Is the Lottery Rigged?

[BigGargamel]

Cleveland had the worst record in the NBA the year they drafted LeBron. It's not like they moved up 10 spots. You can make a "rigged" case for almost any number one overall pick with enough mental gymnastics. The NBA has a lot of integrity issues but this isn't one. There's no way it would be kept a secret for this long, and the poop would hit the fan if it ever got out that the results are influenced. It's not a thing.

[YogurtProducer]

For transparency, and to squash any notion that there is some kind of predetermined order or "rigging" involved, why not broadcast the process live? Oh, wait... because that'd remove the suspense of the only league who has a separate show to determine the draft order. Can't have that, now can we?

As I said in another post, there's some strange coincidences that have occurred with the draft that give the appearance that they're scripted but in most cases, it doesn't play out that way. The NBA is about entertainment and generating continual revenue, so they're naturally going to want things to go a certain way. Does LeBron James have the same career if he ends up in DEN rather than CLE? No storybook there at all. Does NO not get the first overall after losing Anthony Davis to the Lakers so they can take Williamson?

There's been some seemingly odd and highly speculative moments and that's why people don't necessarily trust their process.

Uhhh the NHL and MLB both also have a show for their draft order.

That was my bad. I'm aware the others have a show as well but since I don't watch those with as much interest, I'm not sure of just how much pomp and build up there is by comparison.

NHL definitely has interest. MLB less tho just due to the nature of MLB prospects being less of a sure thing.

and if the NFL had a lottery you know for sure it would be a massive deal.

[Lenneth]

Early results interesting-2 votes for all 4

Next question: Is the poll rigged?

Yeah, I have the same opinion. It would be impossible to convince 30 owners to rig the draft, when one player can make such a difference to the franchise like how Curry turned 400 mils franchise to 9 billions. And, it's not just 30 owners, since most teams involve multiple majority/minority owners. The secret would be leaked sooner or later, and it has been 40 years since the first lottery. So far, we only have theories. Pretty much all hyped #1 pick went to small market teams like Shaq/Webber to Magic, Davis/Zion to Pelicans, Lebron to Cavs, Oden to Blazers, Duncan/Wemby to Spurs. And, how do you possibly compensate teams that lose the pick? Let's assume Hornets won 2023 lottery and would draft Wemby. Do NBA wire like 200 mils to Hornets? IRS will have a field day on that transaction. A bag of $100 bills? That would be fun. Future picks? Why would I give up on Wemby for an uncertain future picks? Considering all those risks and headaches, it would be far more logical to just go with a current lottery system. I do agree that the first Ewing draft might be rigged.

[Mik317]

its fun to think about but probably not lol.

Them putting Zion in NO when New York was an option shows otherwise...

UNLESS THATS WHAT THEY WANT YOU TO THINK...DUN DUN DUUUUUN

but no seriously you can twist it to prove or disprove your theory either way. My stance against it is that too many clout chasers nowadays that if it was rigged it would have gotten out by now.

[LordCovington33]

To those who say it is rigged, watch the lottery process which is taped (easily found on YouTube) and then explain which part has been rigged.
https://youtu.be/7JjScsTNNaw?si=vHePVKkGvXLHMGoi

For transparency, and to squash any notion that there is some kind of predetermined order or "rigging" involved, why not broadcast the process live? Oh, wait... because that'd remove the suspense of the only league who has a separate show to determine the draft order. Can't have that, now can we?

As I said in another post, there's some strange coincidences that have occurred with the draft that give the appearance that they're scripted but in most cases, it doesn't play out that way. The NBA is about entertainment and generating continual revenue, so they're naturally going to want things to go a certain way. Does LeBron James have the same career if he ends up in DEN rather than CLE? No storybook there at all. Does NO not get the first overall after losing Anthony Davis to the Lakers so they can take Williamson?

There's been some seemingly odd and highly speculative moments and that's why people don't necessarily trust their process.

If you show that live, what’s the point in having the top 14 countdown to number 1? Kills any suspense. Doesn’t make much sense actually. Once the order is revealed from 14 to 1, that taping is immediately available online.

[zshawn10]

I mean if Flagg goes to SA or Dallas, this will heat up.

Not to mention Lebron himself alluded to the lottery being rigged

[james vincent]

I hope not but Dallas has a great chance to win since they lost a generational talent; this reminds me of 2011 for Cleveland but I hope I’m wrong.

