2025 NBA PLAYOFFS East First Round: #3 New York Knicks vs #6 Detroit Pistons (Series tied 1-1)

[FlatearthZorro]

I got the Knicks in 6 or 5 due to their experience and better ability to score the ball.

[Syd-TK3]

This series is guranteed to have a fight that's all I know

[cgf]

This series is guranteed to have a fight that's all I know

We gave PJ Tucker a contract for a reason

[bisme37]

[JujitsuFlip]

We could handle them and JB could have improved, those are not mutually exclusive.

I guess it just really depends what you think that looks like.

jb had the worst offense in the 2023 playoffs (101.9 ortg)

jb had a bottom 3 offense in the 2024 playoffs (104.7 ortg)

So are you saying the Pistons will have above a 104.7 ortg? Or saying the Pistons just won't be dead last (or maybe not bottom 3) in offense of the 16 playoff teams?

I'm saying that JB could do everything right, and we could still lock them down because we're just more talented. Beasley, Timmy, and Tobi were huge for them this year, but all 3 see their %s dip in the playoffs by 2-3%. Cade was a beast but has never been in the playoffs before. There will be fewer transition opportunities, and with Mitch back we could dominate the paint. So their offense could dry up without their coaching staff making a single wrong decision.

You're not quantifying it though.

The Pistons Ortg for the 2025 regular season was 114.6 an almost identical mark to jb's 2024 Cavs Ortg of 114.7

What does jb 'doing everything right' in this series look like, in your estimation? What value are you assigning to it so it's not just one guy's opinion vs another guy's opinion.

[cgf]

I guess it just really depends what you think that looks like.

jb had the worst offense in the 2023 playoffs (101.9 ortg)

jb had a bottom 3 offense in the 2024 playoffs (104.7 ortg)

So are you saying the Pistons will have above a 104.7 ortg? Or saying the Pistons just won't be dead last (or maybe not bottom 3) in offense of the 16 playoff teams?

I'm saying that JB could do everything right, and we could still lock them down because we're just more talented. Beasley, Timmy, and Tobi were huge for them this year, but all 3 see their %s dip in the playoffs by 2-3%. Cade was a beast but has never been in the playoffs before. There will be fewer transition opportunities, and with Mitch back we could dominate the paint. So their offense could dry up without their coaching staff making a single wrong decision.

You're not quantifying it though.

The Pistons Ortg for the 2025 regular season was 114.6 an almost identical mark to jb's 2024 Cavs Ortg of 114.7

What does jb 'doing everything right' in this series look like, in your estimation? What value are you assigning to it so it's not just one guy's opinion vs another guy's opinion.

I don't care enough to set actual parameters and measure this. I'm just trying to get you to admit that it is possible for coaches to improve and that maybe, just maybe, Bickerstaff has learned a thing or two from what went wrong in cleveland. I have no love for JB, though I have a bit of a soft spot for these pistons, and your hate-boner for him is odd.

If you hadn't felt compelled to argue about how hopelessly doomed the knicks were, I probably wouldn't have noticed, but we've gone back & forth often enough for me to clock that you can't help yourself with this the way you can't help yourself from keeping us out of your mouth. Is it just that you're irked by the attention he's taken away from Kenny in the COY discussions?

[JujitsuFlip]

I'm saying that JB could do everything right, and we could still lock them down because we're just more talented. Beasley, Timmy, and Tobi were huge for them this year, but all 3 see their %s dip in the playoffs by 2-3%. Cade was a beast but has never been in the playoffs before. There will be fewer transition opportunities, and with Mitch back we could dominate the paint. So their offense could dry up without their coaching staff making a single wrong decision.

You're not quantifying it though.

The Pistons Ortg for the 2025 regular season was 114.6 an almost identical mark to jb's 2024 Cavs Ortg of 114.7

What does jb 'doing everything right' in this series look like, in your estimation? What value are you assigning to it so it's not just one guy's opinion vs another guy's opinion.

I don't care enough to set actual parameters and measure this. I'm just trying to get you to admit that it is possible for coaches to improve and that maybe, just maybe, Bickerstaff has learned a thing or two from what went wrong in cleveland. I have no love for JB, though I have a bit of a soft spot for these pistons, and your hate-boner for him is odd.

If you hadn't felt compelled to argue about how hopelessly doomed the knicks were, I probably wouldn't have noticed, but we've gone back & forth often enough for me to clock that you can't help yourself with this the way you can't help yourself from keeping us out of your mouth. Is it just that you're irked by the attention he's taken away from Kenny in the COY discussions?

Nah Kenny has COY locked.

We'll just see how the series plays out, i assume jb still sucks as a post season coach but we'll just let the series play out, see where the Ortg and player rotation falls.

[cgf]

You're not quantifying it though.

The Pistons Ortg for the 2025 regular season was 114.6 an almost identical mark to jb's 2024 Cavs Ortg of 114.7

What does jb 'doing everything right' in this series look like, in your estimation? What value are you assigning to it so it's not just one guy's opinion vs another guy's opinion.

