2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #2 Houston Rockets vs #7 Golden State Warriors (Series tied 1-1)

[dakomish23]

Is it a warning sign for GSW or for HOU that Curry & Butler showed they can elevate their games this high to carry their squad?

[bisme37]

Warriors have to be thinking this worked out pretty well for them. If they'd won the final game of the RS they'd be playing Lakers in the 1st round. If they lost last night but won Friday they'd be playing the Thunder. And of course if they lost Friday they'd be at home.

Rockets are no pushovers and I'm expecting a good series, but I think this matchup is the best GSW could have hoped for. Dubs will have a huge experience advantage, and probably the two best playoff performers on either team.

[TravisScott55]

Rockets are a really good team, but I worry about their crunch time scoring

[gmoney411]

The athletes in Houston are going to be a headache. The coaching matchup isn’t as lopsided as the resumes suggest. But counting Steven Adams who probably won’t play, the Rockets have 140 games of playoff experience. Draymond Green has 157. Dubs in 7.

What are you watching from the Rockets or Warriors that would tell you Steven Adams isn't playing?

Several things...

History. Rotations shrink this time of year. Down to about 8 regulars. I'm thinking the 5 starters plus Smith, Eason and Holiday. I wouldn't be surprised if Tate plays ahead of Adams.
The opponent. They're going to shrink their rotation too. That means 40 minutes of Curry. If you're Udoka, who do you want switching onto Curry 35 feet from the basket? Or chasing him off ball? I know who the Warriors would love to see.
The Warriors/Rockets game 2 weeks ago. When Adams was in, Draymond Green mucked up the paint. When the Rockets were 5 out, they gave the Warriors fits.

For the record, I think Adams is in the 8 man rotation vs all the other playoff teams. This is just the worst possible matchup someone whose strengths are size and rebounding. For Houston to have a shot, they have to run GS to exhaustion. I'll split the difference with you. Barring foul trouble, I expect Adams to be limited to 6-8 Sengun rest or other situational minutes.

Adams will be in the rotation and will play minutes with Sengun. Switching on to Adams is almost no different for the Rockets than switching on Sengun. The rebounding advantage the Rockets have with Sengun/Adams really helps their offense.

[CIN-C-STAR]

The Dubs lack of outside shooting aside from Steph seems like a problem to me.
Rockets might be able to hard hedge or even blitz him on ball screens, stay home on Jimmy and get away with it. Dray is a great playmaker but that puts a lot of pressure on Moody, Podz and Payton to hit shots.
Of course Ime played it completely opposite in the Finals against Dubz, choosing to switch and leave his center on Steph, and even though they lost it worked pretty well. The Rockets don’t have a center like Robert Williams but hav a bevy of good athletic defenders to put on Dray for the switch, and can leave Sengun on Payton.
This is the most intriguing first round matchup to me. For Golden State to win they will likely have to steal games late, but idk Ime just instills confidence in his young guys.
I’ll go Rockets in 7.

[MoreyWins]

The athletes in Houston are going to be a headache. The coaching matchup isn’t as lopsided as the resumes suggest. But counting Steven Adams who probably won’t play, the Rockets have 140 games of playoff experience. Draymond Green has 157. Dubs in 7.

What are you watching from the Rockets or Warriors that would tell you Steven Adams isn't playing?

Several things...

History. Rotations shrink this time of year. Down to about 8 regulars. I'm thinking the 5 starters plus Smith, Eason and Holiday. I wouldn't be surprised if Tate plays ahead of Adams.
The opponent. They're going to shrink their rotation too. That means 40 minutes of Curry. If you're Udoka, who do you want switching onto Curry 35 feet from the basket? Or chasing him off ball? I know who the Warriors would love to see.
The Warriors/Rockets game 2 weeks ago. When Adams was in, Draymond Green mucked up the paint. When the Rockets were 5 out, they gave the Warriors fits.

For the record, I think Adams is in the 8 man rotation vs all the other playoff teams. This is just the worst possible matchup someone whose strengths are size and rebounding. For Houston to have a shot, they have to run GS to exhaustion. I'll split the difference with you. Barring foul trouble, I expect Adams to be limited to 6-8 Sengun rest or other situational minutes.

-- Fred, Green, Brooks, Thompson, Sengun, Adams, Jabari, Eason is the core eight man rotation Ime has gone to for every high leverage game. He'll obviously make adjustments and put Holiday or Tate in for certain situations, but they're dubbed the "stay ready" crew for a reason.

-- The Rockets have plenty of guys who can chase or shadow Stephen Curry. You're caught up on the Rockets having centers switched onto Curry, when that rarely ever happens. There are actions the defense can take to prevent switches.