[SkyBill40]

To those who say it is rigged, watch the lottery process which is taped (easily found on YouTube) and then explain which part has been rigged.
https://youtu.be/7JjScsTNNaw?si=vHePVKkGvXLHMGoi

For transparency, and to squash any notion that there is some kind of predetermined order or "rigging" involved, why not broadcast the process live? Oh, wait... because that'd remove the suspense of the only league who has a separate show to determine the draft order. Can't have that, now can we?

As I said in another post, there's some strange coincidences that have occurred with the draft that give the appearance that they're scripted but in most cases, it doesn't play out that way. The NBA is about entertainment and generating continual revenue, so they're naturally going to want things to go a certain way. Does LeBron James have the same career if he ends up in DEN rather than CLE? No storybook there at all. Does NO not get the first overall after losing Anthony Davis to the Lakers so they can take Williamson?

There's been some seemingly odd and highly speculative moments and that's why people don't necessarily trust their process.

If you show that live, what’s the point in having the top 14 countdown to number 1? Kills any suspense. Doesn’t make much sense actually. Once the order is revealed from 14 to 1, that taping is immediately available online.

We don't really need suspense. What we need is a feel for legitimacy and a lack of potential malfeasance. That's the point. They can still do the process and show it up to the final point where the order is determined without revealing so it keeps the suspense factor you apparently need.

[life_saver]

After Zion ended up in New Orleans when Knicks also had good chance of landing him, it kinda confirmed for me that the chances of lottery being rigged is extremely extremely low. Sending Zion to Knicks over New Orleans would have been best possible thing for league from business perspective but it didn't happen

[SkyBill40]

After Zion ended up in New Orleans when Knicks also had good chance of landing him, it kinda confirmed for me that the chances of lottery being rigged is extremely extremely low. Sending Zion to Knicks over New Orleans would have been best possible thing for league from business perspective but it didn't happen

The league had to make up for Davis going to LA. They need ALL of their teams to be successful to some degree, not just some or most. It was in their best interest to see that pick land with them even if it doesn't fit the predetermined narrative.

[madmaxmedia]

Early results interesting-2 votes for all 4

Next question: Is the poll rigged?

Yeah, I have the same opinion. It would be impossible to convince 30 owners to rig the draft, when one player can make such a difference to the franchise like how Curry turned 400 mils franchise to 9 billions. And, it's not just 30 owners, since most teams involve multiple majority/minority owners. The secret would be leaked sooner or later, and it has been 40 years since the first lottery. So far, we only have theories. Pretty much all hyped #1 pick went to small market teams like Shaq/Webber to Magic, Davis/Zion to Pelicans, Lebron to Cavs, Oden to Blazers, Duncan/Wemby to Spurs. And, how do you possibly compensate teams that lose the pick? Let's assume Hornets won 2023 lottery and would draft Wemby. Do NBA wire like 200 mils to Hornets? IRS will have a field day on that transaction. A bag of $100 bills? That would be fun. Future picks? Why would I give up on Wemby for an uncertain future picks? Considering all those risks and headaches, it would be far more logical to just go with a current lottery system. I do agree that the first Ewing draft might be rigged.

Another thing is that if there was collusion amongst all the teams, then why even end upon the system they have? They could have kept the old lottery where every non-playoff team gets an equal chance, that would not so heavily favor the least successful franchises and be easier to fix as well. Why even have a supermax contract that is supposed to keep superstars on their original teams, if everyone is colluding to favor the big markets? Why would some teams go on multi-year tank jobs, if they're in on this collusion anyway? The best things would be to take your hush money, and do whatever it takes to field a middling team, and maybe occasionally get lucky. But no way would I as an owner try to win a lottery rigged against me.

I guess the other scenario is that only the actual big market owners and the league knows and is involved? But that starts to get tricky in its own ways.

The best way for the league to ensure big market success is simply to make sure those teams have good ownerships and are steered towards good front offices. That alone will lead to favorable odds of success by most if not all the big markets, as they already have built-in advantage even on a presumably even playing field. Free agency and player empowerment will play out your way. If the NBA wants to NYK to succeed, they start by forcing Dolan out, set him up and blackmail him, whatever. Get one of those big ownership groups that doesn't faff around with dumb petty stuff. TBH Laker ownership situation is not ideal either, have the Buss family sell out majority share to a group with deeper pockets.

I picked 3, mainly because it's still not impossible, just seems really implausible and on the whole unnecessary.

[Red Robot]

I'm between choice 3 and 4. It's not impossible, but I really don't think it's likely.

