If We Lose Our Pick....

[76ciology]

There’s no way around it, we need to play winning basketball to see how good we really are. It’ll also boost the trade value of our guys so we can move them during the season, ideally before the deadline. It’s a bit like the 2012–2013 season under Doug Collins, when Evan Turner looked like he was turning the corner and Hawes was playing like a 2 way stretch five. We eventually flipped both and went full tank mode to close out the year.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, but IMO we should probably prepare ourselves for it in the event it does happen. Given that we are pretty much locked into the 5th worst record, we have roughly a 64% chance of keeping our pick and a 36% chance of losing it to OKC which while less than the odds of us keeping it is obviously still a very real possibility. Say that we are unlucky enough to lose it, what do you think should happen? Run it back and try to make the playoffs next year? Blow it up sans Maxey, McCain, etc. and tank again? I can't imagine that next year's draft class is projected to be as good as this year's. Plus, it will be tough to unload both Embiid and PG in the offseason. Just getting rid of one will be difficult. I hate to say it, but this lottery may be our one way out of a lengthy decline and rebuild.

2025 looks to be a very weak draft while 2026 looks to be an all-timer. I thought you guys made some good moves and identified solid role players with upside (McCain, Edwards, Bona, Grimes, Butler) to be the supporting casts for your Big Three so it wasn't a complete lost season. If you get to keep your pick I think your best bet is to trade back for multiple later 1st round picks to further bolster your depth. Nets, Spurs and Heat all might want to consolidate and move up to take someone they really want which would allow you to use your picks on guys that are better fits for your roster that should still be on the board later (Murray-Boyles, Fleming, Theiro, Wolf) Honestly, whether you stay or trade back, it obviously comes down to health for George and Embiid and if healthy you'll be one of the favorites.

If a rebuild is more your style and preference than trading Embiid and George plus hoping the pick doesn't convey so you have a 2026 pick in a loaded draft is what you're hoping for. You'd have to take back an awful contract to get rid of George but by doing so you could get a 1st albeit with likely protections. Embiid, if he shows he's healthy would get you a decent haul despite what people think. Maybe a couple 1st plus a couple young players.

Worst case scenario is losing the pick so you don't even get to add a 1st round talent, running it back, have awful health and are a pretender leaving you with a pick in the late teens for the 2026 draft. Because missing out on the studs that will comprise the top 10 if you're finally ready to rebuild by that time would suck.

[the_process]

Poll on the GB today: is the lottery rigged?

[SixthStreet]

Poll on the GB today: is the lottery rigged?

I'll decide in a couple weeks.

[Butter]

Any interest in a pick swap with Portland?

Something like:

Shaedon Sharp / Player picked at #10
for
Kelley Oubre / Player picked @ #5

[Stanford]

Any interest in a pick swap with Portland?

Something like:

Shaedon Sharp / Player picked at #10
for
Kelley Oubre / Player picked @ #5

Obviously, yes

[the_process]

Any interest in a pick swap with Portland?

Something like:

Shaedon Sharp / Player picked at #10
for
Kelly Oubre / Player picked @ #5

I would do that.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Any interest in a pick swap with Portland?

Something like:

Shaedon Sharp / Player picked at #10
for
Kelley Oubre / Player picked @ #5

Absolutely yes, but why would Portland give up on Sharpe this early? They'd only be moving up five spots assuming we're picking 5th. Unless they're super high on Ace Bailey or Queen. Really don't see them doing this because the player that fits for them and the player they need (Colin Murray-Boyles) may actually be there when they pick.

[JordanMars]

There’s no way around it, we need to play winning basketball to see how good we really are. It’ll also boost the trade value of our guys so we can move them during the season, ideally before the deadline. It’s a bit like the 2012–2013 season under Doug Collins, when Evan Turner looked like he was turning the corner and Hawes was playing like a 2 way stretch five. We eventually flipped both and went full tank mode to close out the year.

not even close to the same situation…

[Butter]

Any interest in a pick swap with Portland?

Something like:

Shaedon Sharp / Player picked at #10
for
Kelley Oubre / Player picked @ #5

Absolutely yes, but why would Portland give up on Sharpe this early? They'd only be moving up five spots assuming we're picking 5th. Unless they're super high on Ace Bailey or Queen. Really don't see them doing this because the player that fits for them and the player they need (Colin Murray-Boyles) may actually be there when they pick.

My critical gap is that I don't K ow much about Oubre. I mainly grabbed a matching salary.

The Blazers do need an enfusion of perimeter shooting to balance out their roster, especially if they are going with Scoot over Ant at PG. If Ace falls, great. If not, I'm targeting Trey Johnson.

Shaedon is a dominant player, it's not that I am trying to dump him. It's like I said, looking for options to balance our the Blazers.

