Bulls @ Sixers 12pm CT Apr. 13 2025

[MGB8]

When he bounces back next season when they're (hopefully) not blatantly tanking, the narrative will shift to something else as the reason why we're bitter towards him.

I'm not bitter towards Lauri, but if someone said, we'll give you Lauri for Vuc + Collins + Carter this off-season, I'd definitely have to stop and think about whether I want him on a deal averaging ~48M for the next four years. The calculus would be very similar to trading for Zach LaVine.

The comparison to Zach is pretty similar, absolutely loved the hell out of Zach on a 20M deal, just like you'd love the hell out of Lauri on that 15M deal and we love the heck out of Coby on his 13M deal. The total price ends up making a big difference in how you feel about a player.

The fact that it is a topic worthy of discussion shows all those players are really, really good, like top 60 basketball guys in the world, but players get judged on how good they are relative to how much they make, even if that judgment is often sub conscious for people. Fans even start ascribing personality traits based on on the gap between salary and performance and then think people change after that ratio changes.

I think that it is likely that Lauri is worth a little “more” than Zach, contractually — for a team with the right fit.

He really looked very good before they took that Jazz team apart, and I don’t think his numbers this year are reflective of anything more than Lauri needing to play with a strong PG to be most effective. Zach can get his sort of regardless; Lauri needs to “fit.” But, when he fits, Lauri is more impactful than Zach.

In fairness to LaVine, though Zach hasn’t really been on many teams which are designed for him to “fit” - and maybe if he were, my impression of their relative value (which is already close) would shift in his favor. His play in Sacramento has been better than I expected, in particular without a PG and back with DDR (maybe the move for both resolved some of the seemingly ego-based issues).

[dougthonus]

When he bounces back next season when they're (hopefully) not blatantly tanking, the narrative will shift to something else as the reason why we're bitter towards him.

I'm not bitter towards Lauri, but if someone said, we'll give you Lauri for Vuc + Collins + Carter this off-season, I'd definitely have to stop and think about whether I want him on a deal averaging ~48M for the next four years. The calculus would be very similar to trading for Zach LaVine.

The comparison to Zach is pretty similar, absolutely loved the hell out of Zach on a 20M deal, just like you'd love the hell out of Lauri on that 15M deal and we love the heck out of Coby on his 13M deal. The total price ends up making a big difference in how you feel about a player.

The fact that it is a topic worthy of discussion shows all those players are really, really good, like top 60 basketball guys in the world, but players get judged on how good they are relative to how much they make, even if that judgment is often sub conscious for people. Fans even start ascribing personality traits based on on the gap between salary and performance and then think people change after that ratio changes.

I think that it is likely that Lauri is worth a little “more” than Zach, contractually — for a team with the right fit.

He really looked very good before they took that Jazz team apart, and I don’t think his numbers this year are reflective of anything more than Lauri needing to play with a strong PG to be most effective. Zach can get his sort of regardless; Lauri needs to “fit.” But, when he fits, Lauri is more impactful than Zach.

In fairness to LaVine, though Zach hasn’t really been on many teams which are designed for him to “fit” - and maybe if he were, my impression of their relative value (which is already close) would shift in his favor. His play in Sacramento has been better than I expected, in particular without a PG and back with DDR (maybe the move for both resolved some of the seemingly ego-based issues).

Yeah, I didn't mean it specifically as a Zach vs Lauri debate as much as the type of debate because they're both max contract guys, but you could probably sub in Mikal Bridges or Scottie Barnes or Franz Wagner, or in our future Coby White / Josh Giddey.

Just generally speaking, those might all be impactful players, but you will question with them whether they are impactful to the tune of their contracts, and Lauri / Zach on these really high end contracts that demand top 25 type performance, and they're both maybe kind of on the fringe of that at their absolute peak and quite a bit below that when not.

[Jcool0]

I'm not bitter towards Lauri, but if someone said, we'll give you Lauri for Vuc + Collins + Carter this off-season, I'd definitely have to stop and think about whether I want him on a deal averaging ~48M for the next four years. The calculus would be very similar to trading for Zach LaVine.

The comparison to Zach is pretty similar, absolutely loved the hell out of Zach on a 20M deal, just like you'd love the hell out of Lauri on that 15M deal and we love the heck out of Coby on his 13M deal. The total price ends up making a big difference in how you feel about a player.

The fact that it is a topic worthy of discussion shows all those players are really, really good, like top 60 basketball guys in the world, but players get judged on how good they are relative to how much they make, even if that judgment is often sub conscious for people. Fans even start ascribing personality traits based on on the gap between salary and performance and then think people change after that ratio changes.

I think that it is likely that Lauri is worth a little “more” than Zach, contractually — for a team with the right fit.

