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**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

Moderators: KingDavid, MettaWorldPanda, Wiltside, IggieCC, BFRESH44, QUIZ, heat4life

Who's the guard pick if all available at 20?

Poll ended at Thu Jun 26, 2025 1:35 pm

Jase Richardson
2
9%
Nolan Traore
4
17%
Walter Clayton Jr
14
61%
Ben Saraf
3
13%
 
Total votes: 23

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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#461 » by Wiltside » Mon Apr 14, 2025 3:10 am

lastb1ckman wrote:Just had a thought about Jase Richardson. If he really works out and has more on ball juice and passing than he was able to show at Michigan, could he work next to Herro as a lite version of Mitchell and Garland? Especially if Bam and Wares 3s and scoring improve next season.


If he can defend, then yes, absolutely.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#462 » by greg4012 » Mon Apr 14, 2025 2:52 pm

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Jeremiah Fears is represented by Mike Miller and is training with him for the draft
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#463 » by lastb1ckman » Mon Apr 14, 2025 4:42 pm

Wiltside wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:Just had a thought about Jase Richardson. If he really works out and has more on ball juice and passing than he was able to show at Michigan, could he work next to Herro as a lite version of Mitchell and Garland? Especially if Bam and Wares 3s and scoring improve next season.


If he can defend, then yes, absolutely.


Statically and eye test wise it seems like he's not bad. The problem he's 6'3" at MOST.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#464 » by greg4012 » Mon Apr 14, 2025 4:52 pm

lastb1ckman wrote:
Wiltside wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:Just had a thought about Jase Richardson. If he really works out and has more on ball juice and passing than he was able to show at Michigan, could he work next to Herro as a lite version of Mitchell and Garland? Especially if Bam and Wares 3s and scoring improve next season.


If he can defend, then yes, absolutely.


Statically and eye test wise it seems like he's not bad. The problem he's 6'3" at MOST.


Def hoping for a 6'6+ wingspan to at least start checking boxes that can make me feel OK about that fit. Seems like he proved passable on defense this season but not disruptive and not really projecting to be an impact defender or multiple position defender.

It's a similar concern with just about all the projected lottery PGs of interest tho (aside from Harper)
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#465 » by DayofMourning » Tue Apr 15, 2025 4:40 pm

Since we drafted Bam, weve been on a run of drafting very well. Especially when you consider our draft slotting:

2017-14th
2019-13th
2020-20th
2022-27th
2023-18th
2024-15th

For many of us, the players drafted at those spots are our favorites on the team. First team all rookies. Current award winners. Finalists.

Thats impressive.

Makes me really excited to continue our success in this draft with two (currently) top 18 picks.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#466 » by wadenation305 » Tue Apr 15, 2025 8:27 pm

Fears are a pipe dream. We need a lot of dumb teams to pass him up before he gets to us. But crazier things have happened.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#467 » by lastb1ckman » Tue Apr 15, 2025 8:36 pm

How do you guys feel about Labaron Philon with the Warriors pick? He seems like he's climbing draft boards right now.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#468 » by DayofMourning » Tue Apr 15, 2025 8:37 pm

wadenation305 wrote:Fears are a pipe dream. We need a lot of dumb teams to pass him up before he gets to us. But crazier things have happened.


I fear hes going to be gone b4 we pick at 11 as well. You know hes going into a gym and lighting it up.

Need to jump into the top 4.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#469 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Apr 16, 2025 10:56 am

GSW now with closure at the 18th pick. Not bad
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#470 » by DayofMourning » Wed Apr 16, 2025 11:14 am

MettaWorldPanda wrote:GSW now with closure at the 18th pick. Not bad


GSW ended up tied with 2 other teams, so a random drawing will be held to determine slotting.

Looking at 18-20.

Better than 23rd or whatever they were at one point.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#471 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Apr 16, 2025 11:29 am

DayofMourning wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:GSW now with closure at the 18th pick. Not bad


GSW ended up tied with 2 other teams, so a random drawing will be held to determine slotting.

Looking at 18-20.

Better than 23rd or whatever they were at one point.

Wonderful. I’m sure it will be 20 then. Still not terrible i guess.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#472 » by greg4012 » Wed Apr 16, 2025 1:28 pm

lastb1ckman wrote:How do you guys feel about Labaron Philon with the Warriors pick? He seems like he's climbing draft boards right now.


Consider me intrigued. Hard to know what to make of him fully. He flashed a lot without showing enough to be fully confident in any of it. But, all the while was a very positive contributor on a quality Alabama team with a ton of upperclassmen depth. He had to take a backseat to Mark Sears all season which somewhat limited his ability to shine.

Positive flashes:

- Floor general/distributor (25% Asst percentage and better than 2:1 asst/to ratio while playing 2nd fiddle to Sears on ball)
- Paint penetrator/slasher - over 43% of his scoring at the rim (mostly self-created)
- Defensive potential (immediately was a positive player on both sides of the ball for Alabama--highest DBPM among starters)
- Shooting trending in right direction (over 80% ft shooter since Feb; 38% 3 pt shooter over last 9 games)

Solid size with a solid PG game. Just decent but functional athleticism. I like his court presence and floor game. Would love him if he was more explosive or already was a reliable 3pt shooter.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#473 » by lastb1ckman » Wed Apr 16, 2025 2:21 pm

greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:How do you guys feel about Labaron Philon with the Warriors pick? He seems like he's climbing draft boards right now.


