Limited ability to re-up?

[toooskies]

Unless he performs miserably in the playoffs, I assume Ty's gone. That's baked in as far as I'm concerned.

I'm focused on Orlando because that's the team people, especially Magic fans, are talking about in this thread. You have them declining Mo's option and bringing him back for less which is really fortunate for them. It's the type of best case scenario for nothing offseason you see on a team's board.

I had them doing absolutely nothing specific other than waiving some guys, but having all the flexibility in the world to make something happen pretty easily. Don’t hang up on the specifics, as a lot changes going into free agency, and teams often shake loose of some salary hear or there at the draft or into July as a tag on in deals.

I guess our disagreement is that where you see a 4-year MLE offer as good for Ty, I see it as him locking himself into a below market deal while he's just hitting his prime. In fact, the only semi-plausible way I see Ty staying is if he concludes that his market will be far better in 2026 when half the league has cap space.

Did I say I see a 4 year MLE offer as good for Ty? I don’t think I did. I said that if Brooklyn doesn’t make a major offer, an MLE is a very likely offer. Maybe someone else shakes loose of major salary to have some cap, but right now, it’s just Brooklyn, and maybe Detroit if they choose to move on from THJ and Beasley, but they still may not offer a starting spot being invested in Jaden Ivey and all.

An MLE can be a one year deal. It doesn’t HAVE to be a 4 year deal. I listed so,e standard info on what the MLE is, not specifically an offer I expected Jerome to be happy to sign. An early bird offer to stay in Cleveland HAS to be a 2 year deal, though, with no options. If Jerome wants to test his market in 2026, he absolutely can’t do that staying in Cleveland, as he’d be required to be under contract for 2026 using early bird rights to get his raise. He’d have to go somewhere else for a one year MLE offer, and likely one that offers a starting spot.

I hadn't realized that teams had the ability to offer one year MLEs, or that an early bird offer had to be two. I still think a team offers more than the MLE though. If the MLE is the number you have to beat, you could still get Ty on a friendly deal in a league where IQ is making north of $30M per.

The circumstances where Ty Jerome takes a 1-year MLE are pretty small. He loses his Bird rights entirely. Unless his agent has a sure-thing arrangement the next year, he's not going anywhere that he's making less than the MLE for 3+ years.

The issue with teams offering Jerome more than the MLE is that that's an exceedingly short list of teams, and they have other places where they need to spend money. Current teams with actual cap space are Memphis (Aldama RFA and Morant/Bane/Pippen as their backcourt), Washington (eaten by draft pick cap hold and they have plenty of guards on the roster), Houston (but only if they cut FVV), Chicago (Giddey RFA), New Orleans (if they cut Zion), Detroit (who need to use cap to retain Beasley and THJ), and Brooklyn, by far the largest threat of teams currently with cap space if they don't tank next year.

And of the teams above, plenty will be looking for guards in the draft. 8 of the top 16 prospects (per tankathon's big board) are PGs or SGs: Harper, Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Fears, Jakucionis, Richardson, Demin, Traore. All of Washington, Houston, Brooklyn and Chicago could end up with a guard in the 1st round that fills any opening those teams have at the guard spot.

So outside of Brooklyn, most other teams that might want Jerome need to really target him rather than just sign him as the best available option. Other teams would need to clear cap space to get him.

Jerome is almost 28, so you don't know how much more you're getting out of him. He's not a pure PG, he's going to call his own number on drives rather than look to kick to open shooters. He's had injury issues throughout his career and fatigue was an issue late this season, prompting the Cavs to give him lots of rest/injury games off down the stretch. If I'm another team I'm not sure I'm counting on him as a starter.

[Scoot McGroot]

I had them doing absolutely nothing specific other than waiving some guys, but having all the flexibility in the world to make something happen pretty easily. Don’t hang up on the specifics, as a lot changes going into free agency, and teams often shake loose of some salary hear or there at the draft or into July as a tag on in deals.


Did I say I see a 4 year MLE offer as good for Ty? I don’t think I did. I said that if Brooklyn doesn’t make a major offer, an MLE is a very likely offer. Maybe someone else shakes loose of major salary to have some cap, but right now, it’s just Brooklyn, and maybe Detroit if they choose to move on from THJ and Beasley, but they still may not offer a starting spot being invested in Jaden Ivey and all.

