Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan

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f4p
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan 

Post#101 » by f4p » Thu Mar 27, 2025 9:38 pm

therealbig3 wrote:I mean, I know Shaq gets the lion's share of credit for the 3-peat Lakers, while Kobe gets relegated to being second option, but I think in 01 specifically, there's a really strong case to be made that Kobe was their best player during that playoff run.


there is, but that would be separate from duncan being as good as shaq.

For example, the Lakers actually did better offensively in those playoffs (by a lot) in the Kobe on/Shaq off minutes than vice versa. Shaq's on/off in those playoffs was actually a negative, and that was because the Lakers played a lot worse offensively with him on the court. Small sample size noise, strategy, rotations, sure,


just to add context.

in the 4 years before this, shaq's on/off in the playoffs was:

+17.7
+11.6
+14.7
+22.9

and in the 3 years after it was:

+22.9
+11.8
+25.3

so amazing numbers. and of course in 2001, shaq was a 30/15 player who played 42 minutes a game for possibly the best playoff team ever and he had a sparkling +13.8 "on" net rating. so about as dominant as one can be. so it certainly seems unlikely that, in the very season the lakers went up several levels, that they did it with shaq going down several levels in impact while playing 88% of the team's minutes. not that you are saying that, but to just point out what an outlier the -0.3 is and why it probably means nothing (that would be quite an anchor around a team that somehow reached "greatest ever" status). the -0.3 is smooshed in the middle of 7 surrounding years that all agree on massive impact.

and just to add why it really means almost nothing. shaq didn't play 97 minutes in the playoffs. and the lakers were indeed +26 without him for a +14.1 per 100. but 19 of those 26 points were from the 4th quarters of games 3 and 4 against the spurs, where i believe the margin was never below 20 and was usually trending towards 30 or 40. in other words, uber garbage time. the lakers outscored the spurs by 19 points in just 18 minutes without shaq. so 75% of shaq's off margin is from there. without that, his net "off" is more like +4.8 (what you would expect for a "best ever" team without their star) and his on/off is a more typical +9.0 and in line with everything else we can see from that 8 year stretch (and i checked similar garbage time in other games and it was breakeven from what i saw).
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan 

Post#102 » by OhayoKD » Thu Mar 27, 2025 9:47 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
Primedeion wrote:2001 RAPM (RS+PS):
Bryant: 4.39 (#3 in the league)
Shaq: 4.37 (#4 in the league)
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/11181n4avq5wefk/AABLySVPmcZXb0uiGPEk53fpa/2001.txt?dl=0

Kobe should have been in the top 2. Best postseason performer/player on the best postseason ever, and phenomenal in the RS.

1) Kobe is 3rd in RAPM. If that's the metric we should use, why does he deserve to be top 2 based on it?
2) Where would Kobe rank in RAPM other years?

This feels like an extremely selective use of a stat.

It's 2025 and people still don't get that RAPM is a rate-stat.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan 

Post#103 » by OhayoKD » Thu Mar 27, 2025 9:57 pm

f4p wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:I mean, I know Shaq gets the lion's share of credit for the 3-peat Lakers, while Kobe gets relegated to being second option, but I think in 01 specifically, there's a really strong case to be made that Kobe was their best player during that playoff run.


there is, but that would be separate from duncan being as good as shaq.

For example, the Lakers actually did better offensively in those playoffs (by a lot) in the Kobe on/Shaq off minutes than vice versa. Shaq's on/off in those playoffs was actually a negative, and that was because the Lakers played a lot worse offensively with him on the court. Small sample size noise, strategy, rotations, sure,


just to add context.

in the 4 years before this, shaq's on/off in the playoffs was:

+17.7
+11.6
+14.7
+22.9

and in the 3 years after it was:

+22.9
+11.8
+25.3

so amazing numbers. and of course in 2001, shaq was a 30/15 player who played 42 minutes a game for possibly the best playoff team ever and he had a sparkling +13.8 "on" net rating. so about as dominant as one can be. so it certainly seems unlikely that, in the very season the lakers went up several levels, that they did it with shaq going down several levels in impact while playing 88% of the team's minutes. not that you are saying that, but to just point out what an outlier the -0.3 is and why it probably means nothing (that would be quite an anchor around a team that somehow reached "greatest ever" status). the -0.3 is smooshed in the middle of 7 surrounding years that all agree on massive impact.

and just to add why it really means almost nothing. shaq didn't play 97 minutes in the playoffs. and the lakers were indeed +26 without him for a +14.1 per 100. but 19 of those 26 points were from the 4th quarters of games 3 and 4 against the spurs, where i believe the margin was never below 20 and was usually trending towards 30 or 40. in other words, uber garbage time. the lakers outscored the spurs by 19 points in just 18 minutes without shaq. so 75% of shaq's off margin is from there. without that, his net "off" is more like +4.8 (what you would expect for a "best ever" team without their star) and his on/off is a more typical +9.0 and in line with everything else we can see from that 8 year stretch (and i checked similar garbage time in other games and it was breakeven from what i saw).

No way you forced a page-turn to yap about on/off again
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan 

Post#104 » by f4p » Fri Mar 28, 2025 1:01 am

OhayoKD wrote:No way you forced a page-turn to yap about on/off again



ever the statesman.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan 

Post#105 » by OhayoKD » Fri Mar 28, 2025 1:17 am

f4p wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:No way you forced a page-turn to yap about on/off again



ever the statesman.

Speaking pc-board-ese gets boring from time to time
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan 

Post#106 » by ShotCreator » Sat Apr 19, 2025 4:16 pm

Going through these RPOYs, and Kobe being rated higher than Ray Allen on OPOY ballots is insanity to me.

Kobe was worse everywhere offensively. Even in the playoffs. I think Ray was closer to being OPOY over Shaq than being below Kobe.
Swinging for the fences.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2000-01 UPDATE — Shaq/Duncan 

Post#107 » by DorianRo » Sat Apr 19, 2025 7:39 pm

oh jeesh.. The only player I would put above 2000-2001 Shaq is 91-92 Jordan. This is no contest Shaq

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