so many 3s with so good % because Luka is creating wide open looks.
Mavs had 118 offensive rtg last year. Denver had 109.5 and Suns 109.3. Denver had better defensive rtg than Mavs.
Are you still sure that Mavs ofense didn't win the series?
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
NyKnicks1714 wrote:Bob8 wrote:
I agree with majority of your comments, but I believe you still don't understand transformation Lakers had after the trade. The best example is 3s. Before ASB Lakers were shooting 34.5 3s, 25th in the league, with 35.6%. After all star break Lakers are shooting 40.4 3s, 7th most in the league, 38.6%, 5th best %. Difference is huge, Luka is just creating big volume of wide open 3s.
They are generating more threes, but Luka taking nearly 10 threes a game when AD took two is a big part of that change.
Change is not only in # of attempts, they're shooting with 5th best % in the league.
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Bob8 wrote:
I agree with majority of your comments, but I believe you still don't understand transformation Lakers had after the trade. The best example is 3s. Before ASB Lakers were shooting 34.5 3s, 25th in the league, with 35.6%. After all star break Lakers are shooting 40.4 3s, 7th most in the league, 38.6%, 5th best %. Difference is huge, Luka is just creating big volume of wide open 3s.
The other point is, they will double Ant as much as possible, but they won't compromise the whole perimeter D for that, they will just leave open your worst shooter. Bet is really simple, limit Ant in shooting and drives and see, if your worst shooter can hit open shots, while doing that you know Ant will force a lot of shots, because it's no way his ego can survive scoring less than 15 points a game. JJ is doing some basketball psychological damage.
I talked about the Lakers 3-point defense, not their own 3-point shooting. Their 3-point shooting shouldn't be a surprise. They swapped a non-shooting big for a 3-point producing engine.
The Wolves whole offense is built around teams doubling Ant. Wait for the double, kick to Randle/Conley/DDV/Naz, shoot if open, drive against the closeout, get the defense in rotation, kick to the secondary driver (often Jaden, that worst shooter), and/or throw the lob to Gobert if they surrender that.
I really disagree with the "wont compromise the whole perimeter D" point. To me, the Lakers preferred scheme is to compromise the perimeter defense to increase paint protection. The Lakers looked awesome on defense for a good chunk of time, both before and after the Luka trade, but shrinking the floor and daring teams to shoot. It looked great, but we ignored that 3-point luck was at play. During that stretch, the Lakers had the best 3-point luck in the league and teams were just missing open and lightly guarded 3s a lot. The 3-point luck swung, and the Lakers defense collapsed. They've put up a 120 defensive rating over their last 14 games, as teams bomb them to death and break their shell. For the first 18 games after the Luka trade: 111 defensive rating, awesome paint protection, tons of missed 3s.
It's very hard to make definite statements about the Lakers and their statistical trends. We got 28 games of Luka after the big trade, but there were also some injuries in there, and a missing Lebron chunk. In terms of statistical analysis, it's like 3 different Lakers teams. We can throw out the pre-trade stuff, obviously, but even in the Luka era, this team has been a few different things. The only thing that ultimately matters now is the playoffs. If they manage to play good defense in the playoffs, we'll call them a good defensive team and point to their stretches of success in the regular season as being real. If they struggle, we'll call the stretches where they struggled real. Playoffs are fun like that. We treat whatever happens as proof. Even though tons of lucky/unlucky stuff happens in the playoffs.
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Bob8 wrote:Klomp wrote:Bob8 wrote:
Stats may be actual but difficult of schedule wasn't.
Since March 1:
Wolves: 17-4
Lakers: 13-11
Lakers stretch included losses to Brooklyn, Chicago (x2), Orlando and Portland.
I addressed that too. Lakers were very good against over 0.500 teams and very bad against bad teams from east. I would imagine playing good against good western teams should count more for evaluating how they will play against Wolves.Against Portland nobody played.
I'm just punching back against the soft schedule notion.
It's actually something that's very similar for the two teams. For years, Minnesota has struggled to get up for the games they should win. The Lakers were very good against the West this year (36-16) but the Timberwolves weren't far behind (33-19). Minnesota had 7 losses to West teams 11 through 15, Los Angeles had 5.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
cupcakesnake wrote:Bob8 wrote:
I agree with majority of your comments, but I believe you still don't understand transformation Lakers had after the trade. The best example is 3s. Before ASB Lakers were shooting 34.5 3s, 25th in the league, with 35.6%. After all star break Lakers are shooting 40.4 3s, 7th most in the league, 38.6%, 5th best %. Difference is huge, Luka is just creating big volume of wide open 3s.
