Post#296 » by Mrakar » Fri Apr 18, 2025 7:16 am
This will be my official breakdown, keys to the series and predictions.
Nuggets
Murray/Braun/Porter Jr./Gordon/Jokic
Westbrook/Pickett/Strawther/Watson/Jordan(Naji)
Clippers
Harden/Dunn/Powell/Leonard/Zubac
Bogdanovic/Coffey/Jones Jr./Batum/Simmons(Eubanks).
key matchups of the series:
Injuries: Murray(calf/hamstring), Gordon(calf), Leonard(knee), others?
Ofc injuries are always big part of every series, but here it is probably most likley to happen since there are 3 players with lingering injuries. Murray has calf/hamstring problems since championship run, Gordon has been hobbled whole year and didnt look near as explosive as he was. What to say about Kawhi, we were in situations when we are waiting for him to start, just to get a message he is not playing at all. I have to say he looks the best out of 3 in the momment but that can of course change in a second.
Zubac/Jokic faceoff:
We all know there is no stopping Jokic, but the question is, is the Zubac really the best guy to throw at Jokic in whole NBA? He is strong, he is smart, he rebounds well. How much can he really slow down Jokic? If they decide to let him play 1v1 and he gets Jokic to around 58-60 TS% i think its a win for Clippers since the other guys outside of Murray are not making it happen if they are not wide open. Ofc i still think Lue will send double teams of guys like Braun/Westbrook/Watson, but Zubac allows him to not do it all the time. For me more of the question is if Jokic can put him into foul trouble. Jokic usually doesnt get enough calls but i think if he flops a bit he could get it against Zu since he is also big guy and refs see it different then when smaller guys slapp or push him. Is this a Jokic flopper series? For the Nuggets sake i hope it is.
Leonard/Gordon faceoff:
Kawhi Leonard is a guy who, when healthy, is going to do his stuff. Be efficient, get to his spots, bully other guys, just simple be Kawhi Leonard. In this series he is facing probably a guy who is (also if healthy) best suited to guard Kawhi. Kawhi is not fast, but he is abnormaly strong for his size. Gordon can keep up with him but he is also strong as hell and i think he can give him some problems, in the same way Zu can give Jokic problems, not stop him, not slow him down, just bother him enough to be a little bit less efficient then usually. Kawhi is not the guy that hunts switches(or better to say get the switches) a lot, that is why i think we will see this matchup a lot. On the other side, biggest question is ofc if Gordon can hit his shots. He is having best shooting year of his career but is in shooting slump recently. His 3pt shot will be one of the colossal questions of the series.
Harden/Powell vs switches:
We can talk about Harden-Braun or Powell-Braun/Murray matchup but those 2 guys are excellent at hunting their preferred matchups, especially Harden. Can Murray and Porter Jr. stay alive on defense against those guys, and can Jokic avoid being pulled to 3pt line by Harden? Nuggets defense will have to be creative here, and i think Watson will have to play a lot in this series since he is only guy on the Nuggets that navigates around screens successfully. I know Adelman will try Westbrook a lot on those 2 guys(i will write about that later). Porter Jr. is huge, but Harden is to crafy and to fast for him, so that will be disaster for the Nuggets if they allow it to happen. Question is if Porter can at least bother Powell in this matchup since he will probably be on him to start. I really fear for the Nuggets on defense vs Harden/Powell and that is Clippers main advantage in this series.
Murray vs drop:
Zubac plays a lot in the drop by design. Question is if Murray can take advantage of that. Dunn is with Amen Thompson best guy in the NBA to navigate trough screens which will be a problem for not so fast, and potentialy hobbled Murray. Can he get enough seperation to get to the midrange, and can he hit his 3s of the dribble in case Dunn(or Jones jr.) sometimes goes under? In the whole series i think this is the biggets swing factor. If Murray cant be a 25ppg scorrer on solid efficiency, Nuggets are in big trouble.
Westbrook conundrum:
This guy really grinds my gears. He could be such a valuable asset for any team, if he would just dial down on some things. However we know he will not. Nuggets need him on defense in this series. He could be really valuable on Harden and Powell even though he is not great defender. Nuggets just dont have better options. Braun/Watson/Westbrook are their 3 guys to throw at those 2 in this series, and if Westbrook is so bad on offense that he cant be played, its a problem for the Nuggets. I think they need him 10-15 minutes a game, and during that time he needs to limit his braindead plays, especially turnovers and those bank shots. Clippers have a great coach and they know Westbrook, they will let him do whatever he wants since they know that is not efficient enough for playoff basketball. Can Westbrook be smart about it and tone it down, focus on defense?
other stuff:
I didnt focus other stuff, because i think they are less relevant in this series. Clippers have huge bench advantage. Porter Jr. has size advantage on whoever is guarding him but he cant use that since he cant create for himself. Clippers have coaching advantage, even though Lue can be a bit slow to start the series. However he is one of the best coaches in adjusting during the series. Adelman is new coach, and even though he gets praises all around the NBA, being first time HC in toss-up series is hard.
Nuggets keys to the win:
- Limit turnovers - they can be loose with the ball and that cant happen in this series
- hit open 3s - there will be a lot of them for Braun, Gordon and Watson especially
- Murray - this is his series, he needs to get advantage of his matchups. If they win, next series is not for him, OKC will kill him, but this has to be his series
Clippers keys to the win:
- limit Murray - Jokic will get his, rest of the guys outside of Murray are not serious threats. Can they stop Murray?
- hunting weaknesses - Nuggets have a lot of defenders to exploit. Harden and Powell have to be efficient in getting their stuff
- late game excecution - they had troubles in the past, and we know how good were the Nuggets in the clutch over last few years. Can Kawhi get to his spots, is this finally Hardens breaktrough series?
Predictions:
Nuggets have best player, not only in the series but in the world. However his supporting cast had his ups and downs over the years and we saw how it looked when they are up(2023) and when they are down 2024/2025. Home court is an advantage always but especially in the altitude that is why i think if it goes to 7, Nuggets should have it. However i think i will end earlier. Im picking Clippers in 6, mostly because of favourable matchups across the board, far deeper bench and more expirienced coach. I was rooting for the Nuggets whole season, but i just saw too much problems on both sides of the floor, from lack of shooting to atrocious decision making by some players on the offense, or slow feet and not giving everything on every posessions on the defensive end. Of course my predicion is based on the fact that everyone stays healthy. I hope it will be like that and we have a great series. Let the better team win!