I don't care enough to set actual parameters and measure this. I'm just trying to get you to admit that it is possible for coaches to improve and that maybe, just maybe, Bickerstaff has learned a thing or two from what went wrong in cleveland. I have no love for JB, though I have a bit of a soft spot for these pistons, and your hate-boner for him is odd.

If you hadn't felt compelled to argue about how hopelessly doomed the knicks were, I probably wouldn't have noticed, but we've gone back & forth often enough for me to clock that you can't help yourself with this the way you can't help yourself from keeping us out of your mouth. Is it just that you're irked by the attention he's taken away from Kenny in the COY discussions?

Nah Kenny has COY locked.

We'll just see how the series plays out, i assume jb still sucks as a post season coach but we'll just let the series play out, see where the Ortg and player rotation falls.

Was that so hard? Did you need to be a d*** and try to rain on Pistons' fans parade for months?

[tmorgan]

It’s debatable whether we have less total talent than the Knicks, but it’s not debatable whether we have less healthy, developed talent. With Ivey out and so many rotation players still on rookie contracts (Cade, Holland, Ausar, Duren), we’re clearly lacking experience.

It’ll take a lot of things going right to win this series. New York is rightly favored about 4 to 1 by most lines.

We won’t roll over, though. If New York doesn’t play hard and play their best lineups a lot of minutes (lol, like that’s a Thibs problem) and starts thinking about Boston instead, even an early 2-0 lead won’t be safe. These Pistons are talented. A bit green, but talented. I hope Holland does some good things on the big stage, I think he’s a big key to the future.

[oldncreaky]

I’ll paraphrase something I wrote on the home board….

This series is firmly on KAT’s shoulders. Duren does not defend stretch bigs worth a damn, so KAT needs to shoot on Duren and try and get Stewart in foul trouble, leaving more minutes for Duren. Stewart, if he keeps himself in check, can hang with Towns all over the court. Duren cannot, and is also an inferior help defender and rim protector. Stew will get half the minutes if he needs to for our defense.

KAT is prone to dumbass offensive fouls and silly reaches on defense, especially in the playoffs. If he takes himself out of games, New York will be in real trouble.

Brunson isn’t fully healthy. He may get there with the time off, he may not. Even if he does, Ausar will try to lock him down, and if Ausar gets in trouble, we still have Holland and Cade, bigger guys to give him trouble. The NY wings need to take and hit shots.

I expect both Bridges and Harris to be non-factors. Both of these guys are “iron men” for a particular reason — they avoid physical play, contested rebounds, and contact in general. This series will be physical, and I bet they both get relegated to minor roles.

Can OG slow down Cade and play enough foul-free minutes to do so? Cade is a tough cover, his high post live dribble game is hard to defend. Detroit will need it, because transition buckets will be scarce. Someone needs to shoot well — Beasley, THJ, somebody. Might happen, might not. One good thing — Beasley has zero fear and is a tough shot taker (and sometimes maker).

Should be a good series.

Excellent post

I'll raise two more factors that tilt towards the Knicks and why their collective playoff experience matters
1. Fouls. Let's face it, the PS are always called differently than the RS, and it usually takes players a series or two to adjust
2. Half-court focus. A Pistons advantage on the break is less important in the PS because the game slows down

We also have a bunch of vets (Harris, Schroeder, THJ, Beasley) in our rotation with a track record of shrinking in the playoffs more often than not, so I'll be surprised if more than 1 of these 4 guys play up to their RS numbers/level.

I am pessimistic, and have the Knicks in 5: it will take Cade going nuclear to do more than steal a game. Oh, and given our guard rotation with Ivey out, I think Cade will have to play 45+ minutes a game for us to be competitive.

But it will all be a great learning experience for our youngsters, and hopefully act as an inflection point for the franchise, where a core of youngsters get a taste and commit to doing what it takes to turn into a successful playoff team

[cgf]

Will we see the KAT-Robinson lineup? You need Mitch for this matchup. Detroit is a physical, defensively-minded team.

Unless Thibs runs a 10-man rotation, we'll see some of it. The question is how much and whether that's with Brunson or only when Towns is out there with the bench guys. I'm really hoping that we see Thibs testing the twin towers with the starters, but that's likely going to be a question of necessity.

[cgf]

Well there aren't any teams with better records than those teams for them to beat haha.

Right and the only teams with a better record than the Knicks are the 3 teams you mentioned plus Houston.

Fair point. But I believe that hasn't been the case all season, and the stat is they have only 1 win vs a team with a better record at the time of that game.

Your post makes me realize that is less insane than I was thinking though, so thanks.

Looking through our schedule, I don't think that's right. Just checking some games I thought might qualify, we beat:

IND when we were 0-1 & they were 1-0;
MIA when we were 1-2 & they were 2-1;
PHX when we were 8-6 & they were 9-6;
DEN when we were 9-7 & they were 9-6;
ORL when we were 12-8 & they were 15-7, and again
ORL when we were 15-10 & they were 17-10;
MEM when we were 30-16 & they were 31-15...we were both at 38-20 the second time;
HOU when we were 32-17 & they were 32-16.