The other point is, they will double Ant as much as possible, but they won't compromise the whole perimeter D for that, they will just leave open your worst shooter. Bet is really simple, limit Ant in shooting and drives and see, if your worst shooter can hit open shots, while doing that you know Ant will force a lot of shots, because it's no way his ego can survive scoring less than 15 points a game. JJ is doing some basketball psychological damage.
I talked about the Lakers 3-point defense, not their own 3-point shooting. Their 3-point shooting shouldn't be a surprise. They swapped a non-shooting big for a 3-point producing engine.
The Wolves whole offense is built around teams doubling Ant. Wait for the double, kick to Randle/Conley/DDV/Naz, shoot if open, drive against the closeout, get the defense in rotation, kick to the secondary driver (often Jaden, that worst shooter), and/or throw the lob to Gobert if they surrender that.
I really disagree with the "wont compromise the whole perimeter D" point. To me, the Lakers preferred scheme is to compromise the perimeter defense to increase paint protection. The Lakers looked awesome on defense for a good chunk of time, both before and after the Luka trade, but shrinking the floor and daring teams to shoot. It looked great, but we ignored that 3-point luck was at play. During that stretch, the Lakers had the best 3-point luck in the league and teams were just missing open and lightly guarded 3s a lot. The 3-point luck swung, and the Lakers defense collapsed. They've put up a 120 defensive rating over their last 14 games, as teams bomb them to death and break their shell. For the first 18 games after the Luka trade: 111 defensive rating, awesome paint protection, tons of missed 3s.
It's very hard to make definite statements about the Lakers and their statistical trends. We got 28 games of Luka after the big trade, but there were also some injuries in there, and a missing Lebron chunk. In terms of statistical analysis, it's like 3 different Lakers teams. We can throw out the pre-trade stuff, obviously, but even in the Luka era, this team has been a few different things. The only thing that ultimately matters now is the playoffs. If they manage to play good defense in the playoffs, we'll call them a good defensive team and point to their stretches of success in the regular season as being real. If they struggle, we'll call the stretches where they struggled real. Playoffs are fun like that. We treat whatever happens as proof. Even though tons of lucky/unlucky stuff happens in the playoffs.
I agree with you, that's why I'm focusing more on offensive side. In the end only matters, who can score more. D is already calculated in scoring. Let's say Wolves have better D, but Lakers score more, because Wolves D can't limit them, who wins?
Just look at last year, I'm sure nobody believes Mavs were better defensive team with Luka and Kyrie playing 40 minutes. Defensive rtg says they were alot better, but in reality they were just that much better offensive team.
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Klomp wrote:Bob8 wrote:Klomp wrote:Since March 1:
Wolves: 17-4
Lakers: 13-11
Lakers stretch included losses to Brooklyn, Chicago (x2), Orlando and Portland.
I addressed that too. Lakers were very good against over 0.500 teams and very bad against bad teams from east. I would imagine playing good against good western teams should count more for evaluating how they will play against Wolves.Against Portland nobody played.
I'm just punching back against the soft schedule notion.
It's actually something that's very similar for the two teams. For years, Minnesota has struggled to get up for the games they should win. The Lakers were very good against the West this year (36-16) but the Timberwolves weren't far behind (33-19). Minnesota had 7 losses to West teams 11 through 15, Los Angeles had 5.
And the Lakers “tough schedule” for that 13-11 included their toughest competitors already clinched, (OKC x2 and HOU).
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Bob8 wrote:NyKnicks1714 wrote:Bob8 wrote:
I agree with majority of your comments, but I believe you still don't understand transformation Lakers had after the trade. The best example is 3s. Before ASB Lakers were shooting 34.5 3s, 25th in the league, with 35.6%. After all star break Lakers are shooting 40.4 3s, 7th most in the league, 38.6%, 5th best %. Difference is huge, Luka is just creating big volume of wide open 3s.
They are generating more threes, but Luka taking nearly 10 threes a game when AD took two is a big part of that change.
Change is not only in # of attempts, they're shooting with 5th best % in the league.