An MLE can be a one year deal. It doesn’t HAVE to be a 4 year deal. I listed so,e standard info on what the MLE is, not specifically an offer I expected Jerome to be happy to sign. An early bird offer to stay in Cleveland HAS to be a 2 year deal, though, with no options. If Jerome wants to test his market in 2026, he absolutely can’t do that staying in Cleveland, as he’d be required to be under contract for 2026 using early bird rights to get his raise. He’d have to go somewhere else for a one year MLE offer, and likely one that offers a starting spot.

I hadn't realized that teams had the ability to offer one year MLEs, or that an early bird offer had to be two. I still think a team offers more than the MLE though. If the MLE is the number you have to beat, you could still get Ty on a friendly deal in a league where IQ is making north of $30M per.

The circumstances where Ty Jerome takes a 1-year MLE are pretty small. He loses his Bird rights entirely. Unless his agent has a sure-thing arrangement the next year, he's not going anywhere that he's making less than the MLE for 3+ years.

The issue with teams offering Jerome more than the MLE is that that's an exceedingly short list of teams, and they have other places where they need to spend money. Current teams with actual cap space are Memphis (Aldama RFA and Morant/Bane/Pippen as their backcourt), Washington (eaten by draft pick cap hold and they have plenty of guards on the roster), Houston (but only if they cut FVV), Chicago (Giddey RFA), New Orleans (if they cut Zion), Detroit (who need to use cap to retain Beasley and THJ), and Brooklyn, by far the largest threat of teams currently with cap space if they don't tank next year.

And of the teams above, plenty will be looking for guards in the draft. 8 of the top 16 prospects (per tankathon's big board) are PGs or SGs: Harper, Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Fears, Jakucionis, Richardson, Demin, Traore. All of Washington, Houston, Brooklyn and Chicago could end up with a guard in the 1st round that fills any opening those teams have at the guard spot.

So outside of Brooklyn, most other teams that might want Jerome need to really target him rather than just sign him as the best available option. Other teams would need to clear cap space to get him.

Jerome is almost 28, so you don't know how much more you're getting out of him. He's not a pure PG, he's going to call his own number on drives rather than look to kick to open shooters. He's had injury issues throughout his career and fatigue was an issue late this season, prompting the Cavs to give him lots of rest/injury games off down the stretch. If I'm another team I'm not sure I'm counting on him as a starter.

Not really. He would have non-Bird Rights with his new team, and he could get a raise off his MLE salary going forward in a new deal with that team. But, if the idea is that he would bide a year while entering free agency in 2026, then Cleveland would likely still be unable to sign and trade him away as a 2nd apron team, or he’d leave for a cap space team, where Bird Rights wouldn’t matter anyway.

[toooskies]

I hadn't realized that teams had the ability to offer one year MLEs, or that an early bird offer had to be two. I still think a team offers more than the MLE though. If the MLE is the number you have to beat, you could still get Ty on a friendly deal in a league where IQ is making north of $30M per.

The circumstances where Ty Jerome takes a 1-year MLE are pretty small. He loses his Bird rights entirely. Unless his agent has a sure-thing arrangement the next year, he's not going anywhere that he's making less than the MLE for 3+ years.

The issue with teams offering Jerome more than the MLE is that that's an exceedingly short list of teams, and they have other places where they need to spend money. Current teams with actual cap space are Memphis (Aldama RFA and Morant/Bane/Pippen as their backcourt), Washington (eaten by draft pick cap hold and they have plenty of guards on the roster), Houston (but only if they cut FVV), Chicago (Giddey RFA), New Orleans (if they cut Zion), Detroit (who need to use cap to retain Beasley and THJ), and Brooklyn, by far the largest threat of teams currently with cap space if they don't tank next year.

And of the teams above, plenty will be looking for guards in the draft. 8 of the top 16 prospects (per tankathon's big board) are PGs or SGs: Harper, Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Fears, Jakucionis, Richardson, Demin, Traore. All of Washington, Houston, Brooklyn and Chicago could end up with a guard in the 1st round that fills any opening those teams have at the guard spot.

So outside of Brooklyn, most other teams that might want Jerome need to really target him rather than just sign him as the best available option. Other teams would need to clear cap space to get him.

Jerome is almost 28, so you don't know how much more you're getting out of him. He's not a pure PG, he's going to call his own number on drives rather than look to kick to open shooters. He's had injury issues throughout his career and fatigue was an issue late this season, prompting the Cavs to give him lots of rest/injury games off down the stretch. If I'm another team I'm not sure I'm counting on him as a starter.

Not really. He would have non-Bird Rights with his new team, and he could get a raise off his MLE salary going forward in a new deal with that team. But, if the idea is that he would bide a year while entering free agency in 2026, then Cleveland would likely still be unable to sign and trade him away as a 2nd apron team, or he’d leave for a cap space team, where Bird Rights wouldn’t matter anyway.