So that's at least 8 wins against teams who had better records when the game started + 1 against a team with an identical record

[megarover]

I'm going to say Knicks in 6. Cade will get them 2 games

[zeebneeb]

I’ll paraphrase something I wrote on the home board….

This series is firmly on KAT’s shoulders. Duren does not defend stretch bigs worth a damn, so KAT needs to shoot on Duren and try and get Stewart in foul trouble, leaving more minutes for Duren. Stewart, if he keeps himself in check, can hang with Towns all over the court. Duren cannot, and is also an inferior help defender and rim protector. Stew will get half the minutes if he needs to for our defense.

KAT is prone to dumbass offensive fouls and silly reaches on defense, especially in the playoffs. If he takes himself out of games, New York will be in real trouble.

Brunson isn’t fully healthy. He may get there with the time off, he may not. Even if he does, Ausar will try to lock him down, and if Ausar gets in trouble, we still have Holland and Cade, bigger guys to give him trouble. The NY wings need to take and hit shots.

I expect both Bridges and Harris to be non-factors. Both of these guys are “iron men” for a particular reason — they avoid physical play, contested rebounds, and contact in general. This series will be physical, and I bet they both get relegated to minor roles.

Can OG slow down Cade and play enough foul-free minutes to do so? Cade is a tough cover, his high post live dribble game is hard to defend. Detroit will need it, because transition buckets will be scarce. Someone needs to shoot well — Beasley, THJ, somebody. Might happen, might not. One good thing — Beasley has zero fear and is a tough shot taker (and sometimes maker).

Should be a good series.

Excellent post

I'll raise two more factors that tilt towards the Knicks and why their collective playoff experience matters
1. Fouls. Let's face it, the PS are always called differently than the RS, and it usually takes players a series or two to adjust
2. Half-court focus. A Pistons advantage on the break is less important in the PS because the game slows down

We also have a bunch of vets (Harris, Schroeder, THJ, Beasley) in our rotation with a track record of shrinking in the playoffs more often than not, so I'll be surprised if more than 1 of these 4 guys play up to their RS numbers/level.

I am pessimistic, and have the Knicks in 5: it will take Cade going nuclear to do more than steal a game. Oh, and given our guard rotation with Ivey out, I think Cade will have to play 45+ minutes a game for us to be competitive.

But it will all be a great learning experience for our youngsters, and hopefully act as an inflection point for the franchise, where a core of youngsters get a taste and commit to doing what it takes to turn into a successful playoff team

This is also an excellent post. I'd bet the vast majority of Piston fans, especially here, don't expect the Pistons to win. They see that this Pistons team matches up well with the Knicks, but the lack of experience is palpable. We also have no idea how the kids are going to perform. Everyone is talking about Cade, and how he might perform,(rightfully so. He's an all-nba candidate)but no one is talking about Duren/Ausar/Holland/Stewart. I expect, at bare minimum, one of them to be a dear in the headlights.

Now, with all that said, another thing no one seems to be talking about, is the trial by hellish fire, all of them, except Holland, has endured last season, and prior seasons. Losing season after season. Losing 28 games in a row, is also experience, and one none of them ever want to repeat, and has made them tough as nails.

That to me, is the x-factor in this series. How sick is this group of losing. Not one player in the league today, except the players on the team last year, has ever endured anything like that. 28 game losing streak. That kind of failure changes a man. It either hardens them(Pistons lead the league in fouls, and technical fouls)or makes them give up.

We'll see how they react to adversity in the playoffs, because they've had a boatload of it already.

[Han Solo]

I’ll die on this hill. No disrespect to Knicks either. Sucks it’s them.

But this will be the series that puts Cade Cunningham on the map. Pistons going to knock out NY. In 6. Saying it here. So I can bump at the end.

Good luck though NY. Hope it’s a fun series.

Hope Beef Stew keeps his cool. He is an elite rim defender. Even at his size. We need him on the floor this series when Duren is out.

For the people saying we don’t have enough offense, you’re kind of right. But the Pistons when they are cooking, can light anyone up. Even without Ivey.

[LFGK]

I’ll die on this hill. No disrespect to Knicks either. Sucks it’s them.

But this will be the series that puts Cade Cunningham on the map. Pistons going to knock out NY. In 6. Saying it here. So I can bump at the end.

Good luck though NY. Hope it’s a fun series.

Hope Beef Stew keeps his cool. He is an elite rim defender. Even at his size. We need him on the floor this series when Duren is out.

For the people saying we don’t have enough offense, you’re kind of right. But the Pistons when they are cooking, can light anyone up. Even without Ivey.

OG is going to have Cade working for everything he gets, people talking all sorts of nonsense. Knicks in 5

[aad]

I got pistons in 6

[TravisScott55]

Cant wait for this series.

[LakersSoul]

This series is guranteed to have a fight that's all I know

Fight and a V dangerous game/opponent.

Knicks better play smart or they gonna exit round 1. Cade is a emerging SuperStar!

[breezypeezy]

Pistons in 6.

Due to the importance of playoff experience, its possible for the Knicks to win one or two games in this series.

I dont think playoff pressure will handicap Cade at all.

Hes been training and crafting his game for this moment his entire life, cue up "8 Mile".