-- If you're interested in seeing some clips of Adams playing against the Warriors two weeks ago, I have it here: https://youtu.be/1d2Sbd-loHo?t=378

-- Adams finished a +7 that game and if you've watched any Warriors game, good centers are capable of feasting around the rim on both ends. Zubac or Edey couldn't get played off the floor no matter how small the Warriors tried to go. The Warriors aren't the same shooting team as before, their spacing is vastly different from other championship Warriors teams. Idk what you think you saw Draymond do against Adams, but he wasn't good that game.

[MoreyWins]

Is it a warning sign for GSW or for HOU that Curry & Butler showed they can elevate their games this high to carry their squad?

It doesn't mean much. The way the full-strength Rockets defend Steph is vastly different than how the rest of the league does. Butler is Butler, he'll get his points just by playing off of Steph and getting to the line. As long as neither go nuclear from three then the game will always be in Houston's reach.

[megarover]

Bro Kumings getting a DNP to Santos is very telling. Will he even play this series?

[dakomish23]

Is it a warning sign for GSW or for HOU that Curry & Butler showed they can elevate their games this high to carry their squad?

It doesn't mean much. The way the full-strength Rockets defend Steph is vastly different than how the rest of the league does. Butler is Butler, he'll get his points just by playing off of Steph and getting to the line. As long as neither go nuclear from three then the game will always be in Houston's reach.

That would mean it's a warning sign for GSW

[ShootersShoot]

Warriors have arguably the two best players. Both teams have an elite defender and have stingy defenses. Hou should have a huge advantage on the boards.

Warriors stars have more experience, but they have pretty inexperienced starters in moody and podz as well.

Should be an interesting matchup.

[HotRocks34]

Rockets. To stop the Dubs you have to stop Steph and Houston has shown they can do that.

Also, Houston is big and I don't know if Golden State can handle that size.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Warriors win but I think Houston will win if both teams are reasonably healthy.

[multo]

Bro Kumings getting a DNP to Santos is very telling. Will he even play this series?

It's about match ups. He will play against the Rockets. He averaged 20 against them during the reg season.

[Twinkie defense]

This would seem to be a tough, hard-fought series, probably going six or seven games.

Rockets are young, big, and athletic. Warriors are smart, wily, and experienced. Two excellent coaches.

Warriors are not really a seven seed - since acquiring Jimmy Butler they have the League's third-best winning percentage, and the #1 defense.

Warriors in seven.

[Twinkie defense]

GS in 6. HOU doesn't have the offense to keep up with Curry and/or Butler.

Before they rested essentially their rotation for 3 games the Rockets were top 10 in both offence and defence, and even including those their offence finished 12th. Warriors finished 16th.

Why did you exclude the last three games for the Rockets but include all the non-Jimmy Butler Warriors games?

The Warriors are a different team since acquiring Jimmy Butler: 120.7 offensive rating (7th) and 111.0 defensive rating (1st) for a net rating of +9.7 (3rd). That's over 31 games - so not a tiny sample - and those games did not include Steph and Jimmy every night.

Warriors improved from 10th place in the West (at 25-26) to 7th place (at 48-34). A bunch of guys who were starters are gone or on the bench now (Melton, Wiggins, Schröder, Kuminga, TJD). It's two different teams.

BTW I don't understand why Rockets would rest the team for three games to end the season, they are young, they're getting a break before game one anyway. I'd think you'd want to go into your playoff series hot, not rusty and lethargic

[Johnny Tomala]

Warriors in 6.

[durden_tyler]

Rockets defense is made for playoff play, while i predicted Warriors in 6, won’t be surprised if this actually reaches Game 7….

[Twinkie defense]

Didn't Amen shut down Curry last time they played? Held him to like 3 points I want to say.

Yes that’s why we’re seeing Steph average 30 this series


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Can you break that down for me? How much tape of Amen have you seen?

I don't care who it is, no one guy can shut down Stephen Curry on a consistent basis. And they don't call him the Petty King for nothing - he will come out to avenge his poor showing. I don't say that to mean Steph is going to average 30 points, just that he's not going to get shut down because Amen held him to three one night.

[littlerock2277]

Is their any stats showing how young teams fair in the playoffs? I always feel like young teams that surprise and make it to the playoffs, tend to struggle their first go around in the playoffs.

[Twinkie defense]

The athletes in Houston are going to be a headache. The coaching matchup isn’t as lopsided as the resumes suggest. But counting Steven Adams who probably won’t play, the Rockets have 140 games of playoff experience. Draymond Green has 157. Dubs in 7.

Steven Adams is 100% going to play. The double big lineup has been great for Houston.

I love Steven Adams but I think the Warriors will like that matchup and will switch Adams onto Curry way out on the perimeter over and over.

[Twinkie defense]

You're caught up on the Rockets having centers switched onto Curry, when that rarely ever happens. There are actions the defense can take to prevent switches.

Meh. If you don't switch you're gonna give a lot of space and time for a guy like Curry to get his shot off.

Especially in the playoffs, both teams are going to be looking to get their offensive players switched into advantageous matchups.