He really looked very good before they took that Jazz team apart, and I don’t think his numbers this year are reflective of anything more than Lauri needing to play with a strong PG to be most effective. Zach can get his sort of regardless; Lauri needs to “fit.” But, when he fits, Lauri is more impactful than Zach.

In fairness to LaVine, though Zach hasn’t really been on many teams which are designed for him to “fit” - and maybe if he were, my impression of their relative value (which is already close) would shift in his favor. His play in Sacramento has been better than I expected, in particular without a PG and back with DDR (maybe the move for both resolved some of the seemingly ego-based issues).

Yeah, I didn't mean it specifically as a Zach vs Lauri debate as much as the type of debate because they're both max contract guys, but you could probably sub in Mikal Bridges or Scottie Barnes or Franz Wagner, or in our future Coby White / Josh Giddey.

Just generally speaking, those might all be impactful players, but you will question with them whether they are impactful to the tune of their contracts, and Lauri / Zach on these really high end contracts that demand top 25 type performance, and they're both maybe kind of on the fringe of that at their absolute peak and quite a bit below that when not.

Franz Wagner? Since coming back from injury that took away a sure All Star spot he is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. In the last 10 games Orlando is 8-2 and he is averaging 24/6/5 with a +/- of +7.2. He is currently 23 years old. If he isn't getting the max then no one should outside of the top 10 players.

[dougthonus]

Franz Wagner? Since coming back from injury that took away a sure All Star spot he is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. In the last 10 games Orlando is 8-2 and he is averaging 24/6/5 with a +/- of +7.2. He is currently 23 years old. If he isn't getting the max then no one should outside of the top 10 players.

You could look at Zach's raw stats and have said the same thing, then he got a max deal after two similar caliber seasons with all-star births, and everyone hated him later and called him overpaid. Franz might end up totally different or maybe the same, time will tell. Orlando hasn't been salary constrained or had enough time on the rise to where people are super upset that things are continually getting better, but they might be there in a year or two, that's when the questions will come (if they come). Certainly possible Franz may continue to get better and better as well and lead the Magic to 60 wins and then it won't be question. Could just as easily throw Paolo into that conversation instead of Franz as well.

[Dan Z]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/markkla01.html

Lauri PER by year:
15.6
17.1
14.3
15.2
14.7
22.1
21.7
Got paid
15.6

Dude basically Februlauried for two straight years. Well, more specifically, started aggressively attacking the basket and then stopped again.

I mean, don't get me wrong, he is certainly no Patrick Williams level bust or something.

The Jazz are tanking and I bet Ainge talked to him about that. You'd be motivated to go all out if you were in his situation?

No way they told Lauri not to play hard and 100% Lauri wouldn't listen. They would put him in a position to fail and limit his minutes or outright sitting him with "injuries". They got fined $100,00 for doing it. In his last game against Chicago, the Jazz lost 97-111. Lauri had 16 points most in the 1st half. He ended up only playing 24 minutes in that game. If AK is the anti tank commander. Ainge is the general of tanking.

I don't think Ainge told Lauri not to work hard. Why would he? What I think he did is tell him the reality of what the teams goal was for this season. Or at the very least I bet he hinted at it (either way their goal was obvious)

Ainge tried to trade Markkanen and nothing happened, so he re-signed him. Not only did he re-sign him but he renegotiated his contract. He didn't have to pay him more for this season and I bet one reason why he did is because he knows it's a "wasted season" for Markkanen.

[Dan Z]

Franz Wagner? Since coming back from injury that took away a sure All Star spot he is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. In the last 10 games Orlando is 8-2 and he is averaging 24/6/5 with a +/- of +7.2. He is currently 23 years old. If he isn't getting the max then no one should outside of the top 10 players.

You could look at Zach's raw stats and have said the same thing, then he got a max deal after two similar caliber seasons with all-star births, and everyone hated him later and called him overpaid. Franz might end up totally different or maybe the same, time will tell. Orlando hasn't been salary constrained or had enough time on the rise to where people are super upset that things are continually getting better, but they might be there in a year or two, that's when the questions will come (if they come). Certainly possible Franz may continue to get better and better as well and lead the Magic to 60 wins and then it won't be question. Could just as easily throw Paolo into that conversation instead of Franz as well.

One difference between the two is age. Wagner looks like a player who is improving. Did anyone think that Zach's all-star seasons meant he'd get better?

I agree with you that questions will probably come down the road for Orlando, but right now they're young and trying to figure things out.

[Jcool0]

Franz Wagner? Since coming back from injury that took away a sure All Star spot he is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. In the last 10 games Orlando is 8-2 and he is averaging 24/6/5 with a +/- of +7.2. He is currently 23 years old. If he isn't getting the max then no one should outside of the top 10 players.