Consider me intrigued. Hard to know what to make of him fully. He flashed a lot without showing enough to be fully confident in any of it. But, all the while was a very positive contributor on a quality Alabama team with a ton of upperclassmen depth. He had to take a backseat to Mark Sears all season which somewhat limited his ability to shine.

Positive flashes:

- Floor general/distributor (25% Asst percentage and better than 2:1 asst/to ratio while playing 2nd fiddle to Sears on ball)
- Paint penetrator/slasher - over 43% of his scoring at the rim (mostly self-created)
- Defensive potential (immediately was a positive player on both sides of the ball for Alabama--highest DBPM among starters)
- Shooting trending in right direction (over 80% ft shooter since Feb; 38% 3 pt shooter over last 9 games)

Solid size with a solid PG game. Just decent but functional athleticism. I like his court presence and floor game. Would love him if he was more explosive or already was a reliable 3pt shooter.


Decent size, good handles, great body control, relentless on offense and defense. Normally a guy like this is a junior or senior, but he's only a freshman. If we didn't get a pg at 11, I'd love getting him at 18. Exactly the type of player the Heat would love and mold into a starter. Plus we'd actually have a role for him, since with our lack of playable pgs. He could actually play on ball instead of getting forced into the off guard role on most teams in this range.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#474 » by DayofMourning » Wed Apr 16, 2025 4:43 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#475 » by greg4012 » Wed Apr 16, 2025 5:54 pm

Additional note on Philon--he has promising numbers with regards to looking at Offensive Engine metrics (see my prior post below). Especially considering his lower usage (20.9%) while deferring to Mark Sears (26.9%).

greg4012 wrote:Given Miami's needs and the desire to target offensive upside as a priority this draft cycle, I've been increasingly paying attention to all flashes/indicators of a prospect proving able to CREATE offense. Miami needs more of that--most teams usually benefit from more of that. Below is a simple chart showing the percentage of FGM by a prospect that were unassisted (aka self-created), the player's assist percentage (percentage of teammate FGs a player assisted while they were on the floor), and the sum of both of those numbers--which I've deemed their OFFENSIVE ENGINE SCORE.

This only means so much in isolation, but I def think it's a useful reference point to combine with everything else (defense, efficiency, shooting, size, skillset, age etc) to better understand how much each player has successfully functioned as the source of offensive creation for their team. Naturally, the smaller guards are usually going to have higher scores here.

Image

Note: I don't have self-creation data for international prospects so it's just NCAA prospects.


The players in the above chart with similar usage to Philon (around 20%) all had much lower creation/offensive engine scores:

Philon - 90
Richardson - 61
Knueppel - 60
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#476 » by MartyConlonJr » Wed Apr 16, 2025 7:34 pm

DayofMourning wrote:Since we drafted Bam, weve been on a run of drafting very well. Especially when you consider our draft slotting:

2017-14th
2019-13th
2020-20th
2022-27th
2023-18th
2024-15th

For many of us, the players drafted at those spots are our favorites on the team. First team all rookies. Current award winners. Finalists.

Thats impressive.

Makes me really excited to continue our success in this draft with two (currently) top 18 picks.


I had to go back to look at 2020 and the #20 pick. Precious Achiuwa...

Not sure you can have that on the list when Maxey follows him directly, especially given our usual Kentucky desires. But I didn't realise that following him were Quickley, Pritchard and Desmond Bane.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#477 » by HeatingUp3 » Thu Apr 17, 2025 5:15 am

I dont understand what are our odds to win the lottery? And if we are getting into the playoffs then the chances go down?
Or the pick goes the OKC
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#478 » by DayofMourning » Thu Apr 17, 2025 10:32 am

MartyConlonJr wrote:
DayofMourning wrote:Since we drafted Bam, weve been on a run of drafting very well. Especially when you consider our draft slotting:

2017-14th
2019-13th
2020-20th
2022-27th
2023-18th
2024-15th

For many of us, the players drafted at those spots are our favorites on the team. First team all rookies. Current award winners. Finalists.

Thats impressive.

Makes me really excited to continue our success in this draft with two (currently) top 18 picks.


I had to go back to look at 2020 and the #20 pick. Precious Achiuwa...

Not sure you can have that on the list when Maxey follows him directly, especially given our usual Kentucky desires. But I didn't realise that following him were Quickley, Pritchard and Desmond Bane.


Every year besides that one has been solid at least.

I remember being incredibly averse to Precious as a prospect. The size and accompanying skill didnt make sense to me. The Heat liked him though and were on a roll with their recent picks. They knew better.

In the end, it came at a time when we were making bad decisions and we got what we deserved.

However, if only one draft, with a 20th pick, ends up being the sole negative out of 6 drafts, then Id say you are an extremely good drafting team.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#479 » by RexBoyWonder » Thu Apr 17, 2025 1:01 pm

I have to hop off the tank for this Friday game - I rather lose the pick this year but don't have that debt of an UNPROTECTED pick to OKC next year.

Get the GSW pick this draft, convey the our pick to OKC this year, then get the best the scorer we can get at 18-20 with the GSW pick, then keep our pick next year, where we might end up in the mid lottery.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#480 » by RexBoyWonder » Thu Apr 17, 2025 1:03 pm

IF we do fck up once again and lost to Hawks and keep the pick -

Fears and Richardson are the only ones I can get excited about, they both look like they might be able to be real offensive creators in the NBA.

No more role players ffs.
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