3-point variability will be a huge factor for the Lakers. Reaves is a pretty consistent 3-point shooter, but Luka and Lebron are famously hot and cold. In a playoff series, this is everything. If Lebron and Luka are hot from 3... the Lakers might smoke the Wolves no matter what. If either of them hit a cold stretch, things will get a lot more difficult.
Obviously 3-point variance is a massive deal for everyone, and anyone can get hot or cold. Some teams have a bit more variance than others, and I'd put the Lakers in that category. Their main shooters are Luka, Lebron, Reaves, Rui, and DFS. If Dalton Knecht plays, that's another strong shooter. Vando and Jaxson Hayes are non-shooters. Gabe Vincent is capable of getting hot but is another high variance shooter with below average overall results.
Wolves can be streaky too. Ant loves to jack threes and goes flaming hot and ice cold, and Randle isn't shy despite being a mediocre 3-point shooter. Gobert is a non-shooter and Jaden is a poor shooter. DDV, Naz, and Conley are all dangerous and pretty consistent. NAW has become very reliable from range. I'd trust the Wolves more from 3, since we have a whole season of them being in the top 5 in attempts and makes, but no one should be surprised if the Lakers outshot them in a series.
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Klomp wrote:Bob8 wrote:Klomp wrote:Since March 1:
Wolves: 17-4
Lakers: 13-11
Lakers stretch included losses to Brooklyn, Chicago (x2), Orlando and Portland.
I addressed that too. Lakers were very good against over 0.500 teams and very bad against bad teams from east. I would imagine playing good against good western teams should count more for evaluating how they will play against Wolves.Against Portland nobody played.
I'm just punching back against the soft schedule notion.
It's actually something that's very similar for the two teams. For years, Minnesota has struggled to get up for the games they should win. The Lakers were very good against the West this year (36-16) but the Timberwolves weren't far behind (33-19). Minnesota had 7 losses to West teams 11 through 15, Los Angeles had 5.
True, again they punted Portland game.
 
 Look at Lakers record against east, 14-16.
 
   
  
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
There is not enough Lakers games to figure out how Lakers will play. Most I heard so far are just LBJ, Luka, LAL fan comments. The only meaningful Lakers games are from 2/10 - 4/3 and LBJ or Luka were out in some of those games. It's true Lakers got a good trio of scorers. At the same time, Luka is the only one that requires double team. Twolves had so much trouble with DAL because Luka and Kyrie requires double team and normally Wolves don't doubt anyone. Even with that, the series was close. Wolves also added a couple guys that could guard the parameters this year.
For me it comes down to:
1. Which Randle going to show up? Wolves fan knows what I am talking about.
2. Will Gobert continue to play like he did in the last 10 games 14 rb and 18pts a night?
3. Can LBJ consistently hit 3s?
4. Can Wolves rotate fast enough to cover Reaves?
5. Between the new players and make Luka play defense, I am fairly certain Wolves will contain Luka this time
6. I am less worried about LBJ in half court set with JMcD or Randle covering him and Gobert defend the rim
7. Gobert can cover out to 3pt lines in certain situations and if Wolves feed him the ball for 18 pts, he will stay in all game
            
                                    
                                    
                        For me it comes down to:
1. Which Randle going to show up? Wolves fan knows what I am talking about.
2. Will Gobert continue to play like he did in the last 10 games 14 rb and 18pts a night?
3. Can LBJ consistently hit 3s?
4. Can Wolves rotate fast enough to cover Reaves?
5. Between the new players and make Luka play defense, I am fairly certain Wolves will contain Luka this time
6. I am less worried about LBJ in half court set with JMcD or Randle covering him and Gobert defend the rim
7. Gobert can cover out to 3pt lines in certain situations and if Wolves feed him the ball for 18 pts, he will stay in all game
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
cupcakesnake wrote:Bob8 wrote:NyKnicks1714 wrote:
They are generating more threes, but Luka taking nearly 10 threes a game when AD took two is a big part of that change.
Change is not only in # of attempts, they're shooting with 5th best % in the league.
3-point variability will be a huge factor for the Lakers. Reaves is a pretty consistent 3-point shooter, but Luka and Lebron are famously hot and cold. In a playoff series, this is everything. If Lebron and Luka are hot from 3... the Lakers might smoke the Wolves no matter what. If either of them hit a cold stretch, things will get a lot more difficult.