You could look at Zach's raw stats and have said the same thing, then he got a max deal after two similar caliber seasons with all-star births, and everyone hated him later and called him overpaid. Franz might end up totally different or maybe the same, time will tell. Orlando hasn't been salary constrained or had enough time on the rise to where people are super upset that things are continually getting better, but they might be there in a year or two, that's when the questions will come (if they come). Certainly possible Franz may continue to get better and better as well and lead the Magic to 60 wins and then it won't be question. Could just as easily throw Paolo into that conversation instead of Franz as well.

Age 23:

Zach: 0.8 BPM & 1.5 VORP

Franz: 3.1 BPM & 2.6 VORP

[MrSparkle]

The Jazz are tanking and I bet Ainge talked to him about that. You'd be motivated to go all out if you were in his situation?

No way they told Lauri not to play hard and 100% Lauri wouldn't listen. They would put him in a position to fail and limit his minutes or outright sitting him with "injuries". They got fined $100,00 for doing it. In his last game against Chicago, the Jazz lost 97-111. Lauri had 16 points most in the 1st half. He ended up only playing 24 minutes in that game. If AK is the anti tank commander. Ainge is the general of tanking.

I don't think Ainge told Lauri not to work hard. Why would he? What I think he did is tell him the reality of what the teams goal was for this season. Or at the very least I bet he hinted at it (either way their goal was obvious)

Ainge tried to trade Markkanen and nothing happened, so he re-signed him. Not only did he re-sign him but he renegotiated his contract. He didn't have to pay him more for this season and I bet one reason why he did is because he knows it's a "wasted season" for Markkanen.

Well, he'll have next year to show this year was a wasted season, by coming back to 2023 form: 22 PER & 64% TS. I'd personally short that bet. 1 season peaks followed by big dips in their primes are total red flags for me, regardless whether a team decided to tank or not. Even injuries, I don't buy them as an excuse. Everyone **** on Embiid this year, but he clearly was playing through some serious pain, and he still ended with a 23.4 PER (huge drop from his career 28.2).

It's not like there haven't been 1-2X all-stars throughout NBA history. Just because you make that game once or twice doesn't mean you're worth a 5Y max. He legitimately looked great, but TBH he looked unsustainably good. It lasted a whole season and a half, so I give him way more credit than a Coby or Niko hot streak, but almost exactly on par with Zach if you look at the numbers. If some knee soreness is dropping you from 22 PER to 16, I see that as a red flag for a max player.

[Dan Z]

No way they told Lauri not to play hard and 100% Lauri wouldn't listen. They would put him in a position to fail and limit his minutes or outright sitting him with "injuries". They got fined $100,00 for doing it. In his last game against Chicago, the Jazz lost 97-111. Lauri had 16 points most in the 1st half. He ended up only playing 24 minutes in that game. If AK is the anti tank commander. Ainge is the general of tanking.

I don't think Ainge told Lauri not to work hard. Why would he? What I think he did is tell him the reality of what the teams goal was for this season. Or at the very least I bet he hinted at it (either way their goal was obvious)

Ainge tried to trade Markkanen and nothing happened, so he re-signed him. Not only did he re-sign him but he renegotiated his contract. He didn't have to pay him more for this season and I bet one reason why he did is because he knows it's a "wasted season" for Markkanen.

Well, he'll have next year to show this year was a wasted season, by coming back to 2023 form: 22 PER & 64% TS. I'd personally short that bet. 1 season peaks followed by big dips in their primes are total red flags for me, regardless whether a team decided to tank or not. Even injuries, I don't buy them as an excuse. Everyone **** on Embiid this year, but he clearly was playing through some serious pain, and he still ended with a 23.4 PER (huge drop from his career 28.2).

It's not like there haven't been 1-2X all-stars throughout NBA history. Just because you make that game once or twice doesn't mean you're worth a 5Y max. He legitimately looked great, but TBH he looked unsustainably good. It lasted a whole season and a half, so I give him way more credit than a Coby or Niko hot streak, but almost exactly on par with Zach if you look at the numbers. If some knee soreness is dropping you from 22 PER to 16, I see that as a red flag for a max player.

The Sixers didn't come into this season with the intent to tank and it took awhile before they waved the white flag. Also, Embiid at his best is MVP level, so the two players aren't comparable.

I'm not sure why you're so critical of Markkanen. I'm just pointing out that this season nobody expected him to be at his top level because the Jazz aren't competing. Will he go back to his all-star level stats? Who knows. As you point out only time will tell. I have no idea what the Jazz have planned for next year and I"m sure a lot of that will depend on the draft.

