2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #2 Houston Rockets vs #7 Golden State Warriors (Series tied 1-1)

[gmoney411]

The athletes in Houston are going to be a headache. The coaching matchup isn’t as lopsided as the resumes suggest. But counting Steven Adams who probably won’t play, the Rockets have 140 games of playoff experience. Draymond Green has 157. Dubs in 7.

Steven Adams is 100% going to play. The double big lineup has been great for Houston.

I love Steven Adams but I think the Warriors will like that matchup and will switch Adams onto Curry way out on the perimeter over and over.

I don't doubt they will but they won't always get the switch and some of the double big minutes might come while Curry is resting.

[MoreyWins]

You're caught up on the Rockets having centers switched onto Curry, when that rarely ever happens. There are actions the defense can take to prevent switches.

Meh. If you don't switch you're gonna give a lot of space and time for a guy like Curry to get his shot off.

Especially in the playoffs, both teams are going to be looking to get their offensive players switched into advantageous matchups.

In this hypothetical scenario we're talking about, why would the Rockets need to switch Sengun or Adams onto Curry? Their primary matchup will either be GP2 or Looney. When the Rockets are in man, there's no reason to give up a switch on a Curry-Looney/GP2 pick and roll. You're better off trapping Curry and giving up the short roll pass than letting Curry play in isolation all night against bigs. If my options are a GP2-Looney floater or Curry rhythm three, I'll take the floater.

[lpbman]

Rockets in 6.

Rockets beat them up game one, cruising win in game two, high scoring game Curry and Jimmy get 60, 7 Rockets in double figures.
Close Warriors win for game three. Warriors beat the Rockets starters early, bench makes it interesting late, but Warriors win game 4 by double digits, Curry with like 45 points.
Rockets clamp Curry in the last two games, out of gas, Jimmy goes for ~30 and Rockets win the last two... Kuminga/Podz/whoever, one of them shows out in game 6 to no avail. 4 ejections between Brooks and Draymond.

It's a bad matchup for the Warriors. Rockets have size and an insane defensive attack dog to sick on Curry.

[DB23]

One thing I’m hoping for as a dubs fan is that I’m not sure the rockets have another gear to go to.

They play their hearts out in the regular season but don’t think they can really play better than what they showed. Whereas the dubs do have another level to potentially reach in Terms of energy + playoff jimmy.

That’s what I’m hoping anyway!

[Twinkie defense]

You're caught up on the Rockets having centers switched onto Curry, when that rarely ever happens. There are actions the defense can take to prevent switches.

Meh. If you don't switch you're gonna give a lot of space and time for a guy like Curry to get his shot off.

Especially in the playoffs, both teams are going to be looking to get their offensive players switched into advantageous matchups.

In this hypothetical scenario we're talking about, why would the Rockets need to switch Sengun or Adams onto Curry? Their primary matchup will either be GP2 or Looney. When the Rockets are in man, there's no reason to give up a switch on a Curry-Looney/GP2 pick and roll. You're better off trapping Curry and giving up the short roll pass than letting Curry play in isolation all night against bigs. If my options are a GP2-Looney floater or Curry rhythm three, I'll take the floater.

Looney? He's gonna be the third or fourth guy off the bench. Those guys are gonna be on Draymond or Jimmy, the Warriors' starting five and four.

[MoreyWins]

Meh. If you don't switch you're gonna give a lot of space and time for a guy like Curry to get his shot off.

Especially in the playoffs, both teams are going to be looking to get their offensive players switched into advantageous matchups.

In this hypothetical scenario we're talking about, why would the Rockets need to switch Sengun or Adams onto Curry? Their primary matchup will either be GP2 or Looney. When the Rockets are in man, there's no reason to give up a switch on a Curry-Looney/GP2 pick and roll. You're better off trapping Curry and giving up the short roll pass than letting Curry play in isolation all night against bigs. If my options are a GP2-Looney floater or Curry rhythm three, I'll take the floater.

Looney? He's gonna be the third or fourth guy off the bench. Those guys are gonna be on Draymond or Jimmy, the Warriors' starting five and four.

Watch on YouTube

The players you see Sengun & Adams guard the most: Moody, Looney, GP2. If they're not guarding those players then you'll most likely see them camping the paint while the Rockets are in zone.

EDIT: By the way, Looney finished 6th on the Warriors in minutes played that game. He averages 19 minutes per game against the Rockets, up 4 minutes from his season average.

[floppymoose]

Talking heads are saying this was the best playoff path for GSW. But i would much rather they play LAL instead.

[durden_tyler]

Series odds at -200 for Warriors to win. Perhaps no one betting on the Rockets and it hasn't moved yet-- not bad value for a #2 seed, assuming you believe they are a real #2 seed quality.

[Frankie]

One thing I’m hoping for as a dubs fan is that I’m not sure the rockets have another gear to go to.

They play their hearts out in the regular season but don’t think they can really play better than what they showed. Whereas the dubs do have another level to potentially reach in Terms of energy + playoff jimmy.

That’s what I’m hoping anyway!

I would say it's a bit silly to say a young team and constantly improving team doesn't have another gear to go. We haven't seen this core in the playoffs yet. How do we know one of them doesn't have the Playoff Himmy gene in them? This Rockets team is a blank canvas in the playoffs. They could go nuclear and sweep the Warriors, they could fold under the bright lights and get swept or anything in between.

So yeah, it's probably wishful thinking to say Rockets cannot play better than what they've shown.

[Jta444]

Kerr needs to play Kuminga and Kuminga needs to step up for the Warriors to win. He must play the Iguodala role. Kuminga gives them more size and athleticism to match the Rockets. Instead of the old Looney and short/banged up GP2.