Obviously 3-point variance is a massive deal for everyone, and anyone can get hot or cold. Some teams have a bit more variance than others, and I'd put the Lakers in that category. Their main shooters are Luka, Lebron, Reaves, Rui, and DFS. If Dalton Knecht plays, that's another strong shooter. Vando and Jaxson Hayes are non-shooters. Gabe Vincent is capable of getting hot but is another high variance shooter with below average overall results.
Wolves can be streaky too. Ant loves to jack threes and goes flaming hot and ice cold, and Randle isn't shy despite being a mediocre 3-point shooter. Gobert is a non-shooter and Jaden is a poor shooter. DDV, Naz, and Conley are all dangerous and pretty consistent. NAW has become very reliable from range. I'd trust the Wolves more from 3, since we have a whole season of them being in the top 5 in attempts and makes, but no one should be surprised if the Lakers outshot them in a series.
I think Naz is also bit of a streaky shooter...can go through stretches where just can't miss and also have stretches like he had in March where his shot looked totally off
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Bob8 wrote:cupcakesnake wrote:Bob8 wrote:
I agree with majority of your comments, but I believe you still don't understand transformation Lakers had after the trade. The best example is 3s. Before ASB Lakers were shooting 34.5 3s, 25th in the league, with 35.6%. After all star break Lakers are shooting 40.4 3s, 7th most in the league, 38.6%, 5th best %. Difference is huge, Luka is just creating big volume of wide open 3s.
The other point is, they will double Ant as much as possible, but they won't compromise the whole perimeter D for that, they will just leave open your worst shooter. Bet is really simple, limit Ant in shooting and drives and see, if your worst shooter can hit open shots, while doing that you know Ant will force a lot of shots, because it's no way his ego can survive scoring less than 15 points a game. JJ is doing some basketball psychological damage.
I talked about the Lakers 3-point defense, not their own 3-point shooting. Their 3-point shooting shouldn't be a surprise. They swapped a non-shooting big for a 3-point producing engine.
The Wolves whole offense is built around teams doubling Ant. Wait for the double, kick to Randle/Conley/DDV/Naz, shoot if open, drive against the closeout, get the defense in rotation, kick to the secondary driver (often Jaden, that worst shooter), and/or throw the lob to Gobert if they surrender that.
I really disagree with the "wont compromise the whole perimeter D" point. To me, the Lakers preferred scheme is to compromise the perimeter defense to increase paint protection. The Lakers looked awesome on defense for a good chunk of time, both before and after the Luka trade, but shrinking the floor and daring teams to shoot. It looked great, but we ignored that 3-point luck was at play. During that stretch, the Lakers had the best 3-point luck in the league and teams were just missing open and lightly guarded 3s a lot. The 3-point luck swung, and the Lakers defense collapsed. They've put up a 120 defensive rating over their last 14 games, as teams bomb them to death and break their shell. For the first 18 games after the Luka trade: 111 defensive rating, awesome paint protection, tons of missed 3s.
It's very hard to make definite statements about the Lakers and their statistical trends. We got 28 games of Luka after the big trade, but there were also some injuries in there, and a missing Lebron chunk. In terms of statistical analysis, it's like 3 different Lakers teams. We can throw out the pre-trade stuff, obviously, but even in the Luka era, this team has been a few different things. The only thing that ultimately matters now is the playoffs. If they manage to play good defense in the playoffs, we'll call them a good defensive team and point to their stretches of success in the regular season as being real. If they struggle, we'll call the stretches where they struggled real. Playoffs are fun like that. We treat whatever happens as proof. Even though tons of lucky/unlucky stuff happens in the playoffs.
I agree with you, that's why I'm focusing more on offensive side. In the end only matters, who can score more. D is already calculated in scoring. Let's say Wolves have better D, but Lakers score more, because Wolves D can't limit them, who wins?
Just look at last year, I'm sure nobody believes Mavs were better defensive team with Luka and Kyrie playing 40 minutes. Defensive rtg says they were alot better, but in reality they were just that much better offensive team.
Well sure, but that goes both ways. D (defensive rating) is already calculated in scoring, in the exact same way scoring (offensive rating) is already calculated in defense. Both things are always happening so we have to quantify or qualify what happened.