Hm, for some reason I didn't know about non-Bird rights. (Up to 120% of the salary of the one-year MLE contract.) Still, I don't see Jerome taking a short contract given he's 28, he's had one complete and good season in the league, he hasn't had great health luck in his career, and he's only up to $16m or so career earnings. This is his first and maybe his last big paycheck, I'd be asking for a 2+1 at a minimum.

[Texas Chuck]

I'd be pretty surprised if someone paid Jerome more than MLE and penciled him in as a starter. Nice re-trenching year, but he's playing 20 mpg off the bench on an elite team. That doesn't necessarily translate into similar success against starters with more defensive attention.

I'd be stunned if Brooklyn or Detroit wanted to make him the centerpiece of their off-season.

[jbk1234]

The circumstances where Ty Jerome takes a 1-year MLE are pretty small. He loses his Bird rights entirely. Unless his agent has a sure-thing arrangement the next year, he's not going anywhere that he's making less than the MLE for 3+ years.

The issue with teams offering Jerome more than the MLE is that that's an exceedingly short list of teams, and they have other places where they need to spend money. Current teams with actual cap space are Memphis (Aldama RFA and Morant/Bane/Pippen as their backcourt), Washington (eaten by draft pick cap hold and they have plenty of guards on the roster), Houston (but only if they cut FVV), Chicago (Giddey RFA), New Orleans (if they cut Zion), Detroit (who need to use cap to retain Beasley and THJ), and Brooklyn, by far the largest threat of teams currently with cap space if they don't tank next year.

And of the teams above, plenty will be looking for guards in the draft. 8 of the top 16 prospects (per tankathon's big board) are PGs or SGs: Harper, Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Fears, Jakucionis, Richardson, Demin, Traore. All of Washington, Houston, Brooklyn and Chicago could end up with a guard in the 1st round that fills any opening those teams have at the guard spot.

So outside of Brooklyn, most other teams that might want Jerome need to really target him rather than just sign him as the best available option. Other teams would need to clear cap space to get him.

Jerome is almost 28, so you don't know how much more you're getting out of him. He's not a pure PG, he's going to call his own number on drives rather than look to kick to open shooters. He's had injury issues throughout his career and fatigue was an issue late this season, prompting the Cavs to give him lots of rest/injury games off down the stretch. If I'm another team I'm not sure I'm counting on him as a starter.

Not really. He would have non-Bird Rights with his new team, and he could get a raise off his MLE salary going forward in a new deal with that team. But, if the idea is that he would bide a year while entering free agency in 2026, then Cleveland would likely still be unable to sign and trade him away as a 2nd apron team, or he’d leave for a cap space team, where Bird Rights wouldn’t matter anyway.

Hm, for some reason I didn't know about non-Bird rights. (Up to 120% of the salary of the one-year MLE contract.) Still, I don't see Jerome taking a short contract given he's 28, he's had one complete and good season in the league, he hasn't had great health luck in his career, and he's only up to $16m or so career earnings. This is his first and maybe his last big paycheck, I'd be asking for a 2+1 at a minimum.

The reason to take a one year deal is that, unlike this summer, the amount of cap space available in 2026 is going to be nuts, and it's not a situation where the majority of it will get cannibalized by young guys coming off of rookie deals either.

His last season in GS, he shot 39% from 3. This year he's killing it. Given his overall skillset, if he shoots that well next season, I suspect he'll get paid in the summer of 26.

[toooskies]

Not really. He would have non-Bird Rights with his new team, and he could get a raise off his MLE salary going forward in a new deal with that team. But, if the idea is that he would bide a year while entering free agency in 2026, then Cleveland would likely still be unable to sign and trade him away as a 2nd apron team, or he’d leave for a cap space team, where Bird Rights wouldn’t matter anyway.

Hm, for some reason I didn't know about non-Bird rights. (Up to 120% of the salary of the one-year MLE contract.) Still, I don't see Jerome taking a short contract given he's 28, he's had one complete and good season in the league, he hasn't had great health luck in his career, and he's only up to $16m or so career earnings. This is his first and maybe his last big paycheck, I'd be asking for a 2+1 at a minimum.

The reason to take a one year deal is that, unlike this summer, the amount of cap space available in 2026 is going to be nuts, and it's not a situation where the majority of it will get cannibalized by young guys coming off of rookie deals either.

His last season in GS, he shot 39% from 3. This year he's killing it. Given his overall skillset, if he shoots that well next season, I suspect he'll get paid in the summer of 26.