[Mik317]

Oubre has a player option, no?

[babyjax13]

2026 is projected to be a better draft by 2025 by a reasonable margin. Doesn't mean things will change when kids hit college, but this has been the best group of U18 and under US players on a long time. Dybantsa and Peterson look like #1 pick caliber prospect, and Cam Boozer would be a worthy #2 pick on most drafts. Some other really interesting guys too, but this draft looks deeper in potential all-NBA caliber players (always a large caveat in that we haven't seen them at the next level yet).

[SixthStreet]

Yup, I think my wished outcome, in order would be 1, 2, 7, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Clearing the deck of the OKC obligation lets us really tank next year from the outset if Embiid is toast physically in a much better draft.

[Negrodamus]

We’re not going to suck enough to be a top ten pick next year with a healthy Maxey, PG, McCain, likely Oubre, Grimes, Yabu. And you know Morey is going to seek out contending players. Absolutely no one in that building wants to tank.

[Stanford]

We’re not going to suck enough to be a top ten pick next year with a healthy Maxey, PG, McCain, likely Oubre, Grimes, Yabu. And you know Morey is going to seek out contending players. Absolutely no one in that building wants to tank.

Agreed, we've got to get that pick.

[Embiid P]

Yup, I think my wished outcome, in order would be 1, 2, 7, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Clearing the deck of the OKC obligation lets us really tank next year from the outset if Embiid is toast physically in a much better draft.

Disagree. As others have stated, us landing a top ten pick next year is highly unlikely. Plus, if we keep our pick and we fail to land Flagg or Harper (presumably the two best prospects in this draft), we can always package the pick (would have to be a draft night trade or later) with PG to move his albatross of a contract for better-fitting pieces and/or acquire a young prospect i.e. Sharpe with star potential and a few years' experience under his belt. Losing the pick means we get nothing (no player or trade asset), and will likely keep us a treadmill team for the foreseeable future barring a trade of Embiid and PG both of whose trade value will likely continue to decline.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Yeah this isn't just getting OKC off our back. Keeping this pick is very important for both the present and the future. Assuming OKC does take our pick, we're not looking at the epic collapse we were all just witnessed to. At the very worst we're play-in material. Either way we owe OKC a first. I'd rather it be a mid to late first rounder next year as opposed to top 7 this year. I don't think we'll be bad enough to even be in the lotto conversation next year. That is unless **** falls completely apart again.

[Foshan]

Yeah this isn't just getting OKC off our back. Keeping this pick is very important for both the present and the future. Assuming OKC does take our pick, we're not looking at the epic collapse we were all just witnessed to. At the very worst we're play-in material. Either way we owe OKC a first. I'd rather it be a mid to late first rounder next year as opposed to top 7 this year. I don't think we'll be bad enough to even be in the lotto conversation next year. That is unless **** falls completely apart again.

agreed. it would be hard to see us this high again next year, unless Embiid gets a surgery and is out the year (declared in advance), so we make some crappy roster moves.

[sixerswillrule]

I don't like those odds

Before the lottery changes 5th worst remaining top 6 must've been like 90%

[ivysixer2000]

Hmm y’all are thinking about the same long term issues I am, but I’m wondering why so much depends on whether or not we keep the pick? If it’s #4 or 5 we’ll get some nice upside player who probably won’t be legit good for a few years, if he ever is. That doesn’t impact the other stuff much.

Are people just saying it’d be a lot easier to think rebuild with another young guy? Or that vibes would be so trash if we lost the pick that we’d have to blow things up? Something else?

If we lose the pick and run it back another season with no new hope, then it falls on McCain. Is he ready for that....probably not.

I figure if Jojo ain't ready (a man can hope), we will have to blow things up anyway. Currently constructed, this team will not win anything at all without Jojo and I don't figure he will be the same ever again other than scoring.

Only hope I have is young legs out of this draft to actually get a damn rebound or be dominant somewhere else on the court. At #5 I don't see that player, but earlier, I can see that.

We might lose this pick, but its more about perception of losing hope for the foreseeable future. We lose the pick, and this team will be looking at lottery balls for a long time.

That’s what I mean—what ‘falls on McCain’? Team leadership next year will fall 100% on Maxey/Embiid/PG, McCain probably won’t even start next year unless it’s a lost season again, and whatever happens he’s definitely not leading us to title contention. That’s a joke. Same for whoever is our pick, except with even lower expectations.

If next season is another disaster for Embiid/PG it will suck less if we have a prospect around but that won’t get us out of the long term bind we’re in.

This is not what I mean by my above statement. II meant if we lose our pick, then McCain was our real youth on this team currently as I don't trust any of our JAGs to develop.