Kuminga/Jimmy/Curry/Dray/Moody or Podz

[DB23]

One thing I’m hoping for as a dubs fan is that I’m not sure the rockets have another gear to go to.

They play their hearts out in the regular season but don’t think they can really play better than what they showed. Whereas the dubs do have another level to potentially reach in Terms of energy + playoff jimmy.

That’s what I’m hoping anyway!

I would say it's a bit silly to say a young team and constantly improving team doesn't have another gear to go. We haven't seen this core in the playoffs yet. How do we know one of them doesn't have the Playoff Himmy gene in them? This Rockets team is a blank canvas in the playoffs. They could go nuclear and sweep the Warriors, they could fold under the bright lights and get swept or anything in between.

So yeah, it's probably wishful thinking to say Rockets cannot play better than what they've shown.

I would think the ball is in their court to prove it so don’t think it’s silly at all. Whereas the warriors have shown it in the past, as has jimmy.

I don’t massively see the offensive upside in the rockets so yes I would be surprised if someone breaks out like jimmy in the series. Not to say the rockets can’t win anyway though.

[floppymoose]

You cant use the Memphis game for a lot here. Memphis was a great matchup for Jimmy. The Rockets have the personnel to defend both Steph and Jimmy. I think GSW will win the Sengun minutes, but that may not be enough.

[gmoney411]

One thing I’m hoping for as a dubs fan is that I’m not sure the rockets have another gear to go to.

They play their hearts out in the regular season but don’t think they can really play better than what they showed. Whereas the dubs do have another level to potentially reach in Terms of energy + playoff jimmy.

That’s what I’m hoping anyway!

I would say it's a bit silly to say a young team and constantly improving team doesn't have another gear to go. We haven't seen this core in the playoffs yet. How do we know one of them doesn't have the Playoff Himmy gene in them? This Rockets team is a blank canvas in the playoffs. They could go nuclear and sweep the Warriors, they could fold under the bright lights and get swept or anything in between.

So yeah, it's probably wishful thinking to say Rockets cannot play better than what they've shown.

I would think the ball is in their court to prove it so don’t think it’s silly at all. Whereas the warriors have shown it in the past, as has jimmy.

I don’t massively see the offensive upside in the rockets so yes I would be surprised if someone breaks out like jimmy in the series. Not to say the rockets can’t win anyway though.

The upside for the Rockets is that they finally have a healthy team that can play every night. Tari, Bari, and Adams only played about a third of the season together. They are going to be able to play much harder now that they have a full rotation.

If you don't count the last 3 games were they rested players, 10 of the Rockets 27 losses this season game on the second night of a back to back and they only won 41% of those games.

[xfactor99]

Kerr needs to play Kuminga and Kuminga needs to step up for the Warriors to win. He must play the Iguodala role. Kuminga gives them more size and athleticism to match the Rockets. Instead of the old Looney and short/banged up GP2.

Kuminga/Jimmy/Curry/Dray/Moody or Podz

Kuminga is not going to see the court much, if at all and he is way more Kelly Oubre than Andre Iguodala. Unfortunately he also thinks he is Kobe instead of Kelly Oubre and he is significantly worse defensively than Oubre.

[guynumber45]

Talking heads are saying this was the best playoff path for GSW. But i would much rather they play LAL instead.

Much better to play the Lakers in round 2 when Lebron and Luka may potentially be limping rather than round 1 where they are fresh off a week of rest.

[Impuniti]

If somehow the Warriors can't outplay the Rockets even with the refs carrying them, they'll just injure a key Rockets player instead. It's the Warriors' way.

What players have the Warriors injured when they lost a playoff series? It must be a pretty long list since it's their way when they lose.

[Impuniti]

Warriors in 5.

Rockets have advantages, the main one being rebounding and where they will bully the Warriors down there on several games. They are young, elite defenders and have the guys to put on Steph and Butler.

Their weaknesses is that they have a crappy offense that struggles even more during the last 5 minutes of the game. Add the lack of playoff experience, the Warriors just need to keep it within 2 possessions by the latter end of the game. It would be nice if Podz or Moody showed up consistently enough in the series, but I'm fully expecting them to score 20 or 2 points on a game to game basis. Just can't have both be shooting blanks in the same game, which I suspect will happen in 2 games. Theoretically since Houston will focus so much on the main two guys, these guys should have the opportunity to make a lot of open shots.

This game more than any other series should be something for JK to take advantage of (theoretically). Who knows if Kerr plays him and if he can step up.

[Bornstellar]

Maybe I'm way off but I just can't see the Rockets beating the Warriors. Would love to see Houston knock them out but my gut tells me Dubs in 6

[floppymoose]

Talking heads are saying this was the best playoff path for GSW. But i would much rather they play LAL instead.

Much better to play the Lakers in round 2 when Lebron and Luka may potentially be limping rather than round 1 where they are fresh off a week of rest.

Are Lakers even making it round 2? Are Warriors?

[Harry Palmer]

Kerr’s going to have figured out a way to deal with the double bigs.

Might not work, but there’s no way he just lets it play out as it has been playing out. Aside from X’s and O’s is that imo the most evident weakness atm is Adams conditioning. He’s a lot better than he was earlier, but he’s still being handled with care and if you can make him run constantly his window of effectiveness will correspondingly shrink. Now it might cost you too much trying to get there as simply as I’m implying, but Kerr might use the same weakness but in a less rolling the dice way. I’m looking forward to the coaching matchup almost as much as the players match ups.