Sample size of 344 threes for Jerome for GS and CLE combined over the past three seasons.

Jalen Suggs took 385 threes last year and shot 39.7% on them. This year he shot 32%. We don't have a large sample size to know what's real.

A down year from Jerome next year (or just an injury) could have him back to minimum contracts.

[jbk1234]

Hm, for some reason I didn't know about non-Bird rights. (Up to 120% of the salary of the one-year MLE contract.) Still, I don't see Jerome taking a short contract given he's 28, he's had one complete and good season in the league, he hasn't had great health luck in his career, and he's only up to $16m or so career earnings. This is his first and maybe his last big paycheck, I'd be asking for a 2+1 at a minimum.

The reason to take a one year deal is that, unlike this summer, the amount of cap space available in 2026 is going to be nuts, and it's not a situation where the majority of it will get cannibalized by young guys coming off of rookie deals either.

His last season in GS, he shot 39% from 3. This year he's killing it. Given his overall skillset, if he shoots that well next season, I suspect he'll get paid in the summer of 26.

Sample size of 344 threes for Jerome for GS and CLE combined over the past three seasons.

Jalen Suggs took 385 threes last year and shot 39.7% on them. This year he shot 32%. We don't have a large sample size to know what's real.

A down year from Jerome next year (or just an injury) could have him back to minimum contracts.

Due to injury, he only played in 2 games his first season Cleveland so I'm not sure total attempts is the best barometer. He averages 6.5 3PA per 36 over the course of his career. He had one bad season in OKC in which he pushed that number up to 8.4, but even with that season, his career 3p% is 38%.

It's kind of the opposite of Suggs who only had one season where he shot well from 3 compared with 3 where he was pretty awful and his career average reflects that.

[Godaddycurse]

The reason to take a one year deal is that, unlike this summer, the amount of cap space available in 2026 is going to be nuts, and it's not a situation where the majority of it will get cannibalized by young guys coming off of rookie deals either.

His last season in GS, he shot 39% from 3. This year he's killing it. Given his overall skillset, if he shoots that well next season, I suspect he'll get paid in the summer of 26.

Sample size of 344 threes for Jerome for GS and CLE combined over the past three seasons.

Jalen Suggs took 385 threes last year and shot 39.7% on them. This year he shot 32%. We don't have a large sample size to know what's real.

A down year from Jerome next year (or just an injury) could have him back to minimum contracts.

Due to injury, he only played in 2 games his first season Cleveland so I'm not sure total attempts is the best barometer. He averages 6.5 3PA per 36 over the course of his career. He had one bad season in OKC in which he pushed that number up to 8.4, but even with that season, his career 3p% is 38%.

It's kind of the opposite of Suggs who only had one season where he shot well from 3 compared with 3 where he was pretty awful and his career average reflects that.

What if he doesn't stay healthy next year in a walk year? i think he should take the long term contract now and secure the bag.

[jbk1234]

Sample size of 344 threes for Jerome for GS and CLE combined over the past three seasons.

Jalen Suggs took 385 threes last year and shot 39.7% on them. This year he shot 32%. We don't have a large sample size to know what's real.

A down year from Jerome next year (or just an injury) could have him back to minimum contracts.

Due to injury, he only played in 2 games his first season Cleveland so I'm not sure total attempts is the best barometer. He averages 6.5 3PA per 36 over the course of his career. He had one bad season in OKC in which he pushed that number up to 8.4, but even with that season, his career 3p% is 38%.

It's kind of the opposite of Suggs who only had one season where he shot well from 3 compared with 3 where he was pretty awful and his career average reflects that.

What if he doesn't stay healthy next year in a walk year? i think he should take the long term contract now and secure the bag.

That's the obvious risk.

[toooskies]

The reason to take a one year deal is that, unlike this summer, the amount of cap space available in 2026 is going to be nuts, and it's not a situation where the majority of it will get cannibalized by young guys coming off of rookie deals either.

His last season in GS, he shot 39% from 3. This year he's killing it. Given his overall skillset, if he shoots that well next season, I suspect he'll get paid in the summer of 26.

Sample size of 344 threes for Jerome for GS and CLE combined over the past three seasons.

Jalen Suggs took 385 threes last year and shot 39.7% on them. This year he shot 32%. We don't have a large sample size to know what's real.

A down year from Jerome next year (or just an injury) could have him back to minimum contracts.

Due to injury, he only played in 2 games his first season Cleveland so I'm not sure total attempts is the best barometer. He averages 6.5 3PA per 36 over the course of his career. He had one bad season in OKC in which he pushed that number up to 8.4, but even with that season, his career 3p% is 38%.