Mostly because it's just too big of a secret and too many people would have to be in on it. If it ever came out, it wouldn't just be a scandal for one team or player—it would cast a shadow over the entire league and decades of play. The risk just isn't worth the reward.

More than that, the set of "coincidences" people point to feels pretty weak to me. No matter how the lottery shakes out, you can always come up with some narrative for how that outcome benefits the league. When you actually look back over the results, they pretty much look like what you'd expect from a random draw.

[madmaxmedia]

After Zion ended up in New Orleans when Knicks also had good chance of landing him, it kinda confirmed for me that the chances of lottery being rigged is extremely extremely low. Sending Zion to Knicks over New Orleans would have been best possible thing for league from business perspective but it didn't happen

The league had to make up for Davis going to LA. They need ALL of their teams to be successful to some degree, not just some or most. It was in their best interest to see that pick land with them even if it doesn't fit the predetermined narrative.

This is not a pretty apparent example of confirmation bias?

Like if you need all the teams to be somewhat successful to some degree, but want the big market teams be the most successful, literally no cheating is necessary. That's how it will be if you just leave things alone.

At most maybe pull some strings to get bad owners like Dolan out. Have Buss family sell a majority share to Guggenheim Group, Lakers will have the deepest pockets in the league.

[SFour]

The problem is there's a bunch of teams you could spin up a rigged theory if they were to win the #1 pick...Utah, Pelicans, Sixers, Spurs, Dallas....I'm sure there's more like Nets/Bulls/Miami because of their market.

There's always a reason you can think for a bunch of teams.

[Beethoven]

Rigged, not rigged.. I dont care... as long as other team will raise these picks into superstars and then ship them off to Lakers.

[og15]

Why do the Lakers keep getting superstars throughout history?

Clippers play in LA and their history is the complete opposite.

Big markets play a huge role in the business of the NBA. The league needs their big markets to be successful.

The lottery are usually bad teams. It's kind of hard to pick good markets for stars considering the teams picking are generally small market teams.

If I'm a betting man I think Flagg ends up in Chicago or Brooklyn.

As a Clippers team, since the team has actually been trying to win games and then even further since the team has actually gotten a proper owner, the amount of top talent the team has been able to acquire through free agency or players wanting to be traded there has been far beyond 90% of other teams.

This is without any prestige, team legacy, any of that stuff, so yea, I'm not sure about your conclusion here if we add any amount of context.

If your comparison is the Sterling Clippers for 90% of his time there where he didn't even want to resign young players for big contracts and didn't care about winning, I'm not sure why that's even a relevant comparison lol

[madmaxmedia]

Why do the Lakers keep getting superstars throughout history?

Clippers play in LA and their history is the complete opposite.

Big markets play a huge role in the business of the NBA. The league needs their big markets to be successful.

The lottery are usually bad teams. It's kind of hard to pick good markets for stars considering the teams picking are generally small market teams.

If I'm a betting man I think Flagg ends up in Chicago or Brooklyn.

As a Clippers team, since the team has actually been trying to win games and then even further since the team has actually gotten a proper owner, the amount of top talent the team has been able to acquire through free agency or players wanting to be traded there has been far beyond 90% of other teams.

This is without any prestige, team legacy, any of that stuff, so yea, I'm not sure about your conclusion here if we add any amount of context.

If your comparison is the Sterling Clippers for 90% of his time there where he didn't even want to resign young players for big contracts and didn't care about winning, I'm not sure why that's even a relevant comparison lol

And all the league needed to do was to have someone tape a conversation of Donald Sterling being a racist a-hole and outing him, and force him to sell to a better owner with deep pockets. Hmmmm....

[madmaxmedia]

Rigged, not rigged.. I dont care... as long as other team will raise these picks into superstars and then ship them off to Lakers.

You my friend have nothing to worry about. Final poll choice should just be 'Who cares Lakers will win regardless.'

[Effigy]

To those who say it is rigged, watch the lottery process which is taped (easily found on YouTube) and then explain which part has been rigged.
https://youtu.be/7JjScsTNNaw?si=vHePVKkGvXLHMGoi

I don't think anyone thinks last year's crap draft was rigged. Now show me the video for the Yao and Lebron drafts.

[Dadouv47]

I would be surprised if the lottery is rigged for the only reason that teams that tank for years have representatives following the process in a small room every lottery so those guys would be more incompetent than Nico Harrison if they know they have no shot at the first or second pick and are still tanking again and again.