I also don't think AK will actually inquire about Markkanen, so any idea of a trade here is a moot point.

[dougthonus]

One difference between the two is age. Wagner looks like a player who is improving. Did anyone think that Zach's all-star seasons meant he'd get better?

I agree with you that questions will probably come down the road for Orlando, but right now they're young and trying to figure things out.

Yeah, this wasn't a post meant to bash Franz.

The only point was, people love guys when they're cheap, they often dislike them once they are paid when there are expectations of improvement baked in. You got to take chances on guys, you have little other choice, but many of today's up and comer's become tomorrow's bad contracts.

[dougthonus]

Franz Wagner? Since coming back from injury that took away a sure All Star spot he is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. In the last 10 games Orlando is 8-2 and he is averaging 24/6/5 with a +/- of +7.2. He is currently 23 years old. If he isn't getting the max then no one should outside of the top 10 players.

You could look at Zach's raw stats and have said the same thing, then he got a max deal after two similar caliber seasons with all-star births, and everyone hated him later and called him overpaid. Franz might end up totally different or maybe the same, time will tell. Orlando hasn't been salary constrained or had enough time on the rise to where people are super upset that things are continually getting better, but they might be there in a year or two, that's when the questions will come (if they come). Certainly possible Franz may continue to get better and better as well and lead the Magic to 60 wins and then it won't be question. Could just as easily throw Paolo into that conversation instead of Franz as well.

Age 23:

Zach: 0.8 BPM & 1.5 VORP

Franz: 3.1 BPM & 2.6 VORP

Franz TS% below average 55.8%, sub 30% three point shooter. You can pick and choose things you want to focus on. But again, this is a forest through the trees conversation. I'm not making a specific point that all these guys are the same, just that hwen you pay a guy a max and they aren't Luka or Giannis, it often doesn't work out well for you. Guys people love on one contract often dislike on a big contract later. I just named a bunch of guys that may or may not end up in that boat.

If you want to get hung up on Franz being great, be my guest. I wasn't making a point about Franz specifically nor about Zach specifically, but rather about the context of paying guys where the best players are artificially constrained making the next group in a tougher boat at the same salaries.

[Dan Z]

One difference between the two is age. Wagner looks like a player who is improving. Did anyone think that Zach's all-star seasons meant he'd get better?

I agree with you that questions will probably come down the road for Orlando, but right now they're young and trying to figure things out.

Yeah, this wasn't a post meant to bash Franz.

The only point was, people love guys when they're cheap, they often dislike them once they are paid when there are expectations of improvement baked in. You got to take chances on guys, you have little other choice, but many of today's up and comer's become tomorrow's bad contracts.

Your last sentence could soon be Giddey and Coby, but hopefully not. I'm hoping that their play in the second half of the season continues next year.

[Jcool0]

You could look at Zach's raw stats and have said the same thing, then he got a max deal after two similar caliber seasons with all-star births, and everyone hated him later and called him overpaid. Franz might end up totally different or maybe the same, time will tell. Orlando hasn't been salary constrained or had enough time on the rise to where people are super upset that things are continually getting better, but they might be there in a year or two, that's when the questions will come (if they come). Certainly possible Franz may continue to get better and better as well and lead the Magic to 60 wins and then it won't be question. Could just as easily throw Paolo into that conversation instead of Franz as well.

Age 23:

Zach: 0.8 BPM & 1.5 VORP

Franz: 3.1 BPM & 2.6 VORP

Franz TS% below average 55.8%, sub 30% three point shooter. You can pick and choose things you want to focus on. But again, this is a forest through the trees conversation. I'm not making a specific point that all these guys are the same, just that hwen you pay a guy a max and they aren't Luka or Giannis, it often doesn't work out well for you. Guys people love on one contract often dislike on a big contract later. I just named a bunch of guys that may or may not end up in that boat.

If you want to get hung up on Franz being great, be my guest. I wasn't making a point about Franz specifically nor about Zach specifically, but rather about the context of paying guys where the best players are artificially constrained making the next group in a tougher boat at the same salaries.

FWIW he was a 36% 3P shooter his 2nd year in the league. No idea what happened to it but it hasn't hurt his scoring output and shows he can get it back. My point was more i dont think Wagner is a fringe max guy. If you are 24/5/5 level guy at 23 that is the type of person you are supposed to max (i dont think it exists just so SGA can make more then anyone). Maybe that changes if he doesn't improve at all. But so far each year has gotten better. If Zach was just a good defender he might still be on the Bulls (not that defense fixes all his issues but its a big one). Now it helps that Wagner has a possibly better player on the team that works better then say DD and Zach. But we go with what we got.