It's kind of the opposite of Suggs who only had one season where he shot well from 3 compared with 3 where he was pretty awful and his career average reflects that.

Malik Beasley took more 3-pointers this season than Jerome has in his entire career. The question is whether you pay him like he's going to be a 44% 3-point shooter going forward, like he shot this year, or if you expect regression back to 40% or below.

If I want to pay Jerome like a starter, particularly in a situation where a team needs a lead guard, you have to take into account that currently he almost never has the other team's best point-of-attack defender on him. That guy's usually on Mitchell or Garland, who when healthy are sharing the court with him. There are also significant weapons on the wing like Hunter (or LeVert), Strus, or Merrill who have drawn good chaser wing defenders through the year.

Jerome has been great this year, I just don't know who's going to pay him starter money based on one real season of performance. I could see Brooklyn doing it, but they could go in a lot of directions depending on whether they want to capitalize on having their own draft pick next year.

[jbk1234]

Sample size of 344 threes for Jerome for GS and CLE combined over the past three seasons.

Jalen Suggs took 385 threes last year and shot 39.7% on them. This year he shot 32%. We don't have a large sample size to know what's real.

A down year from Jerome next year (or just an injury) could have him back to minimum contracts.

Due to injury, he only played in 2 games his first season Cleveland so I'm not sure total attempts is the best barometer. He averages 6.5 3PA per 36 over the course of his career. He had one bad season in OKC in which he pushed that number up to 8.4, but even with that season, his career 3p% is 38%.

It's kind of the opposite of Suggs who only had one season where he shot well from 3 compared with 3 where he was pretty awful and his career average reflects that.

Malik Beasley took more 3-pointers this season than Jerome has in his entire career. The question is whether you pay him like he's going to be a 44% 3-point shooter going forward, like he shot this year, or if you expect regression back to 40% or below.

If I want to pay Jerome like a starter, particularly in a situation where a team needs a lead guard, you have to take into account that currently he almost never has the other team's best point-of-attack defender on him. That guy's usually on Mitchell or Garland, who when healthy are sharing the court with him. There are also significant weapons on the wing like Hunter (or LeVert), Strus, or Merrill who have drawn good chaser wing defenders through the year.

Jerome has been great this year, I just don't know who's going to pay him starter money based on one real season of performance. I could see Brooklyn doing it, but they could go in a lot of directions depending on whether they want to capitalize on having their own draft pick next year.

There's a pretty big delta between the the MLE and however one might define starter money. With the cap expected to rise this year and next, $20M per should be considered reasonable 6th man money, especially for the guy who's probably going to win 6MOY.

[toooskies]

Due to injury, he only played in 2 games his first season Cleveland so I'm not sure total attempts is the best barometer. He averages 6.5 3PA per 36 over the course of his career. He had one bad season in OKC in which he pushed that number up to 8.4, but even with that season, his career 3p% is 38%.

It's kind of the opposite of Suggs who only had one season where he shot well from 3 compared with 3 where he was pretty awful and his career average reflects that.

Malik Beasley took more 3-pointers this season than Jerome has in his entire career. The question is whether you pay him like he's going to be a 44% 3-point shooter going forward, like he shot this year, or if you expect regression back to 40% or below.

If I want to pay Jerome like a starter, particularly in a situation where a team needs a lead guard, you have to take into account that currently he almost never has the other team's best point-of-attack defender on him. That guy's usually on Mitchell or Garland, who when healthy are sharing the court with him. There are also significant weapons on the wing like Hunter (or LeVert), Strus, or Merrill who have drawn good chaser wing defenders through the year.

Jerome has been great this year, I just don't know who's going to pay him starter money based on one real season of performance. I could see Brooklyn doing it, but they could go in a lot of directions depending on whether they want to capitalize on having their own draft pick next year.

There's a pretty big delta between the the MLE and however one might define starter money. With the cap expected to rise this year and next, $20M per should be considered reasonable 6th man money, especially for the guy who's probably going to win 6MOY.

I disagree that he's probably going to win 6MOY. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KMzwRcilLDej0BWl7eYE_OYC9Tx9olI_Ptn-nHjKfpQ/edit?gid=1082967899#gid=1082967899

$20m per year is really only in Brooklyn's capabilities without the acquiring team making multiple moves to get him. I don't think there's a case for anyone else, and I think there are clearer cases for other teams to just make trades rather than clear space-- KCP+Harris to POR for Simons makes more sense than whatever gymnastics Orlando might need to go through to have cap space for Jerome.