Choosing whether it's great defense limiting offense, or great offense powering through defense is usually something we can figure out watching the games and looking under the hood at other stats. That Dallas series, Luka was able to break the Wolves POA defense really easily. He put the Wolves defense in a situation where they had to pick between a Luka midranger, a lob from the center, or an open corner 3. Wolves tried to guard all 3, failed, and basically guarded none of the 3. More importantly, Luka was able to completely blow the Wolves out in Towns/Naz minutes (Gobert on the bench). Defensively, the Mavs stayed at home and prioritized rim protection against Ant. Ant was a little hampered by a back injury (especially early on) and couldn't break through PJ Washington with Lively/Gafford behind him. The Mavs dared Towns to shoot, and he shot badly/reluctantly... the bet paid off. There's a world where Towns goes off and that series is different. In the playoffs you take those risks and they pay off or dont.
ANyways, there was a lot going on, on both ends. Ultimately, the Mavs putting up a 120 offensive rating against a defense that had just shut down 2 high-powered offenses meant: Mavs offense good, Wolves defense bad!
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
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               Bob8
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
TimberKat wrote:There is not enough Lakers games to figure out how Lakers will play. Most I heard so far are just LBJ, Luka, LAL fan comments. The only meaningful Lakers games are from 2/10 - 4/3 and LBJ or Luka were out in some of those games. It's true Lakers got a good trio of scorers. At the same time, Luka is the only one that requires double team. Twolves had so much trouble with DAL because Luka and Kyrie requires double team and normally Wolves don't doubt anyone. Even with that, the series was close. Wolves also added a couple guys that could guard the parameters this year.
For me it comes down to:
1. Which Randle going to show up? Wolves fan knows what I am talking about.
2. Will Gobert continue to play like he did in the last 10 games 14 rb and 18pts a night?
3. Can LBJ consistently hit 3s?
4. Can Wolves rotate fast enough to cover Reaves?
5. Between the new players and make Luka play defense, I am fairly certain Wolves will contain Luka this time
6. I am less worried about LBJ in half court set with JMcD or Randle covering him and Gobert defend the rim
7. Gobert can cover out to 3pt lines in certain situations and if Wolves feed him the ball for 18 pts, he will stay in all game
I have to say you're far less cocky this year than last.
 Last year you're offended by Mavs fans saying Mavs have a chance.
 Last year you're offended by Mavs fans saying Mavs have a chance. I believe it's far more simple situation. If Luka plays like he's playing last games, Lakers will win, because you can't double him with LeBron, AR and 2 shooters.
On the other hand Wolves will win, if Ant will play at least as good as Luka, not only scoring, but passing from double teams too.
Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
- cupcakesnake
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
life_saver wrote:cupcakesnake wrote:Bob8 wrote:
Change is not only in # of attempts, they're shooting with 5th best % in the league.
3-point variability will be a huge factor for the Lakers. Reaves is a pretty consistent 3-point shooter, but Luka and Lebron are famously hot and cold. In a playoff series, this is everything. If Lebron and Luka are hot from 3... the Lakers might smoke the Wolves no matter what. If either of them hit a cold stretch, things will get a lot more difficult.
Obviously 3-point variance is a massive deal for everyone, and anyone can get hot or cold. Some teams have a bit more variance than others, and I'd put the Lakers in that category. Their main shooters are Luka, Lebron, Reaves, Rui, and DFS. If Dalton Knecht plays, that's another strong shooter. Vando and Jaxson Hayes are non-shooters. Gabe Vincent is capable of getting hot but is another high variance shooter with below average overall results.
Wolves can be streaky too. Ant loves to jack threes and goes flaming hot and ice cold, and Randle isn't shy despite being a mediocre 3-point shooter. Gobert is a non-shooter and Jaden is a poor shooter. DDV, Naz, and Conley are all dangerous and pretty consistent. NAW has become very reliable from range. I'd trust the Wolves more from 3, since we have a whole season of them being in the top 5 in attempts and makes, but no one should be surprised if the Lakers outshot them in a series.
I think Naz is also bit of a streaky shooter...can go through stretches where just can't miss and also have stretches like he had in March where his shot looked totally off
I think everyone is a streaky shooter. Even Ray Allen went through stretches where he struggled to buy a bucket. A
Naz still shot 37% on 3s in March, and I think even when he's off he's a threat the defense reacts to, and he's good at attacking close outs.. He was really up and down from 3 this season, compared to last.
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
- bisme37
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Re: 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #3 Lakers vs #6 Timberwolves
Game 1: Timberwolves at Lakers, Saturday April 19, 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
            
                                    
                                    
                        


